Where do you see VR tech going in 5-10 years?

I was just discussing VR with a friend and we were thinking of the future of the technology. My prediction is in the next 2-3 years we'll have gen 2 and maybe gen 3 hit the market with 4K+ panels and a 200 degree FOV. That will require next generation graphics cards which should come in that timeframe or close. Once we have dual 4K panels with 200+ degree FOV I think VR will explode. I don't know much about optics so I don't understand the challenges around fixing god rays but I have to believe that's solvable as well.

At the tail end of what we can predict, 5-10 years, headsets will become extremely light, wireless and transparent. That would allow for full immersion in a VR world and mixed environment in an AR world. We'll have full and complete field of view with full peripheral vision. In AR mode headsets would use transparent displays allowing for general computing in VR/AR. At that point corporate IT departments will start using the tech, an AR environment where I can not only do my own work but can conference with anyone anywhere on any team (think the VR desktop Bigscreen) will enable collaboration in a way we just don't have today. I can sit next to Barbara regardless of her being down the hall or across the world. These headsets would have to be extremely unobtrusive to allow for in person interactions, office workers are not going to want to be locked into a VR world at the office, but an AR world where the glasses are akin to prescription glasses would be incredible.

GPU technology will continue to grow to allow for near perfect photo realism. That will be one of our biggest challenges as we still can't perfectly replicate how lighting interacts with the world. We'll continue to get closer and closer to perfection here but I do think this will be the hardest challenge here. Headset hardware will likely advance faster than GPU/software will as such I think that's the piece that will mean the difference between amazing visuals and The Matrix.

I know many bash current gen VR, usually those that don't own it yet. Many compare VR to 3D TVs in that it's DOA. Setting aside glasses-free 3D there isn't much more we can do to improve it. The difference is all the current VR issues are solvable.

What do you think? Do you see full field of view, crystal clear 4K+ images (no screen door), and nearly perfect photo realism in games? Do you see headsets becoming fully wireless, incredibly light and transparent? Do you want an AR environment for ccomputing? Do you think it's a fad that will die out? How long do you think it will be before we have much of the tech I envision, 2 years? 5? 10? Really looking forward to hearing what you guys think.

~X
 
Given the growing list of epic games. (Made a list of just a few on a thread a bit down funnily enough.)
The fact a 4K headset already released while not really viable yet, tech-side is there. It's just graphics cards that really aren't.
The fact that wireless headsets are already here (in china) and releasing stateside shortly. (Well correction, they are released for the Vive as a modification anyway. I have no insight to Oculus')

Crystal clear, 4K images with a wireless headset that's lightweight flawlessly tracked by lighthouses and relatively cheap if not self-containing it's own processor in said 5-10 year future so that it actually doesn't need a PC to be functional but when in a PC, simply doesn't draw extra resources: yeah, I see that being the new mainstream device in such a time. A device that can run on a standard TV to watch your favorite shows, both 2d and 3d seamlessly, a device that plugs into your preferred console on a whim and works in either 2d or 3d case and the same for your PC: that's newfound designs become so easily portable and painless it's just the new 'TV' effectively.

From watching what Microsoft is cooking up with Holo-lens and AR to what we have now this moment with VR.. future's here, plain and simple. Mainstream's around the corner just a few innovations away. Well, unless this lawsuit against Oculus manages to shut them down and that somehow spirals into killing the market altogether, but well.. I'm on Vive's side so *waggle tongue childish display* :3

In seriousness though, eh.. worth keeping tabs on if you own a VR headset, no matter which side your on. Could have a major positive or negative impact on us all.
 
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Some very great points Azra'il, don't disagree on anything. You're right when you say the tech is here, we just need GPUs to catch up - I suppose I was being a bit more specific in terms of being in general consumer hands. Not those like us that are on the edge and *want* to use first gen hardware/software but more the "normal" or casual gamer. I'm not sure I see VR/headsets replace the TV, certainly not in the living room primarily for the social experience. Nobody wants to sit on the couch next to another with everyone wearing headsets - that said as those headsets get laughably small, as in the size of a standard pair of glasses even that will change. And while that sounds pretty ridiculous in some ways think of what the first ever cell phone looked like - that huge Motorola brick. Compare that to the smallest of phones now, I have the current thinnest in the world, the Blu Vivo Air at just at 5mm thick. I'd say that difference is as big as a Rift/Vive to a pair of glasses, or at least close.

I think the business/enterprise aspects are going to be really big for consumer adoption and vice versa. When a guy at home can use a headset, let's say AR with all we envision (full FOV, crystal clear, light, wireless) and he runs something like Bigscreen to give him a huge virtual workspace he's going to want to bring that into the Enterprise. Then when Barbara in HR gets her AR headset that enables all this at work she's going to want that at home for work and quickly her kids will want that for games. I see this being one of those times where enterprise will drive gaming and gaming will drive the enterprise.

No matter what I'm incredibly excited about it. We really are at a huge shifting point into the way we interact with PCs. The PC revolution back in the late 80's through 90's was huge in that it brought the PC into the home and turned it into a must have appliance, as important or maybe even more so that your dishwasher. We're now on the cuff of the next change where computing moves to us, to our world. The connection that will bring will blur the line between technology and reality and I think will be truly incredible. I don't think we'll see The Matrix in our lifetimes, as in plugging in and fully being inside a simulated world that again is perceptually perfect - but this tech will get us as close as we need and want to be.

Then again I think the odds are high that we're already living inside a simulation. The subject fascinates me, in short if we agree that at some point we will have the technology for true perfect sensory simulation - ie The Matrix - if that's true why would we think we're in the first or pre-alpha version of that now? Isn't it just as likely that we could already be in that simulation creating another sim within it? If you do assume this is at least possible the odds that we're pre-alpha right now are much lower than the odds that we're already in and have been in a simulated world. We could be 10-20 hell 1000 levels deep in the sim which raises the question - who wrote and when the first, top layer simulation? Us? Have we? Will we? Or are we just living in a locker like the small alien world at the end of Men in Black......

Food for thought, well maybe junk-food for thought ;-)
 
I think its very hard to predict where VR is going.

20 years ago, consumer 3D card were only just starting to enter the market via 3Dfx (1997 for my first Orchid Righteous 3D Voodoo1 card).

Forward 10 years and you have a whole ecosystem of different 3D content, entry level cards through to enthusiast and high end such as the 8800GTS. The gigapixel fill rate barrier had been well and truly broken, and 3D cards needed addidional features rather than just getting faster and faster. Enter pixel and vertex shaders, which made versatile use of the GPU, and we see a bit of a jump from a dedicated graphics solution to a GPU that is more multiurpose.

Forward another 10 years and we have nearly fully-versatile GPUs with incredible power compared to the first Voodoo chips. Unbelievable. The 3Dfx designers could never have concieved of the power a 1080 or Pascal brings to the table.

