There's definitely a threshold, because a faction can avoid retreat entirely at the end of the active state i.e. the faction is not removed from any systems where it is present.
But in the case of your example, it's certainly possible that if a faction has multiple candidates for retreat, that it picks the lowest influence at the end of the active state (as long as it's below the threshold).
I actually would have loved to see what happened if that faction was at 1 - 2% in multiple systems at the end of retreat to see if it was removed from more than one. I kinda doubt it, but this version has been full of surprises so far vs how I thought they would have implemented things.
For example, expansion overriding an active economic state, and then conflict cancelling the expansion active state but releasing the expansion anyway [woah] Game changing stuff. Had to throw the strategy book out the window after that.
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So is there any known way to improve a station's offerings (#of ships, modules, etc) ? Or is the galaxy a bit static for the time being?
It feels like certain modules come and go, in terms of availability, and I have heard rumors that stations will offer more ships when they "grow". But I've never seen proof, or any explanation as to why this is happening.
Dav answered this in one of the live streams, but I can't remember offhand if it was the BGS stream or the 2.1 release day stream. I'll see if I can dig it up. I think the basic premise was that states can temporarily improve stations' offerings, but that permanent improvements were a very very long process. I don't think he made it clear how much player agency there is in that process.