Hopes and fears for the new not-a-season business​ model

[krylite]

Well, I looked at the financial report material and while it's worrying for the future of ED dev about Frontier planning to move on to a third franchise (Harry Potter, James Bond, Space: 1999 ?) I'm still fairly optimistic ED won't be dropped after season 2 and the PS4 launch is over. The game seems to be attracting new players. And for what it's worth, yes, I believe for the price point, Frontier delivered a good deal compared to other genre games. It's not like pre-pay for COD: infinite where the hubbub lasts for a few months like a movie run of scripted confined playing space, then wait for the next COD game purchase. I noticed in the reports two main selling points to investors were sustaining a successful self-publishing model, and able to accommodate multiple and new franchises. And it looks like the company is doing financially well with no major short or long term liabilities. I'd rather ED be under the wing of a solid company rather than a flaky looking one that continues to get their revenue from sales of .jpg ships and barely alpha build demos and all kinds of murky texture progress reports. That said, I'd doubt Frontier will become like Steam which dropped the Half-life2 franchise after episode 2. ED is a classic quasi-simulation game that is going to be around for over a decade. A similar franchise I've seen with this level of continued interest is Flight Simulator X in its 12th year. Developers like pmdg.com and flightsimlabs.com continue to make addon sophisticated flow systems planes for FSX where each finished project costs an average of $75+ with two to five years of development. I think Frontier knows there continues to be new "generational" gamer interest in ED as well as ongoing player base support and it'll continue to be worked on however long it takes and spacelegs will come.

 

[Taimaru]

I also paid in advance and apart from the reduced roles in multi-crew and the fact 2.4 isn't out yet, I feel I have got my money's worth with extra features I wasn't expecting. But that is just my opinion (and maybe others as well).

Also, until someone posts an accurate list of all FD developers, their skills and what they are working on. the statement that FD are neglecting ED is just hyperbole. Granted you may not like some (or all) of the features of Horizons (you have that right) but it doesn't mean ED is being neglected.

Something I have noticed, along with FD being very quiet, is that Michael Brookes has been even more quiet than usual, enough for me to wonder if he was still working at Frontier (he is and he posted recently). That strongly suggests that Frontier are very hard at work with 2.4 and Season 3, not that they are neglecting ED. Of course I could be wrong , but chatting to Frontier at the Elite Meet in Bristol (they didn't give anything away unfortunately, lol), I didn't get the impression they were winding down ED, just the opposite.

Getting back to the original topic of "not-a-season" model, I actually think, after listening to David Braben's comments, that instead of paying in advance, we will have the option of paying for something already developed (like regular DLC) in addition to getting a Season pass (like other games) to get a discount. So if you enjoy ED, trust FD and want to save money you can get the Season pass at the beginning of the year, or pay throughout the year for individual updates if you think it's worth it - which could also mean you save money if you decide to skip an update.

 

[Space Dandy]

You are asking for something that is not stated in those simplistic terms of "employees per project" because you haven't read the reports and don't understand how to use the information they contain. Try starting there first if you hope to actually understand the topic.



I've gone over all the numbers in those threads. They refer to revenue and development man-hours for non-current assets, they don't refer to "employees per project". That is just not how the reports work.

I'm sorry but all of the information needed to show the clear discrepancy between Elite revenue, Planet Coaster revenue, and the proportion of development man-hours devoted to Planet Coaster is contained in those reports.

If you can't understand this then that is a problem that I cannot fix for you.

Spot on.

 

[CylonSurfer]

Whether you like it or not is another matter.

I think at this point, its safe to say that it's not just Devari. A casual glance at the forum paints a picture of general displeasure. Even some of the die hard long term players and white knights are starting to see and admit the issues.

 

[Viajero]

You are asking for something that is not stated in those simplistic terms of "employees per project" because you haven't read the reports and don't understand how to use the information they contain. Try starting there first if you hope to actually understand the topic.

I have. That is precisely how I know that you have zero idea and are simply speculating.

I'm sorry but all of the information needed to show the clear discrepancy between Elite revenue, Planet Coaster revenue, and the proportion of development man-hours devoted to Planet Coaster is contained in those reports.