Part of the process with VR will be quantum leaps in how we think about displaying graphics to the human eye. Next generation will bring slightly better optics (possible), eye tracking and possibly foveated rendering. You don't really need a massive increase in field of view - a modest increase of 5degrees either side makes a big difference to immersion, including the horrors of nausea motion sickness. There are alternate routes for additional immersion.
Remember the TV's that had lights that glow around the edges, lighting up the wall with whatever colour is at the edge of the screen for 'ambience'? Well in VR, a few edge-lighting led's around the periphery can do all the work that thousands of real display pixels could for edge vision... but at a tiny fraction of the rendering cost. 20-30 pixels per eye. Thats it. There's your extension of the peripheral vision. Not perfect but cheap and very effective (I think its MS experimenting with this now).
Foveated rendering will reduce the cost of rendering high/ultra detail in the centre of the eye's attention, reducing detail elswhere - I think this will be an enduring technology for a long time, because its really tying in with how the eyes work... fine detail in the centre and poor detail at the edges.

There's nothing to really stop non-isometric screens from making an appearance - finer pixels in the centre and near centre of the display, and larger coarser pixels towards the edges, where foveated rendering is more likely to be running the show.

Curved screens aswell, to help the optics. There's only so much you can do with the display so close to the actual eye. A fresnel lens is about as good as it gets - its considerably better focus across a wider range of the lens than a simple refractive lens could give you. You can't really get away from the lens thickness except by using a fresnel lens. The trade-off is god-rays, and only some users find them distracting. Most just get used to them. But a curved screen might be better for some optical solutions, with finer ridges on the frsenel lens too. Hard to say - I'm not in high end optics either (except my own lenses are polycarbonate now too heh yay for cataracts at 41).

Which brings me to my next point - embedded VR. In 10-20 years time I see lenses like the ones used to replace my own cataract-damaged lenses being small screens themselves. Turned off, the lens is transparent and you see normally.
Turned on, and with a simple set of eye-tracking glasses (lighter than normal reading glasses, no lenses etc, just tracking - the embedded lenses display an ultra-fine pixel array directly into your eyeball. The pixels are aligned precisely along the outer edge of the implanted lens. Light passes through the lens, being bent as it would as if you were seeing an normal external scene. You get full edge-to-edge immersion, because the lens takes up all the space behind your iris.
Your iris movements are being tracked as well, and that feeds into brightness of the displayed image. Although 3D GPU's will be many times more powerful than now, foveated rendering is not really needed as you're only rendering what the eye would see normally. External tracking of your full-body position, hands, arms, head, face, eyes, eyelids and and iris will all be commonplace. That isn't too far away. The implanted lens pixel array would be tuned to the relative density of your retina - fine at the centre of your vision, less at the edges.

The technology to transmit that sort of bandwidth to a tiny, non-powered receiver display array that small doesn't exist yet, but it will come in time. Possibly in our lifetimes. I see a small set of cameras installed in your home, able to read your body for tracking, IoT-enabled clothing possibly tracking your motion, and a small set of glasses for the interface and some sort of induction powering the pixel array. Even this could be a secondary implant.
Some may be squeamish - I admit I was apprehensive when a surgeon approaches you with a scalpel (and he's headed for your eye!). But valium does wonders (I got told to shut up, watch from the inside and stop asking questions lol).
Do away with augmented reality, full-dark VR like we are playing in now... Embedded VR will be a major stepping point.

In The Matrix, we see invasive full-sensory hook-ups with a huge spike going in the back of your head.. this is a looooong way off and may be too dangerous compared to simply hijacking your body's own nerve endings. Your clothes may simply be tailored to give a variety of sensory inputs and feedback in addition to the vision through implanted lenses. The spooky bit is that how would you really be sure of what you were seeing? Is it real, or is it being piped in?

Edit: my spelling.
 
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I think its very hard to predict where VR is going.

20 years ago, consumer 3D card were only just starting to enter the market via 3Dfx (1997 for my first Orchid Righteous 3D Voodoo1 card).

Forward 10 years and you have a whole ecosystem of different 3D content, entry level cards through to enthusiast and high end such as the 8800GTS. The gigapixel fill rate barrier had been well and truly broken, and 3D cards needed addidional features rather than just getting faster and faster. Enter pixel and vertex shaders, which made versatile use of the GPU, and we see a bit of a jump from a dedicated graphics solution to a GPU that is more multiurpose.

Forward another 10 years and we have nearly fully-versatile GPUs with incredible power compared to the first Voodoo chips. Unbelievable. The 3Dfx designers could never have concieved of the power a 1080 or Pascal brings to the table.

Part of the process with VR will be quantum leaps in how we think about displaying graphics to the human eye. Next generation will bring slightly better optics (possible), eye tracking and possibly foveated rendering. You don't really need a massive increase in field of view - a modest increase of 5degrees either side makes a big difference to immersion, including the horrors of nausea motion sickness. There are alternate routes for additional immersion.
Remember the TV's that had lights that glow around the edges, lighting up the wall with whatever colour is at the edge of the screen for 'ambience'? Well in VR, a few edge-lighting led's around the periphery can do all the work that thousands of real display pixels could for edge vision... but at a tiny fraction of the rendering cost. 20-30 pixels per eye. Thats it. There's your extension of the peripheral vision. Not perfect but cheap and very effective (I think its MS experimenting with this now).
Foveated rendering will reduce the cost of rendering high/ultra detail in the centre of the eye's attention, reducing detail elswhere - I think this will be an enduring technology for a long time, because its really tying in with how the eyes work... fine detail in the centre and poor detail at the edges.

There's nothing to really stop non-isometric screens from making an appearance - finer pixels in the centre and near centre of the display, and larger coarser pixels towards the edges, where foveated rendering is more likely to be running the show.

Curved screens aswell, to help the optics. There's only so much you can do with the display so close to the actual eye. A fresnel lens is about as good as it gets - its considerably better focus across a wider range of the lens than a simple refractive lens could give you. You can't really get away from the lens thickness except by using a fresnel lens. The trade-off is god-rays, and only some users find them distracting. Most just get used to them. But a curved screen might be better for some optical solutions, with finer ridges on the frsenel lens too. Hard to say - I'm not in high end optics either (except my own lenses are polycarbonate now too heh yay for cataracts at 41).

Which brings me to my next point - embedded VR. In 10-20 years time I see lenses like the ones used to replace my own cataract-damaged lenses being small screens themselves. Turned off, the lens is transparent and you see normally.
Turned on, and with a simple set of eye-tracking glasses (lighter than normal reading glasses, no lenses etc, just tracking - the embedded lenses display an ultra-fine pixel array directly into your eyeball. The pixels are aligned precisely along the outer edge of the implanted lens. Light passes through the lens, being bent as it would as if you were seeing an normal external scene. You get full edge-to-edge immersion, because the lens takes up all the space behind your iris.
Your iris movements are being tracked as well, and that feeds into brightness of the displayed image. Although 3D GPU's will be many times more powerful than now, foveated rendering is not really needed as you're only rendering what the eye would see normally. External tracking of your full-body position, hands, arms, head, face, eyes, eyelids and and iris will all be commonplace. That isn't too far away. The implanted lens pixel array would be tuned to the relative density of your retina - fine at the centre of your vision, less at the edges.

