UNKNOWN ARTIFACT: the rare commodity price angle

nikos · May 5, 2015

PROBABLY LAST UPDATE:

Price at the most remote outpost "south", Sothis, is 180k. Price probably does *not* tell us anything about the spawning point

UPDATE:

Every CMDR with a UA can report here

SYSTEM whether price was checked,
PRICE obtained with full precision if possible (no rounding to nearest k),
whether the UA is marked STOLEN or not.

CMDRs with UAs can do this in any system they like initially, to get the data coming.

New facts:

UAs may or may not be marked as stolen.
We need to re-verify most prices obtained and include the information about whether the UA is marked stolen or not.

Verified data:

System	Stolen	Price	Reported by
Timocani	Yes	181749	Nikos
Gatonese	Yes	181722	Nikos
Lati	Yes	181737	Nikos
Timocani	Yes	181673	Red Wizzard
Timocani	No	242230	Red Wizzard
LTT 12033	Yes	181191	Red Wizzard
LTT 12033	No	241587	Red Wizzard
Kali	Yes	180316	Red Wizzard
Kali	No	240421	Red Wizzard
LHS 3006	Yes	181836	Dr.Evanzan
Peregrina	Yes	174000	Dr.Evanzan

OP:
We know that the price offered for UAs on the market differs greatly. This, combined with the abundance of the word "rare" in the descriptions of UAs point to the possibility that the price offered varies with the distance from its "source", just like other rare commodities. If this theory is correct, we can pinpoint a direction to the source, if not the source itself (it may well lie in a system without a black market, probably in an uninhabited system).

To test this theory, I collated some data on prices.

Galactic average: 220k

109 Virginis: 240k
Hebo: 200k
Timocani: 181k
Gatonese: 181k (own data)
Lati: 181k (own data)
Peregrina: 174k
LHS 3006: 181k

Assuming a rare commodity price behaviour these prices point to the galactic south.

This post by Taleden of EDshipyard fame gives a formula that allows calculating the price at source from the galactic average. This yields a source price of 150k. If this is accurate it means that the source is not 1000s of LYs away.

Suggestions:

We must find black markets that offer less than ~170k. This is probably going to happen south of Peregrina, Lati, Timocani, Gatonese.
Any help in getting a better formula for triangulating the source would be fantastic.
Lines drawn from the places where the highest prices are observed towards the lowest ones, point towards Pleiades or the California Nebula.

I'll update this post with any offered info.

mossfoot · May 5, 2015

nikos said:
We know for sure that the price offered for UAs on the black market differs greatly. This, combined with the abundance of the word "rare" in the descriptions of UAs point to the possibility that the price offered varies with the distance from its "source", just like other rare commodities. If this theory is correct, we can pinpoint a direction to the source, if not the source itself (it may well lie in a system without a black market, probably in an uninhabited system).

To test this theory, I collated some data on prices.

Galactic average: 220k

109 Virginis: 240k
Hebo: 200k
Timocani: 181k
Gatonese: 181k (own data)
Lati: 181k (own data)
Peregrina: 174k

Assuming a rare commodity price behaviour these prices point to the galactic south.

This post by Taleden of EDshipyard fame gives a formula that allows calculating the price at source from the galactic average. This yields a source price of 150k. If this is accurate it means that the source is not 1000s of LYs away.

Suggestions:

We must find black markets that offer less than ~170k. This is probably going to happen south of Peregrina, Lati, Timocani, Gatonese.

Any help in getting a better formula for triangulating the source would be fantastic.

Lines drawn from the places where the highest prices are observed towards the lowest ones, point towards Pleiades or the California Nebula.

I'll update this post with any offered info.

Will be interested in seeing where this theory goes - it's the most "in game" connected one I think.

I and I Redeye · May 5, 2015

nikos said:
Lines drawn from the places where the highest prices are observed towards the lowest ones, point towards Pleiades or the California Nebula.

Interesting intel.

The convoys came from that direction (we think) and your data matches.

digitalscream · May 5, 2015

mossfoot said:
Will be interested in seeing where this theory goes - it's the most "in game" connected one I think.

While it's the most "in game" theory, I can't see it being true given the in-game universe. Think about it - rare value increases with value from the source, because people put a higher value on it the further it is from where they know it's made.

If that were the case for UAs, then that'd mean that the fictional population of the galaxy within Elite would already have to know where they came from, and so they wouldn't be "Unknown" any more; in fact, they'd likely be named after the source itself.

mossfoot · May 5, 2015

digitalscream said:
While it's the most "in game" theory, I can't see it being true given the in-game universe. Think about it - rare value increases with value from the source, because people put a higher value on it the further it is from where they know it's made.

If that were the case for UAs, then that'd mean that the fictional population of the galaxy within Elite would already have to know where they came from, and so they wouldn't be "Unknown" any more; in fact, they'd likely be named after the source itself.

Oh, I agree, but I'm thinking it might have some intended (or unintended) connection worth exploring, is all.

It could be the people on the black market know (the only place you can sell it IIRC) but are just keeping it to themselves for the sake of profit. And since we can't dangle them out an airlock a few seconds at a time to get them to talk, well, we'll just have to figure out what they already know for ourselves

I and I Redeye · May 5, 2015

mossfoot said:
Oh, I agree, but I'm thinking it might have some intended (or unintended) connection worth exploring, is all.

It could be the people on the black market know (the only place you can sell it IIRC) but are just keeping it to themselves for the sake of profit. And since we can't dangle them out an airlock a few seconds at a time to get them to talk, well, we'll just have to figure out what they already know for ourselves

I agree it's worth trying, some of us know nothing about decoding the sound the UA makes, so we can try other things.
The data could be useful in another way, even if it's just for traders who want to know the best location to sell.

gazelle · May 5, 2015

nikos said:
This post by Taleden of EDshipyard fame gives a formula that allows calculating the price at source from the galactic average. This yields a source price of 150k.

