What kind of sales numbers can ED expect to see?

[amigacooke]

I like to think ED is not too hardcore, but a lot of potential players are too softcore

DB has a solid reputation in the games industry and some reputation in the IT field generally (at least in the UK). I'd expect the BBC (hoorah) to show interest on release and European gaming websites and magazines.

The US has always been a tough nut to crack for the Elite franchise and I suspect with Star Citizen in the offing that will remain the case.

So, numbers, not a clue. I don't work in the industry and don't have any real experience or knowledge to base an estimate on. Bet you weren't expecting that.

 

[kilvenny]

ED as of initial release is a niche game so I dont expect huge sales unless there is a lot of its the new Elite sales. What will make this game is the planet landing/walking around element.

One of the big frustrations with FPS shooters is the small game world. If FD can nail a PG walking around/FPS experience that effectively creates limitless maps then this game could become a huge hit.

I agree it needs to go on consoles to maximise the market.

The other thing for FD is the spin off Cobra engine sales. ED is showcasing Cobra as much as its making ED.

I am cautiously optimistic.

 

[Queebatron]

I don't doubt that this could attract a lot of console players if done right. However, there's the question of how to control the game with only the controller--the minute you start expecting players to get special hardware, you start limiting your potential customers, especially console players who expect to get the full experience with the hardware they already have.

 

[Fromhell]

1) everyone who wants it already got it.

2) further money will only come from micro transactions and releasing expansions.

3) More than 100.000 accounts is extremely unrealistic.

4) the CoD, WoT and DOTA masses will stick with what they have.

5) this is my opinion as a professional gaming analyst.

 

[Ramireza]

3) More than 100.000 accounts is extremely unrealistic.
.

If this happens then this game is dead already. 100.000 sold copies is BY FAR not enough to keep this game alive. 100.000 + the 80.000 backer that we have already, means an turnover of about 8 - 10 mio USD (this includes the Kickstarter and the beta backers of course), the budget for the 1.0 game (without the expansion) should be about 15 - 20 mio USD.

DB said that about 80 ppl work on ED in full production, this means about 8 - 9 mio USD just to pay this ppl since 18 month.

 

[Frank]

Well if the Rift reddit is anything to go by then when Occulus sell a million CV1s that'll be a million more EDs sold.

It's earning a healthy reputation for itself with the Rift community. I just hope the average punter off the street doesn't associate it so closely with the Rift that they think it's not for them because they don't own a headset.

 

[Lobstris]

Caution WAG follows...

Always used to love when an Iron Maiden single was released. It would jump to about #3 in the singles chart as all the fans rushed out and bought it, then it would drop out of the chart the very next week. As a worst case scenario, all (80%+) the people who were really interested have already signed up.

I actually think, based on the good press the game has got so far (and the completely unscientific method of looking at the percentage of gaming friends who've asked me about the game) that it will be a minor sleeper hit in the S.T.A.L.K.E.R. mode and sell 1-2 million in total.

The modifier and wildcard in this is 'how long does it take for Star Citizen to get its act together?' The longer that takes, the more sales there will be for Elite. Getting Elite on Steam would also be a big sales boost.

The irony will come when both SC and E: D sales are eclipsed by 'No Man's Sky'.

 

[Patrick_68000]

What time frame are we talking about? Sale numbers for the first year? After 5 years? After 10 years?

I think ED will sell steadily for a long time and eventually have some big numbers.

For my part, I spoke during the next three years and with numerous variables

For FE2 in the 90s, between 500 000 and a million copies had been sold, just in Europe. I think that ED for the next three years, could be sold between 10 and 20 million copies all over the world

Frontier has already sold games to 10 million copies. FE2 in the 90s was not a multiplayer online game. Much less people had a PC. The video game industry is expanding rapidly in recent years. Ed will release on PC, MAC, Linux and perhaps on consoles ... In the next three years, there will be planetary landings and other expansions. Mr Braben will certainly target the Chinese market. Etc ...

In an interview, David declared that he has already sold one games to 10 million of copies (thus for ED he aims also very high). Recently Michael declared, that Frontier, aims at the worldwide

 

[Daeron]

1) everyone who wants it already got it.

2) further money will only come from micro transactions and releasing expansions.

3) More than 100.000 accounts is extremely unrealistic.

4) the CoD, WoT and DOTA masses will stick with what they have.

5) this is my opinion as a professional gaming analyst.

Looks like a solid two out of five to me. When it comes to fortune telling, that is impressive enough.

 

[Ramireza]

The irony will come when both SC and E: D sales are eclipsed by 'No Man's Sky'.

To be fair : NMS didnt have the same focus, its much more an mainstream expierience.

