Ok, it's this time...
I'm trying to figure out why he thinks this ^^^
Presumably he's looked at
the percentage of shares:
2024: 277,500 shares = 2.37%
2025: 1,599,900 shares = 13.65%
The latter does indeed look like the Calder's total share. (
$46m bought them
10% in 2018. Just using v rough maths [4.6m = 1%] the extra
$17.25m took them into the ~13.75% range)
(The shares have been squished and expanded in all kinds of mad ways throughout this time. Diluted with
the shares for Turb CEOs. A zero added to the end
in 2022 etc. I'm not even going to try and follow all those switchbacks precisely :/)
But the former still looks more like Infatrade to me than Erloch. In the 2018 process
they got 1.6% (vs Erloch's piddly 0.22%):
Still not a great fit for the 2024 entity. But a better fit than Erloch at any rate ¯\(ツ)/¯
If we guess that they also increased their stake
in 2020 by a comparable '37.5%' then they'd be [very roughly

] around 2.2% of the overall shares. So... closer to the mark. If still a bit fugly.
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It would be nice to nail this down. Because if it
is Infatrade then it all gets a bit tasty. Because Eli Klein etc
are indeed 'Ortwin's film buddies', to use the GuardFreq phrase...
They
worked with CR on films like Lucky number Slevin (providing a bridging loan
according to the Warlord, but not sure where that's demonstrated). And their apparent
UK sister company is definitely in the business of bridging loans.
That at minimum would fit with GuardFreq's 'this is a loan, not an investment' take on the 2024 put option. And the assessment at the time that these guys were getting a 'finders fee' buy-in for brokering the main investment deal.
But what raises my eyebrows is: The Infatrade part of the deal involved them
buying shares directly off Chris, Erin & Ortwin. SA's
shrach had that as being a £2.77m payday for the three of them, with Chris walking away with £2.18m from that UK half the deal. (And saw this as being the likely source of
Chris's fancy mansion purchase and family trust nest egg etc).
So if they had just taken their 'loan + 6% pa' back out this quarter, that woulda been kinda shocking. All sides just sloshing around in backer cash.
As it is, you've got to wonder why they didn't though. Does Eli 'bridging loan' Klein really see great fruit at the end of CIG's wizened tree? Did CIG pay them off via another means, to make the 2025 buyback option look less of a looming liability? Did they get something else contractually for staying their hand, as GuardFreq suggest?
I dunno. Intrigue all round.
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There's a simple
TLDR though:
Q1 2025 is the Calders first chance to pull their cash out. And it would be all of their cash. Reckon GuardFreq nailed that.