What kind of sales numbers can ED expect to see?

fireFly1000

F
Queebatron said:
The only thing that gives me pause is that Elite is in a somewhat niche genre + has relatively complicated controls compared to something like CoD. I certainly hope it sells into the low millions over its lifetime.
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FD really went over the edge when designed a control system with more than 3 buttons. MADNESS!! :D
 

Fromhell

Fromhell
Mrjupp said:
I reckon your figures don't stand up to scrutiny. I am the owner of a digital marketing company and looking at other software releases as comparators, your "analysis" is underwhelming to say the least. Maybe it's time to look for a new career? Just saying.
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ED does not fit into any of the following major selling categories:

-Candy Crush
-Clash of Clans
-Call of Duty

I was right with a lot of predictions regarding ED so far.
In fact, each and every prediction, and I will be right with the sales prediction too.
I said MT´s and expansions will make the *real* money, not the number of accounts.

ED is a niche, within a niche, within a niche. That is a fact.
PC only, complexity and sci-fi sim = Niche³

On the other hand dedicated player base, middle aged, good income, less time
-> Microtransaction/pay for convenience/pay for cosmetics #1 target group
 
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Cmdr Eagleboy

Cmdr Eagleboy
Zephyriel said:
Sadly, given how few people even know about the game, I wouldn't expect a huge number of sales. I bet a lot of mainstream gaming sites/magazines won't even review it when it's released, and it seems to have approximately zero marketing budget, instead relying entirely on word of mouth. Besides, very few people are actually interested in space sims, especially one as hardcore as Elite. Please do not compare with the old Elite games' performance back in the day, we all know the gaming scene as changed a lot since. And finally, a lot of people serious about buying the game have already done so by backing it, so I'm not sure how many more potential buyers this all leaves...

Let's be realistic, guys, ED probably won't sell tons. People talking about several million sales are simply daydreaming. Games like GTA, FIFA and Call of Duty sell millions, and that's because 1) they are well established franchises (the last Elite game was 20 years ago, young gamers don't know about it) 2) they are released on PC as well as consoles, and actually mostly sell on consoles 3) their genres are very popular and 4) their marketing budget are at least ten times the entire budget of Elite Dangerous. ED can never hope to compete with them in terms of sales numbers.

What we can do is spread the word and try to show it to as many people as possible, as it's surely an impressive game. I think it's biggest chance of success will rely on Oculus Rift ; by the time the consumer version is released, ED will probably be the best and most impressive game available, so some people could by it without being into space sims at all, just for the experience or to show their friends...
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You have good points, but I have something to add:
#1 There's no huge marketing yet because release date for retail version is not well known yet; However, FD has been doing rounds for media this year a lot, in all possible game shows. And it surely helps. They will put serious coin into ads when time will be right and game will be close to ready;
#2 FD currently aim for people with interest in sims in general and space sims. They don't try to reach to mainstream because they know it would be little waste of their resources; Said that, they will do mainstream marketing, but it will be to get word out there that new Elite game is arrived. There's still plenty people who know brand, so all they need is word and they will find information in minutes by themselves;
#3 Said that, I agree that selling 1 million copies would be awesome, but I do see it as long term goal; It certainly won't happen in first months or even year. I will be happy with 250k - 500k players in first two years.
 

[VR] Mad Mike

[VR] Mad Mike
IF ED comes to console (after it is completed on PC and then Mac of course) then I would expect it to sell in the millions but I think 10 - 20 million is a pipe dream unless you are going to include fire sales or a humble bundle inclusion in a number of years time.

I would hope that FD are not banking on 10-20 mil anyway!!!!.
 

Cmdr Eagleboy

Cmdr Eagleboy
Mad Mike said:
IF ED comes to console then I would expect it to sell in the millions but I think 10 - 20 million is a pipe dream unless you are going to include fire sales or a humble bundle inclusion in a number of years time.

I would hope that FD are not banking on 10-20 mil anyway!!!!.
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FD openly have said to their shareholders that they expect slow sales which will increase over time as people get word around.
 

Patrick_68000

Patrick_68000
Mrjupp said:
I reckon your figures don't stand up to scrutiny. I am the owner of a digital marketing company and looking at other software releases as comparators, your "analysis" is underwhelming to say the least. Maybe it's time to look for a new career? Just saying.
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... :D
 

Beachlight7

Beachlight7
Mad Mike said:
IF ED comes to console (after it is completed on PC and then Mac of course) then I would expect it to sell in the millions but I think .
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Console version could come before Mac. It might be easier and quicker to port it to PS4/xbox one than for Mac OS. In terms of order we only know PC version is first. Mac around 3 months later, though that could be delayed.
 

amigacooke

amigacooke
Beachlight7 said:
Console version could come before Mac. It might be easier and quicker to port it to PS4/xbox one than for Mac OS. In terms of order we only know PC version is first. Mac around 3 months later, though that could be delayed.
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Those of us who pushed hard for a Mac version would be unhappy to hear that.
 

TheDoctor

TheDoctor
Beachlight7 said:
Console version could come before Mac. It might be easier and quicker to port it to PS4/xbox one than for Mac OS. In terms of order we only know PC version is first. Mac around 3 months later, though that could be delayed.
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The MAC OS version is a stated streatch goal and I would think that would annoy an awful lot of people.

Given the very bad press that Peter Molyneaux has been given over using Godus kickstarter money to develop the game for mobile it would be rather rash for another developer to even try moving the goalposts.
 
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