Analysing the Thargoid Simulation

Are there predictions where the remaining stargoids are going to strike the bubble?

I have a feeling that ua#4 is going to stop in either HIP 15415 (-93,84 36,13 -83,91) or Lyncis Sector UZ-P b5-4 (-91,81 66,97 -98,03)
I've put what I can in the first post. HIP 15415 is very plausible by trajectory, bubble-edge position and AW presence but it feels unlikely that they'd directly hit an inhabited system with a Maelstrom. Lyncis Sector is quite a way off its trajectory - I've gone for Cephei Sector BV-Y b4 as the best fit as it's otherwise as good as HIP 15415, not far away from it, but uninhabited.
 
Noone knows this yet, that is something we need to figure out. What activity is moving the bar towards succesfull defending the most, how are the activities balanced or does it matter how many people paticipate.

AXI managed 6 pips in less than a week with bug killing alone. Somewhere on reddit a cmdr said he rescued over 1000 people from an alert system - zero pips. Did axi kill 1000 bugs or 500 or 5389 ... ?

There is lots of testing ahead.

If I understood the livestream correctly, "rescuing" people from a "alert system" might actually be counter-productive to the war effort, since it is considered "premature". It's essentially people running for the hills in panic, before the enemy has even arrived. Again, if I understood correctly, delivering goods to a system in alert state instead of flying people out, might be more effective in pushing a potential invasion back (basically, people are fortifying and manning the defenses instead of giving up and running away).

Lots of "IFs" though, but it's only been a few days since this war has started
 
Well, if it is possible to halt or even significantly delay a Thargoid invasion, doesn’t that achieve a strategic win with relatively little expense, ie: then “prevention is better than cure”? …except it may not be particularly easy to do this (hunt / destroy sufficient Orthrus) as appropriate to this strategic significance? :]
 
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Umm... why is the countdown moving so fast? Shouldn't the 2nd image be "THARGOID INFESTATION IN 7W 5D"? These screenshots are taken days apart.
 
If I understood the livestream correctly, "rescuing" people from a "alert system" might actually be counter-productive to the war effort, since it is considered "premature". It's essentially people running for the hills in panic, before the enemy has even arrived. Again, if I understood correctly, delivering goods to a system in alert state instead of flying people out, might be more effective in pushing a potential invasion back (basically, people are fortifying and manning the defenses instead of giving up and running away).

Lots of "IFs" though, but it's only been a few days since this war has started
I think the whole "focus on Orthrus" strategy is a misconception from a certain youtube video. Focus instead on doing what the thargoid war information panel says to do.
I think they literally tell us the order of things we should do and their influence.
EliteDangerous64 2022-12-04 10-21-02-54a.png
 
Well, if it is possible to halt or even significantly delay a Thargoid invasion, doesn’t that achieve a strategic win with relatively little expense, ie: then “prevention is better than cure”? …except it may not be particularly easy to do this - as appropriate to this strategic significance? :]

In military terms a delaying action is designed to slow the enemy down and degrade his forces over time. You want to buy time, so you can prepare for an action of your own (to mobilze reinforcements, to move reinforcements into place, to get own forces into position for a counter-attack against the enemy's flank etc.) You slowly exchange your own territory and make the enemy pay in blood and time. In terms of the Thargoid War fighting a delaying action in a system means that we attempt to slow down the progress of Thargoid Investation, without the intention (or resources) to stop the progress completely. Ideally this would be synchronized with other AX forces launching counter-offensives or fighting proper defensive battles elsewhere.


A defensive action is intended to stop the enemy at this position and stop his advance entirely. In the Thargoid War, this means we throw everything and the kitchen sink into a system to defend it and prevent Thargoid forces from taking it (e.g. an important system like the homesystem of an Engineer or the location of a Rescue ship)
 
Someone or some playergroup should take the lead in organizing a concentrated effort to answer all this and coordinate the actions to counter the Invasions. Seems unlikely to me that one of the superpowers or another npc will do this.

