The Truth about Smuggling/Shadow Delivery missions! Actual stats, incomes and conclusions!

Smuggling Missions - Objective Breakdown

Having tried to look at both sides of the smuggling/shadow deliveries row I’ve come to the conclusion that there’s very little hard evidence, most of it is anecdotal and the numbers thrown around are pretty varied.

I had thought I’d give it a go since smuggling is one of the few things I’ve not actually tried in this game but I thought I’d get some stats.

First off I’d like to say I’m not a ‘expert’ player, I’ve done lots of stuff, I was one of the first to report the only way to make gold at exploration (neutron star bonging near the core), I’ve created a huge (normal not rare) trade run and run a competition to complete it. I’m currently Expert/Entrepreneur/Explorer with around 390mil in assets.

Ok so first off we have to figure out how long a smuggling run takes.


1). Getting to your chosen long range hub : 20 Minutes (average time assuming coming from around 340 ly in a smuggling ASP.
http://coriolis.io/outfit/asp/05A5A5A4D4A5D5C1818181818180000020205f5B4f3f324-.Iw18WQ==.Aw18WQ==

2). Getting the missions stacked up :
Below i’ve listed the two different ways of getting missions and tried 30+ times to get missions and came up with averages.

3). Getting back to the drop off area : 25 minutes (6 missions stacked) 30 minutes (12 missions stacked)

On the way back you ARE going to be chased, interdicted and will have to evade this, additionally some of the NPC’s cheat so you cant evade Interdiction and run and/or on multiple occasions I’ve jumpted into a system and been insta-interdicted and pulled into the sun and had to sit out a long FSD cooldown. Additionally shorter jumps due to load increased.

4). Dropping off the missions, the time spent on this can vary depending on how far you have to go, number of jumps between, LS to the station, number of times you are chain interdicted by pirates and/or authorities.
These times are based on my experience :
(Including time in station and picking the next destination)

Minimum Time (No interdictions, short jump, low ls) : 5 minutes station to station
Maximum Time (2-3 jumps, interdicted multiple times by larger ship you cant evade/kill 5k+ Ls) : 14.5 minutes

On average over 2 runs the time per drop off for me was 10 minutes. Your milage may vary but I think this is probably quite fair. Increasing the number of missions seems to increase the amount of interdictions, additionally as you drop missions you also seem to get less. Therefore I’d say that the following would be quite fair :

10mins/drop for 6 missions stacked.
12.5mins/drop for 12 missions stacked.

Note that this is for the average to above average player. It *may* be possible to exceed these figures by pulling every trick in the book (including pulling the plug to avoid scans etc) but I’d consider that top 1% the exception.

Mission Stacking (logon/logoff)

After a sample of approx 30 logon/logoff I came to the conclusion that :

Entrepreneur and below : Many of the missions are larger cargos, for less reward and it takes much longer to get the ‘good’ missions for 5 tons or less for 4mil reward.

Tycoon : Not much of an improvement but occasional 5mil / 5 ton missions improve matters a little.

Elite : Many many more missions for 5tons or less for 5-6mil reward, often going to outposts and occasionally going to the same station multiple times.

This gives the following times :

(To Station) + (Picking up Missions) + (From Station) + (Delivering Cargo) in minutes

6 Missions Stacked :
Entrepreneur :
20 + 20 + 25 + 60 = 125 for 21mil Credits Reward = 10.08mil/hour

Tycoon:
20 + 15 + 25 + 60 = 120mins for 24mil Credits Reward = 12mil/hour

Elite:
20 + 8 + 25 + 60 = 113mins for 32mil Credits Reward = 16.9mil/Hour


12 Missions Stacked :
Entrepreneur: (takes longer as you have to cherrypick the smaller loads with higher payouts)
20 + 60 + 30 + 150 = 260 mins for 46mil Credits Reward = 10.6mil/hour
Tycoon: (same slight improvement due to a few tycoon only missions)
20 + 45 + 30 + 150 = 245 mins for 52mil Credits Reward = 12.7mil/hour
Elite:
20 + 22 + 30 + 150 = 222 mins for 66mil Credits Reward = 17.8mil/hour


Stacking multiple missions to the same stations could (possibly) further increase profits however the time taken to find the missions may negate the benefits.

Non-Logoff/Logon Mission stacking:

For those that don't like the logon/logoff stacking method i’ve determined the following :

BB Refresh is 5 minutes and it’s reasonable for a person to sit around waiting for some missions for 15 minutes. In that time they will get a number of sub-optimal missions + they can also take other mission types.

Example (taken from some random samples)
4 : Shadow Deliveries (1x4mil 1x2mil 2x1mil)
2: Secret Delivery missions (1.25mil)
1: Standard delivery mission (2mil)

Total of 11.25mil

With such a low number of missions interdictions are much lower, hence times are quicker.

