General / Off-Topic Some numbers and a shortage

[Robin of Spiritwood]

Hey Robin, is this corona virus strain likely to be a bat crossover? There's a bunch of weird conspiracy junk floating around on this bug.

No idea. You'd have to know 'bout bat viruses to answer that. "Contagion" movie stuff.

I was doing high intensity training to get adapted to hypoxia for the coming infection, but screwed up my back. Fast deadlifts are an idiot move.

So now I'm mostly sleeping on Tramacet.

The one thing useful to stop getting sick, time off from the unit. Funny how that happened.

 

[Stigbob]

Hey Robin, is this corona virus strain likely to be a bat crossover? There's a bunch of weird conspiracy junk floating around on this bug.

I've heard (speculation) that the source is probably China's exotic live meat markets, lots of animals sharing their various infectious stuff cross-species in intensive low welfare/hygiene area's then onto humans via the dinner plate.

 

[schmicknick]

...tracking the notes. Thanks for the updates, Cmdrs.

As an aside... ever read Frank Herbert's book, White Plague?
That is a remarkable story of contagion, I thought.
(And it seemed to me that the state of affairs with women at the end might very well explain the genesis of the Bene Gesserit order. - not that that isn't probably covered in lore somehwere I don't know about )

 

[WeComeInPeace]

I tried to look at the data again, from a different perspective. The new cases discovered each day doesn't follow the original exponential growth function anymore. This graph shows the number of new cases divided by the number of known cases from the day before (converted to percent):

If the graph was showing a true exponential growth, then the points would form a horizontal line, with all datapoints having the same value.

It's still too early to say how this will develop, and also remember that the numbers are the official known cases (Source WHO). If the real number of cases is higher, as described by several studies, then the true ratio of new cases would be considerably lower than ~20%.

The graph might stabilize at 20%, which would indicate an exponentially growing epidemic, but the lower the value, the slower it spreads in the early stages, meaning that you'd have more time to react, because let's face it, this is more about being reactive than proactive right now.

 

[Chris Simon]

I tried to look at the data again, from a different perspective. The new cases discovered each day doesn't follow the original exponential growth function anymore. This graph shows the number of new cases divided by the number of known cases from the day before (converted to percent):

View attachment 161065
If the graph was showing a true exponential growth, then the points would form a horizontal line, with all datapoints having the same value.

It's still too early to say how this will develop, and also remember that the numbers are the official known cases (Source WHO). If the real number of cases is higher, as described by several studies, then the true ratio of new cases would be considerably lower than ~20%.

The graph might stabilize at 20%, which would indicate an exponentially growing epidemic, but the lower the value, the slower it spreads in the early stages, meaning that you'd have more time to react, because let's face it, this is more about being reactive than proactive right now.

That's an interesting metric.
For some reason I still don't fully believe the Chinese government and I think the number of cases might be an order of magnitude higher than the official numbers (even after we subtract people who are infected and simply don't know it themselves or the officials don't know about them.

So another way of looking at things would be that the real number of the infected is some nebulous number nobody can know. It may be increasing exponentially, it may have already peaked,...
In which case your graph simply represents a steady rate of discovering new patients. Which is a good thing if the total number of infected is rising at a similar or lower rate and a bad thing if the number of infected is rising more quickly.

But yeah. How bad this epidemic really was... We are only going to know in a hindsight. Unless China decides they're never going to give us numbers.

 

[Chris Simon]

Edit: Aw, he took the video down, for some reason.
I mean, there were some mistakes (he misspoke a couple of times and read some of the numbers wrong) but overall it was a great overview piece. I hope he's going to re-upload or make a new one.


Also - Dr. John Campbell has a new update and thoughts.

 

[WeComeInPeace]

I like Dr. Campbell's videos. Factual, low key and very informative in an easily understandable language. Also he is the first person I've heard mention that all these numbers and models are real human tragedies.

 

[Manticore]

And if possible, avoid the public toilets.

Maybe avoiding the human race and civilisation entirely. Where is my desert island selection?

 

[WeComeInPeace]

Looking at the official data from China, I've tried to calculate the mortality rate in the different cities under quarantine. The rate varies significantly from city to city?

