Frontier works very hard
- Thread starter Patrick_68000
- Start date
Speak for yourself. I can clearly see the game is progressing. I don't need FD to spell out a timetable for me and to whisper sweet schedules in my ear on a weekly basis.
They've done great work to date, I have no reason to doubt they'll continue. Will they miss targets? Probably, nobody's perfect.
Now if they stop delivering game and start making TV shows, selling ships and making stretch goals, then I'll start worrying.
Good metatheurgist. They are producing our dream game...and we are lucky it's also theirs.
They are very focused.
Viajero
Volunteer Moderator
Totally agree.
FDEV has to cater for the interests and expectations of a few key other stakeholders in this project, not just us backers.
Namely shareholders and creditors.
Why some think that FDEV should need to start giving time and content estimates in a more frequent basis or with longer horizons and therefore exposing itself to a much higher risk of not meeting those is beyond me. There is much more at stake in those than just backers expectations and needs.
FDEV needs to balance the need for time/content delivery estimates among all 3 key stakeholders (backers, shareholders and creditors). Expectations by each of those 3 groups have to be managed differently, and the rhythm of updates and the way FDEV announces upcoming deadlines/content ONLY when they are completely sure (or almost) is a very reasonable balance for all 3 methinks.
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Of course, during the IPO, Frontier officially declared that ED will not be subject to requirements of shareholders. And ED will be developed as David wants, and only David
There was many reactions on the forums when Frontier announced its entry into the stock exchange. This was an opportunity for Frontier to ensure at the backers that the development of ED remains completely independent. Just find the thread in the forums ...
Viajero
Volunteer Moderator
DB can do as he pleases of course, he is his own boss. But that is hardly the issue:
The community "may" forgive him if he delays things. But the market reaction is not so clear cut for shareholders and /or creditors though.
A) Shareholders. DB doing as he pleases does NOT mean FDEV share price will stay the same after he does as he pleases. Especially if what he does means that he delays the game and/or there are deferred or loss revenues compared to expected launch date.
Deferred revenues will probably lead to a loss of share value. And share price trending down is not good news for FDEV in general. For many reasons.
B) Creditors. You do not mention creditors either. FDEV opened up revolving credit facilities with bank(s) also about the same time FDEV initiated the IPO. Those creditors will need to be paid back. With interest. If the game is delayed that will probably mean deferred revenues for FDEV and therefore it may point to difficulties to pay back debt.
Worst case scenario A) and B) above can also compund each other eventually in a death spiral: Release delays meay lead to creditors lending money at higher interest rates due to the perceived higher risk, which in turn will limit the company profits, which in turn will reduce its market value (share price down) and which in turn may impose further financing restrictions by lenders etc etc.
Clearer now?
FDEV probably has some margin of maneuver for some delays, but as you can see that decission can not rest solely on the backer´s community expectations and good will / patience. And DB is not really independent from the moment he went to the stock and credit markets aswell for additional funding.
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What debt ? Frontier has always said that the game is funded by the backers of Kickstarter (kickstarter, old app backer and new store). ED is only a small part of Frontier. The shareholders are currently especially interested in the other games of Frontier and the Cobra engine. The development of ED and its financing does not concern the shareholders at this time. I repeat, Frontier explicitly stated that ED is totally independent of the shareholders. At least until the release of the retail version. When Frontier will decide. Perhaps when the development of planetary landings will begin, the shareholders will be concerned ?
Of course they are in crunch mode. They have to pull everything together, and it is usually hardest part.
Regarding pressure I feel they have their own deadline they want to hit, and that's end of 2014 for retail release - and those can be easily multiple reasons why they feel so. For example, small developer don't have big chance to push out game for holiday sales that often, especially with hype built up to that point. David knows they have to hit that line.
Will they or won't they? We are about to see.
