The Star Citizen Thread v 3.0

[Witzo]

I was reading this about the Mars One living-on-Mars plan, and was reminded of Star Citizen.

"And again Lansdorp said the Mars One plan will likely change. The budget and timeline on the company's website is simply based on the best information it had at the time, Lansdorp said.
"We'll continue to update our plan with the data we get," Lansdorp said."
http://www.techinsider.io/mars-one-mit-students-mission-not-feasible-debate-2015-8#ixzz3jYiLbOb7

"Will it take longer to deliver all this? Of course! When the scope changes, the amount of time it will take to deliver all the features naturally increases."
https://robertsspaceindustries.com/comm-link/transmission/14839-Letter-From-The-Chairman

 

[SentineI]

Considering the game's scope a 2017/18 release date would be preety good! 5 years doesnt seem that far out, As long the updates and modules keep getting added and funds remain steady they will be fine!

There's no way they could delay release that long, without going bankrupt, given the current cliff that pledges have fallen over since June (*before* the whole Derek Smart debacle) :
https://robertsspaceindustries.com/funding-goals
(If you change to Months, then you will see that they were getting $2.8 million per month, but since June that's dropped to $0.9 million per month. i.e. 1/3 of what they were getting.)

They apparently(*) have a monthly burn rate of approximately $3 million. Which equates to $36 million per year. Assuming they maintain $0.9 mil pledges per month (optimistic IMHO), that's $11 million per year in pledges. So $36-$11 = $25 million of capital spent per year.

They've raised $87 million of total funds. I don't know how much they've already spent, but they've been going for nearly 3 years (since the Kickstarter). If SC took until the end of 2017 to be released (i.e. 2 more years), that would require $50 million of capital for those 2 years. Which means they'd need to have spent less than $37 million in the last 3 years (including the expensive Squadron 42 filming). That's simply not plausible.

On the other hand, they must have averaged LESS than $87/3 = $29 million per year for the last 3 years, or they would have already spent their entire funds. Since $29 < $36 (million per year), it does not seem unreasonable that they might have already spent the vast majority of their $87 million of funds. How much longer can they go on for, given current pledge levels? I have no idea, but way less than 2 years.


(* = the estimated figure of $3 million comes from Derek Smart, so take it with a pinch of salt... however, it's not far off what some SC fans estimated a year ago, and costs have probably increased since then: https://www.reddit.com/r/starcitizen/comments/2dw81d/what_is_the_burn_rate/ )

 

[Confucios]

Star Citizen received more than 1 million$ per month for 25 consecutive months. This last 2 months were slow on the pledge side, because there were no updates and because Chris Roberts was absent filming the Single Player motion capture sequences in England, they still got 930k in their "worst" month (july). After the Gamescom show, funding increaded 2 millions dollars in just 3 days after the event, more than the whole last month. In 2 months there will be another show in Manchester. Expect more 1 or 2 millions more from that alone.
This is not slowing down, its just getting started! Wait for the Social & FPS module to see really a big flow of players/income. I expect them to reach 100 millions before the end of the year easily!

 

[Zetta]

There's certainly a faithful group of rich (or debt-ridden) people who like spending their money on shinies. I know it won't happen but I wish they'd give more data about who is spending what, just for curiosity's sake.

 

[Jenner]

I can say with high confidence that CIG's balance sheet will improve substantially come Citizen Con and the Anniversay Sale in November.

Even if it didn't, Chis has said before that development is informed by how much cash they are taking in. If people scale back considerably then CIG will adjust their schedule and resource allocation in response.

No one but CIG knows CIG's accounting books of course. As with any crowd funded venture you take your chances if you open your wallet.

 

[Voivod]

As with any crowd funded venture you take your chances if you open your wallet.

I think it's safe to say that SC isn't just "any crowed funded venture" considering how many times a lot of it's backers have repeatedly opened their wallets.

 

[Troels]

They apparently(*) have a monthly burn rate of approximately $3 million. Which equates to $36 million per year.

snip

(* = the estimated figure of $3 million comes from Derek Smart, so take it with a pinch of salt... however, it's not far off what some SC fans estimated a year ago, and costs have probably increased since then: https://www.reddit.com/r/starcitizen/comments/2dw81d/what_is_the_burn_rate/ )

I would take that $3 million figure with more than just a pinch of salt, it's probably safe to say that DS pulled it out of his behind. This is what he wrote:

According to my sources, the reported monthly burn rate is around $3m per month, in which crowd-funding (which has seemingly slowed down) brings in around $500K.

