Been doing a bit of research, on the numbers of players /active users on the forums.

[Heater]

This is by no means meant to be negative in any way I just was looking at the number and decide to share them.
I read the discussions / polls, (AI, Power Play, CQC, Engineers etc.…) about the direction the game is going.
So looking at the numbers.
ED has sold 1.4 million copies (as of Dec 2015)
The forum has +/- 2000 active users (more than 10 post) and over 68,000 registered users.

Using the following guide lines:
1-9-90 rule 1-9-90 rule (sometimes 90–9–1 principle or the 89:10:1 ratio)
States that in a collaborative website such as a wiki / forum, 90% of the participants of a community only view content, 9% of the participants edit content, and 1% of the participants actively create new content.

So 68000 is roughly 5% of the total sales, registered on the forum and of that, around 3% are active.

So when people say the majority of the users want this or that, if you scale up the numbers.

I would say FD has an issue that needs to be addressed if they / we want Elite to succeed.

 

[bitstorm]

I think I'd say that any forum finds its own level. Mainly because forums are really about interaction, it's not really post and walk, though some threads will be like that.

Too many folk and there's too much going on and people can't really interact because their voice isn't heard. As a result people leave.

We saw it with the Canonn thread around barnacle time, page after page after page appearing, everyone wanting to speak and no-one being heard because posts coming too fast. Inevitably it led to people leaving the Canonn thread till it settles down because at that level no actual discussion could be had.

I mean maybe you can use forum activity gauge user levels to a degree but I'd say at a certain level it's not gonna be very accurate.

It might be better to look at all the outlets for discussion, ie Reddit and whereever else then total the number of unique users over all platforms, because obviously folk on Reddit might not post here, and vice versa. Obviously that's not really practical though.

 

[h347h]

Alright I would like you to do some extra digging.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pareto_principle

Normally businesses know that roughly 80% of their complaints are going to come from only 20% of their costumers. Can you single out and see if that what is going on? Because I know there are some people who just keep beating their drums no matter the cause.

 

[Kayweg]

I'm not entirely sure what the message is here, OP.

5% of all purchasers have a forum account.

For all i know, that's pretty much par for the course in gaming communities ?

 

[Beans]

Alright I would like you to do some extra digging.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pareto_principle

Normally businesses know that roughly 80% of their complaints are going to come from only 20% of their costumers. Can you single out and see if that what is going on? Because I know there are some people who just keep beating their drums no matter the cause.

Ah ha! I've been looking for this all day, the whingers on EDC also have a problem understanding that it's the same few whinging about everything and agreeing with each other, but I couldn't remember the proper name for it! Cheers

 

[S~P]

I think most ED players are playing solo and they probably don't post on forums. Then you have the Steam owners who probably post on the Steam forums, altough there is only around 5k players on Steam.

 

[Brett C]

Your stats are a bit skewed due to how i've configured this forum. There are currently 4,150 people (as of this post) browsing the forums in the past 30 minutes - and that's during non-peak. We have 134,571 registered forum users. Of those 134,571 members, filtering by people who have made at least one post is 68,934. The value there on after shrinks for those who have made 2, 3, 4, 5, and so on posts. The forum is holding close to a 80:15:5 ratio: 80% lurking/visiting, 15% have a forums account, 5% post. Over time, that value will fall back to the 90,9,1 rule. When Elite Dangerous launched, we were seeing around a 70:20:10 ratio.

Regardless, I keep track of what's going on. I wouldn't worry about if we're reading or not reading the forums - I do like my weekends however.

 

[PhanttoM]

I'm guessing those numbers also cover users who don't even own Elite Dangerous. Frontier forums also cover other games.

 

[Colonel Kenney]

The numbers are holding around 3000 average. I've been monitoring them from several sites. It all matches up - this last patch had its usual regular spike but its not as big as most - and its been falling off VERY VERY fast.

I'm pretty sure they'll keep between 2000-2500 customers playing on AVERAGE for a good couple years with the occasional spike. It'll peak near 2.4 this year again. But unless they really pull the rabbit out of their hat and ignore their previous MO (and go hire some people who know how to make a GAME) then they could see a big spike in sales for Season 3.


Also keywords and other data have been scraped showing the demographics and "mentality" behind the majority of people contributing here. It is quite interesting and it does pretty much vary between games depending on their success.

In this case you have a lot of people who WISH this game could be what it was supposed to be and keep holding onto hope, while you have the vocal majority of rose colored glasses people who are completely content with mediocrity. Those squeeky wheels are getting the oil. The valid concerns (that are doable in a short period of time) in many cases are heard and other bigger (longer termed priority list type) ones ignored. The complainers are considered that - they complain they are heard and discarded.

