The karma system may be with us by the end of beyond but I don't hold out much hope for it if C&P is anything to go by. The vast majority of calls to reform C&P from the forums leading up to beyond, was regarding PvP or more specifically (griefing/ganking). Instead we got "hotships", which, did nothing to address this and furthermore started to unravel because it was bas on flawed logic, i.e. the crimes follow the ships.
What we should of had in my opinion is a Pilots Federation reputation/bounty/rebuy system for 3.0. Karma evokes something slightly different to me as it implies death and rebirth, which , should perhaps be fitting for things like combat logging and other cheatings or anti-social behaviour. I do not count griefing/ganking as "karma crime", because it PvP is part of the game, this could be dealt better with C&P & PF rep system, imho. Of course some players are going to want to shoot up other players for laughs but they could find themselves with big bounties on their head and increase rebuys. This would be governed by a PF rep system.
The OP does make a good point about getting ridiculous bounties for stray shots, these should just be fines and rep loss. If your wanted status was tied to your faction rep, i.e. if you were "hostile rep" = wanted =bounties on head to the equivalent to your ship value. This ties your actions to your criminal status and the means to get out of trouble with the law is in your own hands also.
It is possible we get the Karma system by end of beyond, it is also possible that they are running the Karma in the background already.... as much of how the Karma system works would be server side..... Lets take the popular topic of Combat logging....
Why we are not punished for dong that is that people not "working" the system, get disconnects randomly and only triggering on specific times when we will "punish" you for this would be unfair, so to make it alot more lenient to the average player, we get the consequence that player can abuse this. Now how I think the would make the Karma system deal with this is to keep a log on all disconnects, and record what was the situation when it happened?
So average player with dodgy internet, get disconnect all over the place, they loose connection just flying, winning fights, loosing fights, etc, etc, So Karma system will not raise any flags on this player.
Then we have the notorious seal clubber, that when he picks on the wrong target, and is about to loose, simply combat log to avoid the rebuy and deny the other player their win. Here the Karma system would see that just about any disconnect had the same parameters, fight instigated by player, player is loosing the fight, disconnect happens. Karma would increase the Karma level, and this could later be used later to add consequences, punishment etc, etc for example, C&P could send ATR x2, x3, x4 as soon as player enters certain systems.... They could get a ATR on standby to jump into their instance as soon as they open fire on an clean player, etc, etc, making it almost impossible to hunt "newbies", or they could simply take directly to rebuy when they login again...
And do not forget, Karma would most likely working on analysing data, so reporting a CMDR for combat logging, suicidal crashing etc, etc, and then when reported using the in game reporting system could put player in a priority queue to be analysed....
It does not really matter what the system would be called, FDev seems to have choosing Karma for this function. I do get why they might have chosen Karma, as is not uncommon to refer to people having god or bad Karma based on their actions, without talking about rebirth.
I do agree that OP makes some good points about the ridiculous bounties, and FDev have also acknowledged that and they said they would raise the cap for accidental fire....
And we are still missing the core issue here, it is still not C&P initiated problem, it has been this way as long as I can remember. C&P only make the cost for these small infractions alot more noticeable than before. So the issue here is that we only have ONE response by authority, kill on sight if you are wanted... And you can only turn yourself in (a new feature), after you have successfully docked at a wanted station.... how stupid isn't that to begin with? Add to this how they sneaked in the notoriety level, an almost hidden stat, that is not explained at all ingame, confusing player all over the place...