Colonia Expansion

I think they will but be wary of anyone saying "soon" or claiming a launch date because FD hasn't said anything.
They are remaining remarkably quiet on the whole pause issue which makes me suspicious 🤔. One thing though I would think they would want to get it sorted before the next livestream. Purely because i don't think they would want a portion of the audience repeatedly asking about it whilst there trying to show off the new pigmy marmosets in the Planet Zoo section 😉
 
Because of just how much of the galaxy's mass and star count is in the galactic core, you can reach >99% of all stars with a 15 LY range
(Similar question to @Nowski)
This got my attention.
I briefly wondered if the "reachable fraction as a function of jump range" could be directly calculated in an O(n) way (likely no but I gave up early ;)), as well as "has it already been calculated for say 15 ly range?" and then remembered that only a tiny fraction of all stars (fewer than 1 in 1000) have been visited yet.
I guess you're likely to have already identified an O(nlogn) way to do it, and know if it has already been tried for the existing couple of hundred million stars in the databases?
[edited to stop the forum displaying O(n) as O(n)! :ROFLMAO: ]
 
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I think Colonia is FDev's wild card system. In that I don't think it, nor us can do much with it, until it's determined what its future is going to be, or some narrative takes the masses there. Some of us thought it would be humanity's fallback system, for when we were pushed out of the Bubble by the Thargoid. That the war would essentially be 'unwinnable' for this purpose. Especially in the beginning of the war, when it seemed like people were struggling to make a positive impact each cycle. But then FDev waved the magic wand and it became much more manageable. So much seemed to (initially) link Colonia to the Thargoids, starting with the strange emergence and disappearance of Holloway Research, and some of the early CG's to deliver Thargoid/ Guardian commodities to Colonia. Nothing came of it.
Well, they did put engineers in Colonia so they can't think too badly of the region. I thought it would have made sense logically to colonise from there, however, FD may have thought it would strain the servers even more at this point in time, being a beta. The systems are very close together in Colonia so there would be heaps of opportunities if they did open it up.
 
Are you able to quantify this at all?
Not more precisely personally, but the estimates of undiscovered stars are calculated for the saturation estimates at https://edastro.com/mapcharts/descriptions.html so probably someone can give you a better guess.

Spansh's Galaxy Plotter makes it easy to demonstrate that a route from Sol (as a proxy for the bubble) to Colonia is possible even with the incomplete star data; you can then inspect the generated route more closely to see when it starts to leave the brown dwarf layer on the galactic plane itself.

I briefly wondered if the "reachable fraction as a function of jump range" could be directly calculated in an O(n) way (likely no but I gave up early ;)), as well as "has it already been calculated for say 15 ly range?" and then remembered that only a tiny fraction of all stars (fewer than 1 in 1000) have been visited yet.
When I did smaller connectivity things for the Thargoid War or Powerplay mapping, I just settled for the easy-to-write way of doing it which has worst-case On^2 - in part because I generally wanted to know about all connections of a given range anyway, rather than just determining which systems formed a connected set of some sort

nlogn should be possible with a properly coordinate-indexed set of stars (because you can get a candidate cube in nlogn with the indexing, and that's then essentially constant time to check the contents of).

But as you say, the gaps in the data - and the inconsistencies in surveys - are going to be the big problem here. So I just gave the approximation I was confident of, without doing any actual calculation.
 
They are remaining remarkably quiet on the whole pause issue which makes me suspicious 🤔. One thing though I would think they would want to get it sorted before the next livestream. Purely because i don't think they would want a portion of the audience repeatedly asking about it whilst there trying to show off the new pigmy marmosets in the Planet Zoo section 😉
My theory on the colonization pause is that there's no serious flaw that justifies it; Fdev simply wants us to develop the systems and not rush to monopolize them with a single small station... and that seems like a smart move to me. Curbing greed has been a priority for them.
 
My theory on the colonization pause is that there's no serious flaw that justifies it; Fdev simply wants us to develop the systems and not rush to monopolize them with a single small station... and that seems like a smart move to me. Curbing greed has been a priority for them.

They've actually stated that's one of the purposes of the system in one of the videos, to set up single small refuel and repair stations as part of the creation of a path to more desirable locations!
 
Fdev simply wants us to develop the systems and not rush to monopolize them with a single small station
Why do you think people are (in general, rather than in a few specific cases) rushing like that? There's evidence both in-game and from Frontier's statements that the average player who is a System Architect is the Architect for a single system only, with very few players having more than two.