 

[Siranui]

This is by no means meant to be negative in any way I just was looking at the number and decide to share them.

You haven't taken into account that people are far, far more willing to post a negative report than a positive.

 

[AJW]

You haven't taken into account that people are far, far more willing to post a negative report than a positive.

This. People who enjoy a game play it. People who don't either play something else, or complain about it. And I have the distinct impression that some people enjoy complaining about games they don't like more than playing games they do...

 

[RhymeRhyme]

This is by no means meant to be ne

Don't forget about REDDIT. I was amazed this week how strong REDDIT is with games.

 

[Cosmos]

Whilst it goes without saying most people don't post on the forums, or are in fact registered, I know of loads of people who just play the game and don't post here. For them reddit is more of a go to place. I no doubt have and spend far too much time on here and reddit but I suppose I must enjoy it, otherwise why do it?

I doubt we'd get it but it would be really interesting to know the active player numbers. Yet once you start publishing those it only becomes a liability particuarly if it dips. I would really like to learn the mean distribution of which mode folks play in. But its likely asking too much as it would almost certainly result in ammo for the disgruntled.

I'm surprised I haven't seen ED promoted on steam recently given its just had such a great update. Then again, the review system has been getting hammered for quite some time now. Doesn't seem to take much for folks to express their grievances, however small, there with a negative review. I just hope the game has a healthy and growing population and the finances are solid for it..

 

[Heater]

I'm not entirely sure what the message is here, OP.

5% of all purchasers have a forum account.

For all i know, that's pretty much par for the course in gaming communities ?

The point is people are saying the the users want this or that based on the Forum post etc... and as you say 5-10 % of users post on the forums. But with that said it's oblivious that a lot of people are unhappy / frustrated with the changes and the content thus far.... as far as the numbers i was using, it was based on what information i was able to pull from the forums (number of users we can see) But as Brett C. pointed out below they are skewed due to the way the forums are set up.

- - - - - Additional Content Posted / Auto Merge - - - - -

Your stats are a bit skewed due to how i've configured this forum. There are currently 4,150 people (as of this post) browsing the forums in the past 30 minutes - and that's during non-peak. We have 134,571 registered forum users. Of those 134,571 members, filtering by people who have made at least one post is 68,934. The value there on after shrinks for those who have made 2, 3, 4, 5, and so on posts. The forum is holding close to a 80:15:5 ratio: 80% lurking/visiting, 15% have a forums account, 5% post. Over time, that value will fall back to the 90,9,1 rule. When Elite Dangerous launched, we were seeing around a 70:20:10 ratio.

Regardless, I keep track of what's going on. I wouldn't worry about if we're reading or not reading the forums - I do like my weekends however.

Thanks for the response.... You may have one free weekend a month

 

[Envy661]

The numbers are holding around 3000 average. I've been monitoring them from several sites. It all matches up - this last patch had its usual regular spike but its not as big as most - and its been falling off VERY VERY fast.

I'm pretty sure they'll keep between 2000-2500 customers playing on AVERAGE for a good couple years with the occasional spike. It'll peak near 2.4 this year again. But unless they really pull the rabbit out of their hat and ignore their previous MO (and go hire some people who know how to make a GAME) then they could see a big spike in sales for Season 3.


Also keywords and other data have been scraped showing the demographics and "mentality" behind the majority of people contributing here. It is quite interesting and it does pretty much vary between games depending on their success.

In this case you have a lot of people who WISH this game could be what it was supposed to be and keep holding onto hope, while you have the vocal majority of rose colored glasses people who are completely content with mediocrity. Those squeeky wheels are getting the oil. The valid concerns (that are doable in a short period of time) in many cases are heard and other bigger (longer termed priority list type) ones ignored. The complainers are considered that - they complain they are heard and discarded.

This. The so-called "white knights" of the community who defend it to the death despite it's obvious and apparant flaws, and the so-called "Black Knights" who come in to complain when everything changes.

Personally, I think most people are in-between. Seeing the flaws, trying to share some constructive criticism, but still enjoying the game, even if it is a little barebones.

The problem is, those people get drowned out by everyone else. The white knight "I blindly love this game and so should you!" and the black knight "I blindly hate on this game and so should you!". That shouldn't be what a forum is about. A forum should always be about discussion and constructive criticism of the subject the forum focuses on. Right now, we do not have that on these forums. Not by a long shot.

People will defend to the death their view, believing it to be the superior opinion, and turn a blind eye and hiss at those with a different opinion because it isn't what they want to hear.

I swear if I see another 'Git Gud' thread pop up, it'll be too soon....

