NPC Interdictions - Hard facts and Statistics!

[CaptainKremmen]

Hello!

It seems there are always exciting discussions going on about INTERDICTIONS by our Plastic Pals who are Fun to Be With... the Elite galaxy's NPCs.


New pilots and quiet-life traders can get jumped all over by NPC pirates and hostiles.

Others like a little rough, err, trade. Ahem.


Now, GALACTIC CRIME affects EVERYONE...

• Solo Online pilots
• Open Play pilots
• Private Groups
• Traders
• Fighters
• Explorers on their way out to the deep black, or returning to "civilised" space with a shipload of scans to sell.

So it's high time we draw back the curtain and take a look at what FD have been doing behind the scenes.


Because what I'm finding is pretty darned interesting. According to my testing,

Frontier Developments have been quietly working away at the Galaxy Simulation, putting in place some very nice mechanics dictating our safety or risk as we travel from system to system.


So interesting, in fact, that I'm extending my testing far beyond my original "toe in the water" game plan (2 contrasting systems, 4 supercruise runs in each, then tally and compare). I'm now going to put some serious time and effort into this over the coming week or two, as it's opening up a huge gameplay angle that affects every last one of us.


Okay, then. Without further ado,


INTERDICTION TEST RESULTS


ED Version and Date : 1.1.04, 17/02/2015
Name of Test System: ZEMETII
Type of Government : Patronage
System Security Level:High Security
Interdictions per Hour:0
Interdictions per Trip :0

ED Version and Date : 1.1.04, 19/02/2015
Name of Test System: WAYANO
Type of Government : Communist
System Security Level:High Security
Interdictions per Hour:0
Interdictions per Trip :0

ED Version and Date : 1.1.04, 17/02/2015
Name of Test System: CD-47 990
Type of Government : Dictatorship
System Security Level:High Security
Interdictions per Hour:1.4
Interdictions per Trip :0.25

ED Version and Date : 1.1.04, 16/02/2015
Name of Test System: HIP 21778
Type of Government : Democracy
System Security Level:High Security
Interdictions per Hour:1.6
Interdictions per Trip :0.25

ED Version and Date : 1.1.04, 18/02/2015
Name of Test System: GLUSKAIABAL
Type of Government : Confederacy
System Security Level:Medium Security
Interdictions per Hour:2
Interdictions per Trip :0.25

ED Version and Date : 1.1.04, 17/02/2015
Name of Test System: HIP 12716
Type of Government : Corporate
System Security Level:Medium Security
Interdictions per Hour:2.5
Interdictions per Trip :0.5

ED Version and Date : 1.1.04, 16/02/2015
Name of Test System: MBOKOS
Type of Government : Anarchy
System Security Level:Low Security
Interdictions per Hour:13.3
Interdictions per Trip :2



COMMENTS ON TEST RESULTS

Well, to say "it's early days" right now is an understatement. And I do apologise for only having covered two systems so far.

However, the implications of the above test outcomes are quite significant. There is a big difference in interdiction rates between the "extremes" of LOW SECURITY ANARCHY and the HIGH SECURITY systems.

I was being interdicted twice every trip to the rough-and-ready anarchy port, Froude Dock, in Mbokos System. Interdicted 8 times in 36 minutes... Low Security.

I was interdicted only once in four trips to the haven of democracy, Carlisle City, in HIP 21778. That was just 1 interdiction in 38 minutes... High Security.

And in four longish trips across that High Security Patronage system, I wasn't interdicted even once!


What does this mean for aspiring pilots?

It means: CHECK THE DARN SYSTEM SECURITY!


It's apparent that there is (now) a pretty impressive sliding scale, visible by testing the extremes.

Low Security Anarchy = Very Dangerous!
High Security Democracy = Very Safe!

...with a lot of stuff in between.


