General / Off-Topic UK Calls General Election for 8th June 2017

[Javert]

Starting a thread to discuss this morning's announcement that the UK has called a snap general election for June 2017.

My first question would be - I thought the UK now has fixed term parliaments of 5 years long, so how can TM just call a GE at her own convenience - this is exactly what the fixed term parliament act was supposed to avoid.

Second thought - what does this mean for Brexit, and why on earth did she trigger article 50 only 2 weeks ago if she is now creating 2 months of delay by calling a general election? Surely she should have called it before invoking A50 as this creates a 2 month delay whilst the clock which cannot be stopped is still ticking? Seems rather odd, although what's clear is that she would only call an election is she is 99% certain she will win with an increased majority than before. Seems risky though.

 

[Sir.Tj]

Oh joy.....

 

[ianw]

Well I guess she figured calling it after A50 stops it becoming a "lets stay in the EU" election.

Interesting to see how the parties play it now.

 

[EdzUp]

Apparently she's really popular at the moment so maybe this is to shut up the "not elected" whiners.

 

[Marak]

This wasn't unexpected. If she wins it puts an end to most of the bickering over brexit going on in Westminster right now.

 

[Robert Maynard]

Well I guess she figured calling it after A50 stops it becoming a "lets stay in the EU" election.

Interesting to see how the parties play it now.

Right up until the point that one party approached the EU and gets told "Yes, we'd (probably) allow you to revoke the invocation of Article 50".

 

[beelbeebub]

Just a thought.......what happens if she loses?......

 

[Robert Maynard]

This wasn't unexpected. If she wins it puts an end to most of the bickering over brexit going on in Westminster right now.

Given the apparent unelectability of Jeremy, it's more a matter of how much of a majority the Conservatives get rather than whether or not they will win.

 

[Robert Maynard]

Just a thought.......what happens if she loses?......

Big smiles North of the border.

 

[Rob At Work]

If it wasn't for TJ baning polls on the forum, a general election would not have been necessary.

We have to get our voting fix some how!

 

[Thomas Mainwaring]

Anyone remember "now is not the time"? No? Let's have another divisive vote in a few weeks then.

Oh well.

 

[Ashnak]

Given the apparent unelectability of Jeremy, it's more a matter of how much of a majority the Conservatives get rather than whether or not they will win.

As a non-UKinian European, the only Jeremy from the UK who comes to my mind is Clarkson

 

[Robert Maynard]

Anyone remember "now is not the time"? No? Let's have another divisive vote in a few weeks then.

Oh well.

Ah - but "now is not the time" for TM only for anything that may change the Union....

 

[ianw]

Right up until the point that one party approached the EU and gets told "Yes, we'd (probably) allow you to revoke the invocation of Article 50".

Thought that was a no-no.

Though nothing about this would surprise me at this point tbh..

 

[AhabTheBad]

I'm no expert but this is what I think is happening.

Firstly, the election has to approved by parliament. You need 2/3rds majority to suspend the fixed term parliamentary act to hold a snap election (please feel free to correct me if I'm wrong).

Second, this election is to gain a mandate for carrying out brexit, now that A50 has been triggered. Due to the French and German elections happening this year no serious negotiation was going to happen until the latter half of the year anyway (as you can't be sure who you'll be dealing with on a national governmental level, even though the EU negotiation team remains the same).

I'm sure the Tories would have liked to keep going (Corbyn has been the gift that keeps giving) but I believe they saw a window of opportunity to increase their majority and quiet others before the brexit negotiations really kicked off.

It is risk but it's a calculated risk. Although with the way elections have been going on the last few years, who knows what's going to happen!

 

[Yaffle]

I'm no expert but this is what I think is happening.

Firstly, the election has to approved by parliament. You need 2/3rds majority to suspend the fixed term parliamentary act to hold a snap election (please feel free to correct me if I'm wrong).

Second, this election is to gain a mandate for carrying out brexit, now that A50 has been triggered. Due to the French and German elections happening this year no serious negotiation was going to happen until the latter half of the year anyway (as you can't be sure who you'll be dealing with on a national governmental level, even though the EU negotiation team remains the same).

I'm sure the Tories would have liked to keep going (Corbyn has been the gift that keeps giving) but I believe they saw a window of opportunity to increase their majority and quiet others before the brexit negotiations really kicked off.

It is risk but it's a calculated risk. Although with the way elections have been going on the last few years, who knows what's going to happen!

Pretty much sums it up, yes.

 

[beelbeebub]

This is potentially bad news for Corbyn.

If the polls are half right, labour a heading towards a big loss.

So far JC has been able ti cling on based on his assertion that the "people" (labour party members) want him.

But the true test of a party leader comes with general elections.

If JC loses, and with the conservatives having moved right, the scene is set fora centerist labour party (new new labour) which the majority of it's mp want.

 

[Javert]

Pretty much sums it up, yes.

2/3 majority required to call the election - what if the other parties don't vote for it and choose to keep the Tories in power Seems preposterous but technically could happen as Tories don't actually have two thirds of the seats - logic would be - the tories got us into the Brexit situation and it's up to them to get us out of it without playing silly games.

Or - other parties could say we are only going to vote for this if the FTP act is repealed completely rather than suspended temporarily.

This is potentially bad news for Corbyn.

If the polls are half right, labour a heading towards a big loss.

So far JC has been able ti cling on based on his assertion that the "people" (labour party members) want him.

But the true test of a party leader comes with general elections.

If JC loses, and with the conservatives having moved right, the scene is set fora centerist labour party (new new labour) which the majority of it's mp want.

If?

Edit: Also, about 48% of people or more are against Brexit - what if large numbers of people all protest vote for an anti brexit party like Lib Dems or some other alliance that springs up? Perhaps this is what they are also afraid of - someone setting up a centrist anti brexit party that is credible. Plan is to call this election quickly in order to avoid anyone having time to organize this.

 

[Yaffle]

2/3 majority required to call the election - what if the other parties don't vote for it and choose to keep the Tories in power Seems preposterous but technically could happen as Tories don't actually have two thirds of the seats - logic would be - the tories got us into the Brexit situation and it's up to them to get us out of it without playing silly games.

Indeed, but the process is the process.

 

[Minonian]

Approx when the next elections meant to occur by filling the current term? Before or after the 2 years negotiation ended, and UK breaks away?