DB Tweets 2.75M ED Units....

[Cmdr Eagleboy]

Sure, but I believe there are other ways to get money than selling shares to a chinese company. Stachel made it sound like they are standing with their backs to the wall.

Ohhh sure, that was clearly strategic move from David's part. Also concentrating on nationality of company I think is a bit meh. It owns lot of good stuff.

Anyway, FD is not gonna away and ED is not gonna away any time soon. What future will hold we don't know. I will guess I will have to go to Frontier Expo to see it

 

[[VR] Mad Mike]

Meh, I leave it up to interpretation. White knights will predictably take the statement seriously and charge in shields and spears in hand. Some will maybe laugh at the concept of a cheap Chinese knock off of ED or the Chinese Government sifting through your data. Others will shake their head at FD cracking the door open to the Devil.

My last phone was a huawei so for me that ship sailed

 

[Jools]

Hmm I have just remembered something, which puts this number into a different perspective.

2.7M is still kinda good for a niche game but when you think about their previous estimates, well... they are just barely over their lowest scenario for 2017 (2M), which would imply things aren`t actually that good and might be one of the reasons for really slow pace of development

the mid scenario was 8 mill

the bull scenario was (lol what were they thinking!) 30 million copies. <- Just silly.... seriously FD??? a space sim? lol

The estimates were for a much much cheaper price though (before they figured out that instead of selling a quality game for 10 Pounds you could sell a beta for 120, then early access pseudo release for 60 and, then nickel and dime everything onwards - I blame the fanboys who essentially encouraged such behaviour) so the actual revenue might be a bit closer to the mid scenario but probably still far off

Those estimates also show that there was no 10 year plan EVER and coincide with early estimates of 6.5 year of total product life cycle (including KS period and development)

Years ending 31 May		2015​	2016​	2017​
Online game ‘base’ scenario	Units sold	0.25m​	1.0m​	2.0m​
	Revenue	£2.5m​	£10.0m​	£20.0m​
Online game ‘mid’ scenario	Units sold	0.50m​	2.0m​	8.0m​
	Revenue	£5.0m​	£20.0m​	£80.0m​
Online game ‘bull’ scenario	Units sold	0.75m​	4.0m​	30.0m​
	Revenue	£7.5m​	£40.0m​	£300.0m​

 

[Stachel]

You do know that DB still is the majority shareholder and this has been confirmed by FD, or maybe comprehension isn`t a strong point for you. Unless of course you can post some evidence otherwise.

The evidence Braben lost his majority was posted from the stock exchange to reddit right after Frontier put out the official denial.

Wrong, IIRC the last official number was 2.1 million.

That's for total ED franchise sales. The sales of ED franchise units include games (Elite Dangerous, Elite Dangerous Arena), Expansions (Horizons), Access passes (lifetime, beta), Game Extras (paint jobs, ship kits etc.), Merchandise (shirts, mugs etc.), Books (print and audio), and Event tickets.

The last official number for ED games shipped was early last year, 1.4million. Subtract the 300,000 copies given away free on Steam, leaves 1.1million sold.

Now the latest news from FD is "Elite has sold 2.75M copies of the game."

So, the first three years sold 1.1million, and the last 18months sold 1.65million. That's a 3x increase in rate of sales.

Pretty amazing, compared to what you see in Frontier's financials and all the industry data. ED fell out of the Steam Top 100 ages ago, and isn't in any in of the UK retail charts. ED PS4 did reach the retail charts, but fell out after two weeks having sold only a few thousand copies. The ED Xbox release at the same time sold only a few hundred copies in the UK. Figures for the largest territory - USA - show zero sales, so I presume Frontier decided not to bother trying to sell it there.

 

[[VR] Mad Mike]

Zero sales in the US? Surly that has to prove that those figures are wrong?

 

[Cmdr Eagleboy]

Zero sales in the US? Surly that has to prove that those figures are wrong?

XBO and PS4 has no official sales figures so companies sometimes count retail boxes but ED had none for long, long time.

But hey, let's not stand in a way of good "devs are lyin and game is dyin" track. Carry on

 

[ste]

This game isnt available in asia, isnt that why the chinese deal was done, to open up that market, I think alot of people in asia would love a bit ed.

 

[Cmdr Eagleboy]

This game isnt available in asia, isnt that why the chinese deal was done, to open up that market, I think alot of people in asia would love a bit ed.

I think more realistic goal is to sell huge amount of Planet Coaster there. But I know nothing about space game demand in Asia.

 

[Thetele]

David meant PC = Planet Coaster.



Elite has sold 2.75M copies of the game.

