UNKNOWN ARTIFACT: the rare commodity price angle

[Patau82]

just what I needed, could one of you guys take a look at the data I gathered in the last few posts of this thread
https://forums.frontier.co.uk/showthread.php?t=63119&page=150
I've gathered info on a rare commodity I found during the hunt for UA, Pavonis Ear Grubs. The source of this commodity is currently unknown probably because it is illegal in the system that produces it.
Looking at the data I've gathered it looks like Delta Pavonis is the source but I would great if some one could confirm it

 

[Palidin]

I was using the provided graph by Gazelle to determine the aprox distance to go. I'm not sure how he figured out the parameters for the err function required to calculate it. Maybe I'll some further research on the expected parameters for this function later.

 

[Ian Doncaster]

While it's the most "in game" theory, I can't see it being true given the in-game universe. Think about it - rare value increases with value from the source, because people put a higher value on it the further it is from where they know it's made.

If that were the case for UAs, then that'd mean that the fictional population of the galaxy within Elite would already have to know where they came from, and so they wouldn't be "Unknown" any more; in fact, they'd likely be named after the source itself.

Not necessarily - as a constant number of ships travel outbound with rares, the density of rare-carrying ships will decrease. A person at a single point will still be able to measure the density of rare traffic without needing to know the source, and price accordingly. If we assume the occasional invisible NPC investigator doing the same things - or just selling them without curiosity - then UAs will be sold much less often far from their source than near it, and so will fetch a higher price.

Pleiades cluster was connected to INRA, the Thargoids, and the Alliance in FFE - so maybe there's something still out there (no explorers have reported finding anything unusual there, have they ... but then, how many explorers investigate signal sources?)

 

[gazelle]

I was using the provided graph by Gazelle to determine the aprox distance to go. I'm not sure how he figured out the parameters for the err function required to calculate it. Maybe I'll some further research on the expected parameters for this function later.

I'm using the Generalised logistic function with the following parameter:

A: the buy price
K: double galactic average
B: 1/15 (the best fit I get)
v: 1 (not used)
Q: 1 (not used)
M: turning point (between 100 and 150, depending of rare)

 

[Huros]

I think this theory -Especially the Sirius Corp stuff- has legs. Why wouldn't a corporation want these things and if they were starting colonies, how better to find them....

 

[Palidin]

I've looked out in the area, it looks like there is nothing down there. I might go down and explore there just for fun. But I expect to find nothing.

 

[Dr.Evanzan]

Okay, just skimmed this thread after catching up on the main Unknown Artefact thread.

Do we have any confirmation that the price in 109 Virginis and He Bo are correct (to the nearest 1k)?

I sourced the prices at Peregrina and LHS 3006 and you can see the Timocani price in Red Wizzard's original screenshots.
Adding in Nikos data for Gatonese and Lati, my hypothesis was that this is just a normal commodity.
I think the 242k is the list price based on the commodity screenshot for 1.3 (re-posted by Tinman in the main UA thread).
The 181k is then 0.75 of this value, which I think is the standard discount you get for selling at a black market (since the change in a previous patch).
The Peregrina price (at 174k) is probably just a standard variation in price based on the low demand (Talos 2 is poor, tiny population, IIRC).

I plan to do some more recordings and experimentation with the UA I got, so I can try to double check but I don't really want to trek all the way over to 109 Virginis if I don't have to (with the UA eating my components)!

 

[Palidin]

I'm inclined to agree, there is nothing out here in the Pleiades sector. Lots of nice G stars to scan, but I doubt I'll find an undiscovered station.

 

[gazelle]

I also don't think it follows a rare price curve. There are allready 3 entries with the same price but different systems, which seems unlikely with an rare and if the black market gives 75% the lower bound would be >220k.

 

[nikos]

Okay, just skimmed this thread after catching up on the main Unknown Artefact thread.

Do we have any confirmation that the price in 109 Virginis and He Bo are correct (to the nearest 1k)?

I sourced the prices at Peregrina and LHS 3006 and you can see the Timocani price in Red Wizzard's original screenshots.
Adding in Nikos data for Gatonese and Lati, my hypothesis was that this is just a normal commodity.
I think the 242k is the list price based on the commodity screenshot for 1.3 (re-posted by Tinman in the main UA thread).
The 181k is then 0.75 of this value, which I think is the standard discount you get for selling at a black market (since the change in a previous patch).
The Peregrina price (at 174k) is probably just a standard variation in price based on the low demand (Talos 2 is poor, tiny population, IIRC).

I plan to do some more recordings and experimentation with the UA I got, so I can try to double check but I don't really want to trek all the way over to 109 Virginis if I don't have to (with the UA eating my components)!

As you can see through the links in the original post, 109 Virginis and He Bo are both indirect observations. Gatonese and Lati are real UA prices and I can add the full figure not rounded to the nearest 1k if you like (don't ask what happened to the UA I was using for these...)

As to the variation, I was under the impression rare goods are not affected by supply/demand, only distance to source and starting/ending prices.

