Cycle 44 Commentary
Raw data is out for the second edition of the Mahon Car Crash Special.
Known Merits
ALD had expansions, so was number 1 for total merits, but the amount of expansion grinding continued to be down for her players.
Aisling, Hudson and Mahon are very close together in the next 3 positions, and Winters is a fair bit behind them in the 5th position.
Total merits from Torval down to Delaine steadily decrease.
On the effective merits chart you can see Mahon in the number 1 position.
Hudson did 448,107 effective fortification merits in cycle 23, and he just did a massive 422992 merits this week.
Mahon did 484653 merits in fortification, enough to fortify 91 out of his 97 systems, so a new PP record for both number of systems fortified (no-one else even has 91 systems) and total effective fortification.
The effective merits steadily decrease, and Patreus may have the smallest amount of effective merits ever (22747), but thats not a value I have tracked from other weeks.
Undermining and Opposition
On the total opposition chart you can see Mahon way up there at number one.
No power has faced more than 1.5 million merits (Winters had just under 1.5 million) in undermining before, Mahon was hit with 1755180
Hudson got over 1 million merits in total undermining, a high amount, and Winters got a High to Medium amount of opposition.
Everyone else was hit with Medium to Low amounts of opposition.
On the effective chart you can see Mahon in number 1, 929021 merits, shattering the old record of 699,575 which ALD had in cycle 21, when she had more systems to undermine than she currently has.
86 of 97 Mahon systems were undermined.
Hudson got what would normally be called a very high to extremely high amount of effective undermining, around 500000 merits, but nothing compared to what hit Mahon.
ALD and Winters had a Medium to High amount, and everyone else was virtually untouched.
Aisling received 0 effective opposition.
This Week in Slavery with Archon Delaine
who cares
Mahons Turmoil Results
Mahons Turmoil turned out the way I though it should have, but there were several possibilities and no-one was sure which one would happen.
I'm also certain Turmoil on Patreus has not worked this way, Archon Delaine wasn't undermined enough for me to determine how Turmoil works with him.
Hopefully from here on this is the Turmoil mechanic all powers use, and I believe it is the most logical, and rewards putting powers into Turmoil, by denying them the income from the Turmoil systems in the following week.
If the income from the Turmoil systems is used as normal, Turmoil is meaningless, and all the red numbers in multiple game UIs are pointless.
Heres what I get.
Income: 10116
Default Upkeep: 2705
Overheads: 6085.8
Turmoil System Lost Income: 2658
Starting Balance: -1332.8 (Galnet said -1332)
Upkeep reduction from 11 systems not getting undermined, but being fortified: 237
End Balance: -1095.8 (but this isn't including undermined costs on the 6 Turmoil systems not fortified, if there are any)
So now we lose some systems
The 12 that were lost have a total default upkeep of: 414
and overheads go down by: 745.2
Which is a total of: 1159.2
This pushes Mahons balance to 63.4 and he is out of Turmoil.
Now the Income from the remaining 9 systems that were in turmoil is added back. 1109
Thats an end balance of: 1172.4
But in game it says: 1158
Why the difference?
No idea. **EDIT Take a look at the post from FleetAdmiralJ for the mistake free version of the calculation
Why were the systems that were actually lost selected?
They had the highest upkeep cost for the cycle just gone.
Most of the systems not fortified were going to be lost first anyway, so not fortifying them was a good idea.
Tricorii and Siki have the same costs on the map, 31, but the decimal place numbers are hidden in game, a problem we had with the Kumo Crew Turmoil.
Not fortifying Marralteki forced it to be lost instead of Siki.
Score
Still something wrong with my calculation, its good for 8 of the Powers.
Commentary and Speculation
Felicia Winters 76
The Shadow President moved back into the number 1 position, for what I think is the first time since week 1 of Power Play.
It only took the largest offensive in PP to remove Mahon from the number 1 position, ALD also being pushed into Turmoil, and a last minute push to win an expansion.
Undoubtedly the empire will continue undermining Winters this week, and Mahon will probably join in, so there will need to be a large amount of fortification completed.
Nothing public has been mentioned for undermining targets, but one ex-Mahon region is currently being prepped.
With Mahons large lead (and Hudsons) in number of Control Systems, Winters will probably return to 3rd next week.