50% NMS, 35% SC and 15% ED i would say.

 

[Pyros]

1) everyone who wants it already got it.

2) further money will only come from micro transactions and releasing expansions.

3) More than 100.000 accounts is extremely unrealistic.

4) the CoD, WoT and DOTA masses will stick with what they have.

5) this is my opinion as a professional gaming analyst.

1) is oddly reminiscent of the resignation reason of Queen Victoria Chief Inventor: "everything that is worth inventing has already been discovered". Actually I'd say many people will only buy ED after launch, at least taking into account forum statements as anecdotal evidence.

I'd go for the 400k during first year, with around 2 to 3 million across lifetime and several platforms.

P.S. The referred statement may be a urban legend

 

[Mrjupp]

1)5) this is my opinion as a professional gaming analyst.

I reckon your figures don't stand up to scrutiny. I am the owner of a digital marketing company and looking at other software releases as comparators, your "analysis" is underwhelming to say the least. Maybe it's time to look for a new career? Just saying.

 

[Renideo]

There's no way everyone who wants it has it already. Some aren't yet aware of it, but will want it when they are (an ongoing process of increased awareness that is perfectly normal); some can't afford it at £50+ and are waiting for gamma but haven't yet pre-ordered(not that we know how many have pre-ordered); some want to wait to see how it turns out before buying; some don't want to burn out playing the beta, and are just waiting for release, and some portion of them haven't gotten around to pre-ordering.

And the desire to play the game will vary with hype and word of mouth, as things do, such that entire new groups of players will be brought in based on what they hear / see of the game at different points in time. Individuals who knew about elite but didn't think they wanted it might be convinced by a review, or some youtuber they like, a friend, or otherwise.

Genres are not in and of themselves absolute, either. Star wars was a phenomenon in and of itself, and space combat as a concept is hugely popular. A lot of people will be willing to try something as long as it appeals to them directly. Maybe SC does that better than Elite, I couldn't say, I do hope Elite develops a stronger set of tools for helping new players situate themselves such as tutorials and so on.

Also of course, it isn't actually available on most platforms yet.

 

[KING5TON]

I'd love for E: D to sell millions and be a massive success.
I don't think it'll get any where near that though.
To get that kind of sales FD need to entice much different types of gamers than their current backers.
Creating a game they want to play isn't the same as creating a game the vast majority of gamers want to play.

I personally like what they're creating and hope they continue but I feel massive success and creating a game that satisfies a certain itch are mutually exclusive to a degree.

 

[Tacheel]

1) everyone who wants it already got it.

Out of the people i know who are interested in the game, most are waiting for release, they don't want to play the finished game. So the evidence from my sample of people suggests this is wrong.

2) further money will only come from micro transactions and releasing expansions.

3) More than 100.000 accounts is extremely unrealistic.

4) the CoD, WoT and DOTA masses will stick with what they have.

5) this is my opinion as a professional gaming analyst.

2 and 3 are based on the assumption that your 1 is correct, and 5 - really?

 

[Ramireza]

I'd go for the 400k during first year...

This sounds realistic and this is what ED AT LEAST needs to sell to survice long enough to bring us EXP1, EXP2 and console support, wich should also means more sales afterwards.

Making this game is still a risky thing for frontier, thats for sure.

 

[Forzeti]

To be fair : NMS didnt have the same focus, its much more an mainstream expierience.

50% NMS, 35% SC and 15% ED i would say.

I really don't get they hype about No Man's Sky. Doesn't seem that exciting to me, tbh...

 

[Ramireza]

I really don't get they hype about No Man's Sky. Doesn't seem that exciting to me, tbh...

Well, its seems that you are a 15% guy (like me)

 

[uncle bulgaria]

As for everyone who wants this has got it I think that's pretty far from the mark. On a football (soccer for our US chums) forum I go on there is a lively PC Gaming thread and now an Elite Dangerous thread (I'm the OP ), a lot of people there are holding on for the final release. There has been much HOTAS planning the last few days.

I was going to wait for full release but I snapped 2 weeks ago and bought the beta, loving it so far.

 

[Toscaner]

it's still a niche game

while definitely not everybody who wants it has it already, and i wouldn't recommend buying atm either, anything about 1mil would be a surprise to me

- Exploration: it's a total nerd-thing
- no easy/accessible PVP: nothing like, login and immediately get in a fight
- no empire building: many fans of for example EVE, will not like that

i like those points quite a lot, but i don't think i'm part of a majority there

and to put in perspective with other sales - a major hit like Diablo 3, which was hyped like nothing else and constantly in the gaming press for a long time, sold 20m copies over all platforms (within 2 years) - i can't imagine Elite reaching anything near that