General / Off-Topic Some numbers and a shortage
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The life is beautiful.They are claiming it’s under control and that they got a cure, so soon everything is back to normal right? RIGHT?
BTW I’m much better now, so my home treatment is working
They are claiming it’s under control and that they got a cure, so soon everything is back to normal right? RIGHT?
BTW I’m much better now, so my home treatment is working
Or you are as strong as a horse, either way, good!
My wife tells me I’m sometimes stubborn as a donkey, does that count?
Are we safe now?...
www.news18.com
Wuhan Woman With No Coronavirus Symptoms Infects 5 Relatives Revealing New Extent of Challenge
The case study, published in the Journal of the American Medical Association, offered clues about how the coronavirus is spreading, and suggested why it may be difficult to stop.
www.news18.com
We knew asymptomatic patients can spread the virus almost from the start. But yeah, I agree that this virus uses ALL the dirty tricks.Are we safe now?...
Wuhan Woman With No Coronavirus Symptoms Infects 5 Relatives Revealing New Extent of Challenge
The case study, published in the Journal of the American Medical Association, offered clues about how the coronavirus is spreading, and suggested why it may be difficult to stop.
Keep flipping through weekend clips of financial news. Talking heads in suits who talk about puts and ratios, stochastics and options. These are the Great Forecasters, the gurus who tell the audience what to buy and sell, and what is going to likely happen.
None of them has a f-------g clue. Distinct lack of Medical realities. They know about Black October, not Black Death, so to speak.
Oh, you can smell the fear. But it is the wrong fear. Because these gurus are almost always wrong. They are the Larry Kudlows of, well , Larry Kudlows.
They are worried that the rigged market jig is up.
.
None of them has a f-------g clue. Distinct lack of Medical realities. They know about Black October, not Black Death, so to speak.
Oh, you can smell the fear. But it is the wrong fear. Because these gurus are almost always wrong. They are the Larry Kudlows of, well , Larry Kudlows.
They are worried that the rigged market jig is up.
.
Nothing I know of is truly random (even C14 has a distinctive half life), so "stochastic" is just another term we use to sound "clever" or "in control", even though stochastic basically means random which means "unknown". If you use enough of those fancy terms you'll end up in modern economics, basically without having any clue. They are about to realize that, but it would have been nice if that didn't happen during a pandemic.
Yes, that doesn't mean it's radiactive decay isn't random (it is).
Is it?
Look, I know that most people will say that it is, but if you disregard that for a moment, and think about the philosophical definition of "random", what does random (and thereby stochastic) really mean? Normally the answer would be non-predictable (using logic) or not showing a pattern. But that could be simply because we don't know how to explain it. The classical Three Body Problem quickly becomes very unpredictable, but it's 100% deterministic. Otherwise you couldn't simulate it like this:
It's extremely difficult to find something in nature that is random. You can find chaos, but chaos is deterministic, which is not random. You can't, to the best of my knowledge, generate randomness using math, and the RNG in a computer is only pseudorandom. For a dice to be truly random it has to be 100% perfectly balanced, and you have to throw it 100% randomly.
Trying to predict the Covid-19 using models is about as difficult as predicting the three bodies above, so I started thinking if I could trust using a deterministic model, or wether I had to use a stochastic one. That was when I started wondering if anything is random, and honestly I could only think of the radioactive decay.
But if that was truly random, then it should show no pattern, which is not what we see. C14 has a specific half life, and so does any other isotope we know of. So can we, considering our well known "ignorance", conclude that the decay is truly random? I don't think so. I've yet to see a proof that it is. My conclusion: I'll keep going with the deterministic model.
Is it?
Yes, you just don't understand why.
Because it is.
Which is not the case here.
Lol, the three body problem was solved well before you were born, that the solution is absolutely impractical is another issue.
And how is that relevant?
That is not what random means, in this context it just means the particular outcome is always uncertain no matter how stringent the conditions of your experiment are which is exactly what quantum mechanics state, you do not get concise predictions of when the atom decays, you only get a probability for when it decays, you then get the half-life based on this probability.
If you were to actually research what half life is and it's origin you would know that is completely irrelevant to your point.
Again, QM tells us that it is intrinsically impossible to know with certainty, it is not a product of our ignorance.
And your conclusion is wrong lol.
132 contaminations in Italy.
Postponed football matches.
A dozen cities in northern Italy are in quarantine on Sunday, with entry and exit bans.
Italy becomes the gateway to Europe ?
Postponed football matches.
A dozen cities in northern Italy are in quarantine on Sunday, with entry and exit bans.
Italy becomes the gateway to Europe ?
These quarantines were my primary reason for bulking way way up on groceries and other essentials. Imagine being in a city thats locked down by the military for an indefinite period of time and only having a few days worth of food in the pantry? Scary stuff.132 contaminations in Italy.
