Trading and the background simulation Issues [ Backwards Trading ]

FX2K

FX2K
This thread is not related to profits or making money like some other threads, this is about over-saturation and the background simulation.
I respectfully ask that you refrain from posting just to state how easy you can make money, Thanks.


Tonight I went to a random system and recorded the following information which highlights a few issues surrounding trading in the current release version of Elite Dangerous. I did not look hard for this, it is still the case in numerous systems.

I visited a system named PULARUNGU, an industrial system with a population of 4.4 million.
This system contains a station Berezin Enterprise and outpost Cixin Ring.
I noticed the error I had previously posted about whereby the system imports Liquor yet has a High Supply, in both stations.

Berezin:
HqdMUrx.png

Cixin:
OvVMedj.png

So, both stations have a HIGH supply of Liquor and a 0 LOW demand, they also show as importing this from Wakawal.
The galaxy map shows a trade route from Wakawal to Pularungu for Liquor.

So, I travelled to Wakawal an Agricultural/Industrial Economy and visited each station, it has three, only one of which is the supplier (supposedly).

Olsen Terminal: (Agri - supplier)
aLgUzY5.png

Virts Gateway: (industrial)
OJdEyQ1.png

Good Ring: (industrial)
tXTmQJU.png

Ok, so now the fun part... I apologise if I have missed anything or mis-calculated anything here (it is 3am after all)

The exporter - Olsen had MEDIUM supply.
The importer - Berezin and Cixin had HIGH supply

Buy from Olsen (The exporters) @ 535 cr per tonne
* Sell to Berezin or Cixin (where they export to) @ 455cr per tonne = 80cr loss per tonne.
* Sell to Virts: 666cr = 131cr profit per tonne.
* Sell to Good: 661cr = 126cr profit per tonne.


Buy from Berezin or Cixin (The importers) @ 475cr per tonne
* Sell to Olsen: 508cr = 33cr profit per tonne.
* Sell to Virts: 666cr = 191cr profit per tonne.
* Sell to Good: 661cr = 186cr profit per tonne.


1) Trading from supplier to consumer in a different system (following trade route - agricultural to industrial)
LOSS: 80cr per tonne

2) Trading from supplier to consumer in the same system (normal - agricultural to industrial)
PROFIT: 131cr per tonne

3) Trading from consumer to supplier (backwards industrial to agricultural)
PROFIT: 33cr per tonne.

4) Trading from consumer to consumer (industrial to industrial)
PROFIT: 191cr per tonne


Surely (1) should be more profitable than (3) or (4) in fact (3) and (4) should not exist IMO.
(2) is the only route which actually makes sense, but less profit than the alternative (4)


Here is the traffic report for one system, just for reference:

5fpQ4tR.png

I hope this gets fixed...this is not the only system or commodity like this.
 
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FX2K

FX2K
Just two more examples but with much less detail from different systems which I posted in another thread, however they are relevant to this situation:


This shows another commodity with over 1 million high supply yet being imported.
The second half of the image is from Gamma showing the identical problem which still exists today.
HBbwJBy.png


This shows a commodity with medium demand and no supply, being exported:
igeeu9e.png
 

FX2K

FX2K
I do know this post has been read by FD ;)
And I have raised a ticket previously too, but with smaller examples of such (more like the second post)

Something else on my list to try tonight:

In the build just before release and just before the AI trading tweak, I also was able to single handedly change a consumer into a supplier..

The station I was at had low demand for non lethal weapons, about 60 of them, a BB mission was also asking for 4 (so a consumer)
The station imported them from a system close by, so I went and purchased 100t of them and returned.
I sold the 100 satisfying demand (although it didn't refresh) and also completed the mission.

Within about an hour, the station had a HIGH supply 240 in stock, prices had dropped and they still showed as importing (now a supplier)
The following day (release day) the supply was 1,200 and still showing as importing the goods, yet no demand or 0 LOW.
Click to expand...

