What kind of sales numbers can ED expect to see?

[Minti2]

He is also good in the forecasts that our friend "The Lone Gunman" for the forecasts in the soccer matches (Excuse "The Lone Gunman", I was not able to refrain)

I predict that Patrick_68000 has just gone to the top of my most wanted list

 

[Kaelis33]

I will add atm there is nothing to the game right now. I get sick of just running between cities all the time. And they all look exactly alike. I have seen exactly two city models.

Its the same thing over and over. Hyperdrive/hypercruise/request docking/dock/menus/undock/hyperdrive/hypercruise/request dock/dock....

Nothing else happens. There is no way to LEGALLY and PROFITABLY engage in combat (I don't like PVP I mean PVE). I literally play 2 hours hoping to get into one ship battle. I after two hours finally get hailed by one pirate (who is a fair match) and I go to engage in combat and my ship does not have a gun equipped...like no guns by default.

So I have to run away, missing my only opportunity for a space fight in like 10 hours playing time. That's is boring as krap. I don't want to go buy a load of cheese to haul to the next star system.

I know this is beta, but please find some way to make this game exciting to play. There is ZERO sense of the unknown out there. I strange cluster of stars, an abandoned space station, an ancient civilization. This game consists of two(types) space stations and hypercuise atm.

This will not appeal to anyone but people already into this game.

 

[Commander Edison]

I will add atm there is nothing to the game right now. I get sick of just running between cities all the time. And they all look exactly alike. I have seen exactly two city models.

Its the same thing over and over. Hyperdrive/hypercruise/request docking/dock/menus/undock/hyperdrive/hypercruise/request dock/dock....

Nothing else happens. There is no way to LEGALLY and PROFITABLY engage in combat (I don't like PVP I mean PVE). I literally play 2 hours hoping to get into one ship battle. I after two hours finally get hailed by one pirate (who is a fair match) and I go to engage in combat and my ship does not have a gun equipped...like no guns by default.

So I have to run away, missing my only opportunity for a space fight in like 10 hours playing time. That's is boring as krap. I don't want to go buy a load of cheese to haul to the next star system.

I know this is beta, but please find some way to make this game exciting to play. There is ZERO sense of the unknown out there. I strange cluster of stars, an abandoned space station, an ancient civilization. This game consists of two(types) space stations and hypercuise atm.

This will not appeal to anyone but people already into this game.

Go to Eranin 2 and the defend, or attack, the Federal Battlecrusier at the distress beacon there. Or check out the resource extraction sites at various gas giants with ring systems. The one outside Freeport is great for pirate hunting. Or stop off at the nav beacons near to the star in each system and look for pirates, or pirate some ships yourself. You can even sit right outside Freeport and shoot up every NPC that comes in to dock if you like, but that is due to bugged station response.

As for not having any guns, all ships have at least one for free when you buy them. If you want more, go buy some. You'll find combat hard work otherwise.

 

[Vargur]

I think it will sell allright eventually, but it will probably grow slowly over the years.
But honestly i also hope it doesn't sell too much either.
500k or a million seems good.
Anything more and you start to drag in more and more people who will cause the game and community to degenerate into something it shouldn't be.

Honestly, how many multimillion game communities do you know where you can say it seems like a nice community.
Hopefully they keep the intellectual and skill threshold for the game high enough to keep out the brunt of the 'shut up and take my money' crowd.

 

[Commander Edison]

I think it will sell allright eventually, but it will probably grow slowly over the years.
But honestly i also hope it doesn't sell too much either.
500k or a million seems good.
Anything more and you start to drag in more and more people who will cause the game and community to degenerate into something it shouldn't be.

Honestly, how many multimillion game communities do you know where you can say it seems like a nice community.
Hopefully they keep the intellectual and skill threshold for the game high enough to keep out the brunt of the 'shut up and take my money' crowd.

Seconded. I think it'll do well, but it is a niche title and I don't think the devs have any intentions to chase the mainstream market. I know people get shirty about this kind of stuff, but I'd like it if the game remains a little inaccessible. Nothing ridiculous, but just enough to keep it a bit exclusive.

