Don’t need to be a weapon, just something that wasn’t under control.
We can speculate all day long, however that facts remain that it’s plausible that it originated from a lab in the region.
General / Off-Topic Some numbers and a shortage
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We can speculate all day long, however that facts remain that it’s plausible that it originated from a lab in the region.
Nobody develops an infectious bioweapon without parallel protections to deploy in their own population. No pills. QED: natural disaster. Edit: is more likely, that is. Nothing is for certain.
Case fatality rate 2.3 %, 50 times worse than influenza, according to Pasteur Institute.
Critical case rate 5%
Est. Population at risk 60% (children excluded?)
Total human population 8 billion
5% of 60% is 3% critical illness in human population
3% of 8 billion is 240 million. Needing ICU care.
Not enough beds, O2, machines, nurses, etc,
And of course, no proven medicines. Not that the volume of medicine could possibly be produced anyway when China is shut down.
Hubei province hospital director died yesterday from it. You can imagine the resources he had access to. You may well wonder what to do now, given the fact that the infection control folks are reduced to finger crossing and saying it hasn't happened YET. Because the incubation is up to 24 days, and 42% are asymptomatic. See, that iceberg is underwater right now. Tick tock.
Internal Chinese numbers are probably meaningless now. The Japanese, Singapore , etc story is going to be more useful.
Iran has 2 dead ones, out of the blue. Implying that there must be at least 100 or so other cases, but their Health Minister declares that there are no more cases, which is the difference between logic and wishful faith. He's incompetent, put him on ignore. The virus sure will.
No connection with these cases to China. It is therefore in the general global population. On planes, trains and automobiles. Ships too.
If it's in Iran in the hundred(s), where else could it be lurking? Here?
I'm sick, by the way.
Sore throat, fever, cough. Started this evening. Somewhat ahead of schedule. It has exceeded my calculated estimate. That bodes ill for all of us.
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All the way from China to Iran You can imagine
You are sick, this is very sad to hear. I hope now, that you will concentrate on number one. Do what you have to do and get yourself better again. I am not sure, but in many cases of illness, the state of mind, can help, or be the killer. Stay positive and keep up the fight, for your own sake.
Nobody develops an infectious bioweapon without parallel protections to deploy in their own population. No pills. QED: natural disaster. Edit: is more likely, that is. Nothing is for certain.
Case fatality rate 2.3 %, 50 times worse than influenza, according to Pasteur Institute.
Critical case rate 5%
Est. Population at risk 60% (children excluded?)
Total human population 8 billion
5% of 60% is 3% critical illness in human population
3% of 8 billion is 240 million. Needing ICU care.
Not enough beds, O2, machines, nurses, etc,
And of course, no proven medicines. Not that the volume of medicine could possibly be produced anyway when China is shut down.
Hubei province hospital director died yesterday from it. You can imagine the resources he had access to. You may well wonder what to do now, given the fact that the infection control folks are reduced to finger crossing and saying it hasn't happened YET. Because the incubation is up to 24 days, and 42% are asymptomatic. See, that iceberg is underwater right now. Tick tock.
Internal Chinese numbers are probably meaningless now. The Japanese, Singapore , etc story is going to be more useful.
Iran has 2 dead ones, out of the blue. Implying that there must be at least 100 or so other cases, but their Health Minister declares that there are no more cases, which is the difference between logic and wishful faith. He's incompetent, put him on ignore. The virus sure will.
No connection with these cases to China. It is therefore in the general global population. On planes, trains and automobiles. Ships too.
If it's in Iran in the hundred(s), where else could it be lurking? Here?
I'm sick, by the way.
Sore throat, fever, cough. Started this evening. Somewhat ahead of schedule. It has exceeded my calculated estimate. That bodes ill for all of us.
It is probably something else? (Everybody says that, eh?)
We can't get it tested definitively, but I can do some of the subsidiary things. Symptoms are mild.
I officially informed work that there is a potential risk of spread. But there isn't another doctor available during the Carnival weekend. so I'll be working with whatever masks etc we can muster, and we are all just going to hope for the best.
There are going to be a good half million people from all over the world in close contact on the streets for 4 days. Relatively speaking, one man with a sniffle is not a big risk to the public.
Take care Robin, and get well soon. I think we're all anxious, seeing ghosts. I've had a strange feeling of something sneaking up on me, but it's my imagination. And yes, everybody say that, but it might be because most people are scared.
I agree that the consequences of this potentially going global are frightening, but hopefully at least 80% of the cases will be mild. We don't really know, and not knowing is perhaps what scares us the most. The Chinese data after they've switched back to PCR tests are no longer reliable, but honestly, I believe they haven't been reliable for weeks. However, we start to have a better idea of what is going on outside China, at least in the countries that dare report their cases. There's the economy and the stigmatization that some people fear more than the disease.