Edmund Mahon 74
Mahon had the worst week any power has experienced in PP so far, and it was probably the best thing to happen to his players, and maybe PP in general.
He lost a record 12 systems, faced a record amount of undermining, and did a record amount of fortifying (A record he can't match this week because he has 12 less systems... too soon?)
And this only moved him down to second (but only 1% off third)
Activity on his reddit and discord seemed up by a large margin, and it will be interesting to see how much of the enthusiasm remains this week, now the Mahon Mallet will be swinging at some rival powers.
A number of Powers are already prepping in his lost area, Antal, Winters, Delaine and Hudson, but with a large amount of CC he could prep a majority of the systems he just lost.
Right now there are some weaponised preps going into Federation Space, and it may be possible Patreus will do the same, which will give them an even greater chance of winning.
Mahon should return to the number 1 position at the end of the week.
Zachary Hudson 73
The President faced a large undermining attack, which will be overlooked because of the massive attack on Mahon.
Things didn't quite go as expected, with Winters moving into Mahons 1st position, not Hudson.
Hudson is finally out of turmoil, and currently prepping one of the areas Mahon just lost.
If he wins the prep war, the system will be sure to expand.
As with Winters, Hudson may come under a joint Mahon / Empire attack this week.
Hudson should move up to second, but could still be in the third place.
Aisling Duval 65
The Peoples Princess moved up to 4th, with 2 expansions, and ALD falling into Turmoil.
This now puts Aisling slightly clear from Sirius and Torval in number of systems, and she should be in the top 5 until both of them expand more.
0 Aisling systems were undermined, and there was virtually no opposition to both of her expansions.
A controlled turmoil is still a good idea for Aisling, but this week she has a profitable expansion, so probably doesn't want to hit Turmoil.
Li Yong-Rui 56
Sirius moved into the top 5, but I'm not sure why his score is above Torvals.
Sirius lost his expansion, while Torval won an expansion, and they are both on the same number of systems.
This week Sirius is expanding into the Chang O system again.
It is unclear if Sirius will attempt to get involved in the great Mahon Land Grab.
With a score so close to Torval, he may be 5th or 6th next week.
Zemina Torval 53
Torval Moved up to 6th, but really should be above Sirius after winning an expansion.
Last week they had a weaponised expansion in Hudson space, and are now listed as Hostile on the Hudson reddit.
This week they have an expansion that overlaps Delaine space, another one that overlaps Hudson space, and one that overlaps their own space.
With it unlikely her players want to win an expansion, Toval will probably still be under Sirius at the end of the week.
Arissa Lavigny-Duval 50
ALD was put into Turmoil and fell all the way down to 7th, and if this didn't happen she had an excellent chance of being above Winters in the 1st position.
Most of ALDs undermining came from piracy and looks like a controlled turmoil that went bad, or was sabotaged, and one slightly profitable system is now in Turmoil.
ALD has one expansion this week, which will easily win.
If she gets out of Turmoil she should be back into the top 4.
Denton Patreus 43
Patreus had a quiet week, as mentioned above, his players might have done the lowest amount of effective merits in the history of PP.
This week he has 3 expansions, 2 weaponised aimed at the Federation, and one medium income system.
Patreus players will be busy all week pushing their expansions, and Hudson or Winters will probably be targeted for undermining.
Its likely that Antal will move ahead of Patreus at the end of the week, but he should only move down to 9th if this happens.
Pranav Antal 36
Antal competed 7 Preparations and is back to normal PP operations, with expansions to work on this week.
One of the expansions is the far system of Maia, which will take a large effort to expand with its 42448 trigger.
Antal had already started prepping 3 lost areas from Mahon, and with a large CC balance, more may be prepared.
With a large number of expansions, where at least some should win, Antal has a good chance of moving back up to 8th at the end of the week.
Archon Delaine 24
The Pirate Lord had a quiet PP week, spending most of it opposing the Patreus expansion, and negotiating with an endless stream of Player Minor Factions.
With negotiations nearly complete, normal PP service should resume and Delaine will be back to undermining someone, somewhere.
3 areas Mahon just lost (the same areas Antal is going for) have begun to be prepped, and a (or many) prep wars may be the main task this cycle.
If Antal goes into Turmoil (very unlikely) Delaine would move back up to 9th, but with no expansions this week, 10th is more than likely.