Time:
20+15+20 + 60 = 11.25 mil in 115 minutes = 5.86mil / Hour (much higher variance due to randomness of missions being picked).


Conclusions:

The payout for these missions is high, but not ridiculously high. If you consider that with the cheating NPC’s scanning you or just bad luck then you could lose an entire load (approx 50-60mins work easily) if you only ever got caught 1 in 6 times then the 6 mission stacks would be reduced to 9.3mil/hour etc. Arguing minor points about my numbers wont massively increase or decrease the income.


Counter Offer NPC’s
The constant repetitive messages from npc’s to get you to switch to ridiculous counter offers needs looking at. If nothing else but to make it less immersion breaking.

Suggestion: Make them give up if you keep going a few times, or spread them out over the route. Also improve the counter offers so we might actually want to take them.

Police Scans:
Impossible to submit Interdictions from police NPC’s actually make sense. They should have superior interdictors that can do this sometimes.


Gaining Missions
Logon/Logoff to get the missions from the bulletin boards is also immersion breaking but the only way to get a decent amount of missions in a reasonable amount of time. To get a stack of 6 missions would take 1.5hours plus if waiting on the station for them to refresh. x
Suggestion : Fix the logon/logoff for missions so you cant do that.. but add a refresh button with a 1 minute cooldown.

Other Suggestions:
Add half size scan slowing cargo racks that double the time to finish a scan, but can't carry as much.
eg. 6E Titanium Weave Cargo Hold (32ton)

Finally
This is one of the most fun things you can do in elite, it actually makes you feel like han solo running illegal cargo. Frontier please don't Nerf it into the ground and remove something that actually works and is cool.
 
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Good thread. Rep'd. This mirrors the Cr/Hr rates that I've been seeing running these pretty much exactly. Entrepreneur rank, running $10million/hr average.
 
Should change the title. You said yourself you are a bad/inexperienced smuggler so the amount YOU can make from it will vary wildly from people who actually understand how all the mechanics work.
 
Should change the title. You said yourself you are a bad/inexperienced smuggler so the amount YOU can make from it will vary wildly from people who actually understand how all the mechanics work.

I never said I was a bad/inexperienced smuggler, I've read all the threads, I know how to avoid interdictions (Aiming my ass at the sun to pull interdictors into the sun or a planet or whatever, coming in to face the slot every time). I've made 100mil smuggling in the last 3 days. Like I said in the original thread there will be min/maxers that *may* (tbc) be able to pull in more, I'd like to see figures from an elite smuggler with timings to compare against. However it would have to be honest feedback over multiple runs.

Additionally.. what happens with bad/inexperienced smugglers is they get caught and lose their missions. I've deliberately left that out and only included how I think that would affect the final numbers. Picking up missions and flying from station to station is pretty unaffected by skill.
 
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Just some anecdotal testimony from my friend/wingmate, who only has a cobra, low trade rank, and <5Million in assets.

I told him about these missions to see if he could imitate the results that everyone seems so afraid that "lesser" players will be able to achieve.


He's done four runs, and made about 1 million. None of the shadow delivery missions were available to him. Just the legitimate long-haul cargo missions. He has enough cargo space to take one mission at a time. He's been successful twice, and failed twice. Two half-million Cr missions completed, two failed. All this was done over 4 days.
 
I don't think experience change the speed at which you do the missions, assuming same trade rank as :
traveling speed is that same no matter how experienced you are. Same for stacking missions. Same for getting back. And same for doing the deliveries.

The only difference is that an experienced smuggler is less likely to get caught. So, more profit for him when averaged on several runs.
 
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Should change the title. You said yourself you are a bad/inexperienced smuggler so the amount YOU can make from it will vary wildly from people who actually understand how all the mechanics work.

Then can you or someone "who actually understand how all the mechanics work" repeat the experiment and give some real data?
 
Sat in Robigo now switching between the three modes. In the last 35 minutes all I've had is 4 missions (27 tons).

I even came right out of the game, closed window and went back in... same missions.

Really, really slow getting anything tonight (elite trader)...
 
Then can you or someone "who actually understand how all the mechanics work" repeat the experiment and give some real data?

To better explain how I did this i took each individual task involved in completing one of these missions and timed multiple attempts of those parts and then used that to build the data. This removes as much randomness and 'skill' from the numbers as possible and tries to boil it down to an average value. It may be better for some than others depending on the RNG gods, someone may have a blinding 60mil/hour run because they picked up all the missions in two or three logins, never got interdicted and all the missions went to one station (Unlikely!). Someone else may sit in the station trying to pick up missions for ages, be interdicted a million times and result in 8mil/hour or less. However what you want is not these once in a 1000 times runs but the average. What you will return over the long run.
 