The technology to transmit that sort of bandwidth to a tiny, non-powered receiver display array that small doesn't exist yet, but it will come in time. Possibly in our lifetimes. I see a small set of cameras installed in your home, able to read your body for tracking, IoT-enabled clothing possibly tracking your motion, and a small set of glasses for the interface and some sort of induction powering the pixel array. Even this could be a secondary implant.
Some may be squeamish - I admit I was apprehensive when a surgeon approaches you with a scalpel (and he's headed for your eye!). But valium does wonders (I got told to shut up, watch from the inside and stop asking questions lol).
Do away with augmented reality, full-dark VR like we are playing in now... Embedded VR will be a major stepping point.

In The Matrix, we see invasive full-sensory hook-ups with a huge spike going in the back of your head.. this is a looooong way off and may be too dangerous compared to simply hijacking your body's own nerve endings. Your clothes may simply be tailored to give a variety of sensory inputs and feedback in addition to the vision through implanted lenses. The spooky bit is that how would you really be sure of what you were seeing? Is it real, or is it being piped in?

Edit: my spelling.

The last part of your post reminds me of an episode of black Mirrors...
 
The obvious is better ergonomics, lighter equipment and better performance.
Near future I bet we will see all VR move to full FOV and self adjustable to allow perfect and clear image for any user.
Controllers will soon be through interactive gloves that replace the current motion controllers.

As for AR, I believe its future is already grounded in mobile devices. Everyone will have their device connected to AR glasses/visors that feed interactive info about the surroundings through GPS, WIFI and somm form of QR codes.
These visors/glasses will become the trend, much like headphones weirdly enough is today, among the youth and brands will market entire collections of visors and accessories.
It will become second nature and inevitably, everyone will become dependent on them.

I cant believe this feels like such a likely and obvious future, it sounds exactly like the cyberpunk sci-fi of my youth :D
 
tl;dr - RedRaven posted some incredibly insightful comments and I'm going to try, but likely fail, to expand and debate a few topics below.....

I think its very hard to predict where VR is going.

First holy crap and thanks, your reply is *exactly* what I hoped someone would do, a long reply that's clearly had a lot of thought put into all this. One of the coolest/most informative posts I've read in a very long time, thanks for sharing everything. For the most part I think you're pretty spot on and that much of what you're proposing is very likely. Not only from the perspective of it becoming technically possible but social as well. Thanks for taking the time to write all that, I'm a fast typist and that would have taken even myself quite a while to compose.

Oh and while it is hard I think you did a pretty damn good job at it.

.....such as the 8800GTS.....

Side note: Ah, I remember that card fondly, in fact there's one sitting on my desk as I write this. Definitely the oldest piece of computer tech I have, I didn't really keep it for nostalgia, I just never pitched it and then realized how trans formative it was so I kept it. Good memories...

....You don't really need a massive increase in field of view - a modest increase of 5 degrees either side makes a big difference to immersion... ...a few edge-lighting led's around the periphery can do all the work ... ...I think this will be an enduring technology for a long time

Very interesting, I'll admit that my gut keeps saying this can't actually work or trick the eye but at the same time I can sorta see how it would. Likely a "you need to see it" sorta experience. I do think I see FOV as far more important than you're pointing out, or really how we get to that full FOV. Personally I think we need a *far* larger FOV than we have now, I see 2nd gen (that's testing now) at 200'ish FOV and think that will be a HUGE step up, in fact FOV is my single biggest complaint with my Rift. If it was 50-100% larger I'd forgive the other 2 issues (for me god rays and screen door) as at least my peripheral vision would feel normal. Sure I can turn my head to see the whole VR world but that's not how my vision works IRL.

That said I think we really only differ here in how we get to full FOV, and when I say full meaning as I sit here typing this on my couch I can see my entire environment around me (just focused on my laptop). That's the holy grail of VR IMHO.

I'm also not sure I agree with your thoughts on eye-tracking/foveated rendering (I assume you're referring to the FOVE headset and the eye tracking it's doing). What I mean is I absolutely agree that we'll need that as a stepping stone into this perfectly rendered VR world. Right now we need to do things to be as efficient as possible given our current CPU and GPU technologies. I think I see foveated rendering as a stepping stone into CPU/GPU that are so powerful they no longer need that middle step. Why bother with eye tracking hardware and software when the CPU/GPU is so powerful it can easily render the entire FOV frame? I do think that's a good ways off, but not longer than 10 years, and maybe even before. Am I missing something here or do we just sorta disagree?

Curved screens aswell.... .....god-rays, and only some users find them distracting. Most just get used to them.

I feel stupid I hadn't considered how curved displays will factor in to VR, total no brainer. I have wondered about the optics when you have 2 panels that go so far to your peripheral vision and that it would be likely that could make god rays much more prevalent. It also seems we differ on opinions about the impact of god rays. I agree that people get used to it, etc. but at the same time every VR user I've chatted with, admittedly a small'ish sample set, have agreed it's a huge issue. For me it's not really about breaking immersion but is more that I keep feeling like something is wrong and smudged on my lenses (which sure breaks immersion). At least every 5-10 minutes, minimum, something will really bug me due to god rays. Obviously nothing worse than white text on a black background (rebuy screen, ugh). For me this is the 2nd biggest problem, after FOV but not as bad as screen door.

...embedded VR.... ...You get full edge-to-edge immersion

I think you're likely right, I'm just not sure I think we'll see this in our lifetime and certainly not in the next 5-10 years. I think it's damn near impossible to predict that far out, especially for the common tech enthusiast like myself. Hell I don't know where I'll be living in 5-10 years! That said I do think this is the natural progression of the tech, to completely transform society it has to be so easy to use that it "just works" everywhere. I have to imagine glasses were sorta the same, at first only the rich could afford them but over time, and not much, they became a normal part of society. Your comparison to current headphones, ala Beats, and fashion is likely spot on. Even today some wear glasses simply for fashion (not many but some) and certainly models use them all the time for photos. Where there were times that glasses were "bad" (four eyes, etc) today there is zero stigma around them (at least to my knowledge). I mean what guy doesn't think the hot librarian look with glasses is just, well, hot!

...The technology to transmit that... ...doesn't exist yet, but it will come in time. Possibly in our lifetimes.... ...Embedded VR will be a major stepping point.

I definitely think this will come in our lifetime, bandwidth is just progressing so quickly that I think we'll hit this level in 10 years. I remember back in the late 90's being at a trade show (I think it was Networld +Interop in Atlanta) and John Chambers, CEO of Cisco was there. He said something like "with the release of the 28.8 modem we have arrived. The speeds this allows will bring audio and small video to us and will be all the bandwidth the consumer will ever need". It shocked me he'd say something so, uh, stupid. When I moved to Denver in 1999 the company I worked for put in a 384k IDSL line (basically 2 ISDN lines bonded together) at my house so I could work from home. I remember not being able to sleep the night before the install as I was so excited for the incredible speed I was about to get. It didn't disappoint when it was installed and began my life as being fully connected 24/7 (I'd done that with a 2nd phone line and a modem for a few years but this was different obviously). Now I have a 250M/50M down/up cable modem and while that's crazy fast it's actually not these days of gigabit home connections. Never would I have thought that roughly 15 years later I'd have a net connection that was 25x faster than my 10M LAN connections. I do find it a bit sad that we don't take better advantage of this bandwidth, I've always been surprised that a true video-phone system/app hasn't ever caught on with the public. I understand the "I just woke up, I don't want them to see me" issues but I always thought that would be a small part of the users. Last night I wound up video conferencing with a few Elite players as we were discussing some off-topic stuff. Being able to see these guys who had previously been just a voice in my ear was very compelling, we wound up just chatting about random (and interesting) topics for a few hours when we'd planned only a few minutes. It really enabled a great experience.