However we know that the $500K number he quotes for crowd-funding is dead wrong, seeing as a normal month pulls in $2 million or more, and even the slowest months (June and July) still pulls in roughly $1 million (August should end up in the range of $2.5-3 million, so far it's at $2.2 million and there's a Vanguard variant sale on the way).

So given that he's that far off on the crowd-funding numbers, he's probably equally far of on the expenditure numbers.

Personally I would say a more realistic number is about $2-2.5 million per month. $1.750 million in wages (300 employees at $70k average yearly salary), $300k in monthly payments to outsource partners (We know the Illfonic contract is worth $3.8 million, and so would be an average of about $160k per month over a 2 year period. Beyond Illfonic, there's also Turbulent, BHVR and Collider), and finally about $200k in various overhead (the biggest one here would probably be rent, CIG currently has 4 studios, so assuming an average of 5000 ft^2 per office and a yearly rent of $60 per ft^2, that is a total of $100k per month). All in all that adds up to $2.25 million, which we can then round up to $2.5 million in case we missed something, but I just don't see how CIG could possibly be sitting anywhere close to $3 million a month.

At $2.5 million per month in expenditures, CIG would actually pretty much break even, seeing as they are on track to pull in about $30 million for 2015 or about $2.5 million per month on average. Combine this with the fact that their expenditures were undoubtedly much lower in the past (when they were still building up the studios to the current size), and they should still be sitting on a significant amount of money.

I think it's safe to say that SC isn't just "any crowed funded venture" considering how many times a lot of it's backers have repeatedly opened their wallets.

That doesn't really change the point Jenner was making though.

 

[Voivod]

That doesn't really change the point Jenner was making though.

I wasn't tryign to change it.
Just giving more detail to the characterization.

 

[Troels]

I wasn't tryign to change it.
Just giving more detail to the characterization.

Fair enough, my bad then

 

[Zyll Goliat]

PC Invasion-Star Citizen development timeline – Should backers really be concerned?http://www.pcinvasion.com/star-citizen-development-timeline

Derek Smart latest/Interstellar Breach/ http://www.dereksmart.org/2015/08/interstellar-breach/

 

[Mu77ley]

PC Invasion-Star Citizen development timeline – Should backers really be concerned?http://www.pcinvasion.com/star-citizen-development-timeline

I've been concerned ever since June 4th 2014 when the horrible initial release of Arena Commander showed that the flight model and combat was the antithesis of that outlined during the Kickstarter campaign. I've grown more concerned ever since as they have systematically failed to address these glaring issues, to the point where I've now pretty much written the whole thing off as a (very expensive) bad investment.

Right now in my view Star Citizen is almost on a par with Project Godus.

 

[Vasea Azure]

I've been concerned ever since June 4th 2014 when the horrible initial release of Arena Commander showed that the flight model and combat was the antithesis of that outlined during the Kickstarter campaign. I've grown more concerned ever since as they have systematically failed to address these glaring issues, to the point where I've now pretty much written the whole thing off as a (very expensive) bad investment.

Right now in my view Star Citizen is almost on par with Project Godus.

Sadly I start to feel the same

 

[Viking]

However we know that the $500K number he quotes for crowd-funding is dead wrong, seeing as a normal month pulls in $2 million or more, and even the slowest months (June and July) still pulls in roughly $1 million [...]

Yes, this is true. It's visible to all in this community-maintained spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1tMAP0fg-AKScI3S3VjrDW3OaLO4zgBA1RSYoQOQoNSI/edit?usp=sharing ... where the months totals are calculated.

CR has said many times that they watch the pledging and makes budget decisions based on what they receive, for instance new hires. So it's safe to assume then that expenses follows income.

 

[Neo-ST]

New 10ftC, seems interesting. Watching right now.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xgc0lyWFEuw

 

[Troels]

I've been concerned ever since June 4th 2014 when the horrible initial release of Arena Commander showed that the flight model and combat was the antithesis of that outlined during the Kickstarter campaign.