Postponed football matches.
A dozen cities in northern Italy are in quarantine on Sunday, with entry and exit bans.
Italy becomes the gateway to Europe ?
I know you do better than that
I know all the arguments, but it still doesn't answer my question. I know about uncertainty and QM, but whether something is truly random is still up for discussion I argue. You can't use our current understanding of QM to settle that. QM in itself is one giant mystery, with many interpretations. I'm not saying QM is wrong. It's one of the best verified theories in physics. Still we have problems like entanglement that conflicts with relativity theory. And RT is another of the welly verified theories. It's just that they can't both be true at the same time. I think we both know that. There are even interpretations of QM that are deterministic. De Broglie–Bohm theory - Wikipedia
The stochastic interpretation is just one of many. Let's leave it there. We won't agree and we're OT, which is my fault.
The problem is that if we all do that we don't use what we have efficiently, but I must admit that living in a city, I stacked up with a couple of kg of pasta the other day. And a glass of vitamin C.
I know you do better than that
De Broglie–Bohm theory - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
The stochastic interpretation is just one of many. Let's leave it there. We won't agree and we're OT, which is my fault.
Those theories certainly are in decline, you can thank Bell for that.
This is my SHTF post.
Got called out at 10 am for a " heart attack with fast pulse. " Was asleep, left immediately.
10:15am Started the case.
10:35am
Found Coronavirus, with classic X ray signs, elevated Troponin and LDH, complicated by a viral myocarditis in a man, smoker aged 54. Also, in heart failure, with a history of contact with traveller from Malaysia.
"Masks for everyone!"
"Oh doctor, we ran out yesterday." - aide.
₩¥£€
"Everybody out. Wash up. Find some masks. I will remain in the unit.."
Comms were down.
Couldn't get any consultant on the line. Or any anybody.
Ran out of expletives. Because I *%@#ing KNEW this would happen.
I got him on O2, started heart failure stuff IV, sent off bloods to get things like BNP and CRP that our lab can't do. The Chinese are using Moxiflox, so I subbed in Levoflox as the antibiotic for superinfection, dilated his airways with Ventolin, and his O2 came right back up. He ed out a couple litres, chest started to clear.
12 noon. Sugar dropping, fever coming back. My ribs ache. The aide catches me slumped against a wall, struggling to breathe again. I get some sugary coffee. Eat the dry rations in my bag. Huff some O2. She wants to do a chest XRay.
I decline. Don't want to see it. What if it looks like the patient's?
Contacted the only cardiologist still working Carnival Sunday, he's covering 3 private hospitals, has a real heart attack to fix, plus a pulmonary embolism to watch. Still, he made the time. Came in 20 minutes.
12:20 pm
Feeling strong again. Cook found some masks in the dialysis unit, so we all have those. Unit is staffed.
Consultant confirms diagnosis, of viral pneumonia, embolic stroke, viral myocarditis, heart failure and possible NSTEMI, based on ECG, bloods and efficient 5 minutes look at the case.
"We need an echo." He says,
"Sure"
Nobody can raise the tech on the phone. No echo for us, because he has the keys to the wing.
I call Admin at home. No answer.
12:40 pm
I drag him across to the hard copy XRay up on the viewbox. Because it's sort of cruical.
So he took one look at the X Ray and turned white.
"Looks like Coronavirus.", says I, Captain Bloody Obvious.
This conversation then did not take place.
"
" Get an ambulance, transfer to Casualty."
Well that figures, because we have no ventillators. Yes Ok. We reach the Public Hospital Chief at SFGH, warn him, and alert their Casualty.
12:50 Consultant informs family by phone. Departs.
12:55pm Efforts to contact Ambulance service fail. Nobody answers.
I want to live in Singapore.
Anywhere but this place at Carnival. Ok, not Wuhan.
We cannot move the case.
The aide settles in like Uhura glued to the comms. Hideous calypso music pounds from the city.
2:30 pm
We make contact, ambulance arrives. I chase the medics back, make them gear up. Short delay to move the case.
Just then, another case arrives. I know these people, and cannot put them near the contamination. Sotto voce, maybe you go to another place this time? We have to clean up a bit.
2:45 pm
On the way to warn the medics, I cough, ribs light up.
Feels like a giant fish hook. Aide tells me it looks like broken ribs and she really wants to X ray it. She's not wrong, either as I broke a bunch doing ring fighting in the past, and now they are complaining. I am old Batman, and we are losing. She brings me more coffee.
The young medics are scared. I tell them to follow protocols, get the rig bleached out, keep the man on oxygen. We are in it together, and it is deep. So they lean in.
"We have confirmed cases in the (redacted) Public Hospital" they tell me, whispering.
"Better test this one too."
Soca drums play in the wind. There is a faint smell of sweat, marijuana and ignorance. The party is ON. Half a million people. Nicky Minaj is singing live.
