Proposal Discussion Economy - limited credits

If the deflation comes about as a result of a central bank removing money from the money supply, then I agree with you.

Right.

However, if there is a fixed supply of money, prices will tend to fall as a result of economic growth. This is "secular deflation", and there is no actor transferring anything, so no-one to be unethical.

What I'm thinking is that if in this scenario, I have borrowed in currency, then the growth in wealth combined with the fixed supply of currency means currency becomes increasingly valuable over time; the value of my debt is increasing in real terms - and this means a transfer of wealth between those who have borrowed to those who have saved.

This has not been caused by a central bank, but it is still unethical, because it is an involuntary contract.

What do you think?
 
Right.



What I'm thinking is that if in this scenario, I have borrowed in currency, then the growth in wealth combined with the fixed supply of currency means currency becomes increasingly valuable over time; the value of my debt is increasing in real terms - and this means a transfer of wealth between those who have borrowed to those who have saved.

This has not been caused by a central bank, but it is still unethical, because it is an involuntary contract.

What do you think?

Sorry to intrude, but I'd like to put a bit of, lets say, different way to look at it:

Going a bit unorthodox on this, if one consider that currency is an asset - like any other - if you are in a long position (have cash based wealth) and there is inflation (the relative value of your asset lowers), regardless of origin, you are not being "cheated out of it", it is just you did a less optimal choice in terms of your investment.
In this scenario, going short ("borrowing") would be a better option.

Likewise, if you have deflation (value of currency increases) if you keep currency, then you did a good (in principle) investment decision. And if you went short, well, not a very good idea.

Ofc that you have reality based limits on going short on physical assets, but it makes a interesting analysis.
 
If the deflation comes about as a result of a central bank removing money from the money supply, then I agree with you.

However, if there is a fixed supply of money, prices will tend to fall as a result of economic growth. This is "secular deflation", and there is no actor transferring anything, so no-one to be unethical.

Right, as a result of economic growth, and also population growth. So, as the population grows, if there is a fixed amount of money, prices and incomes will necessarily fall because per capita there is less money to go around. That's one reason why the monetary supply tends to grow over the course of history.

So, if the game is attempting to simulate economic growth, it should also be simulating population growth, and as a result, a rising supply of money and, generally, how that tends to manifest itself in higher prices.

Otherwise, if prices are flat or falling, the incentive to trade tends to decrease.
 
Are we really not going to have player to player trading? Will we be able to build any ships or parts and sell them? Will we be able to give credits to other players? We can probably at least drop things in space for others to scoop if we want to, right?
 

Yaffle

Volunteer Moderator
Are we really not going to have player to player trading? Will we be able to build any ships or parts and sell them? Will we be able to give credits to other players? We can probably at least drop things in space for others to scoop if we want to, right?

You need the DDF. See the last part under the spoiler tag:

It's been a good week for the internal process! Here's another finalized topic, thanks again for all your input.

