Anyone interested in stopping Brexit, have you guys and girls seen this?
http://www.crowdfunder.co.uk/brexitjustice
I'm pledging right away.
http://www.crowdfunder.co.uk/brexitjustice
I'm pledging right away.
General / Off-Topic UK Only - POLL - How would you now vote if casting your vote again for the referendum?
- Thread starter Nerwan
- Start date
A waste of time, sadly - the British establishment is untouchable. Even if it ever gets as far as court, there will be no prosecutions - recent experience of Alastair "Pants-On-Fire" Carmichael clearly demonstrates that.
verminstar
Banned
Anyway I'd love to stay and chat but I got grown up stuff to do so will check back later...good day to all ^^
As a part of a larger campaign to throw a spanner in the works of this nightmarish stupidity it might well be worth it.
These are unique times. Things are changing very rapidly. People are utterly sick to death with the sort of politics we've had for the last 3 or so decades - it's a golden opportunity for someone. But we need to be pro-active in order to keep the chance alive.
If we sit back and do nothing then we'll be doing some quite catastrophic damage to the future of our country.
Ha! It does look like one of those silly Facebook things
it actually reveals the 13 totally INSANE secrets to burning belly fat that insurers don't want you to know....Seriously though, I agree all the qualities are important and in some respects can be seen as similar and in an ideal world you'd want all those qualities, but the question is what in your opinion is the most important of each pair if you had to chose.
- independence or respect for elders?
- obedience or self-reliance?
- considerate or to be well-behaved?
- curiosity or good manners?
The reason is the answers are an excellent indicator of a persons tendency to "authoritarianism". This characteristic, which is independent of left/right/liberal/conservative leanings is the tendency when someone is "stressed" (not work stress but society stress, seeing their society as under attack e.g. gay marriage, immigrants, collapse of unions, fox hunting ban, death of the working class, police brutality based on race) to look for an authoritarian figure.
These figures project personal power, offer simple "fixes", offer to defend against "the other". The "authoritarian" voter is willing to see things like civil liberties and the rule if law eroded to help active these aims.
Trump is a manifestation of such an authority figure for the Americans. Putin is such a figure for the Russians.
There appears to be a match between authoritarian voters and anti EU voters.
The post 9/11 world with terrorism, financial instability, refugees, climate change etc has been the perfect "stress" inducer for "authoritarian" voters, hence the rise of Put in but also the far right in Europe, UKIP in the UK etc.
wait, so despite Leave claiming that EU membership made us powerless to prevent undesirables coming to the UK
1200+ Albanians
1100+ Romanians "some of which may relate to specific enforcement activity related to groups of individuals from these countries"
Over 4000EU nationals were removed from the UK in one year alone.....
So contrary to the open border Leave painted, it appears we can control our borders and deport eu nationals
Remind me again why we voted Leave?
Yes indeed.
Are you aware of how different it is to deport someone from, for example, Albania compared to how easy it is to deport someone from Afghanistan? We can't just put them on a boat and leave them on the beach at Normandy - by international law we have to maintain their wellbeing while they are in our system.
As I said, the referendum result may well result in fewer EU immigrants. But the number of immigrants from god-knows-where will rise without the EU to assist us, and without the EU we're going to have a much harder time figuring out what to do with them when they get here.
Yes indeed.
What was that picture actually talking about? You and I both know that, although there will be denials, most of the "coming over here and taking our jobs" rhetoric was aimed at a particular demographic.
A demographic that a lot of people, potentially people who are the most likely to commit violence and civil disorder, thought this referendum was about.
What are they going to do when they realize the opposite? What is going to happen when factories start shutting and people stop hiring?
Yaffle
Volunteer Moderator
In good news, the IMF has today said it expects merely bad, and not catastrophic economic news for the UK...
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2016/update/02/pdf/0716.pdf
(drop in growth, which is good news as it's growth. Which is better than contraction/recession).
Of course, these are experts so we need to disregard them. Or is that only experts that disagree with Michael Gove? I get confused.
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2016/update/02/pdf/0716.pdf
(drop in growth, which is good news as it's growth. Which is better than contraction/recession).
Of course, these are experts so we need to disregard them. Or is that only experts that disagree with Michael Gove? I get confused.
Javert
Volunteer Moderator
Problem is, I think there are quite a few people around who think we should do just that, and when they hear that it's against "International law" to do that, they probably don't care. Probably won't state it openly on forums like this though.
Ha! It does look like one of those silly Facebook things
Seriously though, I agree all the qualities are important and in some respects can be seen as similar and in an ideal world you'd want all those qualities, but the question is what in your opinion is the most important of each pair if you had to chose.
- independence or respect for elders?
- obedience or self-reliance?
- considerate or to be well-behaved?
- curiosity or good manners?
