Powerplay Dear Sandro - your analysis will be needed on Thursday morning!

[Martin Schou]

Dear Sandro

With the current massive turmoil that Mahon is in, and the follow-up attack on Mahon by Hudson and Winters, regardless of the outcome of the cycle there will be a massive outcry about it, because some will argue that Mahon didn't lose enough systems, others will argue that Mahon lost too many systems, and that's ignoring the confusing as to why A was lost instead of B.

The raw data that we get won't be helpful either, because that is gathered before the end of the cycle, sometimes even hours before the end, meaning that it can be impossible to know which of the lost systems were ultimately undermined.

It doesn't help that GalNet claims that they are getting their hourly predictions by "galaxy-respected economists and experts", who never gives any kind of indication of the outcome of a turmoiled power.

So please - get hold of the exact data that the servers use to calculate the cycle result, share it with us and walk us through each of the steps and calculations that the servers took to arrive at the end result. We (well, at the very least me) are looking for the deep technical and exact mathematics used, not generalizations, because this is the only way to properly explain to players what happened and why.

Best regards
CMDR Vectron
Alliance Office of Statistics
Mahon fortification organizer

 

[Nick S]

Ah! The fog of war. Doesn't it add to the mystique? Ever heard of analysis paralysis?

 

[ever]

It would be also interesting to explain, why the 5C activity has dropped significantly across all Powers. Have you already introduced a mechanism? Does the data tell you anything about this?

 

[CaptainKirby]

It would be also interesting to explain, why the 5C activity has dropped significantly across all Powers. Have you already introduced a mechanism? Does the data tell you anything about this?

Have a look at this: https://www.reddit.com/r/AislingDuval/comments/4ccvv8/5c_in_aisling_duval_power_chnumar/

And by the way, Mahon was facing 5C activities worth some ten thousands of merits last week. I'd guess that was part of the Federation's attack against the Alliance (as they love to distract powers while hitting them covert), but I don't want to spread accusations when I have no proof.

//Edit:
And yes, I second the OP's request for detailed informations about the outcome.

 

[xDreadnoughtx]

Have a look at this: https://www.reddit.com/r/AislingDuval/comments/4ccvv8/5c_in_aisling_duval_power_chnumar/

And by the way, Mahon was facing 5C activities worth some ten thousands of merits last week. I'd guess that was part of the Federation's attack against the Alliance (as they love to distract powers while hitting them covert), but I don't want to spread accusations when I have no proof.

//Edit:
And yes, I second the OP's request for detailed informations about the outcome.

Then don't suggest it?

There is nothing. Winters doing 5C does not exist. There is no way of providing proof, but that 5C nonsense has nothing to do with the organised part of any Fed group I'm involved in - FLC, Minutemen.

Someone is doing it, and IMO they have the personal qualities of pond scum. Only FD can settle this stuff. Only FD can put the brakes on it. The sooner the better, because it is getting in the way.

 

[Apos]

Someone is doing it, and IMO they have the personal qualities of pond scum.

Well, if they are scum, what does that make a person/group who takes advantage of someone dealing with said scum in order to make a surprise attack?

 

[xDreadnoughtx]

Well, if they are scum, what does that make a person/group who takes advantage of someone dealing with said scum in order to make a surprise attack?

Is that an attack on the Federation. If so it missed.

What are you saying? That because there are some idiots out there doing 5C everyone needs to stop playing. That is an amusing but nonsensical notion.

5C is happening. It's ridiculous, but there you are. We are all dealing with it. We do what we can to counter it, but take advantage of it? Certainly not deliberately.

Now fly safe.

PS - I would love to see the data laid bare. Especially if it told us something about 5C.

 

[CaptainKirby]

Someone is doing it, and IMO they have the personal qualities of pond scum. Only FD can settle this stuff. Only FD can put the brakes on it. The sooner the better, because it is getting in the way.

While I have absolutely no motivation to believe any of your words telling that your Fed groups didn't ever do 5C, I do actually approve the quoted statement of yours. 5C is not supposed to be part of the game, and I'd even help with a Federation's SCRAP target just to fight against the mentioned scum. If I found the time beside fortifying my power against cowardly attacks, of course. (come on, just let me tease you a bit)

 

[xDreadnoughtx]

While I have absolutely no motivation to believe any of your words telling that your Fed groups didn't ever do 5C, I do actually approve the quoted statement of yours. 5C is not supposed to be part of the game, and I'd even help with a Federation's SCRAP target just to fight against the mentioned scum. If I found the time beside fortifying my power against cowardly attacks, of course. (come on, just let me tease you a bit)

Don't expect you to believe me. After all I'm a filthy sniping Fed Wish I could provide proof.

Come on FD. Get this 5C prep and expansion stuff sorted. Well, sort the prep out and the other will follow.

Fly safe

 

[Sandro Sammarco]

Hello Commanders!

I can't promise, but I will try to post on Thursday with some thoughts. Clearly the attack on Mahon has been significant.

 

[xDreadnoughtx]

Good to know you may give this some attention.

