Just love speculations without even understanding what half of these numbers means (especially Steam one, no matter how I would love to see ED coming to Steam Machine (and Linux), not happening at least for a year or so...). I don't think FD rule Steam outright, just at the moment there's no benefit to go there for them. They can still unlock so much with 100% of profit going into their pockets...
Overall they seem to be handling all things well financially, despite initial nervousness of release. They are keep working on their support team and game. I think ED future is secure.
Yes, so far David Braben (as of 26th Septemer 2014) has ruled Steam out:
http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2014-09-26-elite-dangerous-the-david-braben-interview
Will you launch the game on Steam?
David Braben: No. We've got to support the game with our own back end anyway, so I don't see the benefit of it.
Many it's David's mis-understanding of how Steam works? There are plenty of companies with their own backends that support steam (and plenty are indie, let alone the likes of EA with Origin and Ubi Soft with uPlay). For example Planetary Annihilation, or DayZ integrate with it. Some games needs separate logins - hell even Eve Online is on Steam these days.
I think it does show a level of naïvety in the business to what that avenue can give them. Sure, Steam take 30% - but when they've exhausted new sales through their own shop then it's 70% coming from sales they wouldn't have got otherwise (because 100% of nothing is nothing, when it comes to lost sales) - also it adds up new distribution models and platforms.
As someone suggested now wouldn't have been the right time anyway - I don't think this game would have survived a Steam user review mauling.
I think it will be interesting to watch the GDC over the next few days and see what Valve are bringing. If their VR system blows Oculus out the water, but the only way to access it is selling via Steam then Frontier might want to re-consider, considering the media and users are suggesting it's very much a posterchild for VR.