Raw data is out for the second edition of the Mahon Car Crash Special.
Known Merits
ALD had expansions, so was number 1 for total merits, but the amount of expansion grinding continued to be down for her players.
Aisling, Hudson and Mahon are very close together in the next 3 positions, and Winters is a fair bit behind them in the 5th position.
Total merits from Torval down to Delaine steadily decrease.
On the effective merits chart you can see Mahon in the number 1 position.
Hudson did 448,107 effective fortification merits in cycle 23, and he just did a massive 422992 merits this week.
Mahon did 484653 merits in fortification, enough to fortify 91 out of his 97 systems, so a new PP record for both number of systems fortified (no-one else even has 91 systems) and total effective fortification.
The effective merits steadily decrease, and Patreus may have the smallest amount of effective merits ever (22747), but thats not a value I have tracked from other weeks.
Undermining and Opposition
On the total opposition chart you can see Mahon way up there at number one.
No power has faced more than 1.5 million merits (Winters had just under 1.5 million) in undermining before, Mahon was hit with 1755180
Hudson got over 1 million merits in total undermining, a high amount, and Winters got a High to Medium amount of opposition.
Everyone else was hit with Medium to Low amounts of opposition.
On the effective chart you can see Mahon in number 1, 929021 merits, shattering the old record of 699,575 which ALD had in cycle 21, when she had more systems to undermine than she currently has.
86 of 97 Mahon systems were undermined.
Hudson got what would normally be called a very high to extremely high amount of effective undermining, around 500000 merits, but nothing compared to what hit Mahon.
ALD and Winters had a Medium to High amount, and everyone else was virtually untouched.
Aisling received 0 effective opposition.
This Week in Slavery with Archon Delaine
who cares
Mahons Turmoil Results
Mahons Turmoil turned out the way I though it should have, but there were several possibilities and no-one was sure which one would happen.
I'm also certain Turmoil on Patreus has not worked this way, Archon Delaine wasn't undermined enough for me to determine how Turmoil works with him.
Hopefully from here on this is the Turmoil mechanic all powers use, and I believe it is the most logical, and rewards putting powers into Turmoil, by denying them the income from the Turmoil systems in the following week.
If the income from the Turmoil systems is used as normal, Turmoil is meaningless, and all the red numbers in multiple game UIs are pointless.
Heres what I get.
Income: 10116
Default Upkeep: 2705
Overheads: 6085.8
Turmoil System Lost Income: 2658
Starting Balance: -1332.8 (Galnet said -1332)
Upkeep reduction from 11 systems not getting undermined, but being fortified: 237
End Balance: -1095.8 (but this isn't including undermined costs on the 6 Turmoil systems not fortified, if there are any)
So now we lose some systems
The 12 that were lost have a total default upkeep of: 414
and overheads go down by: 745.2
Which is a total of: 1159.2
This pushes Mahons balance to 63.4 and he is out of Turmoil.
Now the Income from the remaining 9 systems that were in turmoil is added back. 1109
Thats an end balance of: 1172.4
But in game it says: 1158
Why the difference?
No idea. **EDIT Take a look at the post from FleetAdmiralJ for the mistake free version of the calculation
Why were the systems that were actually lost selected?
They had the highest upkeep cost for the cycle just gone.
Most of the systems not fortified were going to be lost first anyway, so not fortifying them was a good idea.
Tricorii and Siki have the same costs on the map, 31, but the decimal place numbers are hidden in game, a problem we had with the Kumo Crew Turmoil.
Not fortifying Marralteki forced it to be lost instead of Siki.
Score
Still something wrong with my calculation, its good for 8 of the Powers.
Commentary and Speculation
Felicia Winters 76
The Shadow President moved back into the number 1 position, for what I think is the first time since week 1 of Power Play.
It only took the largest offensive in PP to remove Mahon from the number 1 position, ALD also being pushed into Turmoil, and a last minute push to win an expansion.
Undoubtedly the empire will continue undermining Winters this week, and Mahon will probably join in, so there will need to be a large amount of fortification completed.
Nothing public has been mentioned for undermining targets, but one ex-Mahon region is currently being prepped.
With Mahons large lead (and Hudsons) in number of Control Systems, Winters will probably return to 3rd next week.