 

[Henri]

The white knight "I blindly love this game and so should you!" and the black knight "I blindly hate on this game and so should you!".

Eish what about the colored knights?

 

[Flimley]

The thing is....43% of all statistics are made up ! 23% of people know this to be true.
Flimley

 

[Colonel Kenney]

This. The so-called "white knights" of the community who defend it to the death despite it's obvious and apparant flaws, and the so-called "Black Knights" who come in to complain when everything changes.

Personally, I think most people are in-between. Seeing the flaws, trying to share some constructive criticism, but still enjoying the game, even if it is a little barebones.

The problem is, those people get drowned out by everyone else. The white knight "I blindly love this game and so should you!" and the black knight "I blindly hate on this game and so should you!". That shouldn't be what a forum is about. A forum should always be about discussion and constructive criticism of the subject the forum focuses on. Right now, we do not have that on these forums. Not by a long shot.

People will defend to the death their view, believing it to be the superior opinion, and turn a blind eye and hiss at those with a different opinion because it isn't what they want to hear.

I swear if I see another 'Git Gud' thread pop up, it'll be too soon....

It isn't the people's fault. The white knight squeeky wheels or us passionate complainers who know what a good game is (backed by decades of gaming on successful titles). The issue is that its FD's fault. They only choose to listen to what they are allowed to listen to. They have a "vision" they must follow. So that vision needs to change asap and they need to unleash their brightest minds ..

problem is that they already have their roadmap now and they are just following the same MO. OOooh Alliance and Thargoids are coming. I'm willing to bet it is as exciting as what we've received already. It'll be minimally impacting the game, and what changes are made will require grinding and or similar playstyle to advance your "fun" in any way. Its the same MO.

 

[Envy661]

The numbers are holding around 3000 average. I've been monitoring them from several sites. It all matches up - this last patch had its usual regular spike but its not as big as most - and its been falling off VERY VERY fast.

I'm pretty sure they'll keep between 2000-2500 customers playing on AVERAGE for a good couple years with the occasional spike. It'll peak near 2.4 this year again. But unless they really pull the rabbit out of their hat and ignore their previous MO (and go hire some people who know how to make a GAME) then they could see a big spike in sales for Season 3.


Also keywords and other data have been scraped showing the demographics and "mentality" behind the majority of people contributing here. It is quite interesting and it does pretty much vary between games depending on their success.

In this case you have a lot of people who WISH this game could be what it was supposed to be and keep holding onto hope, while you have the vocal majority of rose colored glasses people who are completely content with mediocrity. Those squeeky wheels are getting the oil. The valid concerns (that are doable in a short period of time) in many cases are heard and other bigger (longer termed priority list type) ones ignored. The complainers are considered that - they complain they are heard and discarded.

It isn't the people's fault. The white knight squeeky wheels or us passionate complainers who know what a good game is (backed by decades of gaming on successful titles). The issue is that its FD's fault. They only choose to listen to what they are allowed to listen to. They have a "vision" they must follow. So that vision needs to change asap and they need to unleash their brightest minds ..

problem is that they already have their roadmap now and they are just following the same MO. OOooh Alliance and Thargoids are coming. I'm willing to bet it is as exciting as what we've received already. It'll be minimally impacting the game, and what changes are made will require grinding and or similar playstyle to advance your "fun" in any way. Its the same MO.

The question is, could we as a community unanimously come together and tell Frontier "Things need to change."? I feel like part of the reason things are sticking to a status quo right now is because the community itself can't even attempt to work together to address these things. Mainly because everyone has a different opinion on what needs to be done and in what order.

 

[Agony_Aunt]

It isn't the people's fault. The white knight squeeky wheels or us passionate complainers who know what a good game is (backed by decades of gaming on successful titles). The issue is that its FD's fault. They only choose to listen to what they are allowed to listen to. They have a "vision" they must follow. So that vision needs to change asap and they need to unleash their brightest minds ..

problem is that they already have their roadmap now and they are just following the same MO. OOooh Alliance and Thargoids are coming. I'm willing to bet it is as exciting as what we've received already. It'll be minimally impacting the game, and what changes are made will require grinding and or similar playstyle to advance your "fun" in any way. Its the same MO.

So, FD are at fault for making the game they want to make? I see.....

Braben very early on did say that he wanted to make the game he wanted to play. Not the game that me or you want to play. I don't like everthing that FD have done to ED, but i like it more than enough to keep playing, and i'm not making demands for FD to change things, although I, like many, offer my opinion on things. But ultimately, its up to DB to decide where things are going, based on what he wants.

If you want a developer who panders to the demands of the most vocal players, i think you need to look elsewhere.