Doing the recaptures is the hard part - the only pro-Invasion faction I’m aware of that has ever had the capacity to clear systems that close in is AXI, and we burned out half our samplers at Njorog. Unless INIV throws us a bone on a quiet week I’m not sure if we’ll get any more Invasion-worthy recaptures.
Thargoid invasion - Next target systems?
- Thread starter Aleks Zuno
- Start date
It is always possible that Frontier will eventually make the Thargoids not just sit there content with getting pushed back out of human space.
Not that I expect so, to be perfectly clear. They haven’t shown much inclination to make the war feel like there’s something actually at stake in the ‘real’ game since… I don’t know, the time they introduced tissue sampling as a method and reduced the alert count to 40 no matter which way the Thargoids look? (Which I’m not saying is a bad thing, because the unpopulated alerts are not exactly a fun playground.)
Not that I expect so, to be perfectly clear. They haven’t shown much inclination to make the war feel like there’s something actually at stake in the ‘real’ game since… I don’t know, the time they introduced tissue sampling as a method and reduced the alert count to 40 no matter which way the Thargoids look? (Which I’m not saying is a bad thing, because the unpopulated alerts are not exactly a fun playground.)
Yes - it's a persistent weakness of the war that the two strategies which don't need organising:
- be extremely loss-averse
- do the easiest systems first
... tend to lead to this scenario if the total difficulty vs activity is sufficient to give net gains. (That the groups with more strategic approaches accelerate the process is probably by now irrelevant)
The periphery mechanism might help with the recaptures - the loose 15% of a 10-15 LY system is a more plausible target - except that if that can be done one week, it can be done again four weeks later to make the Alert manageable too. Next time Njorog comes up it'll almost certainly be in Taranis' periphery zone.
Yes - the advantage of letting them place them at 4:1 was that it meant they got enough perimeter that it was likely they'd get a decent number of inhabited Alerts a week as well.
Part of the reason there's so few invasions is that they're getting just 5 rather than 20 candidates a week nowadays.
Indeed by now, I would have expected to see guerrilla Thargoid attacks occurring within some distance of Maelstrom systems, similar to those at the Witch Head nebula. Imagine calling upon @Starsong to defend a surprise attack at Farseer Inc, or perhaps even a previous port such as Wakata Station!
Surely also SNPX fits your description!
INIV is a bit preoccupied at the moment, although it would be fine to help a bit if you can push one of those systems on its way via combat! Imperial combat pilots at M. Hadad caused impressive progress at Omumba (typically 15000 in a week), took Col 285 Sector VN-Z b14-0 entirely (over 18000) and yielded a heavy chunk of Montioch (around 12000 of 30000).
As a matter of fact, I'd been hoping the mutterings about Sol being unlocked for a rather different reason than stated held some truth. Fighting Thargoids in Earth orbit would have been quite an experience...
That's true, although again SNPX is somewhat burned out and focusing on holding what they've managed to recapture. Unfortunately, combat clearing isn't really viable unless you have a lot of people capable of fighting in free-space CZs - which neither I personally or AXI in general have the numbers to do so. Still, I'll do my best to help if I see someone else working somewhere.
I know this is a dig at me, but it fails since I'm too stupid to know what hip 30439 has to do with the list you also posted.
Look., there is no secret I'm extremely jaded about this game and I had hoped that U17 would bring back something that interested me, which there was a tiny glimmer with the spire sights. Then I learn that we already know how to erase them before the end of the work day on thursday apparently.
No, nothing so definite.
- The Thargoid control bar for the systems they're in can be completed if the system meets certain criteria. Most of the spire systems don't and most of them will be impractical to put into that state for months even with focused effort
- Even when those initial criteria are met, actually completing the bar requires intensive effort (not involving research limpets) which is why only three of the nine meeting the criteria are complete, and the rest will at current rates be reset back to zero by the weekly reinforcement.
- We have no idea yet whether removing the general Thargoid control state does anything at all to the Spire site itself (it didn't for their Matrix predecessors) or even if such a removal of system control actually sticks (again, it didn't for the Matrix predecessors) or whether the Spire simply allows the Thargoids to retake it next week. Certainly the spires in the three "retaken" systems don't appear significantly changed yet.