Half of the colonisation claims are within 175 LY of Sol, so essentially inside the boundaries of the existing bubble. They're not chaining to anywhere - if they only have a single outpost so far, that's probably because building things takes time and for the average player hauling even 20kT is quite a big task (playing an hour a day, with good access to supplies and a large freighter, it'd take over a week).

Almost all of the remainder are within 225 LY of Sol, which is still mostly either one hop or two hops from the existing bubble edge, depending on direction.

Most of the ones further out than that are parts of clouds forming around existing fringe systems which got a contact like the Pleiades (or the chain of 2017ish-added systems between it and the bubble). Again, no sign of any particular direction, no sign that this is one person hopping from system to system as quickly as possible.

There's only a single-figure number of substantial chains where people are heading out in a direction - and many of those have been group projects where the systems on the chain will have different architects, too.

It certainly doesn't seem like "lots of outposts in different systems as fast as possible" is how most people have approached colonisation.
There are a lot of new outposts in total, yes: they're an obvious pick for a first construction because of the time limit, and there are a lot of players.
But pausing colonisation doesn't change that at all - most existing players were probably going to build up their first system anyway; players who haven't started yet obviously now can't.
 
I briefly wondered if the "reachable fraction as a function of jump range" could be directly calculated in an O(n) way (likely no but I gave up early ;)), as well as "has it already been calculated for say 15 ly range?" and then remembered that only a tiny fraction of all stars (fewer than 1 in 1000) have been visited yet.
I guess you're likely to have already identified an O(nlogn) way to do it, and know if it has already been tried for the existing couple of hundred million stars in the databases?
But as you say, the gaps in the data - and the inconsistencies in surveys - are going to be the big problem here. So I just gave the approximation I was confident of, without doing any actual calculation.

According to some fairly inefficient (and potentially buggy) code, and looking at a Spansh dump from about a week ago, out of the 148,350,857 known stars, and starting from Sol, you could reach 52,656,542 (~35.5%) of them with a jump range of 15 ly.

For comparison, the corresponding fractions for 20 ly, 25 ly and 30 ly are 52.7%, 65.1% and 75.0%, respectively. Full set of numbers at 0.5 ly increments at https://zem.fi/tmp/elite-galaxy-connectivity.txt — I've asked it to go up to a 100 ly jump range, but it's still working on the rest. Will update the link once it's done.

(Incidentally, if you're wondering why it jumps from 1 reachable star to 2 at a jump range of 1.0 ly, when the star nearest to Sol is Alpha Centauri, 4.38 ly away: that would be because of the system Test, at coordinates (-1, 0, 0), found in the Spansh dump.)

As Ian implied, though, these numbers have pretty much nothing to do with how large a fraction of the actual galaxy is reachable, due to variations in star density and biases in where people have actually visited.
 
Just wondering if anyone is expanding the Colonia region with colonisation?

My main CMDR is enroute there in my FC although it will be quite a while as I'm taking it slow. I obviously can't do anything out there until claiming is unpaused anyway.
Even tho we wanted to take part in it we again cant. We are again left alone outside a new game feature. But well nothing new there
 
you could reach 52,656,542 (~35.5%) of them with a jump range of 15 ly
Wow, I was initially surprised that the fraction is so low, but I guess it simply reflects that a lot of "casual" exploration (or simply getting from A to B) uses pretty big hops, meaning that most of the stars along the way are not in the database...
 
Wow, I was initially surprised that the fraction is so low, but I guess it simply reflects that a lot of "casual" exploration (or simply getting from A to B) uses pretty big hops, meaning that most of the stars along the way are not in the database...
That's my guess as well: if you go where no cmdr has gone before, and pass/route through an otherwise unvisited sector with a semi-long jump range, the chain can only be followed with equal or greater range, even if there were plenty of undiscovered stars filling the gaps.

Updated the https://zem.fi/tmp/elite-galaxy-connectivity.txt file to cover ranges up to 60 ly, at which point I got bored of waiting. It gets slower the bigger the radius is, naturally.

Round numbers: 40 ly = 88.6%, 50 ly = 95.1%, 60 ly = 97.9%.
 
Just wondering if anyone is expanding the Colonia region with colonisation?

My main CMDR is enroute there in my FC although it will be quite a while as I'm taking it slow. I obviously can't do anything out there until claiming is unpaused anyway.
Mi'd been in Colonia for years, then went back to the bubble for the colonisation CG(s). Now back in Colonia, but the only station I can find with a Colonisation contact is Jaques, and it's disabled there. :(
 
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