As to the 0.75 factor: all prices are for UAs in black markets, there should be no correction needed as all prices are scaled down proportionally.

I'll add (and we need) every confirmed price you can get with the UA from any black market (it doesn't have to be as far as 109 V).

- - - Updated - - -

I also don't think it follows a rare price curve. There are allready 3 entries with the same price but different systems, which seems unlikely with an rare and if the black market gives 75% the lower bound would be >220k.

People get confused with this 75% markdown, but it is a red herring: all price sightings (of mine at least) are from black markets, therefore the markdown is already included. It could well be a rare commodity and have the same price in 3 different systems provided they are all roughly equidistant from the source.

 

[nikos]

I'm inclined to agree, there is nothing out here in the Pleiades sector. Lots of nice G stars to scan, but I doubt I'll find an undiscovered station.

We are not necessarily looking for a station. For all we know the "source" is not an inhabited system!

 

[Dr.Evanzan]

People get confused with this 75% markdown, but it is a red herring: all price sightings (of mine at least) are from black markets, therefore the markdown is already included. It could well be a rare commodity and have the same price in 3 different systems provided they are all roughly equidistant from the source.

The relevance here is that I think someone got confused by the 242k on the original image rather than looking at the black market price for the 109 Virginis entry (later posts indicated they weren't sure about the price, I think).
If He Bo is also an approximation (I didn't see where that one was mentioned in the main thread) then the only confirmed sightings are around the 180k mark, which then goes against the Rare Commodity theory.

In any case, I can't test any longer because I'm an idiot and can't cargo scoop correctly!
I was trying to grab better video of the UA audio and managed to destroy it while scooping it back up, such was my hurry to get it before it decayed.
If anyone wants me, I'll be searching SSS and hope I'm lucky enough to find another one!

 

[gazelle]

As to the variation, I was under the impression rare goods are not affected by supply/demand, only distance to source and starting/ending prices.

If you have three systems with nearly the same price you can allready draw a line onto the galaxy map where the source must lie on.

 

[RedWizzard]

Galactic average: 220k

109 Virginis: 240k
Hebo: 200k
Timocani: 181k
Gatonese: 181k (own data)
Lati: 181k (own data)
Peregrina: 174k
LHS 3006: 181k

Note that there is a difference in price depending on whether the UA is marked as stolen or not. Somehow I got one which is not marked stolen and it's price is around 240k. I also have a couple that are marked stolen and their price is only around 180k, at the same station. So I think that 109 Virginis price is for a non-stolen UA and is not comparable to the others.

Here are the prices I have got so far:
Timocani/Pennington Station (orgin of UA): Stolen 181673, Non-stolen 242230.
LTT 12033/Thorne Port (15.31 Ly from origin): Stolen 181191, Non-stolen 241587.
Kali/Lerner Terminal (64.44 Ly from origin): Stolen 180316, Non-stolen 240421.

Looks to be dropping off slightly with distance from the origin for the UA, or it's dropping off in the distance I'm travelling for another reason.

 

[I and I Redeye]

Note that there is a difference in price depending on whether the UA is marked as stolen or not. Somehow I got one which is not marked stolen and it's price is around 240k. I also have a couple that are marked stolen and their price is only around 180k, at the same station. So I think that 109 Virginis price is for a non-stolen UA and is not comparable to the others.

Here are the prices I have got so far:
Timocani/Pennington Station (orgin of UA): Stolen 181673, Non-stolen 242230.
LTT 12033/Thorne Port (15.31 Ly from origin): Stolen 181191, Non-stolen 241587.
Kali/Lerner Terminal (64.44 Ly from origin): Stolen 180316, Non-stolen 240421.

Looks to be dropping off slightly with distance from the origin for the UA, or it's dropping off in the distance I'm travelling for another reason.

So it's not even behaving like a normal rare?
I don't know what to make of it. Maybe the faction we sell it to has an affect, like if its anarchy or Fed or Empire.

 

[Shuruga]

Note that there is a difference in price depending on whether the UA is marked as stolen or not. Somehow I got one which is not marked stolen and it's price is around 240k. I also have a couple that are marked stolen and their price is only around 180k, at the same station. So I think that 109 Virginis price is for a non-stolen UA and is not comparable to the others.

Here are the prices I have got so far:
Timocani/Pennington Station (orgin of UA): Stolen 181673, Non-stolen 242230.
LTT 12033/Thorne Port (15.31 Ly from origin): Stolen 181191, Non-stolen 241587.
Kali/Lerner Terminal (64.44 Ly from origin): Stolen 180316, Non-stolen 240421.

Looks to be dropping off slightly with distance from the origin for the UA, or it's dropping off in the distance I'm travelling for another reason.

OK, where the prices are the same, this means they should be equidistant to the original location. This means if our price theory holds up, it should be equally distant from Gatonese, Lati, LHS 3006 and Timocani. However, if these systems are already very close together (by the above ranges 15 and 50 LY), this means we have to put some really long distances in between to have better accuracy.

