Analysing the Thargoid Simulation

[Ned Flandalorian]

Should be obvious by the end of the week whichever happens... does the in-system map have a "repair target" item similar to invasion's "at risk" list?

There is still a 1 week timer active in the recovery system:

(Those yellow bars are meant to have the names of the stations currently under repair, they are blank when viewing this panel from outside of the system.)

So it's likely all progress will again be reset if the progress bar is not filled by the end of the week...

 

[Ian Doncaster]

So it's likely all progress will again be reset if the progress bar is not filled by the end of the week...

Yes - the key question is, what does "progress reset" mean in this context?

 

[St0rmFury]

Yes - the key question is, what does "progress reset" mean in this context?

The thargoids stole all the construction materials.

 

[Leadfoot]

I've been popping into the settlements currently under Thargoid control to scout things out, but I haven't seen anything unusual, aside from the fact that Thargoids spawn above, sometimes with "interesting" warping patterns:
View attachment 337899
But maybe it will look different after a recovery.

Oh my God!!! They've gone to plaid!!!

 

[Banana's_Are_Good_For_You]

I would imagine if you don't fix the stations then you can't use them and the system will stay at 0 pop. Just guesswork.
Is there a plan to fix them? I see some ppl suggesting high demand goods but it may be more helpful to use the goods used. when a lot of stations were attacked a good while back.
I'm pretty sure there was a group who dealt with that at the time but I've forgotten their name...

 

[Ian Doncaster]

One question to try to answer this week - the Thargoids have gone from 178 to 313 occupied systems, so does this lead to a (very approximate) halving of apparent per-system difficulty?

So far this week: the difficulty level is definitely lowered. If anything it looks like it's a bit better than halved, more like a drop to a third of last week, though the accuracy on the measurements is pretty terrible. This week should provide a bit more data in terms of completed systems for comparison with future weeks.

Next week should be an interesting further test - with no new Maelstroms expected to appear, the total number of Thargoid-influenced systems shouldn't change anywhere near as much as either of the last two weeks.

 

[Banana's_Are_Good_For_You]

I think this weekend will tell the tale if it's worth it to make it easier.
It'll bring some back but i'm not sure there's enough to re-invest ppl.
Some just abhor difficulty, having to do stuff they don't like and those who only care about what they want and shun any other efforts. That's always gonna be the problem, no matter what they focus on, and the only time they got around that was FC's because it catered for many playstyles with new gameplay.
I would like this to last, to become like another part of the game, but I'm a bit worried it may not be all it could be.
I am an eternal optimist though so hopefully they'll find a way.

 

[Ian Doncaster]

I would imagine if you don't fix the stations then you can't use them and the system will stay at 0 pop. Just guesswork.
Is there a plan to fix them? I see some ppl suggesting high demand goods but it may be more helpful to use the goods used. when a lot of stations were attacked a good while back.
I'm pretty sure there was a group who dealt with that at the time but I've forgotten their name...

Typical goods requested in the old station repair mechanism were

Spoiler: List of goods

Beryllium
Indium
Gallium
Lithium
Tantalum
Titanium
Copper
Aluminium
Polymers
Semiconductors
Synthetic Fabrics
Superconductors
Insulating Membrane
Ceramic Composites
CMM Composite
Computer Components
Power Generators
Water Purifiers
Auto-Fabricators
Robotics
Natural Fabrics
Emergency Power Cells
Energy Grid Assembly
Power Convertor

The current set of demands at the Repair markets seem to include all of those and lots of others.

 

[Banana's_Are_Good_For_You]

Thanks Ian

 

[sathlei]

So far this week: the difficulty level is definitely lowered.

Definitelly.

Invasions prevented in systems including: Awara, Ebisu, HIP 25679, 63 Eridani.

High probability of human victory in Imeut, Lahua, etc.

 

[Ian Doncaster]

Also on difficulty: someone on Discord had a go at attacking a no-name Control system solo, and has got it up to 2% - so that suggests a group of 30 or so (if they were all experienced AX combateers, admittedly) could probably retake one at the current difficulty.

