Where is the paid 'content' LEP holder get for 'free'

[Mole HD]

I don't think that anyone seriously expects to see space legs or atmos this year. It's more like 'wouldn't it be great' and 'if we assume they are already working on it for some years it wouldn't be entirely unrealistic'. FDEV did a pretty good job at keeping expectations low on this one.

Slightly off topic for the thread...I think I would expect something in the realms of 'Hellion' for an Elite feet representation...rather than most of the speculation surrounding an FPS type of experience like that CoD infinite warfare space thing that Infinity Ward churned out...as enjoyable as that was for me playing through it (strangely enough).

Zero Gravity got it right with Hellion. A very enjoyable game all in all.

 

[Stigbob]

That's not what I said.

Thanks for clarifying.

You aren't sure.

None of us are, that's the point of the thread. I don't want to guess, and after getting on for three years I'm not massively interested in anyone else's guesses.

​

Avoid the thread, or ignore the guesses I'm not sure what point you are trying to make here. This whole thread is just idle speculation.

There is no need for this clutter in every LEP thread, nutter conspiracy theories aside fundamentally there is a strong desire to know what's going on for completely reasonable reasons.

​

What's going on could well be we can't give you a definite answer now as these things are variable. Which is why my expectations have wiggle room in them and I'm not analyzing FDEV's adverts/statements for tiny clues as to what's coming.

I'd also argue that we do know what's going on. We get beyond this year, followed by more paid content that's the plan in a nutshell.

That's both what's coming and when it'll arrive.

The number of hours someone has played has no connection to the value of the game not yet released. This and many other arguments have been made countless times, while FDev breathe a sigh of relief that once more they have an excuse to not engage with us rowdy lot.

​

I think they avoid these threads due to all the dev bashing and the comedy legal threats. They might laugh at them on the their lunch breaks though.

How much you've used a thing has a massive impact on refund likelihood, it's probably one of the single biggest deciding factors. Check your own pennies spent to hours played ratio in comparison to most games ED is very reasonable. In terms of an LEP so does the fact that the lifetime of the game is not yet over rendering any claim an LEP proved to be bad value for money a guess, it's like complaining the sofa that's supposed to be delivered by Friday hasn't arrived on Wednesday.

If someone wants to know, they can e-mail Fdev. If they want to share that info it's up to them, or maybe FDev can put something out publicly. What they want to know could just as easily be 'how to I get a refund for product not yet delivered?' as much as what the product not yet delivered is likely to be and when it's likely to be delivered.

Want doesn't always work, and things are not always precise.

Also remember NMS's two week delay announcement, reporters devs and their families were all threatened with various hideous things and two weeks isn't exactly a big deal. Not everyone is able to cope with an incorrect estimate, just as not everyone is OK with a vague plan. Others are however OK with both.

 

[Devari]

"The deferred revenue is in respect of Elite Dangerous lifetime expansion passes purchased during the financial year, Elite Dangerous: Horizons
revenue in respect of future promised content and Planet Coaster pre-orders."

That is not the sentence that appears in the 2017 Annual Report. I have the report open in front of me right now, p. 45, and it says:

"The deferred revenue is in respect of Elite Dangerous lifetime expansion passes purchased during the financial year and Elite Dangerous: Horizons revenue in respect of future promised content."

That is a very clear sentence to understand. There are no commas, it is not trying to combine three separate sets of deferred revenue and there should be no difficult understanding exactly what it means.

There is also the very obvious fact that they treating both the LEP and Horizons content as deferred revenue, i..e, content that had not yet been delivered at the time they collected the revenue. That should very clearly tell you that they are treating their obligations identically for both sets of purchases, regardless of whether it's an LEP or a Horizons pre-order. The term "promised content" would obviously apply to either of them because they are being treated in exactly the same way as deferred revenue. If they have clearly "promised" to deliver Horizons content then you can very obviously use exactly the same term to refer to their obligation to deliver LEP content.

