Civil War Didn't End

Johnny Cyclops

Johnny Cyclops
I'm watching a CW in a neighbouring system and was expecting the CW to end and clear on today's tick (day 5) but it's still active. The Inf spread after three days was above 3.0%, and after the fourth 'ceasefire day' I was expecting today to see the CW gone, but it's still active. Is the three-day window not a fixed duration, or the 3% not a set threshold?

Could it be that the +3% wasn't maintained on the fourth day (however, I'd always understood the outcome is determined as early as day three - no assets would have changed hands so it's impossible to know from that source). Clearly the Inf on days 4 and 5 is now below 3% and I expect the CW might rumble on. Based on day 3 being above 3% I was relaxed about not jumping in and nudging on the potential winner.

Dates below are for the tick and the percentage is the gap between Infs following each day's tick.

8 April - 4.5%
9 April - 4.7%
10 April - 3.7%
11 April - 2.9%
12 April - 2.3%
 

Starwolfe

S
Its the Day 3 into Day 4 gap that matters. Why we say its Day 3 work that matters to get that Day 4 result for an early end.

Since that gap was 2.9%, and not 3% the conflict has not ended. So its working as I have come to expect.
 

MottiKhan

MottiKhan
Starwolfe said:
Its the Day 3 into Day 4 gap that matters. Why we say its Day 3 work that matters to get that Day 4 result for an early end.

Since that gap was 2.9%, and not 3% the conflict has not ended. So its working as I have come to expect.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I guess it's a matter of semantics. The tick isn't complete until the end of the day.
 

Johnny Cyclops

Johnny Cyclops
Just so it's clear...

4 April : -3.2% - one Boom, one no-state
5 April : 0.0% - both Boom - Inf match - Pending CW
6 April : -1.4% - Pending CW
7 April : -3.6% - Pending CW
8 April : 4.5% - CW
9 April : 4.7% - CW
10 April : 3.7% - CW
11 April : 2.9% - CW
12 April : 2.3% - CW

My previous experience is that if the Inf was 3%+ on the third day's tick of the CW (i.e. 10th April's tick) then the CW stays in place for a fourth day, the outcome is already determined, but further CZ fighting can continue. Where assets swap hands this can be on that third day's tick too (although in this case there are no assets in play).
 

Johnny Cyclops

Johnny Cyclops
Starwolfe said:
Its the Day 3 into Day 4 gap that matters. Why we say its Day 3 work that matters to get that Day 4 result for an early end.

Since that gap was 2.9%, and not 3% the conflict has not ended. So its working as I have come to expect.
Click to expand...

So if I was looking for the asset switching hands, it would be on the Day 4 tick, state is still marked CW, but effectively it's over and will clear on day 5. Somehow I'd got in my head that all happened on day 3, but then that would lead to two more days of CW/CZ - day 3 into 4, and 4 into 5. Looking at my records for prior War/CW I do see the asset changes with the day 4 tick. I guess I was wrong and at 3.7% after Day 3 I should have given it a bit of a combat nudge in the right direction. The system is of marginal interest, and not one I directly play, but I am trying to limit any scope for an expansion (which would head in my direction).

And if I'd seen and understood better the 2.9% on day 4 I could have done some work ahead of day 5, whereas instead the gap's become smaller again.
 

Starwolfe

S
The change of hands for property is always on that 4th day at the earliest if the victor is decided, 11 April in this case.
So the deciding factor is the influence results for the work on the 10 April going into the 11 April to determine who gets what.
At that point the conflict is over, the result is decided and you can continue to fight on the 4th day but it won't change the result.

In this case, there wasn't enough of a gap to decide victory, so it continues.


I have never seen a conflict where the 4th day being under the required gap ended with a victory.
You can work the 4th to upset the 5th day which should be the recovery to get another pending potentially, but typically it doesn't do a switch like that otherwise.

Johnny Cyclops said:
So if I was looking for the asset switching hands, it would be on the Day 4 tick, state is still marked CW, but effectively it's over and will clear on day 5. Somehow I'd got in my head that all happened on day 3, but then that would lead to two more days of CW/CZ - day 3 into 4, and 4 into 5. Looking at my records for prior War/CW I do see the asset changes with the day 4 tick. I guess I was wrong and at 3.7% after Day 3 I should have given it a bit of a combat nudge in the right direction. The system is of marginal interest, and not one I directly play, but I am trying to limit any scope for an expansion (which would head in my direction).

And if I'd seen and understood better the 2.9% on day 4 I could have done some work ahead of day 5, whereas instead the gap's become smaller again.
Click to expand...
Yep, you've got it as I understand it that's what should happen.
 
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