Source:

2019–20 coronavirus pandemic - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Chris Simon]

Looking at the official data from China, I've tried to calculate the mortality rate in the different cities under quarantine. The rate varies significantly from city to city?

View attachment 161159
Source:

2019–20 coronavirus pandemic - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

I think that's quite understandable as the virus "kills" by leaving the body open to other infections. Maybe some of the cities have better air, better hospitals,...

 

[Robin of Spiritwood]

What's the air quality like in Chinese cities these days?
That's got to be a major factor in pneumonia survival.

 

[Chris Simon]

What's the air quality like in Chinese cities these days?
That's got to be a major factor in pneumonia survival.

Yes, my thoughts exactly. It's winter there, so I suppose the inversion and smog could be a real deal, there.

 

[Robin of Spiritwood]

Feb 4th 2020
Generally it is best to avoid information sources that are dubious.
However sometimes there can be entertainment value in some of them. This guy has doomsday videos on everything( mostly finance stuff) but has found a new topic.

"Nothing to see here."

Source: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=yV6IEdPc7AY


There are a few points of interest, like the model generated curve and the Chinese figures agreement ( which might be because the model is good?), but the striking thing is his death rate data. About 4 minutes in from the start of the video.

It IS suspicious that Chinese provinces have >700 infected cases and zero deaths, but Hong Kong gets 15 cases and somebody dies. Or the Phillipines gets less than 5 cases, and another person dies.

 

[Chris Simon]

Yeah, I've heard the bio-weapon conspiracy regarding HK and whatnot, but honestly, not even Chinese government is that reckless, I hope.
It would be like using C4 for self-defense in a knife fight.

 

[Robin of Spiritwood]

Yeah, I've heard the bio-weapon conspiracy regarding HK and whatnot, but honestly, not even Chinese government is that reckless, I hope.
It would be like using C4 for self-defense in a knife fight.

It makes no sense at all, I agree.

 

[WeComeInPeace]

Feb 4th 2020
Generally it is best to avoid information sources that are dubious.
However sometimes there can be entertainment value in some of them. This guy has doomsday videos on everything( mostly finance stuff) but has found a new topic.

"Nothing to see here."

Source: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=yV6IEdPc7AY


There are a few points of interest, like the model generated curve and the Chinese figures agreement ( which might be because the model is good?), but the striking thing is his death rate data. About 4 minutes in from the start of the video.

It IS suspicious that Chinese provinces have >700 infected cases and zero deaths, but Hong Kong gets 15 cases and somebody dies. Or the Phillipines gets less than 5 cases, and another person dies.

Chris Martenson is a special character, with a horrible taste in music, but I think he's pretty spot on with his predictions about the global economy, energy and ecology. He used to be a CEO of some large company, but left and became a mild form of prepper, when he found out about the general state of the planet. He also holds a PhD in neurotoxicology. His videos are probably considered alarmist by some people, but honestly, I've done most of his calculations myself, and neither I nor anyone else I know of has been able to prove him wrong. On the contrary I've been able to prove that at least some of his predictions align pretty well with how the World works and available official data. His idea about energy shortage leading to a financial collapse sooner or later, is just simple facts based on physics and math. I see the exact same in my own models, and it's not something Martenson discovered himself. The Club of Rome said something similar in the 1970s. Martenson is also a big fan of Albert Bartlett and M King Hubbert, and I 100% with him on those.

He's also still very much a business man, and AFAIK he owns a company that sells gold. That does seem suspicious, considering that he's somewhat considered a doomsday prophet, but if I had money right now, I would definitely not by stocks, but gold, and if I was rich, I'd make a company selling gold or some other limited resource. To me it seems that he's trying to make money, but mostly based on what he knows.

I'm not so sure about his predictions on the coronavirus though. It seems to me that he's cherry picking, and right now the development of the epidemic is pretty easy to predict a few days ahead, but once you get further into the future, no model that I've been able to make seems to be accurate. I agree with him, that the data from China should be taken with a grain of salt, but China can't manipulate numbers in many countries outside China. One death in Hong Kong is very weak data to base any predictions on. Especially when they become slightly conspiratorial. The fact of the matter is, that we have ~215 cases outside China now (EDIT: QUESTIONABLE NUMBER), and 2 deaths. That's roughly a mortality rate of 1%, but it could very well be higher or lower. Probably lower, because many cases seem to be not registered, leading to the assumption, that the cases we know of, are the ones where people get complications.

