This was not always the case in Colonia a few months ago. Expansion would sometimes skip what seemed to be the most likely candidates - with the criteria you mention - and pick the second on the list.
I'm not sure if this was related to distance; Colonia systems are very close together. I can't say if this is still happening, or if it has happened in other regions.
Colonia BGS cannot be compared to the regular BGS inside the bubble.
Considering how much Players are altering the % on a daily basis within only a few Systems, it's a complete there (from what I heard and observed).
One MF having two Wars in two Systems at the same time, absolute abysmal fluctuations of the % on a daily basis etc.
I'm happy I only have to worry about the slightly less broken BGS on this side of the Galaxy
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