I've barely scratched the surface here. There is quite a gulf between the Anarchy system and the rest, and I'm keen to go and discover where other government/security systems fall in between. Most systems in populated space are MEDIUM SECURITY. I intend to try out all the different (major) government types, collecting and collating data for each. I'll put my results right here, in the first post of this thread.


Bonus Interesting Observation

I've been filtering for systems with population over a million, and every single one is "Medium Security" or "High Security".

I haven't found a single "Low Security" system with any significant population. It seems that, in order for a system to be "Low Security", it must have a relatively low population.



CONCLUSIONS

Early days. But so far, I'd say...

• System Security Level MATTERS.
• All systems are absolutely NOT the same level of safety/risk.
• If you're a new pilot or a trader wanting The Quiet Life, try on High Security systems for size! Avoid Low Security systems like the plague.
• For now, treat Medium Security systems as an unknown quantity. Without good test results, I can't tell you if you're looking at 3 or 10 I/H (interdictions/hour).

I can also say for sure that I am absolutely delighted to see this mechanism in play! It's brought some much-needed topology to the galaxy.

Sandro Sammarco, Michael Brookes, I tip my hat to you, sirs.


Right, now I've got that toadying out of the way, here's a whole load more "System Security" stuff I'd still love to see added! ;p

===============================================================================

BORING BLURB


Choice of Measure

I chose "Interdictions per Hour" because (a) it's snappy, (b) it's easy to work out, (c) anybody can get their head around it, and (d) you've got to choose something.

There are a whole world of factors that can affect the relevance of this number. There are lies, damned lies... and statistics.

I will simply try my best to measure things with as much consistency from system to system as is humanly possible.


Specifics of Testing

• I'm using a Hauler, with 4 tonnes each of Superconductors, Palladium, Gold and Beryllium. Tasty! I'll use this ship 100% unchanged, exactly as it is now, for all testing. If there is ship- or cargo-specific interdiction "profiling", it won't be a factor in my testing here. But there may well be such mechanisms in play behind the scenes.
• A test system will have population over 1.5 million. For consistency.
• A test system will have a station 7,000LS to 50,000LS distant, to give baddies plenty of time to interdict me.
• Throttle is set to the bottom of the "blue zone", where the horizontal needle itself is just about to turn blue. "Flickering blue" is perfect.
• I need at least FOUR RUNS before collating any data for presentation. Each run should take at least 9-10 minutes (due to slow-boating the throttle).
• I'm only interested in hostile pirate-type NPCs. If and when the police pull me over, I'll ignore them in my stats. This is a Crime Rate study! haha

I measure the elapsed time, in total, it takes to go from star to station (supercruise flight only), tally up all runs performed, and work out a simple "Interdictions per Hour" number to wave around.


Miscellaneous Notes on "System Security"

For those not familiar with this term, the "System Security Level" is built in to the Elite Dangerous galaxy. It is viewed in the SYSTEM MAP. Note that, in the current Elite client version, you may need to move cursor focus OFF a star, and onto "nothing" in order to view general system info. Left+Right mouse button can do this, as can joystick axes.


By the way, governmental systems are not always the same security level, so don't assume anything. For example...

Democracies seem to be MEDIUM/HIGH security.
Dictatorships seem to be MEDIUM/HIGH security.
Confederacies seem to be LOW security.


NPC Interdiction Bugs

Bugs are an unfortunate fact of life with software. Please report them to FD Support, with video evidence if possible. Current interdiction-related bugs I've heard about (ie. anecdotally), but not seen myself, include:

• Instant Interdiction. A pop-up NPC appears out of nowhere, and promptly interdicts the player. This was a gameplay problem in old Beta 3, so FD added a "minimum time" to hostile NPC logic, ensuring the player could see and react to a dodgy-looking NPC - they did not move to interdict for at least 10 seconds after appearing. That timer may have broken around v1.1.
• NPC interdiction "Escape Vector" chase not yielding expected results, with NPCs winning WAY more often than they used to. Bug? Dunno - I'm submitting to all interdictions.

