So basically thinking about the technologies available in each game, and the state of the galaxy in each game, it seems most logical to me that the chronology is as follows:
Frontier
Dangerous
Elite
This leaves first encounters the odd one out. I haven't played that one so I can't say if it would fit into this scheme. Depending on the storyline it could still work, or not.
Frontier
- There are no aliens of any kind.
- Ships rely on constant acceleration and some kind of hypersleep to get around.
- Hyperjumps are very inaccurate, dumping you far from the star. Misjumps occur regularly.
Dangerous
- We are about to encounter the hitherto unknown thargoids.
- Faster than light travel has been invented.
- Hyperjumps are somewhat accurate, putting you consistently near the star. Misjumps are not generally seen.
Elite
- The galaxy is full of all sorts of aliens. Several galaxies have been discovered. A full scale war with the thargoids is ongoing across known space.
- The space-skip/torus drive seems reminiscent of the FSD.
- Hyperjumps are extremely accurate, putting you right near any given target planet. Misjumps are forced by thargoids.
This leaves first encounters the odd one out. I haven't played that one so I can't say if it would fit into this scheme. Depending on the storyline it could still work, or not.