A game theory analysis of the Aisling Duval kidnapping situation

I put together a game theory analysis of the current Aisling Duval kidnapping situation, illustrated in the following matrix:

ax63jGx.png


It seems to me that the only WIN/WIN scenario we have is the one where I am nominated as the new leader of the Pilot's Federation, and not resisted. In all other cases, someone loses. Given that win-win situations are normally the most desireable, is it not correct that complying with the Overlord's demands is the optimal choice?
 
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The Princess dying may be seen as a "win" to some.

Z...

But to be practical, we shouldn't include outlier iconoclastic positions in a general analysis like this. Healthy minded people of good character would never want an innocent princess to be senslessly slaughtered. We have to assume that people in their right mind wouldn't want the princess harmed. So that really just takes us back to absolute obedience to the Overlord, doesn't it?
 
I wouldn't even call it an outlier position.

If we were talking about any old generic princess, you'd be correct. This one? Meh. Probably a close vote. The lore surrounding her does not paint a picture of someone worth saving.

Edit: also the possibility of such a radical shakeup in the political landscape is beyond appealing. The change vote, as it were.
 
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I wouldn't call it even an outlier position.

If we were talking about any old generic princess, you'd be correct. This one? Meh. Probably a close vote.

To be clear, you are saying that if a person has a sincere desire to see a young, female anti-slavery reformer violently killed, that this is a statistically "normal" perspective, and that we should treat that mindset as being equally valid to any other?
 
To be clear, you are saying that if a person has a sincere desire to see a young, female anti-slavery reformer violently killed, that this is a statistically "normal" perspective, and that we should treat that mindset as being equally valid to any other?

I would say that as a ratio, the combination of the two subsets "actively wish her harm" and "indifferent to her welfare" regarding this particular individual form too large a component to ignore outright, yes.

You didn't pick up just a young female anti-slavery reformer. You picked up Aisling. Pretender to the throne, demagogue, betrayer of a widely beloved character, Imperial.


(You'll forgive my unfamiliarity with statistical nomenclature)
 
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I'd prefer the Win/Win scenario, since the Princess needs some guidance anyway and my Overlord has all the skills to teach her properly. Plus the overlord would get the girl. :p
 
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I put together a game theory analysis of the current Aisling Duval kidnapping situation, illustrated in the following matrix:

https://i.imgur.com/ax63jGx.png

It seems to me that the only WIN/WIN scenario we have is the one where I am nominated as the new leader of the Pilot's Federation, and not resisted. In all other cases, someone loses. Given that win-win situations are normally the most desireable, is it not correct that complying with the Overlord's demands is the optimal choice?

Given all the smart people we have in this community, I'm interested to learn your opinions...

Solid logic, cant argue against it. All hail Zarek Null!
 
Firstly I really like the idea of advertising yourself as a target ripe for pirating with a 'valuable' cargo.

However as with all the best '80's TV serials the story needs to have everything back to normal by the end of the episode (barring romantic tension plot-arcs) so I reckon it'd be impossible for the OP to take the position demanded, plus it'll also be impossible for the (non-red shirt) prisoner to die.

Unless it's an end of season cliffhanger, and of course it is the end of season 2 ;)

So all bets are off, anything could seem to happen in a dramatic plot twist, but in the opening scenes of season 3 the inevitable usurping of the OP's new command and improbable yet tenuously plausible survival of the prisoner will be revealed to be a dream sequence, possibly involving nanites because sci-fi.
 
However as with all the best '80's TV serials the story needs to have everything back to normal by the end of the episode (barring romantic tension plot-arcs) so I reckon it'd be impossible for the OP to take the position demanded, plus it'll also be impossible for the (non-red shirt) prisoner to die.

The Princess *can* die; she is mortal just like everyone else. Now naturally, if that *does* happen, the Empire is going to do everything they can to deny it, since admitting the truth would amount to conceding that I had more power than they. I have no doubt that they will try to find a way to deceive the masses into believing that it never happened.
 
The Princess *can* die; she is mortal just like everyone else. Now naturally, if that *does* happen, the Empire is going to do everything they can to deny it, since admitting the truth would amount to conceding that I had more power than they. I have no doubt that they will try to find a way to deceive the masses into believing that it never happened.

Myyyeah maybe, but the Empire is to some extent the Emperor, and Aisling a pretender to the throne. History would suggest they won't put forth their best effort exactly.
So many variables.
 
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To be clear, you are saying that if a person has a sincere desire to see a young, female anti-slavery reformer violently killed, that this is a statistically "normal" perspective, and that we should treat that mindset as being equally valid to any other?

The problem here is that you don't understand the nature of the Empire at all.

It is build entirely on the concept of Slavery. There is no middle class. You ether do hard backbreaking work under contract to pay off debts or you're riding the high live enjoying those luxuries that may put you into debt. The Empire wages war with genetically modified slave army soldiers. It is highly resistant to change as it took over a millennia to even reverse the original decision that the position of Emperor could be passed down to sons only.

Aisling stands against everything that is the Empire. Her position is not popular.

Not to mention this is the Empire we're talking about. Where a minor group successfully assassinated the previous Emperor for being too "progressive" in reformation in an attempt to remind the Empire of what it is. While he was a reformer, he was still the Emperor and this outrage led to the Empire, playerbase and all, to come down in a fury that hell hath no.

His successor, Arissa, was put into power by the senate because her views align with what the rich and powerful believe the Empire is. (Not to mention it keeps them rich and powerful.)

If people are willing to assassinate the Emperor for allowing Arissa to take the throne because of her gender, what makes you think they're willing to allow someone with even more radical reforms to continue living? Very few are wiling to openly do away with her but when an opportunity like this arises... don't hesitate to think for a second they wouldn't take it.

The Federation is not going to care because the Feds and the Empire have been enemies/rivals since the dawn of of the Empire. They might even send in Black Ops and have her die tragically in the crossfire.

Basically, you couldn't have picked a worse target for demanding ransom. The one with the smallest support base in her own domain where the overwhelming majority would love to see her offed and the rest of the galaxy will shrug it's shoulders or see an opening.

So yes. This viewpoint is entirely 'normal' given the way the Empire operates. Anything that shakes up the Empire in such a radical way like a highly profiled individual meeting a tragic end is a desired outcome.

Now if you'd gone after ALD or Patrius....

Honestly you need to consider the allegiances of your audience. As a Federation Admiral, your "Lose/Lose" situation is actually a "Win/Win" for me. It means you don't have enough of a following to be a credible threat to my operations AND it removes a high profile target of an enemy faction.

Hell, even your "Win/Lose" is a "Win/Win" for me. People will be too focused on you that I can quietly build up a force without notice to counter you AND just sit back and watch as the Empire takes a hit.

In the Inverse. Your "Win/Win" is actually a "Lose/Lose" for me because now it means you're a threat I have to contend with alongside everything else and the Princess remains a thorn in the side of the Federation. So I should seek to actively prevent that scenario.

After all, you did say that a "Win/Win" is the best outcome and the best outcome is that both you and the Princess die tragic horrible deaths.
 
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