...Is it real, or is it being piped in?

That really is going to be the question isn't it? I'm sure you're familiar with Simulation Theory, that we're all living in a simulator right now. I find that fascinating. I can't recall the author but someone pointed out a few things. I think we can agree that at some point in our future we will have the ability to create a fully simulated and perfect environment. That you could be in that environment, ala Matrix, and every experience, image, senses will be so perfect you couldn't separate it from the real world. If you believe that is true that means at some point you will be able to fully exist in a simulation - and if that's true why would we think that we aren't yet in that simulation. That crossover point, much like the coming birth of true AI, will only happen once in human existence. Given that isn't it more likely that it has already happened vs. the odds that we are still in a point before that happening? Also if you see this happening won't it happen multiple times, stacking on itself. We're in a sim, we create a sim for others, they advance and create a sim, and so on. With the ability for multi-layers stacking on itself the odds become far far less that we are still before that first creation point. Given all that it is far more likely we're already in a simulation than we aren't - and if we are, no matter at what layer, it would be impossible to prove or disprove that simulated world. Well until a black cat crosses the room and glitches back....

Again very very interesting discussion to me, I'm so glad I started this thread if only for your reply RedRaven. I'd love to continue to hear your thoughts, as I'm sure you have more.

I also hope to hear similar, or maybe even better dissimilar, thoughts from others. A few years ago I wasn't sure I was convinced about the future of VR. The first night, the first few minutes I wore my Rift I was extremely disappointed. The FOV, god rays and screen door were so bad I just couldn't believe it. I'd never tried a DK1/DK2 on purpose as I wanted to wait until "it was done". I now understand why all the early reviews were so positive as it was a huge step up from those, especially DK1 obviously. The next morning I posted it on Craigs List as I was a Kickstarter and had one from the first shipment. As such i posted it for a stupid $1000 and got a $850 offer 3 days later (hadn't touched it again in that time). When I got the email I thought "I should dust off my Warthog and try that space game, what was it, Elite something...." and 5 minutes after I clicked "Open" I was cleaning the drool off my shirt. That was it, done, I was sold, hooked, addicted. I couldn't believe how amazing that oddly titled game was, never had I felt so immersed into a game world. A few hours later I sent the guy an email apologizing and explaining that I'd tried it with Elite Deadly (still couldn't remember the damn name) and I just fell in love. A few days later I had the mounts for my Warthog for my sim pit / cockpit and it's been downhill from there. Next came a 1080 when those released. Then I integrated my ButtKicker (was only using it for racing sims, rewired so I could use it with my sub/other games). Finally added a small motion platform and my transition from playing a cool game to flying a F'ing space ship was complete. 6-7 months and 700 hours of cockpit time, 99% in VR later and I'm still hooked and every session something makes my jaw drop.

If you love Elite and haven't experienced it in VR don't - at least until you have the means to acquire it. I couldn't ever go back to flying with screens again, I mean how the hell do you people dogfight without it?!?!?!?

~X
 
Well in VR, a few edge-lighting led's around the periphery can do all the work that thousands of real display pixels could for edge vision... but at a tiny fraction of the rendering cost. 20-30 pixels per eye. That's it. There's your extension of the peripheral vision.

That's actually a pretty cool idea. I wear corrective lenses with a pretty high strength (-7.25 in my worst eye), and when I'm wearing glasses which is 90% of the time, the experience I have is very blurry peripheral vision outside of my sleek and modern rectangular frames. I think having some light, or some blurred image in my peripheral vision will help with the perceived FOV, but I think it'll also come as the natural byproduct of wider displays. I can see this easily being achieved by letting the light bleed through the areas outside of the optics, just make the plastic frosted clear instead of black. I'm afraid that might visually expose some of the inner-workings of the headset though, instead of it feeling like wearing goggles. If someone with a 3D printer is brave enough to teardown their Vive for science and print clear replacement parts for the front inner frame and the two display housings to create that ambient light effect, that would be a fun experiment.

I don't know that much about optics, except that it is primarily the study of trade-offs, and because of physics you can only do so much without putting a display right to your eyeball. A curved display would be nice, but I'm not sure how well curved optics will help. Light still has to do a lot of bending the further from the principal axis you get, and more extreme angles means more refraction (which you can see with normal high-strength lenses in prescription glasses) and more god rays in Fresnel lenses. I don't see the Fresnel lens going away, but I would be interested in knowing if a curved Fresnel lens will help create super wide FOV without getting in the way of users wearing glasses. Oh yeah, in the future, I see prescription VR lenses. Just as expensive as current lenses, but if becomes an important part of society, I can see it happening.

Within 5 Years

Eye tracking inside of the headset would be great for foveated rendering on lower hardware (someone brought this up earlier), but also eye tracking would be great for UI purposes: looking at a button to press it, having characters react to your gaze, and great for data collection and training. In about 2-5 years I could easily see this becoming standard in VR headsets.

Eye tracking could help with one of the limitations of optics which is that pesky lens center. Contact lenses work so well because they (through contact) track perfectly with the lens of your eye. In my glasses the image is blurrier the further from center I'm looking. If the optics inside of the HMD can track with your eye movement, rotating with your eye to always be in your center of vision, I think the optics will improve a lot. Of course the problem with that is how explosively fast your eyes are, and a motor won't be able to catch up. But I'm curious if even a little bit of assistance in that regard, helping the lens track to where you are looking, would help improve the overall optical experience, because again, I don't see the Fresnel lens going away because of physics until the display is attached to your eye.

Inside-out tracking. No lighthouses, no Rift cameras, just the wireless HMD. Totally doable. I see this and wireless headsets being the standard in 3-5 years, maybe sooner. The use of a camera for head tracking can also be used for hand tracking (similar to what Leap Motion is doing), so your hands are shown in VR. I'll get to seeing your hands in VR in a second.

Haptics. I see an emerging market for VR peripherals to help with haptics in a practical sense, but I don't see full haptic systems being possible in the near future. (By haptics I don't mean mere rumble packs, I mean force feedback.) I've used some very cool haptic systems at SIGGRAPH over the years, some involving cables to pull on an object in 3D space, some using electromagnetism to move an object in 3D space, both systems had such great detail that you could feel the wood texture through the object you were holding in 3D space. It felt perfectly real. However, to move an object in all those axes required so many cables that you can only hold the object one way, and the space where you could hold the object was very small.

A full body suit? Eh...I just don't see that happening for consumers. We do have exoskeletons though (think military ones), which I could see easily in training and VR arcades for sure. But holy crap the damage a fully force feedback body suit could do to a human would be immense if it has a bug in the software. The ranges of movement would have to be mechanically limited to prevent injury, but I could see it being robust enough to have a walking-in-power-armor or a mech simulator.