Goals

  • Simple to use – the actual mechanisms of trading should be easy for the player to grasp. The complexities in trading come from the choices that the player makes.
  • Provide interesting choice – trading should provide the player with interesting, but understandable choices.
  • Risk/Reward – trading is a risk vs. reward activity and should provide the opportunity for players to balance risk with potential rewards.
  • Impact the game world – player actions should have a noticeable effect on the game world. They enable player choices to determine the fate of aspects of the galaxy.
Markets
  • Markets are where the majority of trading takes place
    • They can be space stations, very large ships, or any other suitable structure
    • Markets come in a variety of types which determine which goods can potentially be present – ie not all markets include all goods categories
      • Space Stations – trades commodities and essential ship supplies
      • Shipyards – trades limited commodities, ships, ship modules, ship supplies
      • Factories – Specialist markets for particular commodities.
      • Black Markets – private markets accessible based on player reputation, trades illegal commodities, requires contact to access, can be part of a legal market
      • Pirate Bases – ignore fines and bounties, commodities, trades illegal commodities, requires contact to locate
      • Smuggler Bases – ignores fines, but not bounties, trades commodities and illegal commodities, requires contact for location – the background simulation determines some properties of a market
  • The list displayed for the market is determined by:
    • Legality: Commodities of allowed types only are shown
    • Profile: Commodities appropriate to the location are shown
    • Supply/Demand: How much is for sale and what the current demand for an item is at the given price
  • Some markets will be indicated as specialist in some way. This usually means the availability of rare items.
  • Prices shown on the market:
    • Prices on the markets are fixed, based on the price for the displayed demand
    • Markets will have different modifiers and mark-up values
    • Players can attempt to change the offered price (for buy and sell) by contacting a dealer in a specific good. This can also mean that the supply (or demand) values can be exceeded – ie a dealer may be prepared to buy more than the demand level at a lower price. Specialist items that fall into a standardized category should be sold through a dealer as otherwise they will attract the standard price for their category.
      • Using the negotiation changes the price by a value derived from the trading reputation too – as long as the amount is worth their while (this will be a settable value – probably if over 50% of the market demand)
  • Freight missions available from markets for transporting goods for a reward
    • Missions to be discussed in detail in future topic.
    • Although a reasonable spread of missions will always be available.
  • To determine a market’s properties the background simulation takes into account the following system data:
    • Supply and demand based on market location, e.g.
      • Agricultural location
        • Supplies Food
        • Demands Machinery, Fertiliser
      • Politics/laws
        • Determines which commodities are illegal
      • Population size and standard of living
        • Increases supply and demand of specific commodities
      • Meta events like conflicts and disasters
        • Affects commodity availability and prices
        • Can be generated by player actions
      • Aggregated Player trading in the system
    • Market data availability
      • When docked all available market data is available
        • This may be modified by ranking
      • When in system market prices are available
      • Outside the system only general information is available
      • Player’s trade history is available in detail
      • Newsfeeds provide useful economic data for all systems
    • Market Data Content
      • Historical data will be aggregated
      • Full price data for limited time
      • Then aggregated for full timeline
    • Players can cancel a trade before leaving the trading screen
    • Players can dump cargos at substantially reduced value if it cannot be sold through the market normally.
      • Some dangerous cargos may need a fee to offload
      • Jettisoning cargos within a defined distance of a station is illegal
Commodities

  • There is a list of different commodities
    • Each commodity has a baseline price
      • This is the starting price for the commodity in this market
      • This value is modified by background simulation
      • This value is modified by player trading
      • Buy and selling price is modified by the quantity of a commodity being traded
        • Repeated sales of the same commodity by the same player in the same market will be blocked
      • There are caps on prices to prevent unrealistic extremes (no negative values)
    • Based on background simulation data, rare alternate commodities can be generated
      • These commodities’ value increase the further the player is from the origin system
        • Value rarity modifiers are capped
    • Quantities of commodities that are purchased are limited by the player’s currently active ship’s cargo capacity.
    • Modules can be traded (although not when equipped)
    • Some commodities require specialist ship equipment
      • Attempting to transport commodities of these types without said equipment has effects:
        • Spoiling – the commodity is ruined
        • Alteration – the commodity changes type
        • Contamination – the commodity becomes hazardous
        • Packets of information can be obtained and traded like commodities
          • Tradable information includes:
            • System locations
            • Market locations
            • Resource gathering locations
            • Mission/event locations
            • Information packets automatically update the player’s galactic map as needed when they are acquired
            • Using a purchased packet means it cannot then be resold.

Player to Player Trading
  • Players can trade directly with each other
    • The player trade interface is available when both players are docked at the same market
    • The player trade interface is available when two players dock ships
  • The player trade interface is a secure swap allowing players to transfer credits/cargo
    • Both players must accept the trade before it occurs
      • Acceptance must be redone by both parties after any change in the trade
    • Trading occurs in real-time and can be interrupted (for example by being attacked) unless taking place at a space dock
    • Either player can cancel the trade at any time up to the point both agree

Click on the arrow by Dan's name for more.

Enjoy!
 
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Are we really not going to have player to player trading? Will we be able to build any ships or parts and sell them? Will we be able to give credits to other players? We can probably at least drop things in space for others to scoop if we want to, right?