(Obviously no guarantee of it being a Political-style clean test, but probably as close as we'll get to one on the Thargoid side of the BGS)

 

[Viridian-]

Are recovered systems fortified or are we just setting them up for the goids to knock them down again?

 

[Ian Doncaster]

Are recovered systems fortified or are we just setting them up for the goids to knock them down again?

We probably won't get an answer to that for a couple of months at least (if they can have another go) and it might take a year to be reasonably confident that they won't.

I would guess that systems in "normal" state are fair game, but as we can't "stop" the recovery timer completing by ignoring it, systems in "recovery" might be temporarily exempt.

 

[Disemboweled Ego]

Also on difficulty: someone on Discord had a go at attacking a no-name Control system solo, and has got it up to 2% - so that suggests a group of 30 or so (if they were all experienced AX combateers, admittedly) could probably retake one at the current difficulty.

(Obviously no guarantee of it being a Political-style clean test, but probably as close as we'll get to one on the Thargoid side of the BGS)

On a related note - would it actually be more efficient to do the signal sources than CZs if "completing" a signal source is fast and well, possible compared to soloing a full CZ with tougher interceptors or broken progression at the end of most station CZs.

 

[Louis Calvert]

Also on difficulty: someone on Discord had a go at attacking a no-name Control system solo, and has got it up to 2% - so that suggests a group of 30 or so (if they were all experienced AX combateers, admittedly) could probably retake one at the current difficulty.

(Obviously no guarantee of it being a Political-style clean test, but probably as close as we'll get to one on the Thargoid side of the BGS)

This report could potentially answer your question @Disemboweled Ego if it hasn't been addressed already. What exactly did that commander do in that system? Did they do CZs to completion? etc.

That'll tell you at least what counts, if they completed CZs then we know that's possible solo and it seems to have a big impact. If they only focused on killing Interceptors and mostly ignored scouts, we know that's probably a good strategy, if they just whirred through thousands of scouts, well then it might be based on pure kill numbers regardless of type, etc.

 

[Ned Flandalorian]

There are no CZs in controlled systems. There's usually (not always) a few random signals like combat aftermath or AX ship signatures, but even those aren't guaranteed to have thargoids present. The best way to trigger combat is to either jump back and forth for hyperdictions or just drop out of supercruise and wait.

Once the fighting actually starts it's pretty easy to keep it going - more interceptors will show up over time, and they're typically stronger types (barely any cyclops, mostly basilisk/medusa with occasional hydras).
I've been saying from the start that the pro AX hunters should be cruising in the controlled systems in wings, with missions stacked from the invasion systems - effectively fighting the war in two places at once. As it is, barely anyone is doing the thargoid missions because the kill counts are considered "too high" to find in 24 hours.

 

[Ian Doncaster]

Here's the kill stats they got: 424 scouts and 22 interceptors (7 cyclops 4 basilisk 10 medusa 1 hydra)
As I understand it, just dropping out of supercruise and hitting whatever showed up.

 

[Disemboweled Ego]

There this from the AX ships signal source where a ship is being repaired that makes me think doing signal sources might be more effective than just randomly killing stuff:

I think in some other signal sources picking up the stuff spawns pirate ambushes etc so maybe just salvaging stuff counts too?

 

[Kryxix]

There this from the AX ships signal source where a ship is being repaired that makes me think doing signal sources might be more effective than just randomly killing stuff:
View attachment 338529
I think in some other signal sources picking up the stuff spawns pirate ambushes etc so maybe just salvaging stuff counts too?

You mean the megaship scenario in Lahua with the "release escape pods and protect rescue team" objective?

 

[Disemboweled Ego]

You mean the megaship scenario in Lahua with the "release escape pods and protect rescue team" objective?

No, the screenshot was form one of the new signal sources (AX Weapons fire or AX Ship signatures) that has a T9 or T10 being repaired while thargoids drop in.

The other time when things are triggered by picking things up would be non-HGE salvage signal sources (with threat 3 I think) and black box salvage missions (probably other salvage missions too).