 

[Patrick_68000]

it is a niche title and I don't think the devs have any intentions to chase the mainstream market.

Well, the devs do not have a say. They are here to develop. The direction of Frontier has clearly indicated that they aim for the whole world. David even said that he had already made ​​games to 10 million copies

 

[sinsro]

I doubt Elite Dangerous will sell in huge numbers due to how complex the game is. You need to invest considerable time into it before you get rewarded with fun. It appeals more to highly intelligent and awesome people like us, which are relatively rare.

But, as with every game, marketing and reviews plays a big role. Not sure of their marketing budget, surely nothing like what companies like EA can boast. If the big review sites likes it, I am sure a lot of people will pick it up despite Elite no longer being a strong brand. They will definitively lose a lot of sales by not being on Steam though, I think they should relaunch there at a later point.

 

[[VR] Mad Mike]

Console version could come before Mac. It might be easier and quicker to port it to PS4/xbox one than for Mac OS. In terms of order we only know PC version is first. Mac around 3 months later, though that could be delayed.

It won't....(come to console before Mac). Or at least it shouldn't. This game was promised to Mac users in the ks therefore a lot of them backed the game. It would be a slap in the face to develop for another platform before theirs IMO.

They need to service their core audience before branching out to new markets.

 

[Patrick_68000]

Yes the MAC version to be released three months after the PC version. The console version can not be placed between the Two

 

[Ruskodisco]

I don't think the number of sales matters much, really. The game's real value to FDev will be as a demonstration of what the COBRA game engine can do & I expect they'll make more money from licensing it to other devs than they'll make from sales of ED.

<redacted> OF COURSE IT MATTERS. i know i shouldn't be mad at this comment but it seriously stupid. if they don't make money that's the end of future developments for this game. i really want this game to go n for years and keep getting better and better.
but people like you don't understand consumerism is what makes or breaks a product. if people aren't buying it then they aint making it better.

I will add atm there is nothing to the game right now. I get sick of just running between cities all the time. And they all look exactly alike. I have seen exactly two city models.

Its the same thing over and over. Hyperdrive/hypercruise/request docking/dock/menus/undock/hyperdrive/hypercruise/request dock/dock....

Nothing else happens. There is no way to LEGALLY and PROFITABLY engage in combat (I don't like PVP I mean PVE). I literally play 2 hours hoping to get into one ship battle. I after two hours finally get hailed by one pirate (who is a fair match) and I go to engage in combat and my ship does not have a gun equipped...like no guns by default.

So I have to run away, missing my only opportunity for a space fight in like 10 hours playing time. That's is boring as krap. I don't want to go buy a load of cheese to haul to the next star system.

I know this is beta, but please find some way to make this game exciting to play. There is ZERO sense of the unknown out there. I strange cluster of stars, an abandoned space station, an ancient civilization. This game consists of two(types) space stations and hypercuise atm.

This will not appeal to anyone but people already into this game.

its a beta dude. with literally not even 10% of SC budget they made a better game, i will give SC that this game was revived. but still just wait abit. they will have so much more. but you're the <person> who was like "i hope there is not too much people buying this game"
if people aren't buying this then you wont get what you want. people WILL be buying this it WILL sell to the millions. and when that happens you will be amazed at how much content will be in here.

FD really went over the edge when designed a control system with more than 3 buttons. MADNESS!!

the guy compared CoD, <redacted>
it will sell in the millions if they get planetary exploration, cities, and all those other features.

ED does not fit into any of the following major selling categories:

-Candy Crush
-Clash of Clans
-Call of Duty

I was right with a lot of predictions regarding ED so far.
In fact, each and every prediction, and I will be right with the sales prediction too.
I said MT´s and expansions will make the *real* money, not the number of accounts.