Interesting math:

Code:

AVG = 0.7501 * BUY + 7898
AVG-7898 = 0.7501 * BUY
BUY = (AVG-7898) / 0.7501

(220000-7898) / 0.7501 = ~300811

If the black market only offers 50% then you can half the value.

nikos · May 5, 2015

gazelle said:
Interesting math:

Code:

AVG = 0.7501 * BUY + 7898 AVG-7898 = 0.7501 * BUY BUY = (AVG-7898) / 0.7501 (220000-7898) / 0.7501 = ~300811

If the black market only offers 50% then you can half the value.

Almost: the 50% is not the black market mark-down as, after all, all reported prices are from black markets. It's because of a comment by Taleden in the post I linked that basically says that the selling price for a rare good at origin is half the buying price.

Thanks for verifying in any case.

nikos · May 5, 2015

I and I Redeye said:
I agree it's worth trying, some of us know nothing about decoding the sound the UA makes, so we can try other things.
The data could be useful in another way, even if it's just for traders who want to know the best location to sell.

Actually it's the worst location to sell, as it would offer the lowest price!

mossfoot · May 5, 2015

nikos said:
Actually it's the worst location to sell, as it would offer the lowest price!

Ah, but you'd know which direction to go as far away from as possible to get the best

gazelle · May 5, 2015

I made a chart using one of my rare price development function. It's still in development, so it's probably not very accurate:

How to read the chart: The blue line is with a turning point at 100ly, the red one at 150ly. So, if the price is 180k the blue one would suggest 95ly from origin and the red one 145ly.

I'm just in the process of data gathering for rares and 100 - 150ly are the ranges I came across so far.

Shuruga · May 5, 2015

OK, OK, those threads get reaally difficult to follow.

Reposting here, what I added to the original thread just a while ago:
https://forums.frontier.co.uk/showthread.php?t=141038&page=267&p=2193430&highlight=#post2193430
- This would be my design of experiment.

Nikos also had kindly linked the math plot in the original thread:
https://forums.frontier.co.uk/showthread.php?t=89057
- Now I didn't know that the curve was specifically for Lavian Brandy, but I assume every item has an galactic average price and the relation should still be general.

I will be going into the game now to try to get some precise price data. There is also a manual triangulation possible, if you always follow the cheapest price. But I don't know if the ship will hold out long.

BTW if the price is average at 109 Virginis, then I fear this was the wrong trail.
Edit1: This seems OK.
Edit2: Is it possible to depict the first derivative of the equations shown?

Zulu Romeo · May 5, 2015

If, as the hafnium thread hypothesises, hafnium stabilises the UA so that it does not damage (or cause as much damage to) the ship internals, then this and other transport-related trails can be expanded upon greatly.

nikos · May 5, 2015

Shuruga said:
BTW if the price is average at 109 Virginis, then I fear this was the wrong trail.

Good stuff, but why do you think that an average price at 109 Virginis is a bad thing? Remember, players do not necessarily pick up the UA where it was found!

Commander Baracus · May 5, 2015

I did wonder about other ways of trying to figure out where its from. Assuming its only found in an approximately linear region, to simulate the idea of it being transported, I went to the galaxy map and got a sighting along the line from Timocani to 109 Virginis. One side of this line leads towards an area between the Pleiades and the Witch Nebula. So this would fit your idea about it coming from that general direction.

Shuruga · May 5, 2015

nikos said:
Good stuff, but why do you think that an average price at 109 Virginis is a bad thing? Remember, players do not necessarily pick up the UA where it was found!

Oh my bad. I had meant minimum price. This would mean the spawning point is the original source location, invalidating the method. Everything is fine then.

Palidin · May 5, 2015

Considering that Timocani / Gatonese / Lati are ~150 ly from Peregrina. Which is selling for 175k, according to the given graph you still have another 75ly to go in that direction. Recommended search coordinates:

low -54.5071268 -131.3388407 -230.9867875
hi -45.82787909 -137.6423819 -231.3193864
med -50.05663664 -126.8883505 -241.075621

These are all 75ly further from the direction of Timocani / Gatonese / Lati to Peregrina

- - - Updated - - -

Looking at the graph again, you might want to extrapolate the distance another 130ly from Peregrina in the direction of those coordinates, but at least you get the general direction

Jackie Silver · May 5, 2015

This is excellent. The new Sirius Corp colonies stretch out that way and should allow for good triangulation!

IIRR they're:

Te Kaha, HIP 8396, Takurua, Almagest, Robigo, Ceos, Sothis (and Cao Junga which isn't actually Sirius Corp)

Big long baseline.

(and on the far extreme you've got Pratchett's Disc which is a couple of hundred years core-ward from Sol)

Zulu Romeo · May 5, 2015

Jackie Silver said:
This is excellent. The new Sirius Corp colonies stretch out that way and should allow for good triangulation!

IIRR they're:

Te Kaha, HIP 8396, Takurua, Almagest, Robigo, Ceos, Sothis (and Cao Junga which isn't actually Sirius Corp)

Big long baseline.

That's a very good point. How much does the Sirius Corporation know about these unknown artefacts? Maybe that's why they're colonising out there...

mossfoot · May 5, 2015

Zion Ravescene said:
That's a very good point. How much does the Sirius Corporation know about these unknown artefacts? Maybe that's why they're colonising out there...

Just so long as it's not Weyland Yutani