Looking at the international numbers, they don't look too promising, but that's primarily due to the F-up with the cruise ship in Japan. That was handled in a very bad way, and now those cases are more than half of the total cases outside China. I wasn't there, so I'm not in a position to blame anyone, but even basic understanding of the problem seems to have been absent, if crew members were seen eating lunch together wearing protective gloves etc.
Those cases skew the numbers somewhat, and probably will, even more in the coming days, because the disease seems to be much more serious the older you are, and let's face it, most passengers onboard a cruise ship aren't young. Being rather old myself, I try and focus on the adjacent point being that for unknown reasons the virus seems to avoid the children and the young ones.
I agree that the consequences of this potentially going global are frightening, but hopefully at least 80% of the cases will be mild. We don't really know, and not knowing is perhaps what scares us the most. The Chinese data after they've switched back to PCR tests are no longer reliable, but honestly, I believe they haven't been reliable for weeks. However, we start to have a better idea of what is going on outside China, at least in the countries that dare report their cases. There's the economy and the stigmatization that some people fear more than the disease.
Looking at the international numbers, they don't look too promising, but that's primarily due to the F-up with the cruise ship in Japan. That was handled in a very bad way, and now those cases are more than half of the total cases outside China. I wasn't there, so I'm not in a position to blame anyone, but even basic understanding of the problem seems to have been absent, if crew members were seen eating lunch together wearing protective gloves etc.
Those cases skew the numbers somewhat, and probably will, even more in the coming days, because the disease seems to be much more serious the older you are, and let's face it, most passengers onboard a cruise ship aren't young. Being rather old myself, I try and focus on the adjacent point being that for unknown reasons the virus seems to avoid the children and the young ones.
Iran confirms three more coronavirus cases
Authorities shut down schools in city of Qom after three new cases detected in Iran.
Oh look. Cases in Iran. Amazing, that they appear if you look.
You certainly can overdose, suplements are that, suplements.
Sure but done it before and it works when you’re sick.
More than 2200 dead to date.
And dozens of infections have been reported in two hospitals in Beijing, and more than 400 in prisons across the country, including at least 200 in a single prison.
The World Health Organization is now calling on the international community to "strike hard" without delay against this virus which has infected more than 75000 people in China and 1100 elsewhere in the world.
And dozens of infections have been reported in two hospitals in Beijing, and more than 400 in prisons across the country, including at least 200 in a single prison.
The World Health Organization is now calling on the international community to "strike hard" without delay against this virus which has infected more than 75000 people in China and 1100 elsewhere in the world.
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South Korea begins to be affected (156 cases).
The mayor of Daegu (2.5 million inhabitants) invited the population to stay at home.
The mayor of Daegu (2.5 million inhabitants) invited the population to stay at home.
"Now is the time to attack the virus while it is still manageable," argued Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus (director of the World Health Organization).
"If we don't hit hard now by taking advantage of this window of shooting, we could be facing a serious problem."
"This virus is very dangerous. It is the number one public enemy and it is not treated as such at present", he expressed alarm.
"If we don't hit hard now by taking advantage of this window of shooting, we could be facing a serious problem."
"This virus is very dangerous. It is the number one public enemy and it is not treated as such at present", he expressed alarm.
I wonder how many nurses, doctors and hospital directors are killed by the seasonal flu?
The flu this winter in America, which has already killed 14000 people, is particularly deadly...
The current flu season, which is far from over, is particularly virulent this year. It has already sent more than 250 000 Americans to the hospital, with a higher proportion than usual of children and young adult.
A very high number of Americans, over 26 million, have been infected.
The current flu season, which is far from over, is particularly virulent this year. It has already sent more than 250 000 Americans to the hospital, with a higher proportion than usual of children and young adult.
A very high number of Americans, over 26 million, have been infected.
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Sure, I get that. Doesn't answer my question, though. Coronavirus seems to be stopping the clocks of health care providers in China, and I've never heard of the seasonal flu doing the same.The flu this winter in America, which has already killed 14000 people, is particularly deadly...
The current flu season, which is far from over, is particularly virulent this year. It has already sent more than 250 000 Americans to the hospital, with a higher proportion than usual of children and young adult.
A very high number of Americans, over 26 million, have been infected.
Plus, children seem to be disproportionately effected by it, and the pictures and witness reports directly from Wuhan don't add up to what the rest of the globe is seeing. There's more to the story in China, which is why they're determined to keep outside observers such as the CDC and WHO as far away as possible.
It's true that I've seen some "leaks" that suggested over 50k deaths in China. Which would mean two things.
1. they are way better at hiding things than we thought
2. they did AMAZING job with the quarantine
Don't know what do you mean by children being disproportionately affected, though. From the info we have, the SEVERITY of the illness is tied to age, meaning that children and people under 30 mostly only have mild symptoms while people over 70 has severe illness and death ratio of over 50%.
But the virus spreads across the generations quite fairly.
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