There were about six months - and multiple weakenings of the Thargoids by Frontier - between "winning an individual system" and "winning net systems in a week". And another two months after that before it translated to "winning sufficiently many systems to prevent almost all invasions".
Given current progress, at least some of the spires will last the same six-to-eight months even under the most efficient potential war outcome where recapturing the system completely destroys the spire and even with substantial effort put into recapturing them. Some of them (like HIP 30439 - the toughest individually, but there are stronger groups of spires) are positioned in such a way that they might be essentially impossible to recapture even by focusing all available AX effort onto them, at this stage.
AXI and Vang could both do this, burnout notwithstanding.
It was mostly a counter-example for the notion that all the Spire sites will be soon gone, but I did not mean it quite that harshly! You have the quite comprehensive overview above of course, such that HIP 30439 and various others closer to their Maelstroms will be around for a while, but beyond noting that one can enjoy them I want to add that I hope very much you do enjoy them!
I would say that, while HIP 30439 might be closer to its parent Titan, Cephei Sector XO-A b3 around Titan Oya might actually in the long run prove harder to clear - if it ever will be - because of systems such as Inara near it. And a couple other populated controls within the 10 ly sphere. (Eoto doesn’t count since it is closer to the Titan - unless it somehow were to end up getting included in the ‘peripheral’ definition.)
Victories in 5 Mu Leporis, Hyades Sectors DQ-O b6-3, BV-O b6-3, HW-M b7-3, JH-U b3-5 and IH-U b3-3, Col 285 Sectors KW-M c7-29, KB-O c6-2, OR-B b14-4, XT-Q c5-22, OB-E b12-4 and SS-H b11-0, Arietis Sectors FG-Y d38 and WJ-R b4-1, Njorog and Pegasi Sector OI-S b4-6!
Well done with M. Indra; its Peripheral systems have reached the 85% limit, already they are being finished individually, and ultimately I can warrant them complete by the end of the week. Peripheral systems at the next such Maelstroms are shown collectively; M. Thor is highest (and has a Matrix), M. Raijin affects the most systems—and M. Leigong is a quite special case.
Aside from the obvious disparity in its periphery and the remaining systems being all Matrix or inhabited, M. Leigong is where INIV is trying to bring Hyades Sector KN-K b8-3 into said periphery for next week. Spire and Titan progress is helping nicely with that by providing a strength discount (thank you!), but ultimately I would not want to ask for a full Leigong surge until that particular system will be included.
Peripheries at 07:20 22nd October 3309:
Five systems with 28% — Thor 21–23 Ly, 1 matrix + 1 inhabited, 546–2710 strength
Nine systems with 22% — Raijin 23–26 Ly, 1 inhabited, 312–1199 strength
Five systems with 18% — Leigong 17–31 Ly, 3 matrix + 2 inhabited, up to 8557 strength
Alerts:
HIP 20485 Alert 96% *97.2% — Indra 21 Ly, 27 Ls starport, 678 Ls outpost, 27 Ls planet
HIP 25679 Alert 92% *92.1% — Taranis 17 Ly, 108 Ls outpost, 1960 Ls planet
70 Tauri Alert 26% *26.6% — Indra 21 Ly, 3010 Ls outpost
Nibelaako Alert 16% *17.1% — Raijin 22 Ly, 519 Ls starport
Evictions:
Pegasi Sector GW-W d1-115 Control 24% — Raijin 23 Ly, 2243 strength
Clean-up:
Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-9 Alert 98% *98.5% — Raijin 20 Ly, empty
Hyades Sector WK-L a9-2 Control 98% — Indra 27 Ly, empty, 9 strength
Cephei Sector DQ-Y b1 Alert 88% *89.6% — Oya 18 Ly, empty
Hyades Sector GB-N b7-5 Alert 86% *87.3% — Taranis 17 Ly, empty
Arietis Sector JM-T a4-0 Control 86% — Indra 26 Ly, empty, 62 strength
Hyades Sector PI-S b4-0 Control 84% *85% — Indra 27 Ly, empty, 62 strength
Hyades Sector JH-U b3-4 Control 84% *85% — Indra 27 Ly, empty, 60 strength
Hyades Sector ON-S b4-7 Control 84% *85% — Indra 27 Ly, empty, 62 strength
Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-6 Alert 84% — Hadad 23 Ly, empty
Arietis Sector NS-R a5-1 Control 84% — Indra 26 Ly, empty, 70 strength
HIP 21091 Control 84% — Indra 27 Ly, empty, 63 strength
Hyades Sector AR-J a10-1 Control 84% — Indra 27 Ly, empty, 67 strength
Cephei Sector BV-Y b2 Alert 78% — Oya 16 Ly, empty
Well done with M. Indra; its Peripheral systems have reached the 85% limit, already they are being finished individually, and ultimately I can warrant them complete by the end of the week. Peripheral systems at the next such Maelstroms are shown collectively; M. Thor is highest (and has a Matrix), M. Raijin affects the most systems—and M. Leigong is a quite special case.
