I want my, I want my, I want my E.L.W..

Send me an in-game friend request, that way I can see where you are and I'll be more than glad to walk ya through a good search pattern to fit your local density, maybe even come hunt with ya for a bit if you're close enough!

I'm guessing you're not a PS4 explorer based on your experience. However, everyone's advice has been helpful, as I've since found lots of water worlds and my first ammonia world (looks like brown ELF), so I believe it will only be a matter of time before I find that first ELF. I'm moving back inward from the rim into the denser part of the Perseus Arm, so while not as dense as the core, it should improve my odds. I'll keep you posted!
 
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Take Heart. Lets look at some possibilities: (this is conjecture)
400 billion systems.
1 in every 400 systems would be 1 billion ELW's
But that may be top heavy. (some say we need to cut it in a big way)
So lets cut it.
Even if it was 1 in 4k systems we'd be at 1 million ELW's

I think there's 5 to 20 million ELW's.
 
I found one, I found one!!! Not only that, I've also claimed it, so it's official! The secret? Start a new thread about how you can't find one, then in about 24 hours time fate will make sure you do find one just so you look silly on the forums. That's okay, it was well worth it :D

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dayrth

Volunteer Moderator
The secret? Start a new thread about how you can't find one, then in about 24 hours time fate will make sure you do find one just so you look silly on the forums.
I shall have to try that. I've been looking for one for years. :D
 
I found one, I found one!!! Not only that, I've also claimed it, so it's official! The secret? Start a new thread about how you can't find one, then in about 24 hours time fate will make sure you do find one just so you look silly on the forums. That's okay, it was well worth it :D



Congratulations on your first one! May you find many more. :D
 
I found one, I found one!!! Not only that, I've also claimed it, so it's official! The secret? Start a new thread about how you can't find one, then in about 24 hours time fate will make sure you do find one just so you look silly on the forums. That's okay, it was well worth it :D

CONGRATZ! May you find many, many more!
 
I found one, I found one!!! Not only that, I've also claimed it, so it's official! The secret? Start a new thread about how you can't find one, then in about 24 hours time fate will make sure you do find one just so you look silly on the forums. That's okay, it was well worth it :D



Nice one! :)

My advice for others is just take a long passenger mission and if you only find one then you are unlucky. I just filter out the unscoopable ones. Just don't forget to look behind you when you are honking and jumping.
The odds are in the numbers. ;)

PS Your theory works too.
 
Now that you've found one, it's entirely possible you'll find more in the same area. Several times, I've found ELWs in "clumps" or "clusters". That's just the nature of randomness; it will randomly form clusters and groupings. The human mind grasps at these, seeking "patterns" to exploit- which is why there is still an ongoing debate about whether or not some regions of space are actually more likely to generate ELWs or not.

My own best experience: up in the Blau Aec Sector, I found five Untagged ELWs within eight jumps, plus one more nearby which was already Tagged. It was like boom, another, boom, wow another. I hung around Blau Aec for several days afterwards, thinking I might have found a "lucky sector". But no, didn't find any more that week. Just freaky statistical clustering I was the beneficiary of. But here's a map I made showing a few of my "clusters" on that leg of the trip.
pTWoSkr.jpg
 
Now that you've found one, it's entirely possible you'll find more in the same area. Several times, I've found ELWs in "clumps" or "clusters". That's just the nature of randomness; it will randomly form clusters and groupings. The human mind grasps at these, seeking "patterns" to exploit- which is why there is still an ongoing debate about whether or not some regions of space are actually more likely to generate ELWs or not.

My own best experience: up in the Blau Aec Sector, I found five Untagged ELWs within eight jumps, plus one more nearby which was already Tagged. It was like boom, another, boom, wow another. I hung around Blau Aec for several days afterwards, thinking I might have found a "lucky sector". But no, didn't find any more that week. Just freaky statistical clustering I was the beneficiary of. But here's a map I made showing a few of my "clusters" on that leg of the trip.

That's true, randomness is like that and so are peoples minds.
I got freaked out when I stumbled on the Neutron Highway. I hadn't been paying attention to the G-Map and maybe I wasn't completely sober. But that was no excuse for taking so long to wonder what was happening.
 
First off, congrats to OP on your find!

As for Sapyx's post: yep, that's probabilities for you. The thing is, we only have very rough approximations for what probabilities might be, with many factors not considered. Let's use Chiggy's example earlier, where he said he believes that restricting the search to A8-A9 and F0-F4 gives you around 1 ELW in 35 systems. That ignores that whether a system has multiple stars or it doesn't has a big influence on ELW chances (for obvious reasons), and other factors we can only speculate about so far, like the sector's location in the galaxy, distribution of elements in the system, and even more other things we don't know about, as we don't know how exactly the Stellar Forge works.

But let's suppose that it's true, and on a broader category (like A and F primaries), the hit rate would be 1 ELW in 50 systems. Mind you, probability differs from odds. In this particular scenario, we have 49 non-events and 1 event. From those odds, the probability would be a bit different from 2%, but we can just round it to that for a bit easier calculation. With that, you can play around to see what your chances are of finding more than one ELW in that same set. For example, 1 ELW in 50 systems with 2% probability per system: 37.16% of happening. 2 ELWs in 50 systems with 2% probability per system: 18.6% chance of happening. 3 ELWs in 50 systems, same probability: 6.1%. Or for your example, 5 ELWs in 8 systems with 2% probability per system: less than 0.0001% chance of happening. So you pretty much won big on the lottery there. (Especially if you consider that the probability of a hit there was likely smaller than 2%.) Congratulations!

Do bear in mind that as I said, those are rough approximations of odds and probabilities, so this is not for any sort of precise calculations, just a way to illustrate how probabilities change within a limited number of trials - so, a limited number of systems. For example, if you check a single small subsector only.
You can restrict your search patterns to various systems, but in the end, it all comes down to how many systems you've visited, how much time you've spent searching.


Edit: oh, and consider that EDSM has 28,116 ELWs in 15,337,605 systems. That includes terraformed Earth-likes in inhabited systems though, plus systems that were discovered before journals were added. Also, there's an assumption there that I forgot to clarify: we assume that a system either has an Earth-like planet or it doesn't. Multiple ELWs are not considered.
 
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dayrth

Volunteer Moderator
The secret? Start a new thread about how you can't find one, then in about 24 hours time fate will make sure you do find one just so you look silly on the forums.
I shall have to try that. I've been looking for one for years. :D
BLEEDIN' HECK! It does work......

Since I started this game (about three years ago now), I have wanted to find an undiscovered ELW. I don't explore all the time, but I have made several serious exploration trips. Never did find one though. I am at the moment taking a passenger out to the cats eye nebula. Last night (two days after posting the above) I found one :D

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Thanks Old Duck :)
 
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BLEEDIN' HECK! It does work......

Since I started this game (about three years ago now), I have wanted to find an undiscovered ELW. I don't explore all the time, but I have made several serious exploration trips. Never did find one though. I am at the moment taking a passenger out to the cats eye nebula. Last night (two days after posting the above) I found one :D



Thanks Old Duck :)

Out of curiosity which system near the Cat's Eye nebula has the tourist beacon? The Cat's Eye nebula has no system in it and the closest system is BD+66 1066, which is only reachable with Anacondas that have ~62+ Ly range.
 
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