  1. Apparently yes, although there are reasons why they may have to rethink this.
  2. No.
  3. See (1) (at the least, one-sided trades are effectively transfers).
  4. Yes but I believe at the moment they're marked as stolen (i.e. you get a record if spotted with them and they lose 50% of their value).
 
Right.



What I'm thinking is that if in this scenario, I have borrowed in currency, then the growth in wealth combined with the fixed supply of currency means currency becomes increasingly valuable over time; the value of my debt is increasing in real terms - and this means a transfer of wealth between those who have borrowed to those who have saved.

This has not been caused by a central bank, but it is still unethical, because it is an involuntary contract.

What do you think?

I think the deflation is predictable and will be accounted for in interest rates (I am assuming a free market in loans, not the artificial interest rates we have now).

You might as well claim it's unethical if you buy gold and then someone finds a gold asteroid and makes the price drop.
 
If a player buys a good, such as a pulse laser or a military laser, wealth has not been destroyed; it has only been exchanged. The currency has gone to the NPC (and presumably disappeared), but now the player owns a laser.

NPCs are currency sinks, but not wealth sinks; and if we are now talking in terms of using currency generation and currency sinks to prevent inflation, we see if generation exceeds sinking, we have deflation of NPC prices, if they are equal the game is fine (but this is impossible, too complex), if generation is less than sinking, in the end we run out of currency.

Money sinks cannot solve the money printing problem.

By comparison, a solution is *not* to print money.

First thing to remember is that it's a game. It really doesn't matter if they create a perfect system that makes sense IRL, as long as it works in the game. From memory of a similar thread that was often lost on some.

As FD set the price of goods (via the equations they put in place, which will have a ceiling and a floor vastly different than those IRL) and as there is no player crafting, the only issue is players accumulating vast amounts of cash.

In terms of wealth sinks, I always thought insurance should just cover the hull and not equipment (which I believe it currently does) and cargo (which it currently does not). That might be too annoying though. Fuel is an obvious wealth sink, in that it can be set up so larger ships use vastly more fuel than smaller ones, although I'd expect fuel to be a minor consideration.

Given how the markets will work (distance to source of good is a factor in its price), larger ships could have far smaller ranges, reducing the profit per unit and slowing down the accumulation.
 
If we have the printing of money, where NPC prices do not change over time, then NPC prices in real terms are dropping over time, and will become ridiculously cheap. This will unbalance the game.
Money is irrelevant to this. In terms of the game it's just another item which NPCs drop and trade: the fact that it - like modern day currency - is easily convertible to and from other item types isn't important.

Say that instead of a bounty which is paid for by an effectively infinite NPC cash reserve you just get some cargo and metal from the debris. You can then exchange that cargo and metal for money (or directly for other items, potentially). That NPC's cargo and metal didn't come from anywhere (except nominally from the same planetary economy). Take a mining laser to an asteroid, get some minerals, take them back to a shipyard. Again, you're transferring assets from the non-player part of the game (the difference between an asteroid and a really stupid NPC Anaconda with a dodgy cargo hold catch is not economically important) to the player part of the game. Again, those minerals you mined didn't come from anywhere (except the same system economy as before)

It doesn't matter whether you mine and refine all the minerals yourself from scratch to produce a pulse laser, or spend the same amount of time shooting pirates for the bounty to buy a pulse laser, either way you have transferred one pulse laser's worth of assets from the non-player part of the game to the player part of the game, and now you own a pulse laser which you previously didn't. This cannot reasonably be compensated for by automatically removing a pulse laser's worth of assets from the rest of the player-owned asset list. Therefore, the total player-owned asset list has increased.

In any game where the player's can reasonably expect to, on average, make progress, the average player asset value will increase over time. Indeed, even if on average players slowly lose assets over time, provided a starting player has some assets it's possible for the average player asset value to increase over time (and the average active player asset value to increase even faster that that), because unlike the "real" economy it is possible with 100% reliability to reincarnate yourself and reset your asset count should your net worth fall below that level.
 
You might as well claim it's unethical if you buy gold and then someone finds a gold asteroid and makes the price drop.
Well, indeed - that gold asteroid was just added to the universe by the game. That's basically printing money. The only gold asteroids you should find are the ones where players have chosen to take existing gold, stick it together in a big lump, and then leave it around.