Actually I would say that this isn't really the case (the flight model being the antithesis of what was outlined in the Kickstarter), mainly due to the fact that the Kickstarter was really quite vague in it's description of what flight would be like (other than it being based on newtonian rigid body physics, fly-by-wire, and with a speed limit, all of which holds true for the current implementation). The Kickstarter being so vague for something so important should perhaps have been a bit of a warning sign in hindsight.

 

[Viking]

Actually I would say that this isn't really the case (the flight model being the antithesis of what was outlined in the Kickstarter), mainly due to the fact that the Kickstarter was really quite vague in it's description of what flight would be like (other than it being based on newtonian rigid body physics, fly-by-wire, and with a speed limit, all of which holds true for the current implementation). The Kickstarter being so vague for something so important should perhaps have been a bit of a warning sign in hindsight.

Arena Commander isn't finished, regarding contents and implementing technical solutions. For instance, joystick mappings are just in the beginning stage. There'll be lots of different HOTAS and joysticks with ready-made mappings, and also possibility to save your own modified mappings. Things like Virtual Reality, hardware HUD displays, pedals, and other gadgets will be supported. As I write this they're merging in code from the new CryEngine version 3.7, which contains support for Oculus Rift (if I' remember correctly).

 

[Mu77ley]

Arena Commander isn't finished, regarding contents and implementing technical solutions. For instance, joystick mappings are just in the beginning stage. There'll be lots of different HOTAS and joysticks with ready-made mappings, and also possibility to save your own modified mappings. Things like Virtual Reality, hardware HUD displays, pedals, and other gadgets will be supported. As I write this they're merging in code from the new CryEngine version 3.7, which contains support for Oculus Rift (if I' remember correctly).

I'm sorry, but Arena Commander's main purpose was to test and tune the flight and combat. There have been no significant changes to this aspect of it since initial release. That's 14 months of no work on what the whole thing was meant to be about. This is basic, basic stuff that should have been nailed down before it was even released. Hell, before the graphics were done for it even.

Bindings are not the point..

 

[Troels]

Arena Commander isn't finished, regarding contents and implementing technical solutions. For instance, joystick mappings are just in the beginning stage. There'll be lots of different HOTAS and joysticks with ready-made mappings, and also possibility to save your own modified mappings. Things like Virtual Reality, hardware HUD displays, pedals, and other gadgets will be supported. As I write this they're merging in code from the new CryEngine version 3.7, which contains support for Oculus Rift (if I' remember correctly).

I know things aren't finished, and the overall flight experience may very well change in the future. But the point is, that just because it may change, does not mean that it will change. We really don't know at this point, and have little choice but to simply wait and see (complaining in a thread on another games forum, certainly won't make any difference in this regard).

 

[Dr Wookie]

Arena Commander isn't finished, regarding contents and implementing technical solutions. For instance, joystick mappings are just in the beginning stage. There'll be lots of different HOTAS and joysticks with ready-made mappings, and also possibility to save your own modified mappings. Things like Virtual Reality, hardware HUD displays, pedals, and other gadgets will be supported. As I write this they're merging in code from the new CryEngine version 3.7, which contains support for Oculus Rift (if I' remember correctly).

I've not played for a long time, and it's very possible that the flight model has improved, but that was the real killer for me rather than the bindings. Having said that, I was using a gamepad, and the mix of pad and keyboard was very awkward. If I can bind as much to the pad as I can in ED, that would go a long way to improving things .

I don't know if the oculus CV1 specs have changed since they were teased a few months ago, but then the resolution was said to be similar to that of the DK2, using optics to reduce the screen door effect. If that is still true, I worry about its usefulness in ED, let alone SC! All those polys and textures that CR is so passionate about may well be wasted. Perhaps Vive maybe a better partnership?

 

[Viking]

I know things aren't finished, and the overall flight experience may very well change in the future. But the point is, that just because it may change, does not mean that it will change. We really don't know at this point, and have little choice but to simply wait and see (complaining in a thread on another games forum, certainly won't make any difference in this regard).

I agree we don't know 100% for certain that they will do what they've promised but I have no reason to doubt them either, and I'm a type of guy who gives people the benefit of doubt (if I have any at all) so they can prove themselves before I eventually criticize anything. So I fully agree with you that complaining at this stage won't help anything.