Your ridiculous semantic arguments are not even remotely coherent here. The "argument" you are trying to make is either an issue of basic reading comprehension or intentional trolling.

 

[Winterwalker]

"The deferred revenue is in respect of Elite Dangerous lifetime expansion passes purchased during the financial year and Elite Dangerous: Horizons revenue in respect of future promised content."

Yes but that does not mean that is what the money has to be spent on, it's JUST how the money is being attributed 'over time' for accounts (it makes the financials appear less volatile, for example and there's nothing stopping that money being used to pay for office cleaners who, guess what, also hoover the Jurassic World area).

I'm trying to work out what you're driving at. "Ten year plan" is .. old. Is it really a surprise FDev attributed LEP monies over that period? Is it also a surprise that (if they can afford to do it, and a good thing) Horizons monies are attributed in the same way, making the financials less volatile?

Frontier are on record saying that if the game is profitable then development can easily go beyond ten years, which only represents a development roadmap / estimated timespan made at project start. So I don't understand what you're worried about. If the game was in bad shape there would be no funds to attribute remaining, right!?

And as far as what you get 'for free' from your LEP (aka. the OP), you didn't get anything for free, because you bought a LEP.

 

[Devari]

Another fun fact from the Annual Reports, not only is FD's most recent estimate of 7 years of development in their 2017 Annual Report a very reliable figure, as it was also given in their 2016 Annual Report, it is actually more likely to decrease than it is to increase as that estimate was actually decreased by one year in comparison to 2015.

In the 2015 Annual Report FD stated: "Deferred revenue of 0.7 million GBP (2014: 2.2 million GBP) was carried forward, which is expected to be released over the estimated useful economic life of the franchise, estimated at eight years."

In the 2016 Annual Report FD stated: "the next five and a half years (expected remaining life of the franchise period)." That is shortened from 8 years in total down to only 7 years.

In the 2017 Annual Report FD indicated the same figure from 2016, which was 7 years. This was despite the delivery of Horizons being delayed by a full year.

That's right, FD has decreased their expected lifetime for active Elite development from 8 years in 2015 to only 7 years in the 2016 and 2017 reports. They removed an entire year from the expected life of the Elite franchise. This was despite Horizons taking 2 full years to deliver instead of 1 year. They literally decreased the amount of time they expect the franchise to be actively developed since Horizons launched despite taking 2 years to deliver 1 year of content. If anything, you would have expected FD to increase their estimates by a year to make up for the delays in delivering Horizons. Instead we lost a year of development when Horizons took a full year longer than planned and then lost another year when FD decreased their plans since 2015.

 

[Winterwalker]

Another fun fact from the Annual Reports, not only is FD's most recent estimate of 7 years of development in their 2017 Annual Report a very reliable figure, as it was also given in their 2016 Annual Report, it is actually more likely to decrease than it is to increase as that estimate was actually decreased by one year in comparison to 2015.

In the 2015 Annual Report FD stated: "Deferred revenue of 0.7 million GBP (2014: 2.2 million GBP) was carried forward, which is expected to be released over the estimated useful economic life of the franchise, estimated at eight years."

In the 2016 Annual Report FD stated: "the next five and a half years (expected remaining life of the franchise period)." That is shortened from 8 years in total down to only 7 years.

In the 2017 Annual Report FD indicated the same figure from 2016, which was 7 years. This was despite the delivery of Horizons being delayed by a full year.

That's right, FD has decreased their expected lifetime for active Elite development from 8 years in 2015 to only 7 years in the 2016 and 2017 reports. They removed an entire year from the expected life of the Elite franchise. This was despite Horizons taking 2 full years to deliver instead of 1 year. They literally decreased the amount of time they expect the franchise to be actively developed since Horizons launched despite taking 2 years to deliver 1 year of content. If anything, you would have expected FD to increase their estimates by a year to make up for the delays in delivering Horizons. Instead we lost a year of development when Horizons took a full year longer than planned and then lost another year when FD decreased their plans since 2015.

