EXPO 17 and my view on future Elite's roadmap

[RhymeRhyme]

Hi folks,

I watched the show yesterday. I want to make some predictions for the future. This is my very personal point of view and it's not more than speculating but I think it's going to come like this ...

1st of all my highlight was GALNET AUDIO. That totally makes sense! You can now follow the ASCII desert storyline while flying and it helps you to brigde the boring jump routines to get somewhere with something interesting to follow. Good idea and finally they saw that the story must be more integrated in the game.

Elite's Future (my view)
I don't think we should expect major things in the upcoming seasons or years. With 2018 covered, the game will be 4 years old by the end of 2018 and the roadmap got layed out yesterday.
The player base is constantly shrinking. This is a very normal thing that happens to all games that are on the market for years. Star Citizen will be out 2018/2019 which will shrink the player base dramatically as well.
Atmospheric landings and space legs are a huge time and financial investment for FDev. With a constantly shrinking playerbase within the next couple of years, the question for FDev will be, go for that investment or not. More important question that comes along with that... Why? What sense does it make to run around in my ship or on a planet if there is not great gameplay that comes along with it. The same goes for atmospheric landings. Great gameplay would mean an even more time and financial investment for the future. With Star Citizen on the horizon that does that far better already by then, I don't think that FDev will go for any bigger investments in the future (after 2018) as it makes no sense from a strategic and financial point of view.

Shortcut answer: Seen it from a very realistic point of view: I think we've seen Elite : Dangerous' peak by the end of 2018. From there on with Q4 update getting release, the game will dry out slowly within the next 2 to 3 years (it turns 8 years then, almost 10 reached!!)

What will we never get (my opinion): Atmospheric planets with big populated cities and lifeforms, Spacelegs with corresponding, awesome gameplay. We might get spacelegs and atmosphere after 2018, but not with gameplay that would make sense like missions on planets fighting against NPCs in stations or whatever.

Just think about it: With the given roadmap until the end of 2018, the game will go into year 5 then - Star Citizen released (which makes space legs, atmospheres, crowded cities, great corresponding missions etc. way better) - would you invest a huge amount of money and time for a game that's player base is constantly (due to age and by 2018/2019 dramatically by Star Citizen) shrinking? I would not. Especially not if I had a new franchise with a huge potantial revenue stream (Jurassic Whatever).

Now some might ask or say ... No, with new updates, the player base will not shrink. That it not correct. The day and year one player base is shrinking constantly (biggest sales happen at release and following months / year). You play for 3 years and then you get bored after a while. With SC on the horizon, many of these people will jump on that train. SC is new, it's awesome, it's the same genre they love etc. The new updates are not that awesome that players who did not get the game by then will be overwhelmed so much that they think ... wow. I do it now. There will be new players but the shrinking process (and now after PS4 boost has happened as well) will go on. This is a normal process for every game being on the market for years (with some exceptions like DOTA 2, WOW or other mega blockbusters - these games play in a total different league). I (personally) will go for SC when it comes out and I can hardly think of anything by then (after 4 years of Elite and a looooooot of time investment and getting bored after all these hours) that will drive me back to the game. That also happens with other games I played. I think it's a pretty natural and normal game cycle.

I like Elite, it's a great game, it has some flaws (some major flaws IMHO), the gfx are great and I hope the best for the game. The new guild system and player owned content (Finally!) is a fantastic idea. IMHO, way too late but at least it will push the game into a direction that can make it more interesting. Especially compared to the very repetitive gameplay we got so far.

My 5 million cents ... ;-)

RhymeRhyme

 

[-VR- Max Factor]

Hi folks,

I watched the show yesterday. I want to make some predictions for the future. This is my very personal point of view and it's not more than speculating but I think it's going to come like this ...

1st of all my highlight was GALNET AUDIO. That totally makes sense! You can now follow the ASCII desert storyline while flying and it helps you to brigde the boring jump routines to get somewhere with something interesting to follow. Good idea and finally they saw that the story must be more integrated in the game.

Elite Future (my view)
I don't think we should expect major things in the upcoming seasons or years. With 2018 covered, the game will be 4 years old by the end of 2018 and the roadmap got layed out yesterday.
The player base is constantly shrinking. This is a very normal thing that happens to all games that are on the market for years. Star Citizen will be out 2018/2019 which will shrink the player base dramatically as well.
Atmospheric landings and space legs are a huge time and financial investment for FDev. With a constantly shrinking playerbase within the next couple of years, the question for FDev will be, go for that investment or not. More important question that comes along with that... Why? What sense does it make to run around in my ship or on a planet if there is not great gameplay that comes along with it. The same goes for atmospheric landings. Great gameplay would mean an even more time and financial investment for the future. With Star Citizen on the horizon that does that far better already by then, I don't think that FDev will go for any bigger investments in the future (after 2018) as it makes no sense from a strategic and financial point of view.

