States: "Best Current Thinking"

Jane Turner

Volunteer Moderator
Here is the shared view on states.




  • >>EXPANSION<<: Expansion will be into the closest system with less than 7 factions within a 40LY radius and once pending will go active regardless of the influence of the expansion centre*. Once all systems in range have 7 factions, invasions will occur instead.
  • >>WAR/CIVIL WAR<< runs for a maximum of 7 days with the outcome of each day decided by transactions. To win you must win more days than your opponent and will end once victory is inevitable Election is similar, though non-combat actions contribute
  • >>RETREAT<<: The faction needs to be below 2.5% on the day before retreat ends and the last day. Once retreated from a system, future expansion are thought to de-prioritise that system until all other possibilities are exhausted. It is not possible to retreat a faction if there are fewer than 3 factions or the faction is in its homes systems
  • Other states may affect the availability of missions, the availability of goods and the prices in market. Some result in a small automatic gain in influence and some in a small loss, even if "locked" in conflict.
State Changes


  • Expansion is triggered at 75.01%
  • War/CW/Election: Coups are triggered when a non-controlling faction reaches 60%, so long as neither faction has a conflict/election active, pending or in cooldown. They are also triggered when the influence of two factions should cross each other, above a minimum value of 7.0%. Instead of crossing the influence of both factions "catches" at the cross-over %. Elections are contested between factions from the same social group (apart from Anarchies), otherwise there is a conflict. Civil wars are fought between two factions with the same home system, though not necessarily IN the home system.
  • Other states are triggered by the movement of the security and economy sliders. Some of the more "exotic" states introduced in 3.3 and later, appear to have hidden population dependent buckets and long lead-in times, so there is no consensus yet on how to make them occur.
The effects of states on markets are listed >>HERE<<
Back to >>START<<
Link to >> DEFENCE STRATEGIES <<
Transactions are defined >>HERE<<
 
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From my observations to add;

Exploration data for Expansions seems accurate, but its difficult to judge.
As best as I can tell, Black Markets and Trade bear zero effect for factions while in Wars and Civil Wars. Their max duration still appears to be 28 days, as I have tracked a few into the 25-27 range recently.
The famine/Outbreak trade effect does appear to be 2, but only for related goods - Foodstuffs in Famine, Medicines in Outbreak. Which I guess is what you are trying to convey with that 1-2 note.

Other than that, of which you have basically already included, I like the list and it appears quite accurate.
 

Jane Turner

Volunteer Moderator
I am testing negative trading in an election todaay - we are way too high in one system that we don't want to expand from.
 
Do elections last 5 days? In previous posts it's been stated as 3 days (4 if an asset is involved) I have no evidence to back this, as we have just started, but we are currently preparing for an election which should start tonight.
 
Expansion: the default range is higher than 20 LY and seems to be variable.

Example: https://cdb.sotl.org.uk/factions/76/history
Without a previous investment, CCN expand from Centralis to Desy on 18 Jan (22.12 LY), Kioti 368 on 3 Feb (28.45 LY) and Mobia on 3 Apr (25.85 LY)
They then fail to expand on 21 April and enter Investment, despite Magellan (26.92 LY) having a space at the time.

I don't recall ever seeing an expansion below 22.5 LY fail to investment ... and that Centralis->Kioti 368 one is definitely on the long end of what I've seen work (and would usually have gone to investment)


(There is also the Invasion form of Expansion, which is used where possible in preference to Investment)
 
Do elections last 5 days? In previous posts it's been stated as 3 days (4 if an asset is involved) I have no evidence to back this, as we have just started, but we are currently preparing for an election which should start tonight.
Elections seem to normally last 4 days (asset transfer if any based on influence at the start of the 4th day) but if the winning margin isn't met can last 5 instead.
 

Jane Turner

Volunteer Moderator
Elections seem to normally last 4 days (asset transfer if any based on influence at the start of the 4th day) but if the winning margin isn't met can last 5 instead.

The 5 above includes the day the state shows despite the result being known... we report it as the result is conceded but last votes are still being counted. If you are 100% sure that there are 4 day ones (with 2 not 3 days of cooldown - I'll change it!
 
The 5 above includes the day the state shows despite the result being known... we report it as the result is conceded but last votes are still being counted. If you are 100% sure that there are 4 day ones (with 2 not 3 days of cooldown - I'll change it!
I had to look for a while through the census archives to find any 5 day ones at all - they all seem to be 3+1.
 
I had to look for a while through the census archives to find any 5 day ones at all - they all seem to be 3+1.

Probably because most Elections are already decided before the live phase starts.

Cooldown on Elections was / is 48h after the previous Stare ended.

Please note though that this Recovery time is misinterpreted that you can't equalise for 2 solid days (48h).

For the first 24h no other State can go pending (previously pending States can go active though). Afterwards you can start working the % again.
 
I don't know if its useful, but murdering / retiring security always counted for twice the negative influence of ordinary civilians- in days past I'd fine tune the negative influence I needed my staging the odd traffic accident.
 

Jane Turner

Volunteer Moderator
I don't know if its useful, but murdering / retiring security always counted for twice the negative influence of ordinary civilians- in days past I'd fine tune the negative influence I needed my staging the odd traffic accident.


You get the murder for the faction the clean ship belongs to and the fine which affects the controlling faction (often the same)
 
My experience with ELECTIONS (with my previous faction) is that the Cool-Down is only 1 day, the same as Wars & Civil Wars.

Based on 4 Elections contested (3 won, 1 lost) between 2nd July 2017 & 9th April 2018.

Didn't seem to make a difference whether asset change was involved or not.

I'll know for certain on Wednesday, my new faction is in active (Coup) Election now, Day 3 at the tick.
 

Jane Turner

Volunteer Moderator
My experience with ELECTIONS (with my previous faction) is that the Cool-Down is only 1 day, the same as Wars & Civil Wars.

Based on 4 Elections contested (3 won, 1 lost) between 2nd July 2017 & 9th April 2018.

Didn't seem to make a difference whether asset change was involved or not.

I'll know for certain on Wednesday, my new faction is in active (Coup) Election now, Day 3 at the tick.

Perhaps it varies then - since its always 2 in ours. Anyone else?
 
Thanks for the good post again ! Just my 0.2 cts : regarding missions, i think it is a little bit misleading saying they are generating 1 to 5 transactions so far as we don’t know. I recall you saying that last week in another post. Unless you have new data of course.

Otherwise, great job again!

Perhaps it varies then - since its always 2 in ours. Anyone else?

I saw 2 days as recovery time all the time in Colonia. But it is true the second day inf could trigger a new pending state.
 
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