The thing is, I do not see people dropping off the game as being proof that it will die....... But I am no money man so i accept I may be wrong, but elite has been out for what, 9 months now (for those who had access to gamma).
I dunno about you, but I have bought loads of games which I personally have reduced my playtime on after 9 months of gaming on (elite for me is NOT one of those titles, I still play it a lot).
but is it such a bad thing if after 9 months people relagate it from their "play all of the time" pile to their " have a breather & come back to at a later date" pile?.
So long as FD continue to add stuff, many people (not all) who walk away for a few months will continue to come back to it imo, and so long as people like the core of the game, imo they will still consider buying future content if it looks good and is not too expensive.
As i said, I am not a money man, so i have no idea what profits FD need to make the game a continual going concern, however with no big name actors, no major licencing issues to have to pay for "random pop idol crud hits" music tracks, & no real life trade marks in there I cant imagine its production costs are as high as your average EA title.
ED is a niche title.... it was kickstarted on the promise of it being a niche title. Whilst I am sure FD would celebrate if they got COD or GTA like sales, I do not for one second believe their profit predictions were ever banking on that.
take it to the other extreme, ED is WAY less of a niche title than say ETS2 or DCS World and yet both of these titles seem to survive and indeed keep churning out more content, so why not elite, which I suspect makes more money than either of those titles.