No incentives to trade in open(long)
This is a long post, don’t read it if you don’t want to
The post is in reaction to changes indicated by Sandro Samarco, presumably for 1.2. The changes are summed up in the quote below:
Originally Posted by Sandro Sammarco
All in all, the end result of this encounter is mostly likely that the trader suffers some amount of material loss (the extreme being that they are destroyed) and that the combat ship more than likely has a bounty. Depending on player skill and materials involved the result can swing one way or another, but this is most likely outcome…….”Snip”……. Importantly, to me it makes no sense for the trader to perceive that they somehow "lost" this encounter - because the deck was stacked against them from the start.
The only sensible way for traders to assess how well they did is to consider how much they lost. And in a nutshell, this is where we have to make sure that traders can *if they wish* alter their ships to mitigate the loss caused by loss. Tough shields, armour, point defence, weapons - these all make a difference. For sure it's no guarantee that the trader can defeat the combat ship, but - if we get the numbers to the right place - it may well mean the difference between some hull/module damage and complete ship loss, depending on the equipment and *how well* it's used.”
As matters stand there are plenty of CMDRs trading in Open in lakons. Most of the trading I have done (to entrepreneur level now) was done in open. Currently the enhanced risk of being in open is low, because basically if a CMDR is interdicted in a Lakon they submit, boost and Jump out again. The enhanced “reward” is also low, it is just the added engagement of being in a galaxy with other players wandering around in it as well as NPCs.
FD have made it clear that they consider this broken – they intend to extend the period before you can jump to SC so that the traders will face hull damage in a best case scenario, or destruction. I can appreciate that if pirates are going to be able to survive by pirating they need to have an opportunity to force CMDRs to surrender cargo and they can’t do it if there is a ready escape mechanism available to traders.
Based on the quote above the Design Goal appears to be that when interdicted a trader will lose, but if they have equipped their ship for defence they will not be destroyed only damaged.
So “Yay!” the pirates say, finally the profession may become viable. But will it?
Let’s be clear first – the idea that traders are afraid of combat is silly. What they are not interested in is going into a fight when they know they have no prospect of winning, when they know they will face severe costs from losing and when they have an easy and effectively cost free method of avoiding it. Nobody wants to go into a boxing fight when they know their ship will only let them play the role of the punchbag. Nobody wants to be tagged the “loser” before the combat even starts because the odds are so stacked against them that the best they can hope for is to manage to “run away” with hull damage rather than beat the aggressor. Nobody wants to fight a dedicated fighter ship in a T6. There is a reason you don’t see pirates operating in a T6 and interdicting other traders with it – if they did you would probably see a lot more traders choosing to stay and fight rather than run.
So when I refer to “Traders” in this post I am not referring to a class of CMDRs, I am talking about a set of CMDRs while they are engaged in a particular activity. So the trash talk about “traders” being cowards or carebears is dumb. We also go into combat, but when we do we do it with a combat equipped ship. We don’t bring an extremely expensive and yet crap for combat T9 into a combat zone, we bring our vipers/cobras for that. I am quite happy to fight (and win or lose without complaining) but I don’t want to be forced into it by being interrupted while I am trying to trade, I want to do it when I am in my combat ships. And I don’t have to be interrupted – I have a simple no-cost choice whether to volunteer for that or not.
Let’s face it when people are trading they are seeking to maximise their credits per hour, which will facilitate them earning whatever it is they want to earn the credits for and swapping into another ship to go have more “fun”. In general traders are not chugging back and forth because they find the gameplay thrilling and it is their favourite part of the game and what they would spend their time doing even if there were less profits to be made than in other activities. If trading didn’t earn more credits per hour than bounty hunting or exploration most traders would be bounty hunting or exploring rather than trading, at least most of the time. Trading is generally a means to an end. So with the proposed changes traders are going to react with this in mind – while they are trading.
And the bottom line: There is no benefit (in terms of credits per hour) and a tiny benefit in any other terms) to trading in open, as opposed to Mobius or Solo. There is a cost, which is low now but looks to be likely to increase. People do not generally
Volunteer to incur a cost where there is no benefit to them for it.
Let’s divide the trader ships into a number of categories:
Traders with teeth:
Python, Anaconda, Cobra, Asp, Clipper. Maybe the new ships will also fall into this category. These traders face a choice with this new paradigm. They can equip the ships with proper weapons and defence and can continue to trade in open, if interdicted they will have a reasonable chance to defend themselves and either escape or kill the pirate depending on the circumstances. So will they? The cost to the trader remains relatively low – the weapons add weight and fuel costs but with increased risk from NPC interdiction this is probably going to happen in solo/private group as well. Unless it is necessary to give up a cargo slot to install shield cells, if it gets that “expensive” in terms of reducing profits per hour I guess most will choose to get their trading done in solo/private group at a higher rate of credits per hour, before going back to open for combat/exploration after the money is earned.
Not because they are afraid but because they want to make the time spent trading as efficient as possible and if it can be done more efficiently in solo/group they will.
Traders with legs:
Clipper, Cobra, Asp. (I know these overlap with traders with teeth too)
These ships are fast, manoeuvrable and can outrun aggressors long enough to wait for a FSD cooldown. Grade A Thrusters are a normal upgrade for traders because they speed up trade runs and docking. These ships can probably continue to trade in open without any real cost.
Traders with big fat targets painted on them and no way to fight back:
Lakon 6, 7, & 9.
These cannot be upgraded or equipped in a way which will realistically enable themselves to defend themselves without suffering hull damage or much less to fight back, with extended FSD cooldowns. The best they can hope to do is to find a pirate dumb enough to allow them to ram them. Weapons are not really worth installing on these for open – the benefit from having weapons on such a lumbering ship is not worth the extra fuel costs in terms of added weight – you can’t hit anything with Chaff anyway. Turrets are the only realistic weapons to us and they will only tickle while you try to run/dodge until FSD cools down. Shield Cells and Higher Shield classes might help, but the cost in reduced Credits per hour (from lost cargo space) is too high to make it worthwhile to install these in order to remain in open.
In the absence of a benefit to remaining in open the smart thing for a CMDR trading in one of these will be to do their trading in Mobius or in solo.
TLDR:
The cost of trading in open is currently minimal, it looks like it is likely to increase. The added cost will be a higher risk of damage and destruction (so less risk weighted expected profit) and Cargo capacity lost to defensive modules (so less profit per trip).
There is virtually no benefit to trading in open as opposed to Mobius or Solo. The most efficient and rational reaction for traders is not to volunteer for added costs where there is no benefit to them.
It looks like traders in open will need to add heavier weapons (increasing fuel costs) and sacrifice cargo capacity (for higher class shields and shield cells) in order to adequately defend themselves.
Therefore, it looks like trading in in open will be less profitable than in Solo/Mobius.
If the costs are going to significantly increase then unless either:
(a) NPCs are buffed to the extent that the costs (in terms of sacrificing cargo capacity for defence) are the same in Solo as in open (if you need to sacrifice cargo capacity to deal with NPC interdictions) anyway, or,
(b) Some incentive is added for Traders to trade in open (higher profits or something to compensate for sacrificing cargo space for defence)
Traders are likely to vote with their feet and trade in Mobius or solo. Pirating will remain unviable as an earning career path.
![[VR] Mad Mike](https://forums-cdn.zaonce.net/data/avatars/m/27/27910.jpg?1553527108){kind=avatar}
