General / Off-Topic What if we are the first?

[Adept]

Just like the Fermi paradox that argument can be turned around.

Imagine if a civilization had sprung up on this planet 100 million years ago. Let's say some dinos developed brain power and invented rudimentary technology. However much you like. Whether using caves as homes and using fire to cook, all the way through to the invention of the steam engine.

Is it conceivable that we wouldn't find traces of their activity in the fossil record?

And let's say humans go extinct very soon. Then imagine a hyper intelligent species of squid rising up and becoming the planets foremost species. Is it conceivable that they themselves wouldn't find traces of humans as they dig through the future earth?

If their civ was anything like ours we'd know. Our impact on the biosphere and climate is massive, and will leave a huge evidence in the fossil record, the sediments and so forth.

I really don't see how you fan look at the maths of the situation and feel that it it's in any way likely that Humans are the first, let alone the only technological civilization in the entire universe. Even if you meant just the Milky Way, it's still pretty ludicrous IMO. Effectively alone, sure, but now unique.

 

[Talarin]

Let's put it this way: someone has to be first. Sure it's very improbable, but it's not impossible.

I'd imagine that the chain of events that lead to intelligence, let alone tool bearing intelligence, let alone one capable (and desiring) of emitting radio signals that we'd detect would be extraordinarily rare. Imagine for a moment that mankind never rose in the way we did, remaining as base apes instead. How likely does it seem that another civilisation like ours would have arisen? Instinctively I'd say "not likely at all".

Edit: Sorry, never actually made my point - What if the chances of intelligence life as we think of it are far smaller than we think?

 

[Arry]

Let's put it this way: someone has to be first. Sure it's very improbable, but it's not impossible.

I'd imagine that the chain of events that lead to intelligence, let alone tool bearing intelligence, let alone one capable (and desiring) of emitting radio signals that we'd detect would be extraordinarily rare.

Imagine for a moment that mankind never rose in the way we did, remaining as base apes instead. How likely does it seem that another civilisation like ours would have arisen? Instinctively I'd say "not likely at all".

Intelligence is not the issue, nor is the use of tools. We have many intelligent species on this planet and a few that use tools. The use and creation of fire, is our advantage. It makes us more competitive and safer than we would be without it, the human use of fire, will always put us apart from the other beasts.

 

[Adept]

Let's put it this way: someone has to be first. Sure it's very improbable, but it's not impossible.

I'd imagine that the chain of events that lead to intelligence, let alone tool bearing intelligence, let alone one capable (and desiring) of emitting radio signals that we'd detect would be extraordinarily rare. Imagine for a moment that mankind never rose in the way we did, remaining as base apes instead. How likely does it seem that another civilisation like ours would have arisen? Instinctively I'd say "not likely at all".

Edit: Sorry, never actually made my point - What if the chances of intelligence life as we think of it are far smaller than we think?

I think Elite may have failed to teach you about the scale of Milky Way. For the timescale you need to do some reading.

We are not blinking in wonder at a young galaxy. It's been here for a long time, and chemistry like ours will not be that rare.

 

[Minonian]

We are not blinking in wonder at a young galaxy. It's been here for a long time, and chemistry like ours will not be that rare.

Yep. And evidences suggest it's also happened in mars. And if it's can happen two planets in the same solar system? Than life can't be that rare.

http://blog.everythingdinosaur.co.uk/blog/_archives/2009/12/01/4394254.html

In a continuation of research started by NASA thirteen years ago, a new paper published in the scientific journal Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta, the journal of the Geochemical and Meteoritic Society, details the results of high resolution electron microscope analysis that indicates the presence of fossilised ancient microbial life on a meteorite from Mars. The original NASA team that studied evidence of fossils on the small meteorite, feel vindicated by this new research.

 

[Talarin]

I'm not saying life is rare.

I'm saying advanced life is. It's not impossible that we are first. It's also not impossible that we're the only one that will ever arise in our Galaxy.

It's just very improbable.

Fermi Paradox comes to play again. In a relatively mature Galaxy, why aren't we seeing evidence of someone else?

 

[winterknight]

There is a group of scientists that think that the OP might be on the right track. It was reported in the Washington Post earlier this month.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...rning-mix_mm-story-f-duplicate:homepage/story

If you grade earthlings on a cosmic curve, as recently hashed out by Harvard and Oxford University astrophysicists, we’re at the head of the class.

So says a team of astronomers in a new study, to be published in the Journal of Cosmology and Astroparticle Physics. The researchers calculated the probability that life as we know it should exist at any given point in the universe. Based on their assumptions, Earthly life is quite likely premature.
“If you ask, ‘When is life most likely to emerge?’ you might naively say, ‘Now,'” according to Avi Loeb, a scientist at Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics and lead author of the new study, in a news release. “But we find that the chance of life grows much higher in the distant future.”
Should you enjoy hearing that you are exceptional, this scientific narrative might give you a warm fuzzy feeling: By the standards of the universe, humans are some of the earliest intelligent life around. You may have heard of ancient aliens on basic cable television. But, according to cosmic probability, the ancient aliens are us.