How's the 5C thinking going BTW? Throw us a bone eh. Please.

 

[Martin Schou]

Hello Commanders!

I can't promise, but I will try to post on Thursday with some thoughts. Clearly the attack on Mahon has been significant.

Thank you.

From my perspective, I would rather you take your time and post later (say Friday or Monday) but include the actual mathematics that led to the end of cycle results.

Personally I'm not looking for help figuring out what will happen to us this cycle - that's why I was asking for your thoughts and explanations to be posted after the cycle.

 

[Sandro Sammarco]

Hello Commander Martin Schou!

It's going to be pretty interesting, with such a massive (and successful) effort to save Mahon, against a very determined attack.

 

[Martin Schou]

Don't expect you to believe me. After all I'm a filthy sniping Fed

Sniping doesn't make you filty, it just makes you organized.

 

[dciskey]

While I have absolutely no motivation to believe any of your words telling that your Fed groups didn't ever do 5C, I do actually approve the quoted statement of yours. 5C is not supposed to be part of the game, and I'd even help with a Federation's SCRAP target just to fight against the mentioned scum. If I found the time beside fortifying my power against cowardly attacks, of course. (come on, just let me tease you a bit)

Honestly, the 5C you guys received last cycle probably kept 2-3 more systems from going into turmoil. Mahon had a much higher Galnet prediction than normal on Monday and Tuesday last week, which seemed to be the result of players cancelling more undermined systems than usual. It was up around 1100CC, when generally you keep it closer to zero and sometimes even below zero until the last day. It would seem that we and the 5C took each other by surprise last cycle.

 

[Martin Schou]

Honestly, the 5C you guys received last cycle probably kept 2-3 more systems from going into turmoil. Mahon had a much higher Galnet prediction than normal on Monday and Tuesday last week, which seemed to be the result of players cancelling more undermined systems than usual. It was up around 1100CC, when generally you keep it closer to zero and sometimes even below zero until the last day. It would seem that we and the 5C took each other by surprise last cycle.

The reason our Galnet numbers were so high throughout the cycle, is that we received far, far, far less effective undermining than usual. As a result the systems that would normally get undermined and cost us CC weren't undermined.

Now ... it is interesting that when two organized powers, who have sworn up and down for months that none of their organized players undermine us are setting up a snipe, that suddenly our visible undermining drops by about two thirds throughout the week. Clearly it was the Empire and Independents who had realised that you were going to snipe us who told their players to stop undermining us, to make it look like the missing undermining was coming from the Federation. Right?

 

[persephonius]

The reason our Galnet numbers were so high throughout the cycle, is that we received far, far, far less effective undermining than usual. As a result the systems that would normally get undermined and cost us CC weren't undermined.

Now ... it is interesting that when two organized powers, who have sworn up and down for months that none of their organized players undermine us are setting up a snipe, that suddenly our visible undermining drops by about two thirds throughout the week. Clearly it was the Empire and Independents who had realised that you were going to snipe us who told their players to stop undermining us, to make it look like the missing undermining was coming from the Federation. Right?

It is also interesting that when the fortification requirements of Mahon become extreme, the 5c in every other power disappears... hmmmm??

 

[Schlack]

Guys can we keep this kind of stuff to reddit, it will scare away the developers. They are a timid creatures, easily frightened by bright lights and loud noises.

 

[dciskey]

The reason our Galnet numbers were so high throughout the cycle, is that we received far, far, far less effective undermining than usual. As a result the systems that would normally get undermined and cost us CC weren't undermined.

Now ... it is interesting that when two organized powers, who have sworn up and down for months that none of their organized players undermine us are setting up a snipe, that suddenly our visible undermining drops by about two thirds throughout the week. Clearly it was the Empire and Independents who had realised that you were going to snipe us who told their players to stop undermining us, to make it look like the missing undermining was coming from the Federation. Right?

Do you have some internal info to back that up? Looking back through the last five weeks of fergal's commentary, it seems to hover around 250,000 effective merits. Last week it was a bit over that, probably due to the snipe merits starting to go in as the data was gathered. I don't collect data on you over time like you do, so maybe you've got something that shows that your early-mid cycle undermining was light?

I sure do wish we had the manpower everyone accuses us of having. I also wish someone would explain to me why we'd send players up to UM you to no real effect (other than helping you control your CC balance) week after week when we were fighting tooth and nail against ALD and Patreus and could've really used those merits in that fight.

 

[Apos]

It is also interesting that when the fortification requirements of Mahon become extreme, the 5c in every other power disappears... hmmmm??

Indeed, if you ignore all the bad preps of this week, 5C has disappeared.

It's only Torval, Patreus, Aisling and Winters yourselves that have them after all.

At least if you are going to lie, make sure the lie is something harder to dismiss than going to the power play tab and actually looking at numbers.

Meanwhile Sirius, who you are trying to bait that we were 5C-ing them, has a great preparation candidate AND a great expansion candidate and has been having them for ages. How long to be precise? Well, ever since you guys stopped sniping them without having the balls to admit it for over 4 cycles frankly.