Shortcut answer: Seen it from a very realistic point of view: I think we've seen Elite : Dangerous' peak by the end of 2018. From there on with Q4 update getting release, the game will dry out slowly within the next 2 to 3 years (it turns 8 years then, almost 10 reached!!)

What will we never get (my opinion): Atmospheric planets with big populated cities and lifeforms, Spacelegs with corresponding, awesome gameplay. We might get spacelegs and atmosphere after 2018, but not with gameplay that would make sense like missions on planets fighting against NPCs in stations or whatever.

Just think about it: With the given roadmap until the end of 2018, the game will go into year 5 then - Star Citizen released (which makes space legs, atmospheres, crowded cities, great corresponding missions etc. way better) - would you invest a huge amount of money and time for a game that's player base is constantly (due to age and by 2018/2019 dramatically by Star Citizen) shrinking? I would not. Especially not if I had a new franchise with a huge potantial revenue stream (Jurassic Whatever).

Now some might ask or say ... No, with new updates, the player base will not shrink. That it not correct. The day and year one player base is shrinking constantly (biggest sales happen at release and following moths / year). You play for 3 years and then you get bored after a while. With SC on the horizon, these people will jump on that train. SC is new, it's awesome, it's the same genre they love etc. The new updates are not that awesome that players who did not get the game by then will be overwhelmed so much that they think ... wow. I do it now. There will be new players but the shrinking process (and now after PS4 boost has happened as well) will go on. This is a normal process for every game being on the market for years (with some exceptions like DOTA 2, WOW or other mega blockbusters - these games play in a total different league). I (personally) will go for SC when it comes out and I can hardly think of anything by then (after 4 years of Elite and a looooooot of time investment and getting bored after all these hours) that will drive me back to the game. That also happens with other games I played. I think it's a pretty natural and normal game cycle.

My 5 million cents ... ;-)

RhymeRhyme

Nah. Player base is not shrinking. Star Citizen I can't see coming out for another three years or So, and then there is no guarantee that it will be any good.

I see more paid for expansions for next year Xmas time coming with more planets to land on.

 

[Zebaoth]

Star Citizen will be out 2018/2019

 

[Ambroza]

Star Citizen most definitely will not be out in 2018, that's just absurd. 2019 is a very slim possibility, and I wouldn't bet on it. A more realistic estimate would be 2021 or so.

Anyway, can you cite some sources for the claim that the playerbase is ever shrinking?

 

[krylite]

I'd doubt the impact from a future SC release will impact ED for long. From the news of it a MVP (minimal viable product) will be released as "early access" with new stipulations to prevent future refunds. It may gain some interest for a month or so after release then fizz out quick as a buggy train wreck similar to ME:Andromeda or severely dampered expectations similar to NMS.

From the expo videos, I believe the FDev crew remain dedicated to ED and "big game hunting " and spacelegs + atmospherics will ensue. The interior design of the stations and interiors of the ship bridges and early conceptual drawings of walking about point to a future with spacelegs. The framework was also expanded with multi-crew. They probably already have test builds where there is rough walking and standing around the bridge already. The ED player base will resurge and be better than ever!

 

[Faybs]

Nah. Player base is not shrinking. Star Citizen I can't see coming out for another three years or So, and then there is no guarantee that it will be any good.

I see more paid for expansions for next year Xmas time coming with more planets to land on.

I disagree that Elite will peak in 2018, but I do agree we'll probably never see spacelegs. It's a huge thing to add to the game, both in terms of dev work and art assets - think of how many hundreds of meters worth of hallways are in even the medium ships - the large ships are the size of fairly big FPS maps. Think of the volume of an anaconda or a cutter, and try and come up with a map that doesn't look like "a maze of twisty passages, all alike". And then you have all stations and outposts. They need to be modeled in good detail to compete with other games in 2019/2020 and have to have a good layout for FPS combat, since boarding is going to be one of the obvious things that one does on foot. By the time that's all done there will be other games besides star citizen to worry about, and those will have been designed with FPS in mind rather than it being added on after release.

 

[Chris Simon]

Tbh spacelegs are not only an immensely difficult feature, but also unnecessary. Interesting gameplay or not, I play Elite to pilot spaceships. I always have.

Planets with atmosphere will come, I believe. Planets with LIFE, however, I very much doubt so. Not that we really need any of it.

