A little insight into the state of the populated galaxy today: factions and allegiance

[Mangal Oemie]

I am a bit of a data/data viz geek, and since in general it is a little hard to grasp what the state of the bubble is, I wanted to go a bit beyond the pie chart of systems by allegiance. I ended up grabbing the top factions by controlling systems (two or more) which comes to 1,803 factions out of 75,759 from eddb.io. This is probably not 100% reliable because it relies on systems being visited by CMDRs running one of the apps that feed EDDB, but it's as good as we can get.

Taking these top 1,803 allows us still to see some detail - add more, and the 0 and 1 system controlling factions will completely dominate.

First, a scatter plot of controlling systems by assets controlled. At the bottom left, where the colors get a bit weird, this is because of overlapping data points.

The following two are histograms of systems controlled and assets owned:

What this shows is that large factions owning many systems are exceedingly rare, and perhaps even more so for factions owning a large number of assets.

 

[Mangal Oemie]

And finally, showing those histograms by superpower allegiance: systems controlled, and assets.

These show how many factions of a particular allegiance rule the same number of systems, or own the same number of assets.

For reference: systems controlled

Alliance controlled: 712 -- 3.5%
Empire controlled: 5,170 -- 25.3%
Federation controlled: 6,168 -- 30.1%
Independent: 8,408 -- 41.1%

 

[stridecolossus]

Nice work, surprised that the alliance has so few systems, I expected them to be the smallest but not that small. Poor alliance, always a bridesmaid...

 

[DNA-Decay]

Nice work, surprised that the alliance has so few systems, I expected them to be the smallest but not that small. Poor alliance, always a bridesmaid...

There was a lovely Livestream with Dav where he showed a Pie graph which included the percentage of systems that were by default Alliance.
(goes to get the screen grab that I keep on my INARA Gallery - Bloody Artie and his automated pic culling bot. I pay every year, I should not have holes punched in my gallery grumble grumble)

Anyways it was something like 1.3% of inhabited systems, which eddb.io had as about 19,500 at the time, so we started with only 256 systems.

And you gotta remember that the Alliance was only 73 years old in 3300.
But since the CMDRs of the Alliance started work we are at 712.


[video=youtube_share;YGqndJFKOfA]https://youtu.be/YGqndJFKOfA?t=1799[/video]

Oh heres a fresh screenie if you dont want to enjoy an hour and a half with Dav.
Screenie is from Jan 3303.

 

[Mangal Oemie]

well, and since it was brought up, one more chart

It's ugly, as I did this in Google Sheets (which, after attempting a scatterplot, i now won't use for anything dataviz), but shows the growth rates since launch. Alliance went from 1.17% at launch, to 2,7% in January as in the post above, and today it is 3.5%

That makes for this rather dramatic chart: (as per Aug 7th)

Thanks, of course, to the efforts of Alliance CMDRs, and a receptive galaxy clamoring for freedom, self-determination and mutual aid.

 

[Deleted member 110222]

well, and since it was brought up, one more chart

It's ugly, as I did this in Google Sheets (which, after attempting a scatterplot, i now won't use for anything dataviz), but shows the growth rates since launch. Alliance went from 1.17% at launch, to 2,7% in January as in the post above, and today it is 3.5%

That makes for this rather dramatic chart: (as per Aug 7th)

http://i71.photobucket.com/albums/i135/MangalOemie/allegiance-growth-Aug7_3303_zpse8b6diiq.png

Thanks, of course, to the efforts of Alliance CMDRs, and a receptive galaxy clamoring for freedom, self-determination and mutual aid.

I'm very rubbish at charts. That last one shows the Alliance to be expanding disproportionately compared to the filthy Empire and Federation?

 

[Mangal Oemie]

indeed. It started very small though, so a jump from 1.17 to 3.5% of systems ruled is a massive growth rate. Both Empire and Federation have lost systems to primarily Independents as well as Alliance, but Federation considerably more (lost about 10%, whereas Empire lost 5%) -- which likely has mostly to do with where they are in the bubble, and the Empire being very "consolidated", i.e. in Imp space, almost every system is blue. In the Federation, there are always indy systems nearby, so it's far more a red-yellow mix in Federation space.

It also seems to me from this whole series of charts that focused BGS play of supporting and growing a particular minor faction is largely an Independent and Alliance activity. The biggest Empire faction, East India Company, controls 20 systems and owns 36 stations. The biggest Federation faction, Blood Brothers of Alrai, 15 and 30.

Whereas for the Alliance this is 26 and 50 (Wolf 406 Transport & Co), and for the Independents, it is 34 and 43 (The Winged Hussars)

Put in another way:
1st Indy faction: #1
1st Alliance faction: #9
1st Empire faction: #17
1st Federation faction: #35

https://eddb.io/faction

 

[Ian Doncaster]

It also seems to me from this whole series of charts that focused BGS play of supporting and growing a particular minor faction is largely an Independent and Alliance activity.

I wondered how much of this was due to those allegiances being more or less popular when creating factions - i.e. if there's more independent factions there will also be more large independent factions

EDDB is not completely reliable about what is or isn't a PMF, of course, but it counts:
Alliance: 28
Empire: 161
Federation: 144
Independent: 388 (excluding Colonia)

That would certainly seem to support that theory - though the extent to which it does surprises me: I'd expected there to be far more Independent factions relative to Federal or Imperial ones.

 

[Schlack]

I wondered how much of this was due to those allegiances being more or less popular when creating factions - i.e. if there's more independent factions there will also be more large independent factions

EDDB is not completely reliable about what is or isn't a PMF, of course, but it counts:
Alliance: 28
Empire: 161
Federation: 144
Independent: 388 (excluding Colonia)

That would certainly seem to support that theory - though the extent to which it does surprises me: I'd expected there to be far more Independent factions relative to Federal or Imperial ones.