And don't get me started on how unrealistic these "stars" are - seriously, the amount of hydrogen you can scoop off just one of them is going to totally unbalance the game economy, and there's what, 400 billion of them? Just hanging around near one collecting energy is overpowered enough - who leaves free energy sources just floating in space like that?

Bring on "Elite: the cold and empty void of intergalactic space", I say - none of this having matter or energy just handed out by the game (no, not even a starting Sidewinder for the player - eventually enough of them will get blown up that the gas and dust will condense under gravity into a planetary system, and then inflation really starts)
 
Building black holes for Players to spend their credits on is not difficult for FD to balance (technically anyway).

As there is no Player manufacturing the economy is not as tricky to manage as in some games where you have to balance NPC trade with Player trade.
 
Building black holes for Players to spend their credits on is not difficult for FD to balance (technically anyway).

Imagine you're sitting in a room and you have a radiator to heat the room and a large fridge to cool the room. You have to have them both on, and you want the room to be a steady 25C. Not a problem - there's one input for heat, one for cooling.

Now imagine you have 10,000 inputs for heat (one player each), and you can have as many inputs for cold as you want, but the rate as which the heating units run is beyond your control, and the rate at which the cooling units run is variable (depends how much players use them, which will vary over time).

It's impossible to keep the room at 25C. In fact, it'll be impossble to keep the temperature from running away from you and ending up roasting, or freezing. It's just too hard to do this by manual balancing of heating and cooling.

Broader, self-balancing principles are necessary.
 
So, if the game is attempting to simulate economic growth, it should also be simulating population growth, and as a result, a rising supply of money and, generally, how that tends to manifest itself in higher prices.

Even with a static population, you'd need more money over time, as people become richer - the value of their transactions rise.

Otherwise, if prices are flat or falling, the incentive to trade tends to decrease.

Welcome to Japan, and Europe in the near future. Most EU countries are now slipping into deflation. It's because the populations are aging.
 
Are we really not going to have player to player trading? Will we be able to build any ships or parts and sell them? Will we be able to give credits to other players? We can probably at least drop things in space for others to scoop if we want to, right?

My impression is this is still an open question, and on the whole that functionality in this direction will be limited, even sharply limited.

(And then I saw in the very next post I was mistaken - but I can't see how to delete this post).
 
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Going a bit unorthodox on this, if one consider that currency is an asset - like any other - if you are in a long position (have cash based wealth) and there is inflation (the relative value of your asset lowers), regardless of origin, you are not being "cheated out of it", it is just you did a less optimal choice in terms of your investment.

Say you work hard and earn 10,000 pounds. At the instant in time you are paid, the real value and face value are the same. The central bank then print tons of money. They now hold that money, and it's worth 10,000,000 in face value. Doing this however has devalued all money by say 10%.

Your 10,000 pounds is now worth 9,000 pounds - where the central bank by its action is now holding 10,000,000 in currency which simply did not exist before, which they now spend.
 
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Imagine you're sitting in a room and you have a radiator to heat the room and a large fridge to cool the room. You have to have them both on, and you want the room to be a steady 25C. Not a problem - there's one input for heat, one for cooling.

Now imagine you have 10,000 inputs for heat (one player each), and you can have as many inputs for cold as you want, but the rate as which the heating units run is beyond your control, and the rate at which the cooling units run is variable (depends how much players use them, which will vary over time).

It's impossible to keep the room at 25C. In fact, it'll be impossble to keep the temperature from running away from you and ending up roasting, or freezing. It's just too hard to do this by manual balancing of heating and cooling.

Broader, self-balancing principles are necessary.

Yep you can either spend all your time running counter-productively backwards and forwards between the radiator supply valve and the Freezer thermostat. Trying to judge if you've got the feedback loops balanced or overshot/undershot the mark.

Meanwhile the inhabitants of the room are all wearing thick parkers or sun shorts depending on their mood.

Or you can just stay by the freezer and open the door a little more if it gets hot and the people get nekkid.

Wait, see, close the door a tad if they start to put their parkers back on.
 