 

[-VR- Max Factor]

I disagree that Elite will peak in 2018, but I do agree we'll probably never see spacelegs. It's a huge thing to add to the game, both in terms of dev work and art assets - think of how many hundreds of meters worth of hallways are in even the medium ships - the large ships are the size of fairly big FPS maps. Think of the volume of an anaconda or a cutter, and try and come up with a map that doesn't look like "a maze of twisty passages, all alike". And then you have all stations and outposts. They need to be modeled in good detail to compete with other games in 2019/2020 and have to have a good layout for FPS combat, since boarding is going to be one of the obvious things that one does on foot. By the time that's all done there will be other games besides star citizen to worry about, and those will have been designed with FPS in mind rather than it being added on after release.

I don't know about space legs and really not bothered about the shooter part. More interested in what it can do with enhancing my experience. It may come, it may not. I don't mind as long as the game keeps getting better.

 

[milligna]

This almost made me spew beverage all over the monitor.

Man, how many hundreds of prophets of doom have we been through thus far?

 

[Cmdr Eagleboy]

So you padded your answer just because you wanted to say wait is over, SC will be good again any minute now, and ED can stuff it right?

Good thing neither FD or us agree, but hey, opinions.

I don't know about space legs and really not bothered about the shooter part. More interested in what it can do with enhancing my experience. It may come, it may not. I don't mind as long as the game keeps getting better.

This. I think some people still expect ED it be designed be like sort of some fooling around GTA style game. If there will be space legs in ED, they will actually matter.

 

[Faybs]

I don't know about space legs and really not bothered about the shooter part. More interested in what it can do with enhancing my experience. It may come, it may not. I don't mind as long as the game keeps getting better.

Think about Elite's game mechanics for the SRV, and extend them to doing them on foot: that means collecting materials and combat (you're not going to lug even one cargo container on foot, so scavenging is out). There would probably be a handheld resource collecting gadget for mats, and then there's FPS combat with the usual assortment of guns and grenades.

 

[Faybs]

So you padded your answer just because you wanted to say wait is over, SC will be good again any minute now, and ED can stuff it right?

Good thing neither FD or us agree, but hey, opinions.



This. I think some people still expect ED it be designed be like sort of some fooling around GTA style game. If there will be space legs in ED, they will actually matter.

I think that's the biggest reason why they're still out in the far future: they haven't come up with a good set of things that we'd be able to do on foot, that would be fun to do. I think even one of the designers mentioned this on a livestream not too long ago. Can't say I blame them - look at NMS, the on-foot part is mostly about combat and shooting at inanimate objects to collect resources, and it gets old really fast.

 

[Patrick_68000]

1st of all my highlight was GALNET AUDIO.

In several languages ?

 

[CmdrKull]

I’m sorry but this is all just a load of bunkum. We know that atmo planets are coming, and cities aren’t some impossible dream, these guys are awesome, they have an awesome engine that proving incredibly capable. We’ve got Sandro, who is as awesome and committed designer as a community could hope for. You talk about shrinking player numbers without mentioning the brand-new PS4 platform... you know it’s not ENTIRELY pc players buying a second account, right?

Final words on the subject: I don’t understand the reasoning behind criticizing Frontier for not announcing Atmo or space legs. We asked, nay BEGGED, for core gameplay fixes, and they’ve delivered! Free updates with core gameplay fixes that is going to make this game so much better, when they could have gone the route of another paid expansion with a headliner feature such as spacelegs that would guarantee sales but also guarantee resentment over neglected gameplay. They CHOSE to look after the long-run of the game rather than make a cash grab. To see that and decide it means there’s no life left in the game.... I can only say I disagree strongly.

 

[Dakron Nova]

Not sure I agree OP.

To be fair there were some things that didn't float my boat in relation to the 2018 schedule. I think investing so much in "Space Guilds" is a mistake, my feeling in game and on the forums is most prefer to Solo even when in online mode. So I think the risk is that an awful lot of expenditure is going into the main feature that will be wasted. This probably has more potential to damage the user base more than SC, as this time could have been spent on something that most players would rather have.

In relation SC, I was actually looking forwards to playing this myself. But until it is actually out I remain doubtful it will ever release. Its taking so long to develop by the time it does come out is it really going to be any more of a long term draw than ED, sure the initial differences will have that initial impact, just like any new game but Im unsure of the long lasting appeal. It will be interesting to see just how much of a gap there is between the two games when/if it does launch....I suspect it may well be minimal by that time both will have strong and weak points in comparison to each other that may well even out.

The strength that ED currently has over SC is that it is out now and importantly multi-platform.

Apart from Space Guilds the roadmap looks relatively strong and appears to promise extra depth to current game activity as well as adding some needed dynamism to the gameplay. So Im cautiously optimistic the work being put into planets and exploration is particularly of interest.