Aside from the obvious disparity in its periphery and the remaining systems being all Matrix or inhabited, M. Leigong is where INIV is trying to bring Hyades Sector KN-K b8-3 into said periphery for next week. Spire and Titan progress is helping nicely with that by providing a strength discount (thank you!), but ultimately I would not want to ask for a full Leigong surge until that particular system will be included.
Peripheries at 07:20 22nd October 3309:
Five systems with 28% — Thor 21–23 Ly, 1 matrix + 1 inhabited, 546–2710 strength
Nine systems with 22% — Raijin 23–26 Ly, 1 inhabited, 312–1199 strength
Five systems with 18% — Leigong 17–31 Ly, 3 matrix + 2 inhabited, up to 8557 strength
Alerts:
HIP 20485 Alert 96% *97.2% — Indra 21 Ly, 27 Ls starport, 678 Ls outpost, 27 Ls planet
HIP 25679 Alert 92% *92.1% — Taranis 17 Ly, 108 Ls outpost, 1960 Ls planet
70 Tauri Alert 26% *26.6% — Indra 21 Ly, 3010 Ls outpost
Nibelaako Alert 16% *17.1% — Raijin 22 Ly, 519 Ls starport
Evictions:
Pegasi Sector GW-W d1-115 Control 24% — Raijin 23 Ly, 2243 strength
Clean-up:
Pegasi Sector JH-U b3-9 Alert 98% *98.5% — Raijin 20 Ly, empty
Hyades Sector WK-L a9-2 Control 98% — Indra 27 Ly, empty, 9 strength
Cephei Sector DQ-Y b1 Alert 88% *89.6% — Oya 18 Ly, empty
Hyades Sector GB-N b7-5 Alert 86% *87.3% — Taranis 17 Ly, empty
Arietis Sector JM-T a4-0 Control 86% — Indra 26 Ly, empty, 62 strength
Hyades Sector PI-S b4-0 Control 84% *85% — Indra 27 Ly, empty, 62 strength
Hyades Sector JH-U b3-4 Control 84% *85% — Indra 27 Ly, empty, 60 strength
Hyades Sector ON-S b4-7 Control 84% *85% — Indra 27 Ly, empty, 62 strength
Col 285 Sector RM-B b14-6 Alert 84% — Hadad 23 Ly, empty
Arietis Sector NS-R a5-1 Control 84% — Indra 26 Ly, empty, 70 strength
HIP 21091 Control 84% — Indra 27 Ly, empty, 63 strength
Hyades Sector AR-J a10-1 Control 84% — Indra 27 Ly, empty, 67 strength
Cephei Sector BV-Y b2 Alert 78% — Oya 16 Ly, empty
XO-A b3 is probably either the best-protected one or the runner-up, agreed.
- it's got six extremely strong Controls next to it, which would be a substantial effort to clear: even with an 85% discount they'd be stronger than any successful clearance so far
- it's also got another Spire next to it, which also connects to most of those six Controls
- Inara, Cephei AF-A c11, Lhou Mans and HIP 15415 can't help directly because they're on the wrong side of the Titan, but they can make it really hard to get the periphery that low to start with
In terms of difficulty of clearance, I think the order is probably (starting with Very Hard and getting rapidly worse, to the point where Taranis is the only other one I expect to be possible in practice):
- Leigong: a matter of timing the periphery attacks right to knock out spires and then applying force in the right order to make sure they can't be recaptured
- Taranis: poorly connected, only need to take out one super-tough system per spire, these might be possible with sufficient leadership turning them into unofficial community goals
- Thor: poorly connected, but getting the last spire at Thor will require taking and holding a bunch of fairly tough systems; keeping control of it requires an even bigger fight
- Hadad: also poorly connected, but one side of the spire has a nasty web of strong uninhabited controls. Might be doable with a giant stockpile of samples and the 85% discount - and at least once done, it's probably not coming back.