Bugs I've seen myself:

• Some ships (authority ships only so far) will follow me with intent, but lack Interdiction equipment! They trail me across the system like an over-excited puppy, but can't stop me.
• Imperial Navy ships pull me over, then wander off without scanning or even acknowledging me.

Notes on Deep Space NPCs

NPCs are apparently not supposed to venture more than around 500 Light Years beyond civilisation, or possibly more than 500 Light Years beyond a "capital" system - not sure. After 500-odd LY, explorers should stop seeing NPCs in supercruise, in rings, in asteroid fields. That's the plan as I understand it, anyway.

Currently, NPCs in the "twilight zone", out beyond populated regions, but not TOO far, can be weird. Their equipment levels may not be in line with their location, eg. lack of fuel scoop. Their jump range is also a poor fit to locations they can turn up in. Also, they all seem to be at 100% health, so every single hostile has been REALLY REALLY careful, right up to the point they interdict you.

Hopefully FD will flesh out the sim some more, to help explorers face believable scenarios "out there".



Specific Details of Tests

I'm keeping track of all my tests. Where, when, elapsed times, distance to destination - even the skill level and ship interdicting me. Happy to post this stuff up, but I'm not data-bombing this thread by default (yet).

 

[Herik]

Its not surprising to me: FD does a good job at this; the variability in security levels and their appropriate dangers was always hard coded in the original "Elite". FD has always tried to keep E mechanics as close to the original game as possible.

However CaptainKremmen; thank you for testing and verifying my beliefs...

 

[Ancipital]

• NPC interdiction "Escape Vector" chase not yielding expected results, with NPCs winning WAY more often than they used to. Bug? Dunno - I'm submitting to all interdictions.

Hmm, have you also seen the thing where the vector flickers, or jumps? It makes it very hard to escape. Also, unrelated but also on-topic, I have noticed quite a few Federal (I think) system security vessels in Anarchy systems, sometimes even scanning passers-by.. This is a little odd, no?



Edit: Oh, I forgot to say- thanks! I was wondering idly if they had fixed this yet, and if security levels were having some effect. I'm delighted to see that someone has gone and poked it with a stick.

 

[Sir.Tj]

Unmerged thread.

 

[FiddenUK]

Off to find a low security system then! 2 interdictions in nearly 3 weeks is kind of making my weapons redundant right now...

 

[CaptainKremmen]

Unmerged thread.

T.j, I want to have your babies.

 

[CmdrSimonsen]

I approve of this test.
Thanks a ton for taking the time!

 

[DaveL]

I was getting interdicted by security ships and random "pirates" when i was in Fed space (but independent sector) when i was unfriendly with Feds, when i reached Neutral again, all interdictions stopped.

 

[Arubeto]

+1 and bump! This should be stickied and everyone complaining about being interdicted to often or not often enough should be *forced* to read this essential thread, first!

 

[Ian Phillips]

T.j, I want to have your babies.

Ewww. Don't encourage him.

 

[CaptainKremmen]

Updated first post. High Security Patronage. 4 x 11-minute runs, slow-boating 26,500 LS. ZERO hostile interdictions.

 

[nazartp]

Excellent work! +1 to you good sir! 4 runs per system is not nearly enough for statistically significant results, but the disparity is so big, that it should be enough evidence.

 

[CMDR Space Lurker]

Interesting and very reasonable sounding... explains why I experienced such a great difference in interdictions from system to system during my aimless journey across inhabited space lately... (I didn't pay attention to security levels)

This should mean that the reported interdiction frenzy in the twilight zone between inhabited space and the vastness of the galaxy might just be happening because the system only pays attention to security, and not populance or traffic volume.. I hope FD will tweak that... the Twilight Zone shouldn't be all that dangerous.. imo.

 

[CaptainKremmen]

Excellent work! +1 to you good sir! 4 runs per system is not nearly enough for statistically significant results, but the disparity is so big, that it should be enough evidence.