I have to think you are wrong. Before Horizon was released they always said x amount of copies sold, after horizon release they started saying ED franchise units so i would say 2.75 million copies wer one copy is base game, other copy is horizon and one is the commander deluxe edition. So everyone who bought base game and horizon is counted twice while customers with deluxe edition is counted once. If they meant 2.75 million copies of base game i.e players they would say that, not Franchise units. This is how companies release statistics, just like Microsoft only release the number of xbox live users, not console sales.

 

[XYZ]

Hmm I have just remembered something, which puts this number into a different perspective.

2.7M is still kinda good for a niche game but when you think about their previous estimates, well... they are just barely over their lowest scenario for 2017 (2M), which would imply things aren`t actually that good and might be one of the reasons for really slow pace of development

the mid scenario was 8 mill

the bull scenario was (lol what were they thinking!) 30 million copies. <- Just silly.... seriously FD??? a space sim? lol

The estimates were for a much much cheaper price though (before they figured out that instead of selling a quality game for 10 Pounds you could sell a beta for 120, then early access pseudo release for 60 and, then nickel and dime everything onwards - I blame the fanboys who essentially encouraged such behaviour) so the actual revenue might be a bit closer to the mid scenario but probably still far off

Those estimates also show that there was no 10 year plan EVER and coincide with early estimates of 6.5 year of total product life cycle (including KS period and development)

Years ending 31 May		2015​	2016​	2017​
Online game ‘base’ scenario	Units sold	0.25m​	1.0m​	2.0m​
	Revenue	£2.5m​	£10.0m​	£20.0m​
Online game ‘mid’ scenario	Units sold	0.50m​	2.0m​	8.0m​
	Revenue	£5.0m​	£20.0m​	£80.0m​
Online game ‘bull’ scenario	Units sold	0.75m​	4.0m​	30.0m​
	Revenue	£7.5m​	£40.0m​	£300.0m​

... and this is a kind of pure logical reasoning i like !

 

[Stachel]

Zero sales in the US?

Zero sales showing for the retail version in the US. Meaning sales were actually zero or as near to zero as to be unmeasurable.

Surly that has to prove that those figures are wrong?

How??

I can believe near-zero sales, having bought it myself.

The box doesn't actually contain any playable copy of the game. Before play you have to make a multi-GB download. Before which you have to give the developer your credit card details. Then you find the game demands always-on internet - not even mentioned on the box.

Then there was the defective networking.

Console gamers hate that stuff. They expect put-in-and-play and really Frontier should have known that.

 

[babelfisch]

The evidence Braben lost his majority was posted from the stock exchange to reddit right after Frontier put out the official denial.



That's for total ED franchise sales. The sales of ED franchise units include games (Elite Dangerous, Elite Dangerous Arena), Expansions (Horizons), Access passes (lifetime, beta), Game Extras (paint jobs, ship kits etc.), Merchandise (shirts, mugs etc.), Books (print and audio), and Event tickets.

The last official number for ED games shipped was early last year, 1.4million. Subtract the 300,000 copies given away free on Steam, leaves 1.1million sold.

Now the latest news from FD is "Elite has sold 2.75M copies of the game."

So, the first three years sold 1.1million, and the last 18months sold 1.65million. That's a 3x increase in rate of sales.

Pretty amazing, compared to what you see in Frontier's financials and all the industry data. ED fell out of the Steam Top 100 ages ago, and isn't in any in of the UK retail charts. ED PS4 did reach the retail charts, but fell out after two weeks having sold only a few thousand copies. The ED Xbox release at the same time sold only a few hundred copies in the UK. Figures for the largest territory - USA - show zero sales, so I presume Frontier decided not to bother trying to sell it there.

You are definetely wrong, the base game alone was sold over 1.000.000 times on steam, not including Frontier Store, Xbox and PS4. You just don't have any idea what you are talking about. Also, according to Obsidian Ant (who is way more believable than you are) Elite Dangerous franchise units do not include paintjobs and stuff.

You are right though that David Braben no longer holds the majority, it's 45,6%.

 

[Stachel]

You are definetely wrong

Which figure is wrong?

the base game alone was sold over 1.000.000 times on steam, not including Frontier Store

You are definitely wrong. The 1,000,000 you see on Steam includes every Frontier store purchase that players registered on Steam when Frontier eventually released the keys.

Obsidian Ant (who is way more believable than you are) Elite Dangerous franchise units do not include paintjobs and stuff.

OA didn't say that. All he said was Zac told him the 2.75M figure in DB's tweet does not include paintjobs and stuff. Big difference.

No-one in their right mind would believe Frontier's ED total franchise units sales figures given to shareholders were artificially lowered by secretly excluding paint jobs and books etc. That would be bad for business and in fact illegal under stockmarket rules for accurate reporting.

 

[babelfisch]

Which figure is wrong?



