I'm curious to know if the exuberance seen in the S&P 500 is generalized to the other major markets, but I can't really read German or French well enough to sense the implications in the press.
Typically, low commodity prices like oil & gas tend to be a boon to the Euro industrial base, and drives up profitability. Is that fueling the gains?
Germany is too export oriented (that's what most economists here seem to agree on), so while profitability on paper is high, productivity and production as such are pretty good, there's quite a risk that if any of the importing customers gets in trouble, that will have a very negative impact here.
And there's an influx of Chinese capital, especially into the medium-sized businesses, making everything overly expensive.
Same goes for real estate. Large cities show clear signs of a bubble.
Hmhm.. went trough that document:
http://www.starcapital.de/files/pub...tock_Market_Returns_Shiller_CAPE_Keimling.pdf
Under all the fancy math, it's still like trying to predict the weather. At the moment, I wouldn't make a 15 year prediction at all.
"Corporate" has used much of it's potential - the big guns in pretty much all sectors from food over car to chemical and electronics have eliminated/aquired pretty much all they can eliminate/aquire and they're completely clueless as where to move next.