To better explain how I did this i took each individual task involved in completing one of these missions and timed multiple attempts of those parts and then used that to build the data. This removes as much randomness and 'skill' from the numbers as possible and tries to boil it down to an average value. It may be better for some than others depending on the RNG gods, someone may have a blinding 60mil/hour run because they picked up all the missions in two or three logins, never got interdicted and all the missions went to one station (Unlikely!). Someone else may sit in the station trying to pick up missions for ages, be interdicted a million times and result in 8mil/hour or less. However what you want is not these once in a 1000 times runs but the average. What you will return over the long run.

I trust your data, it fits well with my own, albeit not as detailed and rigorously collected. My response was specifically to the gentleman who questioned your data. He seems to suggest that it is wrong, so I would like to see his own data that disagrees with yours.
 
This is great analysis and matches up pretty closely with my own. I only started playing ED recently, but I started running Robigo missions when I heard about the profits (and then kept doing them because I find it quite fun). After multiple runs with both a Cobra MK3 and then Asp Explorer, measuring the time and money earned for each one, the most profit I've made has been about 12.5mCR/hr, while averaging about 2.5 hours for every round trip. That's with 72 tons cargo in the Asp at Broker level and Allied status with the Robigo Cartel. I'm usually able to stack 10-12 missions at a time.

I can see how I could increase those profits, but I'm not sure I could do so very much. I could be choosier about what I stack to fit more missions with my cargo capacity, but that means spending more time refreshing the BB. As I go up in trade rank, I'll obviously have access to more lucrative missions, but even at broker level I'm getting >4mCR missions. Tycoon level will see 6mCR missions, but it's not like those will be the only missions I pick up (again, a function of how long I want to wait at Robigo refreshing the BB). Perhaps using an Imperial Clipper/Cutter would lead to higher profits, since they retain speed and jump range while giving much larger cargo capacity, but there are barriers to those ships that I won't be overcoming for a long time.
 
Should change the title. You said yourself you are a bad/inexperienced smuggler so the amount YOU can make from it will vary wildly from people who actually understand how all the mechanics work.

And there it very much is. Just finished two runs now. Made 86m on them. Spent 4 hours. So for me, 21.5m per hour. And I don't get caught anymore (once you got it all figured out, the risk drops a LOT, not to zero, but one in ten perhaps).

Sorry, but this is too good. It's bloody good fun though, so I wish they would tweak rather than nerf into oblivion....

This is not about "WHY DO YOU WANT ME TO NOT MAKE MONEY???". We're playing this game together. This is the same story as the rares glitch (anyone remember that?) that lasted a few days before the devs fixed it.

By the way, this is Robigo for me right now:
Screenshot_0073.png
 
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And there it very much is. Just finished two runs now. Made 86m on them. Spent 4 hours. So for me, 21.5m per hour. And I don't get caught anymore (once you got it all figured out, the risk drops a LOT, not to zero, but one in ten perhaps).

Sorry, but this is too good. It's bloody good fun though, so I wish they would tweak rather than nerf into oblivion....

This is not about "WHY DO YOU WANT ME TO NOT MAKE MONEY???". We're playing this game together. This is the same story as the rares glitch (anyone remember that?) that lasted a few days before the devs fixed it.

By the way, this is Robigo for me right now:
View attachment 93148

By the looks of it that's four missions that would be avaliable/worth while to me (The 4Million shadow missions).

The 5 millions, I'm assuming, is a Tycoon or Elite ranked mission.


Looks like what I usually see on a good spawn then. I'd take those four, come back in ten minutes, and the board will be empty/maybe have one.

- - - - - Additional Content Posted / Auto Merge - - - - -

What exactly have you figured out to drop the risk?
Sit with the ass end of the ship towards a star whilst scooping with throttle at zero and many of the mission-spawned NPC's will E-drop into the star's low orbit, leaving you free from the threat of interdiction for that system's instance.

Targeting security ships and deploying hard points to interrupt scans.


Fast/smooth landing procedures.





Like most things in this game it is about mastering a certain procedure.
 
I ran these in an Asp that was capable of doing the whole run on a tank of fuel, and of destroying the ships that interdicted it.
The return journey has no risk at all, it's just travel time. The journey loaded up you need only pay attention for a few seconds if you're interdicted, or when landing.
Other than that you can do it all in cruise control.

It's criminal but there is no risk of death, and there is no serious consequence to failing the mission. I failed a couple of batches because I didn't even try to stop the police scanning me. Still ended up ally with the criminals in no time.

Meanwhile, combat in an equivalent value ship requires constant attention, there's a genuine risk, and just getting bad spawns can still cost you profits - which are a fraction of those from trivial smuggling runs, at best.
 
thanks for the great post! well written and tested (yes, i'd argue about some numbers :D .... but it meets my experience (non-mode-switching) quite well. also thanks for mentioning the fun + the amount of time you need to have at some point. i can pull off such a session only sometimes at a weekend.
 
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