Edit: I decided to delete the graph, since it turned out the last datapoint was from a different source than the rest of the data I'd used, and the WHO data is typically delayed ~1 day.

2nd Edit: The difference seems to be caused by some sources counting Hong Kong, Taiwan and Macau as "outside mainland China", whereas WHO count them as part of the Chinese total.

 

[Arry]

What's the air quality like in Chinese cities these days?
That's got to be a major factor in pneumonia survival.

Getting better and better, as there is no traffic moving.

 

[Arry]

Feb 4th 2020
Generally it is best to avoid information sources that are dubious.
However sometimes there can be entertainment value in some of them. This guy has doomsday videos on everything( mostly finance stuff) but has found a new topic.

"Nothing to see here."

Source: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=yV6IEdPc7AY


There are a few points of interest, like the model generated curve and the Chinese figures agreement ( which might be because the model is good?), but the striking thing is his death rate data. About 4 minutes in from the start of the video.

It IS suspicious that Chinese provinces have >700 infected cases and zero deaths, but Hong Kong gets 15 cases and somebody dies. Or the Phillipines gets less than 5 cases, and another person dies.

I would say that the number of deaths in China, is a lot higher than published. Logically, many are just dying at Home, thus the numbers are not correct.

 

[Patrick_68000]

I would say that the number of deaths in China, is a lot higher than published. Logically, many are just dying at Home, thus the numbers are not correct.

Indeed and also I have trouble imagining the Chinese government proponent of transparency.

For official figures this morning we are approaching 500 dead and 24,000 contaminations.

 

[WeComeInPeace]

Updated version of the graph I posted earlier including today's data. It seems that the curve is flattening out somewhere around 20% growth per day, which indicates a doubling time of 3.5 days. Still a little early to say for sure. However, a flat curve is an indication of the epidemic still spreading with exponential growth.

Assuming this is correct, and that this has been the case since 30th of January after a turbulent and chaotic start of the epidemic, the revised model now looks like this:

Date		Day	Cases reported	New cases	Cases Model
16/Jan​	Thursday	1​	45​		659​
17/Jan​	Friday	2​	62​	17​	799​
18/Jan​	Saturday	3​	121​	59​	968​
19/Jan​	Sunday	4​	198​	77​	1174​
20/Jan​	Monday	5​	291​	93​	1422​
21/Jan​	Tuesday	6​	440​	149​	1724​
22/Jan​	Wednesday	7​	581​	141​	2089​
23/Jan​	Thursday	8​	830​	249​	2531​
24/Jan​	Friday	9​	1297​	467​	3068​
25/Jan​	Saturday	10​	1985​	688​	3718​
26/Jan​	Sunday	11​	2741​	756​	4506​
27/Jan​	Monday	12​	4593​	1852​	5461​
28/Jan​	Tuesday	13​	6065​	1472​	6618​
29/Jan​	Wednesday	14​	7818​	1753​	8020​
30/Jan​	Thursday	15​	9692​	1874​	9720​
31/Jan​	Friday	16​	11791​	2099​	11664​
01/Feb​	Saturday	17​	14411​	2620​	13997​
02/Feb​	Sunday	18​	17238​	2827​	16796​
03/Feb​	Monday	19​	20438​	3200​	20156​
04/Feb​	Tuesday	20​	24505​	4067​	24187​

Edit: If the model is correct, then the predictions for the next couple of days are:

05/Feb​	Wednesday	21​			29024​
06/Feb​	Thursday	22​			34829​
07/Feb​	Friday	23​			41795​
08/Feb​	Saturday	24​			50153​
09/Feb​	Sunday	25​			60184​
10/Feb​	Monday	26​			72221​
11/Feb​	Tuesday	27​			86665​
12/Feb​	Wednesday	28​			103998​