 

[Ozram]

There is a group of scientists that think that the OP might be on the right track. It was reported in the Washington Post earlier this month.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...rning-mix_mm-story-f-duplicate:homepage/story

Before taking any of this too seriously, don't forget this is the same institution that brought us George Bush Jr. It also brought forth a debunked economic theory still plaguing us called austerity.

 

[Talarin]

Before taking any of this too seriously, don't forget this is the same institution that brought us George Bush Jr. It also brought forth a debunked economic theory still plaguing us called austerity.

What, the Journal of Cosmology and Astroparticle Physics or the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics?

Slightly different tack on the same question (what if we're first): Does anyone know how sensitive the radio telescopes we use to scan stars actually are? If an alien civilisation were in Proxima Centuri right now, how sensitive would their equipment have to be in order to distinguish our emissions from that of our star?

When I did the maths on signal strength it seemed well beyond what I would consider our technological capabilities to be, but others seem very certain that if technologic life were nearby we would have detected them. So I'm wondering what I'm missing...

 

[winterknight]

What, the Journal of Cosmology and Astroparticle Physics or the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics?

Slightly different tack on the same question (what if we're first): Does anyone know how sensitive the radio telescopes we use to scan stars actually are? If an alien civilisation were in Proxima Centuri right now, how sensitive would their equipment have to be in order to distinguish our emissions from that of our star?

When I did the maths on signal strength it seemed well beyond what I would consider our technological capabilities to be, but others seem very certain that if technologic life were nearby we would have detected them. So I'm wondering what I'm missing...

If the transmissions are slow on/off, think morse code, up to about 1500LY. Single voice channel amplitude modulation maybe 300LY, complex signals probably less than 100LY.

 

[Ozram]

What, the Journal of Cosmology and Astroparticle Physics or the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics?

Slightly different tack on the same question (what if we're first): Does anyone know how sensitive the radio telescopes we use to scan stars actually are? If an alien civilisation were in Proxima Centuri right now, how sensitive would their equipment have to be in order to distinguish our emissions from that of our star?

When I did the maths on signal strength it seemed well beyond what I would consider our technological capabilities to be, but others seem very certain that if technologic life were nearby we would have detected them. So I'm wondering what I'm missing...

My only point is they don't know either. The universe is big and we barely understand or have seen anything so an educated guess here is still a guess,

 

[metatheurgist]

Fermi Paradox comes to play again. In a relatively mature Galaxy, why aren't we seeing evidence of someone else?

I could give you some grim possibilities.

1 - The energy and economics are so large it's just unfeasible.
2 - They kill themselves in global conflict before they get to the stage where they can leave.
3 - They consume all their resources and destroy their planet with over population or environmental damage
4a - They learn to live in balance with their natural resources but are locked in population stasis
4b - The really smart ones do 4a, then get advanced enough to create the matrix and their entire population disappears into VR

 

[Adept]

Fermi Paradox comes to play again. In a relatively mature Galaxy, why aren't we seeing evidence of someone else?

Because species die off, just like individuals. Even if intelligent life is fairly common and a techological, detectable civilization lasts on average for a million years, we're still so far removed in time and space that we're very unlikely to ever spot any signals from any of the others (and same goes for them as well). All that is needed to explain the Fermi paradox is that interstellar travel is not really viable, at least not on any significant scale. Nobody can colonise the Milky Way.

 

[winterknight]

Since the Big Bang when there was predominately only one element Hydrogen. Stars have to go through 3 or more likely 4 stages before elements heavier than iron appear.
So a question is how long did it take before there were a significant number of planets such as ours that were made of the heavy elements?
Is earth one of those early planets, or how long after the first heavy element planets did earth form?
I would say only if you know that, and I don't, can you start applying Drakes Equation.
And even if a similar planet is in the Goldilocks zone doesn't it also need a moon or two to slow down the wobble and spin so there can be seasons which are needed for evolution.

And this epistle only shows how little I know. Should have taken more notice of Fred Hoyle when I met him, but in my youth I thought he was a pompous old windbag.

 

[Minonian]

I'm not saying life is rare.

I'm saying advanced life is. It's not impossible that we are first. It's also not impossible that we're the only one that will ever arise in our Galaxy.

It's just very improbable.

Fermi Paradox comes to play again. In a relatively mature Galaxy, why aren't we seeing evidence of someone else?

Ahhh the good ole forum debates where you answer a question sometimes years before only to someone comes and ask them again.
Sarcasm mode /ON/
How much i missed them!?

Here is your answer, with some addenum. Our instruments are not sensitive enough, to tell it for sure.

https://forums.frontier.co.uk/showthread.php/250892-64k-the-fermi-paradox