ED is a niche, within a niche, within a niche. That is a fact.
PC only, complexity and sci-fi sim = Niche³

On the other hand dedicated player base, middle aged, good income, less time
-> Microtransaction/pay for convenience/pay for cosmetics #1 target group

i have to disagree i am not one of those people that was excited about this game solely for the space flight, don't get me wrong i love this game now that i played but it wasn't the reason why. literally the 1st second heard that they were coming out with planetary landing, cities, and many other features for the game i bought the game" so did many of my friends. and they have aj ob opening for cross platform programmer. this game will be in the millions.

You have good points, but I have something to add:
#1 There's no huge marketing yet because release date for retail version is not well known yet; However, FD has been doing rounds for media this year a lot, in all possible game shows. And it surely helps. They will put serious coin into ads when time will be right and game will be close to ready;
#2 FD currently aim for people with interest in sims in general and space sims. They don't try to reach to mainstream because they know it would be little waste of their resources; Said that, they will do mainstream marketing, but it will be to get word out there that new Elite game is arrived. There's still plenty people who know brand, so all they need is word and they will find information in minutes by themselves;
#3 Said that, I agree that selling 1 million copies would be awesome, but I do see it as long term goal; It certainly won't happen in first months or even year. I will be happy with 250k - 500k players in first two years.

i will note one thing not may people care about spaceship simulator some do but not all. but people care about is the planetary landings, cities and all those other features that people were excited about in star citizen. i literally bough the game within a second of hearing that they will have those features in the expansion pack. i almost cryed because all i can think of is my wet dream of gta in space.
if the game can pull of planateary landings and all those features then yes it will be in the millions

i have to say something about alot of you people here. those people that are saying "i only hope there is 500K people that buy this game" and still think you're going to get all those juicy features like planet landings and cities and walking around the ship. are either people who think money grows on trees or people who don't/hate consumerism. if you don't understand consumerism or if you hate it while talking trash about it from your <redacted> self-made computer than please allow me to educate you, if this game doesn't sell fat(which it will) it will not continue to improve.

some say this is a niche market, i say no. why? because i did not buy this game simply for spaceship sim i bought this game because i heard (2 days ago) that this game will include planetary landings, cities, and so many other features. meaning that this is going to be the embodiment of "GTA in space".

now about the whole it being "hard" it's not it's simply a learning curve for some. for most of the younger generation like me it is just a 5 min learning period.

and again for those that only want 500k players cause of some reason of you feeling uneasy with to much people around in your computer(too mainstream excuse). please go away <redacted>

 

[TallTroll]

The point of the KS / investment round was to raise the funds for development. Whatever sales there are will be pretty high margin. This is not a game that will have to sell 6m copies to break even In that sense, it is already a commercial success.

Considering the much bleaker gaming landscape on the Mac and Linux, I wouldn't be surprised if it sells a fair number of copies on those platforms. Since the engine already natively supports consoles, they are bound to have a go at porting it, although it remains to be seen how successful that might be.

Technically, the WiiU is probably powerful enough to run the game, but adapting the controls would be, um, a challenge However, allowing WiiUs to control turrets on big ships could be hilarious. Same sort of thing for the MS / Sony consoles, it may be that getting the full space bit running ok with only controllers as inputs just isn't really possible, but getting the FPS portion onto them would be quite easy.

 

[Ruskodisco]

The point of the KS / investment round was to raise the funds for development. Whatever sales there are will be pretty high margin. This is not a game that will have to sell 6m copies to break even In that sense, it is already a commercial success.

Considering the much bleaker gaming landscape on the Mac and Linux, I wouldn't be surprised if it sells a fair number of copies on those platforms. Since the engine already natively supports consoles, they are bound to have a go at porting it, although it remains to be seen how successful that might be.

Technically, the WiiU is probably powerful enough to run the game, but adapting the controls would be, um, a challenge However, allowing WiiUs to control turrets on big ships could be hilarious. Same sort of thing for the MS / Sony consoles, it may be that getting the full space bit running ok with only controllers as inputs just isn't really possible, but getting the FPS portion onto them would be quite easy.

if you look at job openings for elite dangerous they have one for cross platform programming as a job title.
<redacted>

 

[Hrv123]

...<redacted>.

Lots of hippies is buying this game
Its the damn hipsters...

