DB Tweets 2.75M ED Units....

[Stachel]

Also few things to point out - financial year of 2017 ends on 31st May of 2018.

No it doesn't. The financial year in the Frontier projection that Jools quoted is explicitly stated as "Year ending 31 May 2017".

As for numbers FD own 'backers tracker' had 1,2M backers at launch.

No it didn't. Frontier discontinued the backers tracker six months before launch. And at launch Frontier announced a backers number once sixth of the number you claim.

What stores/ratings exactly are you talking about.

For Xbox, the Xbox store https://marketplace.xbox.com

For Playstation, the Playstation store https://store.playstation.com

For Steam, well, Steam http://store.steampowered.com/

The number of ratings/reviews can be seen on any store page. E.g. goto Xbox store and search Elite Dangerous Horizons and you'll see the number 101 below the title. That means 101 ratings. Read all the ratings inc. the Deluxe edition bundle, do the math and you'll get my figure of 8% for Horizons v. ED base game.

 

[babelfisch]

No it doesn't. The financial year in the Frontier projection that Jools quoted is explicitly stated as "Year ending 31 May 2017".



No it didn't. Frontier discontinued the backers tracker six months before launch. And at launch Frontier announced a backers number once sixth of the number you claim.



For Xbox, the Xbox store https://marketplace.xbox.com

For Playstation, the Playstation store https://store.playstation.com

For Steam, well, Steam http://store.steampowered.com/

The number of ratings/reviews can be seen on any store page. E.g. goto Xbox store and search Elite Dangerous Horizons and you'll see the number 101 below the title. That means 101 ratings. Read all the ratings inc. the Deluxe edition bundle, do the math and you'll get my figure of 8% for Horizons v. ED base game.

Your numbers still don't make any sense because they don't include the bundled version on steam and you are assuming that everyone who rated ED also rated Horizons. That's just speculation.

 

[Cmdr Eagleboy]

Stachel, simply not true

1) I said financial year of 2017 ends in 31st May 2018. I did not point out about anything it being related to scenario table. 2018 is not even there if you treat it like that;

2) FD discontinued counter, but people who knew link knew how to access it and followed numbers till they stopped being reported;

Anyway, there's good reason why you are on my ignore list. Have a nice day and obsess over something else

 

[Enderby]

Why are you arguing the toss about this crap?

 

[Rakaposhi]

Why are you arguing the toss about this crap?

 

[Stachel]

1) I said financial year of 2017 ends in 31st May 2018. I did not point out about anything it being related to scenario table.

Perhaps reread what you wrote? "So they would be very comfortably above base scenario." That base scenario goes to Year ending 2017. Not 2018.

FD discontinued counter, but people who knew link knew how to access it and followed numbers till they stopped being reported

Sorry, but that link to a backers number that is six times what Frontier declared is just a link to someone's imagination. If you dispute that, show a screenshot.

 

[FrogsFriend]

OMG it's all true! There are in fact only six people playing Elite out of the ten who bought a copy.

I'm sure this is all keeping at least one person entertained at least

 

[KING5TON]

Many PC players don't even use Steam

Source? as I don't believe that for one minute.
A small percentage of players don't use steam, I can agree to that.

 

[Phoenix_Dfire]

If you make the case that a 'Franchise Unit' is a sale of the base game or a horizons upgrade or both together in a pack, and not one of the cosmetic upgrades you can get from the store, then 2.75 million is well above the 2 million they were expecting from base but short from the 8 million from mid. Personally I feel that's a comfortable number which means there will be enough revenue to generate a season 3.0. As far as the player numbers are concerned, Steamspy reports over between 8000 and 9000 players on the game each day and over 1.1 million sales on steam (I don't know how may of the backers and people who purchased before the keys were available; converted over to steam). However, I get the feeling that most of that jump to 2.75 million have been PS4 sales and judging by reactions I've been seeing from PS4 players, they're very happy with it. I mean we can guess the player numbers as much as we like, I don't think frontier will ever release those numbers.