You are arguing that significant resources are being diverted from Elite to other products. I will ask one more time, since the answer still seems to elude your list of "facts":

How many total employees has FDEV dedicated specifically to Elite, in each 2013, 2014, 2015 and 2016?

Only with those actual numbers you will start to be in a position to issue some educated guesses about your speculative claim.

 

[Space Dandy]

I think at this point, its safe to say that it's not just Devari. A casual glance at the forum paints a picture of general displeasure. Even some of the die hard long term players and white knights are starting to see and admit the issues.

Is about time too...some of us saw this coming..lol

 

[Devari]

I have. That is precisely how I know that you have zero idea and are simply speculating.

You can keep asking for information that is not expressed in those simplistic terms rather than reading the reports. It will not help your "opinion" in the slightest, other than demonstrating that you haven't read or understood any of the information I referenced.

I suspect that you simply can't understand the information contained in the annual reports and that is why you keep asking "how many employees per project" over and over.

You have been given the reference and information, if you can't understand it that is not my problem.

 

[Agony_Aunt]

You keep distorting the argument I'm making with these types of ridiculous claims. When did I claim to know what Braben is "thinking"?

Hmm.. well, ill pick the post where i came into this...

Not quite. FD is in the business of putting in the minimum possible investment to develop a "minimum viable product", then using revenue generated from that product to subsidize subsequent projects, and so on. This is what's happened with Elite being aggressively hyped during the first year, allowing FD to bring in over $60 million USD in revenue, then being promptly neglected while they focused on their next product.

FD's shareholders, however, are perfectly happy with the situation because in the meantime FD was developing Planet Coaster with that revenue. We've been getting a "minimum viable" product for Season 2, which will now take two full years instead of one year to deliver, and what little development efforts they do make will be focusing on the console market while the core game stagnates.

Now FD has a third "major Hollywood IP" lined up. You can guess what's going to happen over the next few years as they use low-maintenance revenue from both Elite console sales and Planet Coaster to subsidize that.

The endgame for FD in terms of Elite development is finally abandoning the "season model" for Elite because they quite simply have no financial incentive to put anything more than minimal resources into the game at this point. They've realized that there isn't enough trust or goodwill left in the community to pay for content in advance, so they're going to do what they can with ridiculously overpriced cosmetic DLC and the occasional OP "feature" DLC that they hope will get more money out of existing players for as little effort as possible.

There is no "10 year plan" for Elite. There isn't even a "5 year plan". There was a 3 year plan, and we're reaching the end of it. They will keep their inexpensive BGS servers running, which require very little resources due to the game's P2P architecture, probably develop a few OP features and cosmetic DLC over the next few years, but we will not be seeing all of those impressive and immersive features that Braben told everyone about. It quite simply would not be financially viable for them to do so given their focus is on making money for their shareholders.

The really amusing part here is that I identified this problem last year after looking at FD's financial reports and seeing how they were neglecting Horizons and funneling revenue from Elite to develop Planet Coaster instead. I could clearly see where things were headed and now that even the most optimistic Elite players are finally arriving at the same conclusions there's very little FD can do to spin the situation.

Braben, who owns 51% of FD, and the company's shareholders could care less about the situation. They aren't in the business of making Elite into a good game, they simply want to make as much money as possible in as short a time period as possible. Elite quite simply is not going to be seen as worthwhile for FD to invest more than the minimum amount of resources in at this point.

That is basically full of somehow knowing what is going on in Braben's mind. Yes yes, i know you point to "facts" which support your opinion, but those "facts" can be viewed in different ways. You think FD having a second or third IP is a bad thing for ED, i think it is a good thing for FD and ED. You think they have taken devs from ED because they don't care about ED, i contend they very much care about ED and that any diversion of resources is there to help the company grow and therefore ensure the success of ED.

You see?

As for this...

I didn't actually start any off-topic discussion,

I guess you didn't write this then?

Just wanted to be clear here, since your post didn't make any actual contribution to the discussion, and the nature of posting as a moderator might give other players the wrong impression about how the Elite forums are moderated.