On topic:
1000000 copies sold in first 7 days. After that sales are going to explode. How much? Depends on whats going on with SC, VR, did it snow in North America that week, did Scotland go independent, value of pound, and so on.

 

[gripped]

Two extremes

The game never gets many new players after launch and remains a niche game for the hardcore of players. After one or two expansions the game still fails to draw in significant numbers and development stops. Unless Frontier go under the game is still playable many years later due to the wise decision to use p2p for much of the networking.

The game is massively successful on launch and each subsequent expansion brings in many more players. Eventually the 'buzz' becomes so big that 6 o'clock TV news stations are talking about the game a la WOW. "I lost my husband to the Eranin defence force", "My 13 year old plays 27 hours a day and will only speak to me in Thargoid". DB is made Lord DB and people reminisce about the beta, before release, when all you could do was fly a spaceship.

Somewhere in between. I don't know, neither do you, or frontier.
But I hope for something more towards the latter.

 

[Kemo]

I am continually surprised when I read some of the comments posted against the YouTube vids people make - only this morning I was watching a 'first look Beta playthru' and the number of comments saying things like "I loved Elite on the [insert 8bit machine], didn't even realise they were making another one - this looks fantastic"

Clearly the marketing is starting to gain traction (noticed this on Gamspot on Friday) and the streams, YouTube clips etc are, for the most part, a great positive source of advertising, but the game is still very much a niche entity, but that doesn't mean the sales figures won't be impressive, they just won't be close to any high success AAA title released predominantly on the consoles, but in reality, do they even need to be?

I'm sure the FD shareholders and finance department have an expectation for the sales figures, and I hope they exceed those and then some.

If we get everything that has been outlined in the DDA and the expansions, surely anyone with a passing interest in gaming would want to check this baby out!

 

[Dashing Blade]

Imo continued development can only be financed by a steady income stream which these days is all about micro-transactions.

However that model only really works in a heavily PvP environment (take a look at how much money World Of Tanks rakes in) where, in effect, you're buying bragging rights.

Bottom line . . . a steady income stream is required but I can't see how they can successfully monetise the current model.

 

[Toscaner]

Imo continued development can only be financed by a steady income stream which these days is all about micro-transactions.

However that model only really works in a heavily PvP environment (take a look at how much money World Of Tanks rakes in) where, in effect, you're buying bragging rights.

Bottom line . . . a steady income stream is required but I can't see how they can successfully monetise the current model.

once upon a time people made expansions and then other people bought those expansions
micro-transactions are not necessary for game development (although sometimes a useful addition)

 

[MiNi]

1) everyone who wants it already got it.

2) further money will only come from micro transactions and releasing expansions.

3) More than 100.000 accounts is extremely unrealistic.

4) the CoD, WoT and DOTA masses will stick with what they have.

5) this is my opinion as a professional gaming analyst.

My own fears exactly, that those interested already got it.
Some whohave not heard about it who played original elite will offcause
also want it, but that will not add many more players.
What's needed is to bring new blood in and steer the FPS generation
away from the FPS games and show them eliteD hoping it's not
scaring them away with it's "complexity"
But the issue is to spread the word, and for FD and have well placed adds videos etc when it comes out to boost sales.

Essential is for those who already got it is to show it off to all gamers
that comes by. Word of mouth reccomodation is bound to bring a lot of new
players in, thats how i been introduced to many new games.

 

[davelister]

At least here i can Fly everything when i have the Money in EVE you need at lest 3 Month bevor you can do much and what i Really hate you dont need no Flying skills

EVE will suffer a few customers
Star Citzien
ED
and the Aquanox 2015 will get a few!!

 

[Cmdr Eagleboy]

The MAC OS version is a stated streatch goal and I would think that would annoy an awful lot of people.

Given the very bad press that Peter Molyneaux has been given over using Godus kickstarter money to develop the game for mobile it would be rather rash for another developer to even try moving the goalposts.

Ignore this PS4 troll

Few newsletters ago FD already said they started work on porting to Mac. So nothing stop this now