You are definitely wrong. The 1,000,000 you see on Steam includes every Frontier store purchase that players registered on Steam when Frontier eventually released the keys.



OA didn't say that. All he said was Zac told him the 2.75M figure in DB's tweet does not include paintjobs and stuff. Big difference.

No-one in their right mind would believe Frontier's ED total franchise units sales figures given to shareholders were artificially lowered by secretly excluding paint jobs and books etc. That would be bad for business and in fact illegal under stockmarket rules for accurate reporting.

I have no idea what you are trying to say, sorry.

 

[Stachel]

I think its a fair assumption
From about 15 people that bought ED on/pre-launch only one (not me but my Brother) owns Horizons
The rest Decided to wait a year and see how it goes. Needless to say they don`t play any more.

Computed from the respective number of ratings/reviews on the stores, %age of ED owners that bought Horizons:

PC/Mac Steam - 8%
Xbox - 7%
PS4 - 41%

Re the high PS4, PS4 was the only platform where launch had physical media giving no non-Horizons option. And the only platform where physical media was a large proportion of sales. And incidentally, is the platform that has sold fewest copies - by a very large margin.

 

[Kathryn Kando]

We are doomed. DOOOOOMED. Nobody ever bought the game, all hollow squares are lie, this forum is full of bots, the game is a dead parrot!

Now back to playing the game that has made me spent so much time than no game ever before (quick before someone is shutting down the servers).

 

[Cmdr Eagleboy]

I wonder what's end game here trying to prove FD is failing.

They aren't, they have two well received, very popular games (without tapping too much into mainstream media and PR green, for example, ED isn't even touched upon in regular YouTube shows). Are they financially interested to push ED forward is good question, but I would say yes, considering PlayStation 4 port and it's convincing sales (but not only).

Everything else is minutiae.

As for numbers FD own 'backers tracker' had 1,2M backers at launch. So total player number are way beyond 1M and most likely 2M. Steam does not include Frontier Store numbers, because possibility to claim Steam keys does not mean everybody did that (in fact, many opted out not to do so, including me).

Anyway, off we go. This is getting a bit boring

 

[zimms]

Computed from the respective number of ratings/reviews on the stores, %age of ED owners that bought Horizons:

PC/Mac Steam - 8%
Xbox - 7%
PS4 - 41%

Re the high PS4, PS4 was the only platform where launch had physical media giving no non-Horizons option. And the only platform where physical media was a large proportion of sales. And incidentally, is the platform that has sold fewest copies - by a very large margin.

That alone should tell you that these numbers are completely worthless. Many PC players don't even use Steam, and those players are also the ones most likely to have bought Horizons, I assume.

What stores/ratings exactly are you talking about. You should at least give us some kind of source, if you want any credibility.

 

[babelfisch]

Hmm I have just remembered something, which puts this number into a different perspective.

2.7M is still kinda good for a niche game but when you think about their previous estimates, well... they are just barely over their lowest scenario for 2017 (2M), which would imply things aren`t actually that good and might be one of the reasons for really slow pace of development

the mid scenario was 8 mill

the bull scenario was (lol what were they thinking!) 30 million copies. <- Just silly.... seriously FD??? a space sim? lol

The estimates were for a much much cheaper price though (before they figured out that instead of selling a quality game for 10 Pounds you could sell a beta for 120, then early access pseudo release for 60 and, then nickel and dime everything onwards - I blame the fanboys who essentially encouraged such behaviour) so the actual revenue might be a bit closer to the mid scenario but probably still far off

Those estimates also show that there was no 10 year plan EVER and coincide with early estimates of 6.5 year of total product life cycle (including KS period and development)

Years ending 31 May		2015​	2016​	2017​
Online game ‘base’ scenario	Units sold	0.25m​	1.0m​	2.0m​
	Revenue	£2.5m​	£10.0m​	£20.0m​
Online game ‘mid’ scenario	Units sold	0.50m​	2.0m​	8.0m​
	Revenue	£5.0m​	£20.0m​	£80.0m​
Online game ‘bull’ scenario	Units sold	0.75m​	4.0m​	30.0m​
	Revenue	£7.5m​	£40.0m​	£300.0m​

Just wanted to point out that these scenarios were made with a way lower price in mind. They originally planned to sell the game for ~15-25€.

 

[Cmdr Eagleboy]

Just wanted to point out that these scenarios were made with a way lower price in mind. They originally planned to sell the game for ~15-25€.

Also few things to point out - financial year of 2017 ends on 31st May of 2018. They will get 3M sales at that point most likely. So they would be very comfortably above base scenario.

I also suspect both XBO and PS4 ports took longer as planned, and seasons idea didn't pan out way they planned to. Both affected units sold in the end.