First thing to remember is that it's a game. It really doesn't matter if they create a perfect system that makes sense IRL, as long as it works in the game.

Yes. This is however *the* point. It is hard to get the right by fiat, and if it's wrong, the game will as time passes becomes increasingly unbalanced. That *is* the problem.

As FD set the price of goods (via the equations they put in place, which will have a ceiling and a floor vastly different than those IRL) and as there is no player crafting, the only issue is players accumulating vast amounts of cash.

Don't forget player trading. This is a key issue. It means we have a market for certain goods at free market prices and a market for goods which NPCs buy and sell at prices which never change.

If NPCs sell everything that a PC can obtain, and at a lower price, then it won't matter, because no one will trade - what would be the point. I think then it is likely PCs can obtain items NPCs cannot obtain, or at better prices.

In terms of wealth sinks

I may be wrong, but I strongly hold that wealth sinks *do not work*. It is impossible to manage the economy using this method; it's too simple a method for a complex system and as such it in ineffective. Additionally, it does not address the difference between the free market and the NPC market. Every MMORPG which uses wealth sinks has run-away inflation - simple examples are WoW and Eve-Online.
 
Don't forget player trading. This is a key issue. It means we have a market for certain goods at free market prices and a market for goods which NPCs buy and sell at prices which never change.

Only if player trading is a sizeable component of the market. It seems at the moment player trading takes place in the form of effectively moving goods from one NPC to another. Players are effectively Space Truckers. Not Market Moguls like in other games. There's no way to speculate beyond the size of your ships cargo hold as FD would seem to be reluctant to give players significant storage space.

The Player trading I read into from the DDF is to facilitate things like fuel transfer to a stranded ship in deep space. Then you can charge what you want, but the overall market for such trades will be minuscule.
 
You might as well claim it's unethical if you buy gold and then someone finds a gold asteroid and makes the price drop.

The ethicality of an action is derived from its motive. The very same action can be ethical by occurring from one particular motive, and unethical by occurring from another. E.g. killing another person - in self-defence, it's fine; from wanton aggression, not (an involuntary contract).

So if we see a central bank printing money because it wishes to obtain our wealth for its own use, this is unethical; it is theft, an involuntary contract.

We see also central banks apply an involuntary contract, using the force of law, to mandate their currency is the only legal tender in the nation.

OTOH, if someone goes out and finds a new gold asteroid, they're not doing this to obtain wealth from others; they're doing it to find new wealth. I also note it likely takes a good deal of time and effort and risk on their part to do so, and that the vast part of the wealth they obtain is derived from obtaining *new* gold, e.g. there is a genuine increase in real wealth, rather than by the devaluation of existing gold. Indeed, the devauation of existing gold *is of no benefit to the miners*, as it only acts to devalue the *new* gold they have found. It does not transfer that wealth to them; in fact, the opposite. This is unlike the central bank scenario, where devaluation of the currency held by others *is* the way in which their wealth is obtained by the bank.

However, despite these critical and fundamental differences in motive which clear distinguish between the two scenarios, we still do see in the latter scenario an increase in the supply and so the amount of gold and as such a proportional discouragement in the value of the gold, to the detriment of all existing holders of gold.

I think here we must think about the basic rule; all contracts must be voluntary and well-informed, except in self-defence.

I think the core issue here is that the holding of gold is a voluntary act. If I hold gold, I cannot then impose a contract on others by saying "*I* choose to hold gold, so *you* cannot mine any more".

This differs from the central bank fiat currency scenario by the range of contracts typically imposes by the State; there is only one legal tender, alternative wealth holdings other than gold are at least taxed at the rate of VAT, making them impossible chioces, etc. The holding of sterling is not a fully voluntary act, because many State-induced compulsions exist which make life extraordinarily difficult to those who live in the UK and choose not to hold any sterling.

If a central bank imposes itself upon the mass of people and then prints money, it is unethical by the compulsions involved. If a central bank however printed a currency which came with absolutely no obligations and an up front warning that the bank could print money and so devalue that which is held and people then *choose* to hold that currency, then it's okay. They knew what they were getting in to.
 
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