Which i responded to up clarify the situation and hoped we could stop there. Its unfortunate when we are having a heated discussion that some people resort to claiming mods shouldn't be involved, no matter how many times Brett tells people that its fine for mods to be involved as long as they don't moderate the threads they are involved in.

 

[Viajero]

You can keep asking for information that is not expressed in those simplistic terms rather than reading the reports. It will not help your "opinion" in the slightest, other than demonstrating that you haven't read or understood any of the information I referenced.

I do indeed read those reports, and some of my post history here and in reddit would confirm as much. I could also argue, like you but in reverse, that you are actually the one who has not understood them but I ll stop short of such thing. Much rather we leave it at that.

The point of asking that information from you was simply so to make you realize that it is precisely not available, simplistic or otherwise, and hence that you have zero idea. I.e. you do not have the information you need to state that FDEV is diverting significant resources from Elite to other projects. All you basically have is information confirming that FDEV is indeed developing other projects.

You have been arguing all along on the basis of personal speculation and anecdotal evidence such as the "trust and goodwill" of the community for example, when the latest facts regarding record revenues point to plenty of trust and good will by that community etc. By and large your personal opinions, and not facts, have led the charge.

All I am asking is that you try and establish some facts first before continuing down that road. You are arguing that significant resources are being diverted from Elite to other products. Well, how many total employees has FDEV dedicated specifically to Elite, in each 2013, 2014, 2015 and 2016?

Only with those actual numbers you will start to be in a position to issue some educated guesses about your speculative claim.

 

[Devari]

That is basically full of somehow knowing what is going on in Braben's mind.

No, it isn't. It's a description of the underlying (and rather obvious) motives for a pattern of behavior. It is not mind-reading.

Sorry.

Nice try there, but I didn't suggest or imply that I had any telepathic abilities anywhere in my post.

I guess you didn't write this then?

I wrote that specifically in response to a non-productive post by a moderator, directed at myself, who was ridiculing the valid concerns I raised about the state of the game. You then decided to involve yourself in the issue despite the comment not being directed at you in any way.

You then proceeded to claim I was "going off-topic" after doing so yourself twice in this thread, both by trying to involve yourself in that unrelated discussion as well as bringing up Star Citizen.

I'm sorry but you quite simply aren't in any position to criticize me for "going off-topic" in this particular thread.

I could also argue, like you but in reverse, that you are actually the one who has not understood them but I ll stop short of such thing. Much rather we leave it at that.

I'm sorry but when you say something like this and then repeat the following nonsensical question again after I explained several times that it isn't how the reports are structured:

Well, how many total employees has FDEV dedicated specifically to Elite, in each 2013, 2014, 2015 and 2016?

That tells me you are doing one of two things at this point. You either didn't read anything I typed, or you are trying to troll/bait me into continuing a non-productive discussion.

Sorry. Nice try, but no.

 

[Agony_Aunt]

I didn't pay for the company to sell me a product in advance, and then do whatever they wanted with the revenue generated from Horizons instead of developing the product I paid for. I paid for FD to develop the features they advertised for the game I purchased, I wasn't making a contribution to their shareholders. When the features I paid for are reduced dramatically in scope and end up being 6 months to a full year late that does not encourage any confidence or trust in a customer.

Man, get over yourself. They haven't stopped development, sure its almost 6 months later than we expected or hoped for, but 2.4 is still on its way. Once 2.4 is delivered, FD have fulfilled their contract with you. And what will 2.4 be? Aliens is the hot bet at the moment... whether there will be any additional gameplay feautures is unknown. In theory, they could release almost anything and call it 2.4 because the only thing they promised about it was "a secret to be revealed".

At this point, you can kiss goodbye to the game and FD will owe you nothing further.

What i'm curious to know though is how you *know* FD have used your funds to develop PC. FD has long since paid off its loans that it took for transforming the company. Season 1 was delivered so people who paid for just season 1 have got their money's worth, and FD keep delivering new content to those people for free. Season 2 people have almost got their content. Just one more major patch to go. LTE owners are a grey area. FD can stop developing at any time and say they are done, and they will have fulfuilled their contract to them. LTE gives right to free updates as long as the game is in development. If they stop after 2.4, then that's the lifetime over. That isn't going to happen of course, but just raising the possibility.