People entertain themselves with ideas how much FD has under the roof already and what's still missing. However, I mostly care that we get right networking and we nail all major gameplay things. Everything else can come gamma for all I care. Is it doable? It is. Will it be close one? Sure.
So good luck to everyone at FD working hard on getting things right and providing new content.
Regarding pressure I feel they have their own deadline they want to hit, and that's end of 2014 for retail release - and those can be easily multiple reasons why they feel so. For example, small developer don't have big chance to push out game for holiday sales that often, especially with hype built up to that point. David knows they have to hit that line.
Will they or won't they? We are about to see.
People entertain themselves with ideas how much FD has under the roof already and what's still missing. However, I mostly care that we get right networking and we nail all major gameplay things. Everything else can come gamma for all I care. Is it doable? It is. Will it be close one? Sure.
So good luck to everyone at FD working hard on getting things right and providing new content.
I doubt it is as black-and-white as that.
ED is currently flagship for FDEV. Its (FDEV) financial situation will greatly depend how ED does.
btw good info to read is just released Frontier annual report
http://www.frontier.co.uk/docs/files/Frontier Developments - Year end results - 4 September 2014 Final.pdf
Spectre Alpha
Banned
Ditto. I am concerned that Michael is burning himself out
lol then maybe he should find other work.
nats
Banned
Its a hard world out there at the moment, they do what they do to survive. It isnt just the matter of producing a good game for the fans. Its also the matter of getting the product out so they can get the money coming in on other subsequent products. From now until release is essentially a money-free zone for them (other than the peanuts they get from the skins). They will be well aware of that. They want this thing done. But at the same time they also want it done well. They have a difficult few months ahead of them and a lot to pack into the game yet. The back is broken on the gameplay but there are loads of little bits and pieces to add in yet before it becomes a fully playable game.
Viajero
Volunteer Moderator
This debt:
http://www.frontier.co.uk/docs/files/Frontier_Developments-Year_end_results-14_November_2013.pdf
Page 1: £3.0m provided by revolving credit facility
That was in 2012-2013. FDEV will need to pay its debts like any other company going to the financing markets. With interest. It is also possible that they may have incurred additional debt this year to add to those £3 MM. And some may have been paid already.
ED is not a small part of FDEV. It is probably the largest product of their portfolio both in terms of capital allocation and potential revenues in the coming years.
Regarding shareholders it seems you still do not realize that the issue here is not DB doing whatever he wants, but how that will affect FDEV share price.
Shareholders do not need to tell DB anyhting. They can simply sell their shares, pushing the price down, and moving on. The fact DB has a large chunk will help no doubt but it is hard to know if it will be enough.
If DB delays the game that means FDEV will have deferred revenues. Deferred revenues is often not too good news for shareholders because they will typically not receive any dividends and because that means the company will have less profits during the usual time horizons used for company valuations preventing the share price to move up due to market interest. This in turn will most likely lead to some shareholders to sell their shares which will push share prices down, affecting negatively and in turn the financing markets (as I pointed out above) and also probably deterring new investors that could have helped potentially FDEV develop other products or even ED expansions for example.
No one, not even FDEV, is really independent from the shareholders or the credit markets. DB is the CEO and will do as he pleases, that is his prerrogative, but the share price and credit conditions may indeed be impacted as I described above by all he does, including decissions about delays. And both new potential investors and creditors will take good notice.
The actual size of the impact is difficult to predict but delaying the launch of the game will for sure not push the share price up, I assure you.
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Spectre Alpha
Banned
clear, but only a small part of the story, you have a very limited understanding of how things work.
I'm not saying that the shareholders are not concerned with the sales amount realised by ED. They will receive their dividends when David decides to sell the retail version. I think that there was of specific clauses in the partnership. Do not forget that these are few big investors. Not of thousands of small shareholders anonymous
Viajero
Volunteer Moderator
Fair enough. Not trying to pretend otherwise. Simply trying to clarify how DB is not really independent. Which I think is not necessarily a bad thing actually.
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