Devari, that's revenue .. REVENUE.

FDev have to account for money they have recieved to date (LEP + Horizons) because it's money in the bank. They do not (cannot) account for future revenue - eg. Horizons 2, which revenue doesn't exist yet. You're reading something into re-attribution of funds that doesn't take that future revenue into account - while somewhere in Frontier they will surely have an estimate on revenue expected from Horizons 2 that gives them confidence to do (what established publishers do) which is frontload the spending somewhat - develop game first, sell game second. You seem to be reading it like a pure balance sheet when the nature of publishing is that you invest in the content you're developing, which cannot be sold until it's made.

 

[Devari]

I'm trying to work out what you're driving at. "Ten year plan" is .. old. Is it really a surprise FDev attributed LEP monies over that period? Is it also a surprise that (if they can afford to do it, and a good thing) Horizons monies are attributed in the same way, making the financials less volatile?

You don't seem to understand what deferred revenue represents. They are literally saying that it is revenue that they haven't earned yet because they have not yet delivered that content to customers. As a result they are not considering all of the LEP revenue collected to be reportable as revenue until they have reached the expected lifetime of the franchise. Once this happens they will have reported all of that revenue to shareholders. They are telling shareholders they "earned" that revenue when the franchise reaches the end of its expected life.

That is the same as indicating that they consider their obligations for delivering LEP content fulfilled at that point in time. Even if they have not delivered an appropriate amount of content to LEP owners by the end of those 7 years they have indicated that they intend to report the full value collected for that total LEP revenue by that point in time. The decrease in the expected lifetime of the franchise from 8 years in 2015 to 7 years in 2016 and 2017 would suggest they are trying to claim that LEP content will be provided over a shorter period of time which is not remotely believable given the rate of paid content they have delivered so far.

Think about that for a second. They have told their shareholders that LEP money will be fully earned by the end of 2021. What possible reason would they have to deliver more paid content to LEP owners after that point in time? They will have reported the entire amount of LEP revenue in their Annual Reports at that point. Why would they put any more development effort and resources into Elite when their shareholders are seeing no more deferred revenue? Why wouldn't they put those development resources into another franchise that would represent a new source of revenue for shareholders?

 

[Devari]

You seem to be reading it like a pure balance sheet when the nature of publishing is that you invest in the content you're developing, which cannot be sold until it's made.

They are telling their shareholders in their Annual Report that they will consider the LEP money earned by the end of 2021 because that is the expected lifetime of the Elite franchise. They decreased that total estimate from 8 years in 2015 down to 7 years in 2016 and 2017. What reason would they have to produce more content for LEP owners beyond 2021 if they have considered their "content" obligations to have been fulfilled at that time?

 

[Winterwalker]

snip?

Company accounts are not written for shareholders. They're a legal obligation .. for submission to HMRC.

What reason would they have to produce more content for LEP owners beyond 2021 if they have considered their "content" obligations to have been fulfilled at that time?

No that's JUST how they're spending money in the bank over period.

It takes NO ACCOUNT of monies not yet recieved. It can't .. it doesn't exist in the account yet. That's a different matter and while current account can form part of it, the judgement investors make in a company in practice is also based on other factors, titles, state of the market, opportunity costs, feelings in your water etc.

 

[Devari]

Company accounts are not written for shareholders. They're a legal obligation .. for submission to HMRC.

Who exactly do you think is reading those Annual Reports? They are very clearly written in a language that would only be relevant to shareholders or other investors. They are, however, quite useful for their customers as they provide information which was not otherwise made publically available if you don't actually take the time to read those reports.

 

[Viajero]

*cough*

What was the subject of this thread again?

Please stay on topic. thanks.

‘Twas microwave ovens and food I believe.

 

[Devari]

No that's JUST how they're spending money in the bank over period.

They are deferring the revenue to the later years. It's not how the money is being spent, it's how it's being reported in their Annual Reports.

