I will infer from the numbers that the FD team have fundamentally lost the capability of delivering "a lot" from a small and dedicated team.
Ah. There's probably a few more numbers before you make that inference: the Kickstarter raised ~£1.3 million, but ED 1.0 cost about £6 million to develop total. Even pre-release the team was quite a bit larger.
For sure though, their current spend rate on the game doesn't seem commensurate with their output. Feels like they've lost their way a bit.
Spend rate on Elite Dangerous in 2022 (latest figures) was £4M/year
Spend rate in the run-up to Odyssey was £9M/year at its height
There's some operating costs to take out of both of those (which are tough to infer directly), and the numbers aren't inflation adjusted so £6 million now only gets about 3/4 as much as £6 million in 2013, but essentially there seem to be two "paces" for ED development:
- fast (pre-release, Horizons, Odyssey): costs £9M/year+ at current prices including operating costs
- slower (Beyond, 2022 Odyssey Updates): costs £4-6M/year on the same basis
When the game is only bringing in £6M/year then yes, they have very definitely lost the financial capability to move faster ...unless, of course, they were to go for the Odyssey approach, invest some of their stockpile of cash in up-front development, to improve the game to the point where it brings in income at a higher rate in future (during Odyssey development, ED's profit was basically zero).
In that respect their choices are "keep a slow development rate, probably bring in a consistent £2M/year profit for the foreseeable future" or "set a fast development rate, taking at least £3M/year loss in the short term, to try to double long-term ED player numbers [1] and so generate a higher profit overall" (plus some intermediate options for mid-paced development and a lower player increase target).
Whatever it was, that "fast" plan would have to be ridiculously successful to avoid being "throw money down a hole" - especially since Odyssey may have sobered up their projections a bit - so I think we're stuck with "slow" for now.
[1] (or double long-term income from the existing players, or some combination)