I'm sure the state of the system matters ..
Also Bust (although that seems more prone to generate "fetch/steal X from abandoned settlement") and Terrorist Attack (these will usually have hostiles occupying the settlement), from what I've seen.Civil Unrest and Infrastructure Failure seem to be the ones. But look at the faction state, not the system state. Each faction has their own state, and it affects their settlements.
Yup. But at the same time, the faction effect for Civil Unrest/Infrastructure Failure/Pirate Attack/etc remains, so the settlements may still be getting targeted for shutdown/sabotage missions (or even players looting them for Power Regulators), and the faction not recovering from the state can be a indication of that. But these other states are also good to look into (I only ever looked for Infrastructure Failure myself).Also Bust (although that seems more prone to generate "fetch/steal X from abandoned settlement") and Terrorist Attack (these will usually have hostiles occupying the settlement), from what I've seen.
From what Frontier have said, player activity to reactivate settlements can result in the settlement being functional again on the next tick, even if the negative state is still in effect. So if a faction has been in a negative state for a while, it's possible that player activity will have resolved all the offline settlements and caused the support missions to dry up.
But won't the Galaxy Map only show the state of the controlling faction?The problem with using Inara is that the data for a system is only updated when a Cmdr running ED:Marketconnector visits that system. So you can often find Infrastructure Failure systems which are really in Investment or Boom when you check them on the ED galmap.
For time-sensitive stuff (e.g. faction states) it's better to use the galaxy map and filter to the state you want. I just wish the ED map allowed multiple filters aside from state and population. E.g. Economy type as well.