Sadly, I have no screenshots of such but if I can reproduce it in the latest version, I will and this time with screenshots.


-- Additional content--- 18/12/2014

Screenshots of a scenario as mentioned above...
To prevent this getting lost within the thread I have copied it here from post 120.:

Just my last snippet of info, as promised from post #4..
I realise this has already been investigated, but since it was low qty, I could see it happen and screenshot it, just a few extra things to add which I noticed.

Demand @ 1:23am - 49 Low
vh3HuWs.jpg

Demand @ 1:45am - 49 Low but 30cr less on the sell to market price when I returned loaded.
63YEuTb.jpg

So I sold 190t and satisfied the demand and then some.
15 minutes later, they now have 288 HIGH supply, 147 more than I supplied (taking into consideration the demand) and of course the price has dropped significantly.

c0i8k0W.jpg

30 mins later, a mission appears on the bulletin board, apparently they still need personal weapons.
jJDqE6O.png

They appear to consume 1 of the weapons within that 30 minutes:
4kNCkFz.jpg


--Additional Content #2 --- 19/12/2014

Today, due to it being brought up by {SAS}Stalker I did another little test

I decided to try and reverse the damage I had done to the market above...

Stock had dwindled over night, but not by a lot
kyzaTFJ.png

So I bought as much as I could fit in my ship...the Supply quantity as expected dropped during this.

3tDgcnS.png

I then dumped enough so I could purchase the remaining supply and did just that, hence the quantities may seem odd ( I also had additional cargo, but not much)
I was then disconnected, but upon reconnection found the station now had a 72 Medium Demand, the price had increased also allowing me to make 434cr per tonne.. bearing in mind I dumped a lot.. so will be making a loss either way.
28N18BB.png

The demand remained at 72 MED after selling these 125 but the price increased further.
So even though they bought more than the demand, this time around it did not turn in to them supplying it

BJiViQo.png

I could not rinse / repeat this process to exploit it.. which is a good thing!
 
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OvrTehBottm

OvrTehBottm
I've seen this in my travels, but did not take note of it beyond thinking, "odd". If and when I see it again I'll be sure to ticket with screenshots.
 

DocStone

DocStone
Excellent OP, this is exactly what is causing the frustration amongst traders at the moment, the in game tools that some of us rely on for our trading routes (I refuse to use Slopey's or other tools now the game has released) are broken and make trading a complete lottery.

You dock at a station, you go to the commodities market and see a commodity with high supply and a nice wee profit margin. You check the commodity detail screen and it says it exports to a variety of systems. You check the systems in the Galaxy Map using the system view and can see what type of stations it has and you then pick a system based on your requirements.

You select System A as it shows the goods being exported there, the Galaxy Map shows your commodity being traded to the system and the system only has the one station so no worries about landing. You stock up, fill your bays and head off to System A and dock at its station. Only to find that the station is selling the exact same goods at a lower price than you paid despite being marked in the Commodities Market, the Galactic Map Trade View and the System View as an importer of that product.

Or the opposite happens, you require a commodity, check the market, see that a nearby system exports it, you go there and they have no stock and a Medium demand for it.

This is what is wrong with the system. I should not be importing Tea & Coffee to an Agricultural Station. I should not be exporting Fish from an Industrial economy. At the moment it is pure luck that you find a 3 or 4 stop route using the ingame information. We should be able to use the tools the game has given us to play the game and advance, not having to ignore all logic and rely on Slopey's tool to show us we need to export gold from a farm and sell it at a refinery.
 
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FX2K

FX2K
avgroenink said:
Sounds convincing if this wasn't already.
Maybe now it's time to let this rest and give FD some time to fix it.
Click to expand...