The reason is the answers are an excellent indicator of a persons tendency to "authoritarianism". This characteristic, which is independent of left/right/liberal/conservative leanings is the tendency when someone is "stressed" (not work stress but society stress, seeing their society as under attack e.g. gay marriage, immigrants, collapse of unions, fox hunting ban, death of the working class, police brutality based on race) to look for an authoritarian figure.
These figures project personal power, offer simple "fixes", offer to defend against "the other". The "authoritarian" voter is willing to see things like civil liberties and the rule if law eroded to help active these aims.
Trump is a manifestation of such an authority figure for the Americans. Putin is such a figure for the Russians.
There appears to be a match between authoritarian voters and anti EU voters.
The post 9/11 world with terrorism, financial instability, refugees, climate change etc has been the perfect "stress" inducer for "authoritarian" voters, hence the rise of Put in but also the far right in Europe, UKIP in the UK etc.
Not only a match here, but a wider conservative vs. liberal divide.
Conservative voters tend to react much more strongly to perceived threats and fears than liberals, and to emphasize different core values. There's a great graph about these studies but it takes more explanation than I can type up right now.
Mostly unrelated and something I wanted to share because it's insightful and funny:
John Cleese talks about the good sides of Extremism.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HLNhPMQnWu4
just to add, as part of the EU we benefited from the Dublin agreement, which meant that nonEU migrants could be sent back to the "first arrival" country.
So any Afghans/Syrians etch who did get through the border controls could simply be sent back to the EU country they first arrived. This was simple as it was to an EU country so no issues with sending them back to a war zone or to be tortured etc.
Outside the EU we might no benefit from that, so any that make it here, we have to deal with.....
Well the thing is how far this goes.
A Drop in Growth Sounds likely as long as UK has not Declared Article 50.
It seems alot of this is Based on the Idea that UK Government can Negotiate Deals before they even Declare Article 50. And then make sure that they wont take any more Damage than what is absolutely unavoidable.
And there is also the thing that unlike First Expectations which Talked about Recession. The UK did not Declare Article 50 right away. But has yet to do this. Which means that there is no Deadlines yet. Which Buffers the Loss a bit.
I dont think however that the EU will Play along with this.
Doing any Negotiations with UK before Article 50 was actually Declared, Would result in a Major Uproar among the Memberstates.
The EU has little Choice in this Matter, If it is to Survive it needs to make sure that every Country Realizes that Leaving the EU is nothing that will give an Advantage of any sort. And I am fairly sure they will do this. Otherwise the EU Falling Apart is an very Realistic Scenario.
Inspired by this thread, I got to wondering how well the experts actually do. How accurate are predictions of the likes of the IMF when you compare them to the reality that followed. The answer in short is; not very - especially when you start forecasting more than 12 months ahead.
Economist article from Jan 2016 here, which contains references to couple of academic papers. An older statistical analysis (1999) here, containing much of the same findings.
It seems that the models are generally pretty good when it's business as usual, but show no skill when unusual circumstances come into play. That doesn't make predictions about Brexit wrong - its just something to bear in mind when talking about GDP growth forecasts and how much confidence you can place in them.
An important note (and one not for the Brexit camp): When they've tended to be most wrong is when expected growth hasn't happened. So many models may be overstating expected growth, not understating.
If you find a way to predict these unusual circumstances, you're in for a ton of money ^^
Economic forecasts are usually made under the ceteris paribus clause, which excludes external effects such as mentioned 'unusual circumstances'. They're just not calculable and making a forecast for every possible scenario would be way to time consuming.
However, as you said, those forecasts are pretty good when it comes to business as usual. That said, you can expect them to come true, unless an unusual circumstance, such as a Exit from the Brexit (a Br(Exit)^2), occurs.
And now, in addition to muttering about bringing the death penalty back for coup plotters, purging 50k people including teachers, Turkey has told academics not to leave the country.
With antics like that I'm glad we're out of the EU seeing as Turkey is joining the EU this month and all 80 million Turks could come yo the UK for free NHS treatment and benefits......../s
With antics like that I'm glad we're out of the EU seeing as Turkey is joining the EU this month and all 80 million Turks could come yo the UK for free NHS treatment and benefits......../s
I'd put forward the position that Brexit itself is beyond the ability of the models to accurately predict. As I said earlier, application of them is as much art as science and past data (which heavily influences how these perform) just doesn't exist for this scenario.
Javert
Volunteer Moderator
You are possibly right, but does this mean nobody should have tried? In the end, lots of people tried and most of them came to the conclusion that the UK will be worse off both in the short and long term based on brexit. The short term part has already come true. Sure, they won't get the exact numbers right, but they can probably predict the trend.
We also know that the vast majority of experts in every field of human activity found it hard to envisage a scenario in which the UK would be better off outside the EU in the long term, except for the scenario where the EU itself collapses, in which case everyone will be worse off anyway.