One of the things we've noticed at Lave Radio is that our radio listener/download numbers have increasing steadily over the last year, from between 15K and 20K a week this time last year up to between 20K and 25K a week this year. I know that's circumstantial but you wouldn't expect the listener numbers to go up if the game was 'dying'.

 

[BurnyBurns]

Congrats FDev.

Can anybody provide a clear definition of what a "franchise unit" is? I get that it's difficult to talk about sold "units", when a unit could be the game as kickstarter reward, regularily bought, its previously game-including season pass addon, now optional DLC, an optional beta access bought separately etc. etc..

What is a franchise unit then? How many individually registered Elite Dangerous accounts are out there?

 

[-VR- Max Factor]

A small percentage of players don't use steam, I can agree to that.

Source? as I don't believe that.

I don't use steam for ED.

 

[two quiet suns]

ED wasn't even available on Steam at the beginning no? I seem to remember at some point having to apply for a steam key from them which was a waste of time as I use the launcher, nevermind!

 

[-VR- Max Factor]

If you make the case that a 'Franchise Unit' is a sale of the base game or a horizons upgrade or both together in a pack, and not one of the cosmetic upgrades you can get from the store, then 2.75 million is well above the 2 million they were expecting from base but short from the 8 million from mid. Personally I feel that's a comfortable number which means there will be enough revenue to generate a season 3.0. As far as the player numbers are concerned, Steamspy reports over between 8000 and 9000 players on the game each day and over 1.1 million sales on steam (I don't know how may of the 1.7 million backers converted over to steam). However, I get the feeling that most of that jump to 2.75 million have been PS4 sales and judging by reactions I've been seeing from PS4 players, they're very happy with it. I mean we can guess the player numbers as much as we like, I don't think frontier will ever release those numbers.

One of the things we've noticed at Lave Radio is that our radio listener/download numbers have increasing steadily over the last year, from between 15K and 20K a week this time last year up to between 20K and 25K a week this year. I know that's circumstantial but you wouldn't expect the listener numbers to go up if the game was 'dying'.

There are no numbers for daily players on steamspy. There is the peak concurrent players in a day, but that doesn't tell you how many people have actually played that day. The best metric to use on steamspy is the players in the last 2 weeks which is around 75000 for a better idea of player numbers and that isn't perfect as it doesn't include non-steam players.

Congrats FDev.

Can anybody provide a clear definition of what a "franchise unit" is? I get that it's difficult to talk about sold "units", when a unit could be the game as kickstarter reward, regularily bought, its previously game-including season pass addon, now optional DLC, an optional beta access bought separately etc. etc..

What is a franchise unit then? How many individually registered Elite Dangerous accounts are out there?

A franchise unit is Elite Dangerous, Horizons, or the all in one ED and horizons together.

 

[Kaocraft]

Game has sold more than Super Meat Boy. Good to know.

 

[[VR] Mad Mike]

Source? as I don't believe that for one minute.
A small percentage of players don't use steam, I can agree to that.

i would say anyone who purchased on oculus store do not use steam... why would they, its just another thing to have open which does not add anything but uses resources. I got mine direct, from neither oculus OR steam.

I have no idea total number of sales NOT from steam... i can only comment of myself. I DONT play through steam so that is at least 1 person

Now... Lets say ED has sold....... 2 million copies... ie not counting ED and horizons as 2 sales.

I have no idea but to me, that sounds like a "decent" number... but the good news iirc is that, didnt FD base their base / mid and bull numbers on a unit sale price of £10 for the base game and £10 for each DLC?

infact FD have made a lot more money per unit sold that that, so i suspect that puts profits far closer to the mid level.

I dunno... who the hell knows exactly how well ED is doing.... I can but hope.... that said, it IS about time FD threw us a bone and gave us some more info on the future imo and where they are at with the next batch of content.. Horizons has dragged on for so long now and since launch i feel the actual features we have gotten have all been massively watered down from what was initially put on the table. I wont lie.. I AM starting to lose optimism on the future of the game... but things may well change once we finally get details on DLC #2

 

[Ralph Vargr]

I took Steam off my PC, so Steam Numbers Do Not Count!

Wild guess: everyone who was going to buy Elite, already has, except for Nintendo.