Arcades are coming back. Next year. Seriously. You can thank VR for that. Not everyone can afford VR or has the space for it, and more expensive peripherals can be used at arcades than at home.

Peripherals. Because haptics are not cheap, and if full-body haptics are not feasible for consumers (even if the tech is there, it's just not practical to have in a home, and the budget will always be too high), I think peripherals are going to be the main source of haptics in games. With unified tracking solutions for peripherals, I think they'll become more common and more varied. You'll need many different kids of peripherals to have many kinds of VR experiences. The best VR experiences I've had were not with touch controllers, they were with a HOTAS or a wheel and pedals. But there's so much more than that. In the near future, I can easily see there being a peripheral marketplace, an easy way to rent peripherals for whatever kind of game you want to keep these kinds of interesting VR experiences flowing for people. People will get tired of VR games that need them (think about all those abandoned Guitar Hero controllers) so lets make it part of the VR gaming economy and embrace it. Encourage it, and not make it seem like a waste if you want to switch to something else. I'd also like to see these kinds of peripheral rental places available locally at a store. Probably more cost effective for big box or game stores to do this instead of a dedicated VR peripheral store, but you never know.

An open standard to construct your own peripherals. Peripherals don't need to look good anymore, they just have to have the shape with buttons or switches on them. Anyone can take an Arduino board for controller logic (code supplied by devs for game), a Vive Tracker device, standardized triggers and knobs that you can buy online and wire them to Arduino, and either a 3D printable frame or one you can cut from wood with easy instructions, and you can pretty much create any kind of peripheral you want for whatever game you want to play. And when these are made you can put them into that used peripheral marketplace for rent, or sell them once you are bored of it. This would help explode the type of VR experiences people can have, and allow developers to be more inventive without having to rely on existing mass-produced peripherals.

This is how I imagine seeing all of this inside-out tracking, with hand position, and standardized custom peripheral making coming together for VR. Imaging playing a flight sim that is aware of the peripherals in your room through the Vive Tracker device and the standardized peripheral system. Your hand is rendered in VR because of the integrated camera tracking in the HMD. You've built a wood panel with buttons and switches on it based on plans provided by the developer. In this example the buttons don't need to be connected to anything, because the off/on state is being shown in-game and onClick events are determined by your hand touching it in VR space. But the haptic feedback is perfect because it's a physical (albeit brainless) button you are pressing. Developers can release peripheral designs for their games, or use an existing "compatible" design (because lots of games out there have AR-15s). Use physical objects and buttons for haptic feedback (dummy buttons or buttons wired up to a controller), and VR for the appearance. It would be possible to have modular or configurable frames so that you have the feeling of the object in question (a bow has a similar grip as a hammer for example).

Essentially, in the next 5 years I see the unholy union between the maker movement and VR gamers, provided that the Vive Tracker is open enough for anyone to make uncertified peripherals. If VR headsets use a purely optical solution, then it should be possible for everyone, no matter the brand, to use these kinds of peripherals.

The Human Element in the next 5 years

I do want to touch on this a little bit. I could turn this into an entire topic (and might need to if this derails the thread), but here's my thoughts on the most important part of VR: how it affects people.

I grew up with tech. I am by no means a Luddite, but I am always skeptical about new tech and how it will affect people. I believe the way people interact socially online is a double-edge sword. When my adolescent brain was developing, social media wasn't a thing, but BBS's, and IRC were. I grew up primarily interacting face to face, and very little online. With many adolescents today, I think it's getting closer to a 50/50 split. I've talked to parents, educators, and people who are making hiring decisions say that they have seen a notable negative shift in this generation's interpersonal skills. At the same time, it's allowing people to connect with others that they would never be able to before. People are better connected but at the same time being further apart, and would rather post pictures of them appearing to have a good time than actually having a good time themselves. It's seems like a wash. We are still figuring out how to adapt to all this new tech and use it all for what it is best at, and avoid what it is worst at. We are still figuring that out.

As with the study of optics, the way we use technology in society is often a study of trade-offs.

Even though it would be fantastic for training and education, and occasional wish fulfillment, I think a holodeck could be a very bad thing for society if everyone had one in their garage. But what about VR?

My mom put a VR headset on and I loaded up Google Earth. The first thing she wanted to do was to explore the great cities, places she wanted to visit abroad but hasn't yet. Then she started to visit places she had lived. She pointed out the pond they would play at as kids. She flew to her grandparents old house. She stood on top of the hill they would hike up to as kids, and she got to relive the view on top of that mountain. As a family we were able to talk and share stories about her childhood that she had never shared with us before, brought back to memory because she was able to see it all again as if she was there.

How many of you playing Elite Dangerous have branched out into flight sims, and enjoyed it well enough that you've thought about taking flight lessons? How many of your have started planning your next vacation based on what you saw in Google Earth? How many have thought about getting into a real race car instead of just a sim after playing Project Cars? I can definitely say that VR has allowed me to get more of a taste of the world out there, and learn some applicable skills like flying and racing.

I think video games are best and teaching us, and even better for things that apply to the real world, like how I learned to land a Cessna in X-Plane or play guitar using Rocksmith. Think about how much artists can learn drawing in 3D in addition to 2D, how much doctors can learn operating on a 3D cadaver. If the simulation was good enough, what kind of new medical procedures could be developed?

For entertainment, if it's something available in the home, I think having it be just real enough to be engaging and immersive, but not so real that it is a substitute for the real thing is the best balance. I think VR will serve humanity best at introducing people to new experiences so that they'll either understand it more, or want to experience the real thing for themselves.

Having a VR headset doesn't make me want to play games more, which is a good thing. My parents always complained about seeing the back of my head growing up, and I don't think VR will really change that for families. In other words, I don't think it'll make the effect gaming has on family relationships worse, assuming that seeing your son with a VR headset isn't less depressing than seeing them staring at a screen. But what it has done is made me want to share it with people more. I got them under the ocean in theBlu, I got them in a sci-fi shooting gallery, I got them in a fantasy dungeon, and I can't wait to get them behind the wheel of a race car or behind the controls of a Cobra MKIII. Have you tried to get parents to hold some weird blob of plastic with buttons on it and instructing them how to make the little character on the screen go? Yeah. But then you get them to wear a VR headset, and boom, all of the sudden they get it.

In the next 5 years, I think people are going to understand gaming more now that it's less abstract through VR and motion controllers. That's why I think peripherals are going to be such an important part of VR in these next few years, dumping the abstractness of multi-purpose controllers with the affordance of properly-shaped controllers, both as they are displayed in VR and how they feel in your hands.
 
I've heard about the Simulation Theory. Very cool, but horribly scary!

I work in ophthalmology (industry), and I believe anything is possible in the future, like embedded vr, since I read about an intraocular lens in trials right now that has an integrated working telescope...
 
Thankyou for the kind words Exigeous - my first post there was a bit of a brain-dump lol. I enjoy conversations like this and its easy to be passionate if you enjoy the subject. :)

@Metsys - you nailed it regarding the family aspect. At the moment, VR is confined to a single person - even in a multiplayer game, its "others" outside your family we're playing with. I guess the number of families with more than one VR HMD is probably still near-zero).
My wife hates it (computer games in general), and although I sneak the kids a look inside my Corvette every now and then, she'll enthusiastically veto any further immersion under the heading "white man's magic - no good" lol (I'm white, she's Masaai).

