The Mandalay was the first new ship released in many many years.
After the Python II and the Type-8, you mean?
So it was probably going to be a hit anyway, just because of that. However as far as the ship itself, it is SO good on so many levels. First ship with the new SCO drive, come on, everyone wanted to get their hands on that. Beyond just judging it by jump range alone, bone stock with the crappy modules the thing flies like it's fully engineered. The handling is unbelievable! It's Supercruise handling is doubly-good. It's basically impossible to "loop of shame" this thing and if you do, it takes like 2 seconds to turn around. The Anaconda is a wallowing space whale in SC.
Sure, it's a good ship in many respects (and agreed that the Anaconda is a terrible explorer if you care about doing anything in the systems you visit), but that just makes the point that a single headline number doesn't make or break whether a ship is "good enough" to get sales.
Maybe the Panther will have 1000t capacity but also - unlike either the T-9 or Cutter - be able to turn corners.
Maybe it'll only have a 900t capacity but also a class 8 FSD so it can move that cargo long distances at a much higher rate than the other two.
Maybe it'll have a 2500t capacity but not actually be able to dock on large pads, so you have to load and unload it 80-100t at a time with a small pad shuttle. (designed-for-purpose shuttle with 150t capacity sold separately as Autumn's ship, of course)
The cargo capacity of the Panther isn't the only thing that determines whether it succeeds or not.
I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss the profit motive if I were you.
If Frontier were that into (marginal and short-term) profit over any other considerations about what would be good for the game, I think we'd be seeing rather more than the fairly incremental Mandalay / Type-8 / Python 2 / Corsair designs we've already seen. And it's only revenue, not
profit, until they've established that it doesn't cost them more in developer time to fix any resulting balance issues that turn out to be too important to ignore.
Also if Frontier were that into the profit motive, what they would be doing is feature-freezing Elite Dangerous so that they had more developers available for their
much higher ROI management sims. They already spend way more on it than its ROI justifies in a coldly financial sense. (And that's fine with me, of course, I'm an ED player not a shareholder)
This is completely hypothetical and I don't know how you can state this with such high confidence.
"The real figure is less than a quarter of the theoretical ceiling I had to make some utterly absurd assumptions to get" does not seem particularly unlikely to me. The relevant number here isn't the total sales of the Panther Clipper, it's the
difference in sales between the PC-1000t and PC-1500t alternatives.
If Frontier think they can get 90% of the sales with 10% of the balancing issues [1] at 1000t, that's a much better deal.
[1] Or forget balance, Frontier often do, just the basics of "not having to implement a size 9 internal only to discover that there are hardcoded 8s
everywhere" could make keeping it smaller a more cost-effective idea. Profit = revenue - expenditure.