-----edit

Just to add Im not convinced that we will see space legs or atmo planets either. However, FD have pulled big surprises before and there is nothing to say that "secret work" hasnt already begun some time ago on these and that they may well end up in the 2019 release schedule.

 

[spriggan72]

[h=2]my view on future Elite's roadmap.... errr wich road map????[/h]biggest feature for the next 1yr of developement is galnet audio... do we need it to avoid beind distracted while driving?

 

[-VR- Max Factor]

Think about Elite's game mechanics for the SRV, and extend them to doing them on foot: that means collecting materials and combat (you're not going to lug even one cargo container on foot, so scavenging is out). There would probably be a handheld resource collecting gadget for mats, and then there's FPS combat with the usual assortment of guns and grenades.

Well, I can see a huge amount that can be added with First Person Perspective game play.

And no I am not interested in lugging cargo on and off my ship. But I can't see why I can't scavenge for data or materials on foot in abandoned bases, derelict ships, abandoned generation ships.

Exploring caves and areas that the SRV can't get too when atmospheric planets come.

Exploring the insides of ruined alien bases/settlements such as the guardian ruins for more clues to further your own narrative that will be coming next year.

EVA over to the ruined anaconda to scavenge for stuff, or to get information for a mission.

EVA around your ship to do repairs, do repairs inside your ship (we would have to rework the repair limpets and AMFU).

And also a shooter part, helping you faction in wars and so on.

Also they could tie into missions rather nicely. There is loads it could add. Yeah I am sure there will be guns, but from looking at the art style FDev are going for, it will be nothing like star citizen which looks like a generic shooter added on to a space game. I very much doubt we will be running around stations with plasma repeaters on our backs, apart from the anarchy systems.

This is a lot of work, but I can see it coming over a number of years instead of one huge update. Like we will be getting different planets over different updates. I wouldn't be surprised if they already had a few people working on interiors and stuff like that already.

 

[-VR- Max Factor]

Not sure I agree OP.

To be fair there were some things that didn't float my boat in relation to the 2018 schedule. I think investing so much in "Space Guilds" is a mistake, my feeling in game and on the forums is most prefer to Solo even when in online mode. So I think the risk is that an awful lot of expenditure is going into the main feature that will be wasted. This probably has more potential to damage the user base more than SC, as this time could have been spent on something that most players would rather have.

In relation SC, I was actually looking forwards to playing this myself. But until it is actually out I remain doubtful it will ever release. Its taking so long to develop by the time it does come out is it really going to be any more of a long term draw than ED, sure the initial differences will have that initial impact, just like any new game but Im unsure of the long lasting appeal. It will be interesting to see just how much of a gap there is between the two games when/if it does launch....I suspect it may well be minimal by that time both will have strong and weak points in comparison to each other that may well even out.

The strength that ED currently has over SC is that it is out now and importantly multi-platform.

Apart from Space Guilds the roadmap looks relatively strong and appears to promise extra depth to current game activity as well as adding some needed dynamism to the gameplay. So Im cautiously optimistic the work being put into planets and exploration is particularly of interest.

I can see space guilds as only increasing the user base. There could be a lot of people coming over from EVE for something like that. More people playing, the more likely the game will survive. I am not a big fan of guilds, but the way they have done this means it will unlikely effect anyone who isn't apart of any guild. It's a great compromise.

 

[-VR- Max Factor]

I’m sorry but this is all just a load of bunkum. We know that atmo planets are coming, and cities aren’t some impossible dream, these guys are awesome, they have an awesome engine that proving incredibly capable. We’ve got Sandro, who is as awesome and committed designer as a community could hope for. You talk about shrinking player numbers without mentioning the brand-new PS4 platform... you know it’s not ENTIRELY pc players buying a second account, right?

Final words on the subject: I don’t understand the reasoning behind criticizing Frontier for not announcing Atmo or space legs. We asked, nay BEGGED, for core gameplay fixes, and they’ve delivered! Free updates with core gameplay fixes that is going to make this game so much better, when they could have gone the route of another paid expansion with a headliner feature such as spacelegs that would guarantee sales but also guarantee resentment over neglected gameplay. They CHOSE to look after the long-run of the game rather than make a cash grab. To see that and decide it means there’s no life left in the game.... I can only say I disagree strongly.

Agreed. I just cant understand some peoples reasoning.

 

[Marc_Hicks]

LOL....assuming that Star Citizen ever gets a real Retail Release, it's technology will be so out of date that the casual player will just point & laugh.

Personally, I suspect SC will ultimately go the route of No Man's Sky.