That's the thing! The difference is just so in-your-face obvious that I'm reasonably comfortable sharing the info in its current state. I'd obviously like to spend more than an hour supercruising across each test system, but with outcomes like this, it looks okay to spread the love to other government/security combinations.

I might do a second pass once I'm done with the major system types... perhaps choose smaller systems instead of the 20-40KLS trips I'm testing now.

 

[Darth Krayt]

Two comments after a little trip to the California Nebula and back to civilisation. There is a bug where when you try and submit the message pops up on screen about "Throttle zero, submitting, etc" then nothing happens for a second or two and then you get the "FSD failure" message as if you've failed the interdiction dance and you're dropped out of super cruise.
As for the comment about 100% health NPCs, I was interdicted by a Python that was at 98% close to a star. The Python was also packing 2 railguns, missiles and some autocannons.

 

[CaptainKremmen]

Two comments after a little trip to the California Nebula and back to civilisation. There is a bug where when you try and submit the message pops up on screen about "Throttle zero, submitting, etc" then nothing happens for a second or two and then you get the "FSD failure" message as if you've failed the interdiction dance and you're dropped out of super cruise.
As for the comment about 100% health NPCs, I was interdicted by a Python that was at 98% close to a star. The Python was also packing 2 railguns, missiles and some autocannons.

Hey, cool. So there ARE mechanisms for injecting more variety - excellent! It might just need a bit more fine-tuning, as we don't see it much.


Side note: Currently testing High Security Dictatorship and Medium Security Corporate.

 

[Arubeto]

As for the comment about 100% health NPCs, I was interdicted by a Python that was at 98% close to a star. The Python was also packing 2 railguns, missiles and some autocannons.

Hey, cool. So there ARE mechanisms for injecting more variety - excellent! It might just need a bit more fine-tuning, as we don't see it much.

I am not so sure this works as intended: I have been to many systems where every ship I inspect while in SC shows the exact same percentage of "hull" in the "contacts" tab. Sometimes, everyone has 84% hull, next time everyone shows as 70%, than everyone is at full health with 100% hull. It's not directly related to the pirate variety, but at least it seems buggy that the whole list of contacts features the same, apparently random hull value.

 

[CaptainKremmen]

High Security Dictatorship added. 1.4 interdictions per hour.

Medium Security Corporate added. 2.5 interdictions per hour.


* Please take these numbers with a big pinch of salt. Low sample sets in play. One more or less interdiction will skew these precise-looking numbers quite a bit. All they are doing so far is giving us a "finger in the wind" rough measure of the degree of hostile interdiction I faced in each system.



I'll add more test results over the coming days! There are loads more combinations of government and security level out there.

 

[Daisuke-kun]

In my experience, anarchy with low security is the worst. I travel there for repairs and always get interdicted by NPC. Always avoid anarchy system with an outpost for you to repair and rearm. You just looking for interdiction spam. lol

 

[CaptainKremmen]

In my experience, anarchy with low security is the worst. I travel there for repairs and always get interdicted by NPC. Always avoid anarchy system with an outpost for you to repair and rearm. You just looking for interdiction spam. lol

I started this test with the extremes of "safest" and "anarchy", and was astounded (and delighted!) by how much more risk was built into the anarchy system I used.


Very pleased to see things shaping up as they are... so far.

I've only just begun to dip a toe in the water in terms of the expected "middle risk" system types. My 1984-era inner Elite nerd tells me Corporate States are "pretty safe", so I was fairly comfortable finding my "Medium Security Corporate" example a reasonably tame place. New pilots won't find them entirely trouble-free, but it's not an NPC predatory feeding frenzy, by any stretch.

Looking forward to finding the dirtier systems that are Low Security, but aren't all-out Anarchy. Some forum members are having a real hard time with interdictions, based on recent posts, and I'm looking forward to finding which combinations of government and security level make Trader Purée.


But too tired now, so that'll have to wait for another night!