Very very hard to tell.
The C&P System was aimed at it - but it starts with a huge dud. And Billions in free gifts for all Criminals due to the Universal Amnesty. No gifts for clean guys of course.
That's a huge, big, fat red warning light. Criminals : 1 ... Clean guys : 0. Sounds familiar?
Since trust is what needs to be built from scratch here, that initial move alone IMHO killed it single-handedly and is off to a very bad start.
So if I was to wager a bet - it won't do anything.
a) it's way too late
b) what's being done is way too little and too careful to move from all the way of the back of the power curve into a positive region
Game had 3 years of FFA Gankfest Anarchy. Everything goes, everywhere, everytime. No Limits.
Now it would need and deserve 3 years of reliable and durable "Criminals will simply die if they dare set foot into a Medium/High Security System". Just to make up for the 1st 3 years and build that trust in the System.
And that's not happening.
PS.
The whole System (Notoriety) alone says it all.
Kill 1 Clean Ship every 2 hours and you'll remain at Level 0/1. Indefinitely.
Think about that metric and the logic behind it. The Pilots Federation (and Frontier) apparently thinks a Murder every 2 hours is a perfectly normal and "Level 0 compilant" way to fly your Ship.
There's your giant loophole of the whole System, in plain sight.
Make that 2 Days and we're starting to talk actual consequences.
Loophole #2 : Galaxy's Most Wanted? Just fly a clean Ship and you'll be cool. The Ships did all the crimes, not the CMDR of course. Never would *lol*
Ridiculous basically. Everything must stick and the hounddogs and hunter killers chase Criminals to the next Galaxy if they must. Otherwise it's nonsense iMHO.
As usual, free gift cards for the Criminals. If they have any brains, the new System will have similar consequences like the old (fake) one : N/A. None. Irrelevant.