One of the main factors in faction size I suspect to be location. Out on the fringe with low traffic and low pop systems, easy steamrolling is quite possible.

 

[DNA-Decay]

Need some way to convey "High Value Targets".
Population can be grepped from eddb.io but things like number of high tech systems or numbers of Orbis owned are harder to package.
Some way of characterizing what each of the PMFs have achieved.

For example the Diamond Frogs had a couple of bad starts, but then they set up in a high population system and have achieved a lot.

I don't know that another "Rise To Power" should happen, but it did provide an opportunity for the various groups to measure themselves against each other, and to stake a claim on "We do this".

During Rise To Power there was one poster who would constantly chip at the groups challenging them to offer a reason to support. He was a bit of a troll, but at that time all the groups really made their presence felt. It was a thriving and contested political community. I miss SEPP and the Commies being loud and proud. The drama of PalCon and the Frogs.

These days we fight our battles out of the public eye.

 

[Mangal Oemie]

I wondered how much of this was due to those allegiances being more or less popular when creating factions - i.e. if there's more independent factions there will also be more large independent factions

EDDB is not completely reliable about what is or isn't a PMF, of course, but it counts:
Alliance: 28
Empire: 161
Federation: 144
Independent: 388 (excluding Colonia)

That would certainly seem to support that theory - though the extent to which it does surprises me: I'd expected there to be far more Independent factions relative to Federal or Imperial ones.

BGS play is certainly not restricted to only those factions that are officially considered Player Minor Factions. Our own group supports multiple factions. Only one of them is recognized as a PMF by FD. So, I am not really sure I get your point: 1) the small number of Alliance PMFs doesn't explain at all why Alliance has disproportionately large factions. 2) Indy PMFs are more than Alliance, Empire and Federation combined, but you expected it to be even more?

 

[Maxmilian Czhilli]

I don't know that another "Rise To Power" should happen, but it did provide an opportunity for the various groups to measure themselves against each other, and to stake a claim on "We do this".

During Rise To Power there was one poster who would constantly chip at the groups challenging them to offer a reason to support. He was a bit of a troll, but at that time all the groups really made their presence felt. It was a thriving and contested political community. I miss SEPP and the Commies being loud and proud. The drama of PalCon and the Frogs.

These days we fight our battles out of the public eye.

I think I was that troll, or one of them at least.

For what it's worth, after a bit of prodding, the AEDC provided me with a reason to support them. Shame I was without my gaming PC for the main event and unable to take part.

I enjoyed the drama and finding out more about all the player groups. It's a pity that all this player activity isn't more visible; it's far more dynamic and interesting than the stodgy power politics on Galnet. I agree that another Rise to Power is not the way to go, but there has to be some way that all this player activity can be showcased for the wider community.

 

[Mangal Oemie]

oh, heck, we agree...

We'd love for FD to acknowledge for instance that the Alliance took Ross 128, and that we're currently in a major conflict with Federation CMDRs trying to reclaim it.

Now that the forum threads have died down, nobody but us really even knows this conflict is happening!

 

[Ian Doncaster]

BGS play is certainly not restricted to only those factions that are officially considered Player Minor Factions.

Of course not - though the number of adopted factions is probably in rough proportion to the number of created factions. It gives a rough estimate.

I was mainly wondering if the reason independent factions were the most prominent was because there were so many more of them - and my impression from the PMF names I'd seen while wandering through the bubble was that there was. As it turns out, no - there are more, but nowhere near enough to explain why they're so large compared to Federal or Imperial.

the small number of Alliance PMFs doesn't explain at all why Alliance has disproportionately large factions

Well - it might be that all the Alliance-aligned commanders are co-operating more and focusing on developing a small number of factions, while the Fed/Imp ones are generally more individualistic so the same number of commanders is spread over many more groups, none working together much, so few get particularly large. That would be hard to prove one way or the other.

 

[Schlack]

Well we do hope for some faction love in coming updates. But I'm not sure there is consensus amongst the player base on the form. I personally prefer the FD model of player groups supporting a faction rather than actually being one.

 

[TartanDragon]

Nice work.

Great to see that the Indy systems also increased a little and haven't been swamped by the Powers.

 

[DNA-Decay]

Nice work.

Great to see that the Indy systems also increased a little and haven't been swamped by the Powers.

I think actually that is a pretty common feeling.
Elite has this strong "Blaze your own trail" ethos. You are welcome to go and be part of things but really - its up to you.
You can be sufficiently Empire to have prismatics but also Fed enough to put them on your Corvette.

And mission types are the same whoever you barrack for.
So it's easy to view the powers as undifferentiated and opt to start afresh. Groups like the Mercs of Mikuun and The Winged Hussars really carved out a place for themselves. I imagine that's what a lot of Player Groups think they are going to do.
Opt out of the big politics and be their own thing.

It's not hard to be moderately successful. And as the groups mature they often find they have a position regarding the big powers. But there's so much lore and background to wrap your head around.

Being part of a big power means accepting whatever Frontier has your figureheads say and do.
I'm two years in to this game and I've only come to grips with Alliance lore this year.

Frontier doesn't want to have players dictate the story of the Powers to them.
But equally the players don't like Frontier doing things with the Powers that don't fit the uh "concensus player view of ethos".

Drew Wagar came around the Mahon Reddit one time canvassing opinion and story about what he was like and what the Alliance had achieved. This was ahead of Premonition and before the whole Salamé saga got going.
I just wish that Frontier had the resources to devote someone as a PowerPlay Producer.
To look at what the groups were doing and to connect that to story and CGs in a two way flow.
Someone with access to the back end so they can see how much effort a group puts in to a project.
To help bring story into the game so that like minded players can join up for what is going on.