I think the more examples and additional detail that can be found, without focussing on profit margins, will only help FD to identify the cause and be able to find a solution.
It may also show the dev's that it is not an isolated instance and does extend to various commodities and various economy types.
 

estoo

E
I've noticed backwards trading in certain commodities since trading began way back in beta, the problem is undeniable but it looks like it's not a trivial matter to fix it. Nice summary OP. Would be good to hear some acknowledgement from devs just to say they are aware and are working on it.

I noticed last night that lots of imperial stations that were supposedly importing Imperial slaves now had millions (literally) in supply and no demand. these stations were frequently the ones offering £40k for 2 of them via missions so it was easy money to just buy and sell at the same station... Or sell them back to the system that was supposedly exporting them for a modest profit.

Sorry at work, so can't provide screenshots of this, but it was around the Cemiess and Vequess systems.

- - - - - Additional Content Posted / Auto Merge - - - - -

FX2K said:
Just two more examples but with much less detail from different systems which I posted in another thread, however they are relevant to this situation:


This shows another commodity with over 1 million high supply yet being imported.
The second half of the image is from Gamma showing the identical problem which still exists today.
HBbwJBy.png


This shows a commodity with medium demand and no supply, being exported:
igeeu9e.png
Click to expand...


It seems to be whenever you see the "0 LOW" in the demand column as illustrated in your screenshot, these are the commodities that are glitched. I'm avoiding them as a workaround, but that seems to be the easiset way to spot them.

Many stations have multiple items like this.
 

FX2K

FX2K
estoo said:
It seems to be whenever you see the "0 LOW" in the demand column as illustrated in your screenshot, these are the commodities that are glitched. I'm avoiding them as a workaround, but that seems to be the easiset way to spot them.

Many stations have multiple items like this.
Click to expand...

The 0 LOW is a telltale sign, yes, but only once you visit the station which imports it.
If I had docked at Olsen first, even though its only medium supply, the price is still below GA. I could assume that shipping it based on the in-game data to Berezin or Cixin would make me a profit even if the profit was 1cr. Except I would have made a loss. It would have made more sense to not be able to sell it due to demand being 0. Selling at a loss can of course lead to the same conclusion (not to sell) but the AI don't seem to agree. I wouldn't expect to be able to buy it from the industrial stations and make more reversing what the AI has done.

It seems like the background simulation continues to send goods along this supply route even at a loss and when demand is fulfilled.
 
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{SAS}Stalker

{SAS}Stalker
There also doesn't seem to be any natural "wastage" of goods. The numbers of the glitched goods never reduce (or very very rarely). Ive shifted tons of gold for the last week and the number is still exactly the same as the one I logged with slopeys on Monday, it never changes. The station has either thousands upon thousands of units and can only display a certain value but hold more and Ive not managed to bring it back under this value yet OR (and I suspect this to be the case) the AI continues to dump goods in at a loss.
 
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Jagax

J
The commodity market is dynamic so it changes with the trading going on but the trade info seem to be set in stone.
 

Ravenov

Ravenov
On a similar note, i'm seeing lots of places with orders for hundreds of thousands of tons of a commodity listed as medium demand, with medium demand prices.
 

LightFreeze

L
it's as if the suppliers are not supplying and the consumers are not consuming.

ie if there is a fixed quantity of item x between 2 systems say 100 in this example and all 100 are at station A and the NPC's are set to shift them to station B.
Then at station A, the item gradually becomes rarer and it's value goes up and at station B the item count increases and it's value goes down.
So you end up with what you are seeing, where to make a profit you need to take the item back to station A

If the background sim was consuming said item at station B it would remain rare there and if the sim was supplying into station A it remains plentiful, this seems to be missing.
 

FX2K

FX2K
Jagax said:
The commodity market is dynamic so it changes with the trading going on but the trade info seem to be set in stone.
Click to expand...

Which would be fine, however in the case of the initial post. An industrial station should never produce nor sell Liquor.
However due to its market being flooded and every employee at the industrial factory being on a detox plan :D they are now a superior supplier (cheaper and higher qty) to the station that actually produces the goods.
 
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