On realism -
I think many crave ultimate realism in a simulated/VR play space, but there will always be room for stylised/cel/cartoon-style graphics too.
Lots of people complained about the humans in the Ice Age movies and how they weren't realistic enough - really? You have a talking mammoth and a sloth! There was nothing wrong about the styling. I loved it.

Dead and Buried has a great visual style worthy of much more expansion, from the character design to the colour pallette used. It could never be classed as realistic.

If VR achieves the fidelity it needs to suspend your disbeleif and transport you to a story/place/company/social space 'somewhere else' then it will have achieved its goal.
I can totally see some classic universes being lovingly recreated in VR - Judge Dredd, Warhammer, Mechwarrior etc. Some will be near-real and some will be highly stylised.

All I can say is 'Bring it!'


I've heard about the Simulation Theory. Very cool, but horribly scary!

I work in ophthalmology (industry), and I believe anything is possible in the future, like embedded vr, since I read about an intraocular lens in trials right now that has an integrated working telescope...

@Dielos - I work in Opthalmology too... only as a patient haha.
A telescope/zoom lens? Awesome, just think of the trouble you could get into with that. Mission Impossible is just around the corner.
As a geologist, I need a close-up hand-lens replacement with inbuilt XRF. Might be a bit far away heh.
 
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I was just discussing VR with a friend and we were thinking of the future of the technology. My prediction is in the next 2-3 years we'll have gen 2 and maybe gen 3 hit the market with 4K+ panels and a 200 degree FOV. That will require next generation graphics cards which should come in that timeframe or close. Once we have dual 4K panels with 200+ degree FOV I think VR will explode.

What do you think? Do you see full field of view, crystal clear 4K+ images (no screen door), and nearly perfect photo realism in games? Do you see headsets becoming fully wireless, incredibly light and transparent? Do you want an AR environment for ccomputing? Do you think it's a fad that will die out? How long do you think it will be before we have much of the tech I envision, 2 years? 5? 10? Really looking forward to hearing what you guys think.

2 years? No.
5 years? Still no.

There are a few things to bare in mind when I say this. The industry is probably capable of manufactoring the dream headset in the next few years. I have already seen 7 inch 4k screens on mobile phones over 2 years ago. Trouble is the required power in the graphics cards is just not happening.. not for some time.

So full 1080p is 2 million pixels while one of the Rifts screens is 1080px1200p making roughly 1.3 million pixels.. that's approx ~0.7k resolution. With higher graphics settings, the 980GTX is just capable of powering the current tech of 2x ~0.7k screens @ 90hz.. that's from a £500 Gfx card. Asking 2x 4k screens at 90 hz is asking for £500 Gfx cards to become 6.5 times more powerful! Ideally we actually want 120hz.. so really that's about 8 times! If we are being really honest, 4k sceens are not actually going to fix the poor resolution problem and definitly wont be crystal clear, it will be less noticable sure, but not fixed until they roll out HMD's with dual 8k screens especially if we want to see 220 degrees of vision. If you have a 1080p screen in front of you now, put your eyeball about 25cm away. That's roughly how big those pixels are going to be with two 8k screens. Not exactly, but a close estimate. The optics and tech used will eliminate the little gaps between the pixels but there will still be some noticable little jaggies on hard edges and small text will be illedgeable. Those 8k screens at 120 hz will need a Gfx card about 32 times more powerful than the 980GTX.... That is not happening in the next 5 years. I guarantee it.

Next 10 years...? I wouldn't bet on that either. Try 15 years, and some.

Fully wireless.. yeah easily. That tech will be demoed in the next gen. I'll be gobsmacked if it's not.

Transparant? I'm not sure what you mean here.. I mean if it's transparant how is it supposed to block out the outside light? LCDs are actually quite dim.. they only appear bright because your eyes are trapped in a little dark box.

A fad that will die out? I hope not. I would be a fool if I completely ignored all the signs though. I have had bucket loads of fun from my DK2. Absolutely bucket loads and I can't comment on Oculus touch or motion controllers. But it's just not visibly picking up as quickly as I think most companies wanted it to. The Oculus store is a bit... lacking. It really doesn't compete that well with Steam. Sony have practically dropped PSVR. There is just so little advertisment. So little mention of it in there tech shows. It appears they don't have much confidence in it themselves. I don't see microsoft doing anything similiar as they are focusing on the AR tech for business uses not consumer uses. I don't believe it will die out like 3dTV did but with the current amount of funding going into encouraging the production of VR games and advertising.. I can't see it being the explosion we are all hoping for. I wouldn't be overly surprised if it became something akin to home cinemas, as in, a room dedicated to it with a projector. Very cool if you have the room for one, expensive to maintain and only availble to the wealthy. Home cinemas haven't died out, they are still there... and while most have dreamed about having them, few people actually do.
 
10 years? Imagine your regular sunglasses (or contacts!) projecting 3-dimensional, holographic displays in front of/around you as well as a holographic keyboard/control. Crowds of people wandering down the sidewalks with their arms out in front of them (typing) like a bunch of Frankenstein monsters mumbling like crazy people because they are talking on their ear-stud personal telephones as well as giving sub-vocal voice commands to the hockey-puck sized PCs in their pockets and purses. Playing a video game? The holographic controller seems to appear in your hands as your glasses track the movements of every part of your body.
 
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a few months ago i didnt think wireless VR would come any time soon, however TPCast looks really promising so i suspect next gen will offer (at least as an option) an official bundled wireless version.

with oculus currently working on inside out tracking my hope is they can perfect it and also make touch controllers with it which could mean Gen 2 VR may be wireless and sensor less...

add into that i am not expecting much, certainly not 4k next gen. possibly a minor bump in resolution - 25% perhaps - and maybe an extra 10 degrees on FOV.

certainly if a rift 2.0 launched with that lot, i would buy it.

I predict a launch around winter 2018

initially i thought maybe xmas 2017 but given how late oculus touch was, i do not see oculus annoying gen 1 users by launching too soon..... of course if oculus ditch inside out tracking then touch may be compatable next gen... but i hope this is not the case.

the issues caused by 3 or 4 sensors is a pita and the sooner oculus can get away from that the better.
 
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Some sort of full motion chair will help the inner-ear problem, but not completely. People want to have the most extreme experiences within VR, and some of those are vomit inducing. You could fully recreate the feeling of flying a fighter jet at high speeds mere metres above a valley floor, and the proper and natural reaction to such a real-life experience is to vomit.
 
Here's my 2 pence worth and predictions:

Firstly resolution is going to expand along with FoV this year. Whilst none of the current or near future headsets will be perfect, there are an increasing number of companies, which are adopting a Minimum Viable Product with technology enhahncements and iterating, rather than waiting for everything to be perfect before releasing to market. It was the latter that held up both the Vive and Rift and I think it hurt both the adoption and the price points.You only need to see the number of "small" company products hitting the market or about to, that are pushing boundaries for resolution and FoV from Pimax, or StarVR, or Deepoon E3, or Lenovo. They are far from perfect (or even feature complete with some lacking for example, positional tracking), but they are iterating, improving and more importantly allowing those with restricted budgets to get into VR in the first place.