I did reach 109 Virginis yesterday evening with my exploration-fitted Asp and dropped into any SSS, USS and WSS I could find. I only had one encounter with three type 9 federal navy ships, but these did not fit our target description, no Anaconda support. It was overall not easy to hold up against some of the encounters, so I went and installed 6 Pulse Lasers and a 4D shield. I now have a jump range of 32 LY precisely and my plan is to make at least 3-4 jumps to get info on prices.

In my design of experiment I didn't account for that the UA are illegal and have to be sold at black markets. This will limit the choice of available outposts. Also I noted, that if you view the galactic map by population (just up the first notch) there is a sharp drop in inhabited systems near Peregrina. This means we should try to get some values in between and I would say around at least 100 LY spaced apart.

But first I have to get to work, experiments delayed until the evening.

 

[Iron Orchid]

Note that there is a difference in price depending on whether the UA is marked as stolen or not. Somehow I got one which is not marked stolen and it's price is around 240k. I also have a couple that are marked stolen and their price is only around 180k, at the same station. So I think that 109 Virginis price is for a non-stolen UA and is not comparable to the others.

Here are the prices I have got so far:
Timocani/Pennington Station (orgin of UA): Stolen 181673, Non-stolen 242230.
LTT 12033/Thorne Port (15.31 Ly from origin): Stolen 181191, Non-stolen 241587.
Kali/Lerner Terminal (64.44 Ly from origin): Stolen 180316, Non-stolen 240421.

Looks to be dropping off slightly with distance from the origin for the UA, or it's dropping off in the distance I'm travelling for another reason.

It's 25% off for the stolen item. So if the peregrina one was marked as stolen the "proper" price would have been about 232k which is different to the others. The theory could still hold if the stations recorded were at or above the max range so the price doesn't move. Trouble is 232cr isn't far from the average (can we assume average price is 100ly from source?) So within 100ly of Peregrina. Without checking the coords of the others are they just too far away to be any use

 

[nikos]

Note that there is a difference in price depending on whether the UA is marked as stolen or not. Somehow I got one which is not marked stolen and it's price is around 240k. I also have a couple that are marked stolen and their price is only around 180k, at the same station. So I think that 109 Virginis price is for a non-stolen UA and is not comparable to the others.

Here are the prices I have got so far:
Timocani/Pennington Station (orgin of UA): Stolen 181673, Non-stolen 242230.
LTT 12033/Thorne Port (15.31 Ly from origin): Stolen 181191, Non-stolen 241587.
Kali/Lerner Terminal (64.44 Ly from origin): Stolen 180316, Non-stolen 240421.

Looks to be dropping off slightly with distance from the origin for the UA, or it's dropping off in the distance I'm travelling for another reason.

That's very interesting data! For some reason your "stolen" prices are slightly different (in the lower 3 digits) than the ones I obtained (but not by much).

Also, to iterate: the "source" we are looking for is not the place players picked up the UA (we know which one it is after all!). It is the in-game location where the item was originally "found" by NPCs, prior to it being transported by the fleet in the strong signal source. My hope is that locating this place will reveal something new, either by simply exploring it or by bringing a UA back to it.

Just to make doubly clear: did you get the non-stolen prices from the normal commodity market?
- - - Updated - - -

So it's not even behaving like a normal rare?
I don't know what to make of it. Maybe the faction we sell it to has an affect, like if its anarchy or Fed or Empire.

It can still behave like a rare if we assume the "origin" is not the system players first acquired the UA, but the game location where NPCs supposedly first found it.

 

[nikos]

A summary of new data (I'll update the original OP too):

• The UA may or may not be marked as stolen. This affects both which market it can be sold/priced at (black/commodity) as well as its price (%75 or %100 respectively). This fact may invalidate some of the price reports that do not make clear which market the price comes from.
• The above fact also means that we need to re-verify the galactic average as coming from commodity or black markets, because this feeds into the calculation of the price at "origin".
• Everyone with a UA can dock at their station/outpost of interest and simply report the price of their UA, indicating clearly the SYSTEM, PRICE (not rounded to nearest k) and whether it comes from COMMODITY or BLACK market. This will help tremendously with locating the origin.

 

[Huros]

A summary of new data (I'll update the original OP too):

• The UA may or may not be marked as stolen. This affects both which market it can be sold/priced at (black/commodity) as well as its price (%75 or %100 respectively). This fact may invalidate some of the price reports that do not make clear which market the price comes from.
• The above fact also means that we need to re-verify the galactic average as coming from commodity or black markets, because this feeds into the calculation of the price at "origin".
• Everyone with a UA can dock at their station/outpost of interest and simply report the price of their UA, indicating clearly the SYSTEM, PRICE (not rounded to nearest k) and whether it comes from COMMODITY or BLACK market. This will help tremendously with locating the origin.

ok so we need more data for a proper analysis. lets reduce the variables. focus on blackmarket only. we need 20 blackmarket prices and their coordinates/planet names in a 50 LY radius from Timocani.

then we might be able to plot the general direction of the reducing value vector. repeat again around the lowest price and do again until we reach a volume of space we can work on. not ignore and passed on my UA last night so we need those with US to step up and do this.