I doubt my 4 cmdr squad can defend our home system alone or make a significant impact in this conflict. We need a larger player-organized and coordinated approach!
 
i've always admired the community of players who try to understand the rules of the game with the minimum info given by FDev

the game don't show enough detailed informations/metrics on this war
and i mean real numeric indicators, i don't like counting the pixels of a progress bar :cool:

Fdev wants the players to believe that they have to fight and that the fate of the galaxy is entirely in their hands
but it is wrong
even with an AI orchestring the war, FDev can move the cursor secretly and accordingly to achieve their own goal

when i participate to a CG, i can see in real time my participation and its effect on the global progression,
if/when Fdev change the tier of the CG, we can all see it,
i will not engage blindly in a war until i have this level of information, i'm not a mindless drone

at the moment, i paused the game (my 3 FC are dormant at a safe distance of the front lines),
U14 don't bring anything of interest for me and i don't like to be manipulate

i'll continue to monitor the situation by reading the forums, but that's it, see you in 6 month for the next patch (i have very little hope and low expectations about the overhaul changes anounced for early 2023...)

EDIT : sorry i shouldn't have polluted this thread, i started another https://forums.frontier.co.uk/threads/war-we-need-detailled-numeric-indicators.611444/
 
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I think they literally tell us the order of things we should do and their influence.
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I really hope delivering supplies of Tobacco, liquor and Onion Head (I have seen all three) for a reward lower than the cost to buy them, is the action that makes the most difference. In that case, the War is already lost.

It would be better if there were a bunch of X commodities (like for Wing Mining Missions) that we could turn the whole FC Trading economy towards
 
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The other slightly more disturbing possibility is that a Thargoid attack can focus on areas- have other systems slowed down, or exhibited the same pattern?
That would be disturbing, and if they're capable of recommitting their forces that quickly we may as well go home now :)
Every timer longer than a week that I can see is reading "xW 6D" though, so I think for now bug is more likely. We'll see what they do when they go below 0W 6D, I guess.
 
I think they literally tell us the order of things we should do and their influence.
They use a bulleted and not a numbered list, if it works like any other BGS action then the order of operations doesn't matter, but combat/bonds are usually the least time consuming to get the biggest effect if you have the skills to do it effectively.
 
I really hope delivering supplies of Tobacco, liquor and Onion Head (I have seen all three) for a reward lower than the cost to buy them, is the action that makes the most difference. In that case, the War is already lost
I have seen that too (the onion head is desperatly sought) but these were missions.

Delivering goods is satisfying the market, eg this:

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Supply:

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1,6m per run (not per loop) in my Money Train Mining Conda.
 
I wonder how safe it is to do non-combat activities in these systems? And no, it's not because I can't be bothered to engineer an AX ship, I just suck at aiming.

Another thing is, if these "ticks" of progress work the same as days won/lost in normal BGS conflicts, then it might be a good idea to spread the effort around multiple systems instead of hammering down a single one like AXI is doing. If it's just a progress bar with regards to the effort needed, and not days won/lost, then what AXI is doing makes a lot more sense than the above.

Unfortunately clean tests won't come as easy as normal BGS, I figure all of these systems will have plenty of players passing through and doing their own thing without any records on a spreadsheet. It might be a good idea to watch traffic and see how it correlates to progress to figure out what is the best strategy.
 
Someone or some playergroup should take the lead in organizing a concentrated effort to answer all this and coordinate the actions to counter the Invasions. Seems unlikely to me that one of the superpowers or another npc will do this.

I doubt my 4 cmdr squad can defend our home system alone or make a significant impact in this conflict. We need a larger player-organized and coordinated approach!
AXI is handling the area around Taranis (Hyades Sector FB-N b7-6), Marauders Vanguard is working around Leigong (HIP 8887). There's not a lot of specific direction so far because pretty much everything is on fire - things will likely change when it becomes apparent specific areas need attention more than others.

Another thing is, if these "ticks" of progress work the same as days won/lost in normal BGS conflicts, then it might be a good idea to spread the effort around multiple systems instead of hammering down a single one like AXI is doing. If it's just a progress bar with regards to the effort needed, and not days won/lost, then what AXI is doing makes a lot more sense than the above.
Multiple invaded systems around Taranis are now starting to show purple progress.
 
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