I think this competition will have an effect on Oculus in particular, as most of these "new" HMDs seem to be gravitating towards SteamVR as an ecosystem, leaving the Oculus/Facebook ecosystem increasingly empty.It will be interesting to see how Oculus/Facebook react, as I'm sure an empty "walled garden" isn't in their business plan, but without either superior hardware or some unrevealed "killer app" I don't see them dominating the market in the way I think they want to (not a bad thing IMHO).

SteamVR/Vive could likely endure the competition without iterating the core res and FoV, because they have the more widely accepted and populated eco-system, with which most other HMDs are now integrating.

I hope that an arms race ensues here and it will be interesting to see how both companies react to agile hardware development and release.

On other fronts, wireless looks like its just around the corner and I can see that technology being adopted more widely provided the licensing can be worked out.

Input/haptic feedback devices are still very early days I think, but I would suggest that we'll see a lot of these start to invade the market on the run up to Christmas 2017 ad I would predict that we'll see more "special purpose" devices rather than the attempts we currently see in generic controllers e.g. VR rifles, locomotion devices and gloves with sensors or Kinectic type trackers.

Three things hamper VR to my mind however, and these are

1. cost - this will reduce over the next two to three years to the point where an entry level GPU(say 980 equivalent) and HMD (CV1/Vive equivalent) will be within the budget of most PC gamers, whereas enthusiasts will be moving onto whatever GPU comes after Pascal and 2x2K minimum 200FoV HMDs

2. Lack of killer app - I still don't think I've seen a mass appeal "killer app" for VR. As much as I love Elite Dangerous, it is not for everyone, although it does seem to be increasingly the "go to" or VR "benchmark" title in the press reviews. What I think is needed here is a franchise tie in as much as that pains me to say, but an X-Wing vs. Tie Fighter reboot would benefit VR greatly - the ball is in Disney's court on that one...

3. Marketing VR - I have shown VR to quite a few people of varying age groups and "technical" ability and all of them without exception are blown away by the experience. Even my "hard core" tech friends who are as old as I am and have been into gaming since the 80's constantly say things like "I had no idea it would be like that, you are really IN there". I've also spoken to some in the professional marketing field about how VR could overcome the basic hurdle of "you can't know VR until you have tried VR" and the best that they have come up with is physical demos widely available or advertising from a "trusted advisor". I think this means VR is going to be a slow burn before it reaches critical mass regardless of the press coverage it has and continues to get.

All that said (sorry for long post) I am looking forward to better HMDs and will purchase whatever advances the experience and I have no loyalty, so I don't care if that's Oculus, Valve/HTC, Pimax or the guy over road from his shed.
 
I own an Oculus, but I have to agree with your assessment that Valve/HTC will win out. I bought it because the VIVE just isn't as polished a product for this generation of headsets.

It isn't just the fact that Oculus sell their games from a walled garden. Zuckerberg is a turn off to some people, and now Palmer Luckey's involvement with the Reddit trolls who helped put Trump in the Oval Office isn't helping matters.

There is no Killer App for VR. I don't think it will be a new version of X-Wing vs. Tie Fighter. I don't even think it will be Half-Life 3. But I do think that Valve are the people who will come up with that game. They seem to have an understanding of what makes a game fun to play.
 
First let me start by saying that while I disagree with many points below please don't think this is anything other than a very fun and geeky debate. I've worked in IT for a long time and have been a gamer for over 20 years so I have a fair bit of experience with all this. That said these are my opinions and while I feel I've arrived at them from a lot of experience I don't mean to sound argumentative or attacking in any way. Honestly I'm *very* much enjoying this thread and debate and love that several have shared so much detail and thoughts. Please, please keep it up!! Okay, now some more thoughts...

...the Rifts screens is 1080px1200p making roughly 1.3 million pixels.. that's approx ~0.7k resolution. With higher graphics settings, the 980GTX is just capable of powering the current tech of 2x ~0.7k screens @ 90hz.. that's from a £500 Gfx card.

While I understand what you're saying about the number of pixels that have to be pushed I think your math is a bit off here. Right now 980's can be had new for about $350 at various places. And remember the minimum published spec for the Rift, on the GPU side, is actually a 960. I do think that's a bit low but I know several that are using 970's with the Rift with totally acceptable results. Those are now in the $225 range. While I'm not a fan of AMD the new RX 480 is more than powerful enough and clocks in at right around $200. So the cost barrier for entry on the PC side is getting cheaper every day. You could easily build a VR capable PC for $1000 right now and that number will continue to fall.

Asking 2x 4k screens at 90 hz is asking for £500 Gfx cards to become 6.5 times more powerful! Ideally we actually want 120hz.. so really that's about 8 times!

So if we're talking about 2 full resolution 4k displays you're absolutely right that it's a rather huge jump in the number of pixels from what we have today. While 120hz is ideal it's far from necessary, 90hz is more than enough for things to look butter smooth. In fact I've played around with the asynchronous spacewarp features Oculus added a bit back and locked my Rift at 45 instead of 90. While it's certainly less smooth than 90 it's a very minor difference to my eyes and so far a few friends/neighbors haven't been able to see the difference.

If we are being really honest, 4k sceens are not actually going to fix the poor resolution problem and definitly wont be crystal clear, it will be less noticable sure, but not fixed until they roll out HMD's with dual 8k screens especially if we want to see 220 degrees of vision.

Again I couldn't disagree more. I have a slightly old LG G3 Android phone that has a 5.5" 1440p OLED display. I grabbed one of the plastic GearVR like mounts for it just to play around with. I couldn't believe how much clearer it is than the Rift, it's rather startling. I have near perfect vision, 8/20 last time I was tested and I'm *very* sensitive to screen door - with that 1440p OLED display in my knockoff headset (with Fresnel lenses) I can only barely, slightly see any SCE. Even if I look *really* hard I can only see it on very bright images, pretty much only when there's a large white item or background. Other than that it's shocking how much better it is. I actually think we'll see a generation of HMDs that use 1440p or even 1600p displays as it's far less pixels for the GPU to push and virtually eliminates SDE. My personal order of annoyance is FOV, God Rays and SDE in that order. With 1440p SDE wouldn't even be on my list. Question - have you tried a 1440p HMD of any type yet? Which do you have, the Rift or Vive?

If you have a 1080p screen in front of you now, put your eyeball about 25cm away. That's roughly how big those pixels are going to be with two 8k screens..... ....there will still be some noticable little jaggies on hard edges and small text will be illedgeable. Those 8k screens at 120 hz will need a Gfx card about 32 times more powerful than the 980GTX.... That is not happening in the next 5 years. I guarantee it.

Again I think you're 100% completely wrong here, as I said in my experience a 1440p image has virtually no SDE and a 4K one would have zero. While 8K would be a huge jump in terms of pixel density it's not only completely unnecessary it's a long way away. As far as I know there is no commercial 8k display and certainly not one in the 5-6" range. Dell had a large one at CES, 27" I think (or about that) and it's not a product yet, maybe later this year. I will agree that video cards that can push dual 8k screens are 5+ years out I don't see that as an issue at all as it's just not needed.