- Indra, Cocijo: dense inner cores, but the spires themselves are quite a bit further out. Taking out the Maelstrom entirely is probably impossible but getting to a position where the spires are routinely cleared as periphery might be theoretically possible if effort splits have been reduced by the utter destruction of the "easy" four Maelstroms first
- Raijin, Oya: dense inner cores and the spires are in them, I can't see a plan for these that doesn't involve far more force than is available
Surely Eoto at 120000 strength would reduce below the 30000 for Montioch, if pushed to 85%?
In any case, I wonder now whether we should be leaving a few normal Control systems around to dilute the combined strength of peripheral systems. I imagine the 85% limit was simply so that we cannot do Titan and Spire activities exclusively, but with some wildly improbable coordination that seems as if it could be a critical weakness!
Without it, such activity would be forced to complete those systems, therefore to reduce the distances and increase the strength of the full set each week. If we are able instead to leave a few around, perhaps progressively more as we get closer to the middle of one Maelstrom, would that ease the strength and make it much more feasible to remove strong Matrix systems?
Clearly that would be even less likely to organise than keeping an Invasion around, but it needs suggesting if eventual victory comes down to that!
Yes - I'd forgotten how tough Montioch was. Still, that was very much at the apparent limits of capability.
That very much depends on whether the progression cost for periphery clearance depends on what the periphery systems are.
The Leigong and Cocijo figures being near-enough the same despite the underlying systems having very different strengths for conventional clearance suggests it might not.
New to the AX-war.
Does this mean it's useless effort to try to counter any Alarm State in the Raijin Cluster?
Currently doing missions for Nibelaako, just becouse it's my staging system for my Xeno-Activities.
If it's wasted effort, I'll glady change my focus to systems where it makes sense.
It is worth countering Alerts anywhere they appear! The discussion you're referencing is about the plasibility of completely destroying a Maelstrom's cluster of controlled systems - it's always useful to stop them growing any larger.
It's just that I don't have an idea, if there is a real chance to complete the counter-bar in 3 days, since it's only at about 20% right now.
But in the end, one never knows. When all those systems that have 70%+ rate will be finished soon, maybe the attention of the bigger AX groups comes around here too.
So, yes. I'll just keep on doing my share here - hoping for good.
o7
That would be perfect! Since the availability of Extraction missiles we have been talking about to what extent the peripheral systems are a form of exit strategy in the context of a design choice, and pure proportion there would complete the notion that it is. Without changing the actual system strengths, we have:
- Some new activities are present which cause bulk proportional completion.
- The new activities are required for clearing a few specific systems.
- The existing activities are still required to finish clearing most other systems.
- The proportional limit is such that the maximum actual strength gets reduced to be around the average strength of the top ten completions prior.
- INIV has pushed over 30000 before, but yields typically 20000–25000.
- AXI must have delivered at least something like 30000 during that M. Taranis storm.
- SNPX reached similar rates while collapsing M. Oya, perhaps around 20000?
- For a month or so, pilots around M. Hadad were averaging 15000.
Actually Alerts are also subject to peripheral completion, so it was a quite good concern! But indeed, in this case—
For Nibelaako, definitely continue progressing it! Nibelaako is within those outer ten systems at M. Raijin, so it is unaffected and there is no need to worry about whether you should wait for bulk progress there to move it along a bit. Such is not yet shown here well enough in the full lists, given that we have only recently deduced how it works.
That is a concern; it will help to know that I annotate Alert systems in the minor updates if there is a high enough chance that they will not complete eventually. In the case of Nibelaako, it is in fourth place, but the others are high enough that it is still projected to complete eventually (and with 43% to spare!). Historically such Alerts have been a bit risky and narrow completions have become misses due to confidence dropping, but more recently we have seen systems with deficits actually receive heavy attention and completion towards the end of a weekly cycle!
Speaking frorm experience, it's unlikely that it won't be finished. There's a few groups that tend to jump in and clear things at the last minute.