That does not equal the number that are still playing.

 

[Stachel]

If you make the case that a 'Franchise Unit' is a sale of the base game or a horizons upgrade or both together in a pack, and not one of the cosmetic upgrades

Anyone trying to make a case that a unit produced and sold under the franchise (whether cosmetic or not) is not a "franchise unit" is simply being dishonest.

Not to mention unconvincing. Would Frontier really have needlessly and inaccurately underreported the franchise unit quantity to shareholders by secretly excluding cosmetics?? Of course not.

Personally I feel that's a comfortable number which means there will be enough revenue to generate a season 3.0.

Frontier has already said there ain't going to be a season 3.0. Look at the fact that only a tiny proportion of ED buyers bought-in to season 2.0 and you'll understand why.

As far as the player numbers are concerned, Steamspy reports over between 8000 and 9000 players on the game each day

Fantasy. Steam stats show average players for the last six months has never exceeded 6000.

and over 1.1 million sales on steam

Fantasy. The 1.1m owners showing on Steam include many that bought off-Steam inc. from Frontier pre-Steam, as anyone can see from the fact they provided 25% of the reviews.

(I don't know how may of the 1.7 million backers converted over to steam).

Fantasy. ED got 25,681 backers on Kickstarter and even after Frontier inflated the Backers App number by dishonestly counting-in subsequent pre-orders, the number was nowhere near 1.7million.

I get the feeling that most of that jump to 2.75 million have been PS4 sales

Fantasy. PS4 sales have been terrible, as you'd expect from a game that shipped with a mountain of bugs, and an always online requirement that Frontier forgot to mention and hit players with server connect failures, and then scored 6/10 at Official PlayStation Magazine. At retail, below 5,000 copies in UK in week #1, dropping to hundreds by week #3/4. On downloads, the cheapest edition made only #20 in the PlayStation official Top 20 and the headline edition didn't register at all. Frontier have already cut the price by 30%.

One of the things we've noticed at Lave Radio is that our radio listener/download numbers have increasing steadily over the last year

So ED players are increasingly finding something else to do while waiting for Frontier to fix the game. No news there.

 

[Stachel]

but the good news iirc is that, didnt FD base their base / mid and bull numbers on a unit sale price of £10 for the base game

So they claimed... after having priced it at £20 on Kickstarter.

and £10 for each DLC?

They never mentioned DLC.

infact FD have made a lot more money per unit sold that that

No idea how you worked that out. For the biggest chunk of sales for which we have figures, FD earned only about £6.50 per copy after Steam 30% cut and taxes etc.

The proof of the pudding is in the eating and as you say, the Horizons pudding turned out to be at least half empty. That itself leaves Frontier now with much less in earnings to put into in the next ED pudding so a dramatic change of business model is needed. One likelihood is clear from all the effort Frontier is putting into microtransactions, and last month getting hitched to China's biggest microtransactions publisher.

 

[KING5TON]

i would say anyone who purchased on oculus store do not use steam... why would they, its just another thing to have open which does not add anything but uses resources. I got mine direct, from neither oculus OR steam.

I have no idea total number of sales NOT from steam... i can only comment of myself. I DONT play through steam so that is at least 1 person

Now... Lets say ED has sold....... 2 million copies... ie not counting ED and horizons as 2 sales.

OK It can be worked out like this
2 Million sales of base game as you say.

Steam tracks 1,137,997 sales of ED base game on steam.
I'm not sure if the Steam sales figure also covers the Steam Keys that FD gave out to backers or not. If not that figure could be significantly higher (I redeemed mine). I'm also not sure if FD offers steam keys to people that buy via the store or not, that might also affect the steam figures.

So that leaves 863,000 to cover Xbox, PS4 and PC sales outside Steam.
Unless Xbox and PS4 sales numbers are really really poor then the number of PC sales outside of Steam is a lot lower than sales on Steam.

I think it's better to look at figures we know and extrapolate rather than going "I don't use Steam so no one else does" (not saying you specifically are Mike)

 

[Luniticisi]

another person who has never used steam for ED here.