As for aliasing issues and small text being legible again you need to see a 1440p and/or 4k display via VR - it is a non-issue, even with 1440p today. If my current CV1 Rift was 1440p I wouldn't even bring up SDE and small text other than to say "small text is a bit fuzzier than other things but really not bad". While writing this I put on a random movie, The Martian, on my 1440p phone via the headset and when the credits roll they look fantastic and are totally readable.

Next 10 years...? I wouldn't bet on that either. Try 15 years, and some.

If you're saying you don't see video cards being able to push dual 4k displays in the next 10 years again I think you're *way* off the mark. Right now, today, I can get a Titan X (Pascal) that will run almost all games at 60fps in 4k at very high settings. Remember with 4k you generally don't need anti-aliasing given the huge pixel density. Now I absolutely know that a Titan X is $1200 and that's rather insane for virtually all budgets but the point is we have cards on the market right now that can do that. In SLI, if the game is fully optimized for it (and yes, virtually none are) you could get very close to dual 4k displays at 60fps - again today. And yes, $2400 in video cards is insane and I'm not trying to say it's anything other than that. It's clear that future VR tech will move to support SLI, Oculus has talked about using a separate GPU per/eye and as we move to 4k that will almost have to happen.

When the next generation of GPUs come out in about 2 years we'll absolutely have SLI solutions that will be capable of dual 4k at 60fps and almost certainly at 90. That will still likely be very expensive, probably $1500+ At the same time the next gen 1180 (making up that name) will likely drive dual 4k at some lower detail setting and using something like Oculus ASW tech 45fps will be attainable making dual 4k VR possible. While my numbers may absolutely be too soon I think saying it's more than 10 years out is an extreme exaggeration.

If you look at what GPU Nvidia released in 2007 it was the GeForce 7025. Using UserBenchmark.com to compare those cards the GTX 1080 is 239,476% faster than the 7025. Almost 240,000% faster. Using a curve that's even close to that for the next 10 years and the power we'll have is absolutely insane - certainly enough to power 2x 4k screens.

NFully wireless.. yeah easily. That tech will be demoed in the next gen. I'll be gobsmacked if it's not.

Ding ding ding, here we go, I absolutely agree. I'm not sure we'll see wireless on all next gen headsets but I do think it'll be an option - especially as there are a few 3rd party wireless devices coming this year for the Vive. There are some latency issues that have to be addressed and I want to see what the reviews there are like but obviously VR will have to go full wireless while getting lighter than it is today. Both will happen by gen 4 if not by gen 3.

A fad that will die out? I hope not. I would be a fool if I completely ignored all the signs though.

I get what you mean about the signs but I definitely don't think it's something that will fade out at all. I think one of the biggest problems with VR is how to market it - it's very hard for someone to understand how it really works without seeing for themselves. Other tech, like 1080p/4k TV's, DVD/Bluray, etc. are far easier, when someone says "your TV picture will be much clearer" people can relate to that as they already have a TV. Saying "VR immerses you in the game world" is far harder for someone to really understand having never experienced it. So far from my admittedly small sample set of say 20 people that have tried mine without exception everyone was stunned at how good it was and all commented they definitely see them having it in the future. It certainly won't be mass market for quite a while as not only does the general public need to learn about and be exposed to it but as we've discussed the price really has to come down - dramatically.

it's just not visibly picking up as quickly as I think most companies wanted it to. The Oculus store is a bit... lacking. It really doesn't compete that well with Steam.

This misconception keeps bugging me. Save for the games that require motion controllers the Rift can play every VR game on Steam just fine. Now with Touch on the market all the major titles that required the Vive controllers are adding in Touch support as they want to double their potential customer base. When people ask me "Rift or Vive" my answer is always Rift and a big reason is the software selection. The Rift can play any Steam game (as noted about motion controllers above) AND the Oculus exclusive titles in the Oculus store. The Vive can only play content from Steam. There are many other things to discuss between the two, I'm just addressing software here.

Sony have practically dropped PSVR. There is just so little advertisment.... .....So little mention of it in there tech shows. It appears they don't have much confidence in it themselves.

Again I think this is an exaggeration. VR was all over CES this year and from what I've read the PSVR is actually selling rather well globally. The numbers I can find show 1.4 million PSVR sales to date with Rift and Vive combined are around the 500k mark (that's from Tim Sweeney at Epic Games). It doesn't surprise me that PSVR would be outselling Rift/Vive by a good bit given the cost of entry is FAR lower than on PC. From what I've read part of the reason they aren't doing a huge marking blitz for PSVR is they are still ramping up production. I don't see this growth as a bad thing as there are still many things being worked out with VR and right now there aren't really any big must have VR titles yet.

I don't see microsoft doing anything similiar as they are focusing on the AR tech for business uses not consumer uses.

Can't really argue with this, like normal Microsoft wants to dominate the enterprise space as there are far more enterprise desktops than home gamer PC and Consoles. Over the next 5+ years if they can create a comfortable and social acceptable AR headset (something I'd wear at the office and could still interact with colleagues easily) they could not only transform the corporate desktop but be in a position to dominate in the gaming space too. The notion of them tying it all together between Windows, Enterprise, Office, Xbox and AR/VR could be rather incredible. I'll admit I don't have big expectations here, at least not short term as I think they're really going to take their time with this.

I don't believe it will die out like 3dTV did but with the current amount of funding going into encouraging the production of VR games and advertising.. I can't see it being the explosion we are all hoping for. I wouldn't be overly surprised if it became something akin to home cinemas, as in, a room dedicated to it with a projector. Very cool if you have the room for one, expensive to maintain and only availble to the wealthy. Home cinemas haven't died out, they are still there... and while most have dreamed about having them, few people actually do.

While I sorta agree with your comparison to home cinema I think there will be a far higher adoption rate when compared to people with true dedicated home cinema rooms. In my last home I finished my basement into a stadium seating home theatre, with curtains, lights, risers, 7.1, etc. Not only did I dedicate a whole room to that I spent something north of $10k for everything (without furniture). If I compare that to a dedicated VR gaming room as you suggest I would build that today for say $2500, maybe more if I'm using a surround audio system and not headphones of some kind. Regardless it's far cheaper and the room need not be dedicated to just VR. I know several, Metsys from this thread being one, who routinely move his Vive gear into another room/living room for either room scale games or more for social gaming with friends and family coming over to play. Move your PC and cameras/lighthouses, slide the coffee table over and bingo, dedicated VR room. Or spend a few hundred and run the appropriate extensions for USB/HDMI to another room and all you need do us move the headset and you're done, everything else could just live there making the room easily multi-purpose.

Again as I said at the top please don't read this with any subtext or tone other than I'm enjoying a fun geeky debate. While I share the reasons I feel the way I do I'm not saying anyone is "right" nor "wrong". These are all our opinions and as such I'm really enjoying the discussion and debate. Just don't want anyone thinking there's any sort of malice or attack of any kind here. Okay, enough Kum Bah Yah, time for some VR....

~X
 
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