Edmund Mahon 74
Mahon had the worst week any power has experienced in PP so far, and it was probably the best thing to happen to his players, and maybe PP in general.
He lost a record 12 systems, faced a record amount of undermining, and did a record amount of fortifying (A record he can't match this week because he has 12 less systems... too soon?)
And this only moved him down to second (but only 1% off third)
Activity on his reddit and discord seemed up by a large margin, and it will be interesting to see how much of the enthusiasm remains this week, now the Mahon Mallet will be swinging at some rival powers.
A number of Powers are already prepping in his lost area, Antal, Winters, Delaine and Hudson, but with a large amount of CC he could prep a majority of the systems he just lost.
Right now there are some weaponised preps going into Federation Space, and it may be possible Patreus will do the same, which will give them an even greater chance of winning.
Mahon should return to the number 1 position at the end of the week.
Zachary Hudson 73
The President faced a large undermining attack, which will be overlooked because of the massive attack on Mahon.
Things didn't quite go as expected, with Winters moving into Mahons 1st position, not Hudson.
Hudson is finally out of turmoil, and currently prepping one of the areas Mahon just lost.
If he wins the prep war, the system will be sure to expand.
As with Winters, Hudson may come under a joint Mahon / Empire attack this week.
Hudson should move up to second, but could still be in the third place.
Aisling Duval 65
The Peoples Princess moved up to 4th, with 2 expansions, and ALD falling into Turmoil.
This now puts Aisling slightly clear from Sirius and Torval in number of systems, and she should be in the top 5 until both of them expand more.
0 Aisling systems were undermined, and there was virtually no opposition to both of her expansions.
A controlled turmoil is still a good idea for Aisling, but this week she has a profitable expansion, so probably doesn't want to hit Turmoil.
Li Yong-Rui 56
Sirius moved into the top 5, but I'm not sure why his score is above Torvals.
Sirius lost his expansion, while Torval won an expansion, and they are both on the same number of systems.
This week Sirius is expanding into the Chang O system again.
It is unclear if Sirius will attempt to get involved in the great Mahon Land Grab.
With a score so close to Torval, he may be 5th or 6th next week.
Zemina Torval 53
Torval Moved up to 6th, but really should be above Sirius after winning an expansion.
Last week they had a weaponised expansion in Hudson space, and are now listed as Hostile on the Hudson reddit.
This week they have an expansion that overlaps Delaine space, another one that overlaps Hudson space, and one that overlaps their own space.
With it unlikely her players want to win an expansion, Toval will probably still be under Sirius at the end of the week.
Arissa Lavigny-Duval 50
ALD was put into Turmoil and fell all the way down to 7th, and if this didn't happen she had an excellent chance of being above Winters in the 1st position.
Most of ALDs undermining came from piracy and looks like a controlled turmoil that went bad, or was sabotaged, and one slightly profitable system is now in Turmoil.
ALD has one expansion this week, which will easily win.
If she gets out of Turmoil she should be back into the top 4.
Denton Patreus 43
Patreus had a quiet week, as mentioned above, his players might have done the lowest amount of effective merits in the history of PP.
This week he has 3 expansions, 2 weaponised aimed at the Federation, and one medium income system.
Patreus players will be busy all week pushing their expansions, and Hudson or Winters will probably be targeted for undermining.
Its likely that Antal will move ahead of Patreus at the end of the week, but he should only move down to 9th if this happens.
Pranav Antal 36
Antal competed 7 Preparations and is back to normal PP operations, with expansions to work on this week.
One of the expansions is the far system of Maia, which will take a large effort to expand with its 42448 trigger.
Antal had already started prepping 3 lost areas from Mahon, and with a large CC balance, more may be prepared.
With a large number of expansions, where at least some should win, Antal has a good chance of moving back up to 8th at the end of the week.
Archon Delaine 24
The Pirate Lord had a quiet PP week, spending most of it opposing the Patreus expansion, and negotiating with an endless stream of Player Minor Factions.
With negotiations nearly complete, normal PP service should resume and Delaine will be back to undermining someone, somewhere.
3 areas Mahon just lost (the same areas Antal is going for) have begun to be prepped, and a (or many) prep wars may be the main task this cycle.
If Antal goes into Turmoil (very unlikely) Delaine would move back up to 9th, but with no expansions this week, 10th is more than likely.
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