FD have positive revenue, they are making money, so any assumption that FD have used the money you gave for Horizons on Planet Coaster is just pure speculation. For all we know, they didn't touch a penny of ED money for PC development. It might even be possible they are sinking profits from PC into developing ED.... would you be mad about that?

Perhaps we need to start a speculative thread on the PC forums how FD are using PC funds to develop ED! :O

 

[Viajero]

You are doing one of two things at this point. You either didn't read anything I typed, or you are trying to troll/bait me into continuing a non-productive discussion.

Not really, but you seem to prefer to argue based on personal speculation and anecdotal evidence, instead of trying to establish something as central to your argument as employee numbers dedicated to Elite in the past 4 years. I could argue that what you do is actually a non productive discussion, but here we are.

You still seem to have zero idea of some key facts that would support or hinder your speculation. Just want to make sure that is clear.

 

[Agony_Aunt]

Is about time too...some of us saw this coming..lol

Yes, its been coming for the last 2.5 years and will still be coming in another 2.5 years..... and 2.5 years after that....

Always the same every time we have an information drought. The end is coming, repent! And yet, so many of us keep playing and paying...

 

[Devari]

What i'm curious to know though is how you *know* FD have used your funds to develop PC.

I'm curious how you can actually ask that question if you've read my replies in this thread.

Why don't you take a guess at where I got that information?

I'll wait.

 

[CMDR GTR2014]

snip

snip

I'm sorry but you guys sound more like a damage control team then mods at this point.

(There's nothing wrong with that BTW... But gotta be tiring have to defend a game on every single post since 2.3)

 

[Viajero]

I'm sorry but you guys sound more like a damage control team then mods at this point.

Hehe, fair enough. If we are volunteer mods it is indeed because we love and enjoy the game. We all have some bias so obviously feel free to take my posts with a pinch/sack of salt of course!

 

[Lobey]

Long as they produce content and add new things as we go along I couldn't care less how they sell it. The original game was cheap for me (£50 last round of beta) - Horizons was something like £20-£30 (can't recall exactly) - 1 ps4 or xbox game new can cost £60 up. I really don't get folk moaning about pricing on PC games when you compare it to what being a gamer on a console has to pay if they want the latest and greatest on release.
Pc's cost more in hardware terms - but they destroy console on game prices - and they destroy DVD\Blu ray - going to cinema, theatre, zoo, theme park etc etc for value as well in terms of entertainment per penny - only paperback books prob represent as good an "investement". (oh, and maybe cheap supermarket cider if your a jakey )

 

[Devari]

They haven't stopped development, sure its almost 6 months later than we expected or hoped for, but 2.4 is still on its way. Once 2.4 is delivered, FD have fulfilled their contract with you.

Right. Reading these forums it sounds like lot of players are feeling that FD has done a really great job "technically fulfilling their contract with a minimum viable product" during the past 1.5 years so far with Horizons development.

That sounds like a great way to develop a game franchise and ensure your customers keep buying your product. Maybe their next DLC can be advertised as "contract will be technically fulfilled with a minimum viable product, again!"

 

[Space Dandy]

Yes, its been coming for the last 2.5 years and will still be coming in another 2.5 years..... and 2.5 years after that....

Always the same every time we have an information drought. The end is coming, repent! And yet, so many of us keep playing and paying...

I think maybe you need to read a little less into what I posted there matey especially when I was talking to someone else and not talking at all about "the sky is failling or dooo000oom".

I'm sorry but you guys sound more like a damage control team then mods at this point.

(There's nothing wrong with that BTW... But gotta be tiring have to defend a game on every single post since 2.3)

Indeed...lol

 

[Furinkazan]

I know one thing: i'm never buying an expansion sight unseen from FD ever again.

Also, i kinda like the pick and choose option, because as a solo player, 2.3 is largely useless to me.