It takes NO ACCOUNT of monies not yet recieved. It can't .. it doesn't exist in the account yet. That's a different matter and a judgement investors make in a company based on other titles, state of the market, other opportunity costs, feelings in your water etc.

I have no idea what you are trying to say here. I never referred to "monies not yet received". I referred to revenue that they have collected for content that has not yet been delivered, i.e., future promised LEP content, which they are stating will be earned by the end of 2021.

 

[Winterwalker]

Who exactly do you think is reading those Annual Reports? They are very clearly written in a language that would only be relevant to shareholders or other investors. They are, however, quite useful for their customers as they provide information which was not otherwise made publically available if you don't actually take the time to read those reports.

I'm sorry, no. Please read my ninja'd edit in #1051.

 

[Devari]

I'm sorry, no. Please read my ninja'd edit in #1051.

Yes, of course it's a legal obligation to release those reports as they are a publically traded company. That wasn't my question. The issue is who is the target audience of those reports. They make very clear references to their future plans and they are written in a manner which is clearly designed to appeal to shareholders and investors.

 

[Winterwalker]

I have no idea what you are trying to say here. I never referred to "monies not yet received". I referred to revenue that they have collected for content that has not yet been delivered, i.e., future promised LEP content, which they are stating will be earned by the end of 2021.

You are trying to say that as soon as LEP / Horizons money is spent, that's it .. development ends. I'm saying it's not because the document you're reading gives no information on revenue that isn't in yet (Horizons 2). It doesn't give that info, only because HRMC can't tax money you haven't yet received yet. That's HMRC. An investor also bases decisions on whether they expect Horizons 2 to happen, and that's not in the accounts yet. It's the nature of investment (and money speculation, expected ROI etc) that you look ahead, HMRC is not allowed to do that.

 

[WR3ND]

...

It's just allocation of funds and reports. It's on a deferment level. Apples and oranges. They're both fruit, yes, but still, context is relevant here.

 

[Devari]

You are trying to say that as soon as LEP / Horizons money is spent, that's it .. development ends. I'm saying it's not because the document you're reading gives no information on revenue that isn't in yet (Horizons 2). It doesn't give that info, only because HRMC can't tax money you haven't yet received yet. That's HMRC. An investor also bases decisions on whether they expect Horizons 2 to happen, and that's not in the accounts yet. It's the nature of investment (and money speculation, expected ROI etc) that you look ahead, HMRC is not allowed to do that.

You seem to be very confused about how Elite has been developed and what information is contained in their Annual Reports. I have no idea what you are even referring to with "Horizons 2". We have a single paid expansion called Horizons. We have nothing called "Horizons 2".

 

[Cheapchips]

Since it's confirmed that we are getting paid content at the end of this year, the question to my mind is when will we have further paid content after that?

Horizons didn't seem to be the best way to structure a season. Beyond style content update/gameplay tweaks with paid features every 18 months seems doable.

FDev are learning as they go. Beyond is encouraging. It's not like there's a template for developing Elite, it's a unique game.

 

[Devari]

To be very clear about how the Annual Report is written, here are the first two pages of the pdf document:

I think it is pretty obvious who they are intending that report to be read by. It's the type of individual to whom statements such as "Record Results", "Profits Increase 550%" and "Building on Our Self-Publishing Success" would grab their attention. Those statements are not written for the benefit of HMRC, unless you are suggesting it is particularly important for them to know that FD is "Building on Our Self-Publishing Success".

 

[Winterwalker]

It's just allocation of funds and reports. It's on a deferment level. Apples and oranges. They're both fruit, yes, but still, context is relevant here.

Agreed context is relevant to an Investor ... however HMRC is not interested (and company accounts are primarily an annual report / obligation to HMRC). Investors can read them, of course .. and evidently Devari has!

However it doesn't give full context, especially in a publishing business where you have to develop content ahead of time and you're in a constant state of investing in a future revenue.