No news is good news.
3pm
Staff has left to bathe, change and clean up the unit. Spraying in progress.
I give in and go for the X ray. Because if it is bad I can't go home.
She helps me take off my stuff. Yeah, there's something here.
I'm too old for this. She's 25.
She shoots the shot.
3:15 pm.
Judgement day.
She looks at me. Nods. Steel drums play in the background. The ground vibrates from a million feet dancing.
4 pm
Disinfection complete.
I leave.
"How's that XRay, Doc?" Asks the Nurse in charge. He's in some scruffy mufti now.
" Like Superman."
Everybody laughs.
Got called out at 10 am for a " heart attack with fast pulse. " Was asleep, left immediately.
10:15am Started the case.
10:35am
Found Coronavirus, with classic X ray signs, elevated Troponin and LDH, complicated by a viral myocarditis in a man, smoker aged 54. Also, in heart failure, with a history of contact with traveller from Malaysia.
"Masks for everyone!"
"Oh doctor, we ran out yesterday." - aide.
₩¥£€
"Everybody out. Wash up. Find some masks. I will remain in the unit.."
Comms were down.
Couldn't get any consultant on the line. Or any anybody.
Ran out of expletives. Because I *%@#ing KNEW this would happen.
I got him on O2, started heart failure stuff IV, sent off bloods to get things like BNP and CRP that our lab can't do. The Chinese are using Moxiflox, so I subbed in Levoflox as the antibiotic for superinfection, dilated his airways with Ventolin, and his O2 came right back up. He ed out a couple litres, chest started to clear.
12 noon. Sugar dropping, fever coming back. My ribs ache. The aide catches me slumped against a wall, struggling to breathe again. I get some sugary coffee. Eat the dry rations in my bag. Huff some O2. She wants to do a chest XRay.
I decline. Don't want to see it. What if it looks like the patient's?
Contacted the only cardiologist still working Carnival Sunday, he's covering 3 private hospitals, has a real heart attack to fix, plus a pulmonary embolism to watch. Still, he made the time. Came in 20 minutes.
12:20 pm
Feeling strong again. Cook found some masks in the dialysis unit, so we all have those. Unit is staffed.
Consultant confirms diagnosis, of viral pneumonia, embolic stroke, viral myocarditis, heart failure and possible NSTEMI, based on ECG, bloods and efficient 5 minutes look at the case.
"We need an echo." He says,
"Sure"
Nobody can raise the tech on the phone. No echo for us, because he has the keys to the wing.
I call Admin at home. No answer.
12:40 pm
I drag him across to the hard copy XRay up on the viewbox. Because it's sort of cruical.
So he took one look at the X Ray and turned white.
"Looks like Coronavirus.", says I, Captain Bloody Obvious.
This conversation then did not take place.
"
No! You can't say that! "
"Why?"
"They'll close us down."
"But people will keep coming-"
"Viral pneumonia. Do NOT specify. "
"Why?"
"They'll close us down."
"But people will keep coming-"
"Viral pneumonia. Do NOT specify. "
" Get an ambulance, transfer to Casualty."
Well that figures, because we have no ventillators. Yes Ok. We reach the Public Hospital Chief at SFGH, warn him, and alert their Casualty.
12:50 Consultant informs family by phone. Departs.
12:55pm Efforts to contact Ambulance service fail. Nobody answers.
I want to live in Singapore.
Anywhere but this place at Carnival. Ok, not Wuhan.
We cannot move the case.
The aide settles in like Uhura glued to the comms. Hideous calypso music pounds from the city.
2:30 pm
We make contact, ambulance arrives. I chase the medics back, make them gear up. Short delay to move the case.
Just then, another case arrives. I know these people, and cannot put them near the contamination. Sotto voce, maybe you go to another place this time? We have to clean up a bit.
2:45 pm
On the way to warn the medics, I cough, ribs light up.
Feels like a giant fish hook. Aide tells me it looks like broken ribs and she really wants to X ray it. She's not wrong, either as I broke a bunch doing ring fighting in the past, and now they are complaining. I am old Batman, and we are losing. She brings me more coffee.
The young medics are scared. I tell them to follow protocols, get the rig bleached out, keep the man on oxygen. We are in it together, and it is deep. So they lean in.
"We have confirmed cases in the (redacted) Public Hospital" they tell me, whispering.
"Better test this one too."
Soca drums play in the wind. There is a faint smell of sweat, marijuana and ignorance. The party is ON. Half a million people. Nicky Minaj is singing live.
No news is good news.
3pm
Staff has left to bathe, change and clean up the unit. Spraying in progress.
I give in and go for the X ray. Because if it is bad I can't go home.
She helps me take off my stuff. Yeah, there's something here.
I'm too old for this. She's 25.
She shoots the shot.
3:15 pm.
Judgement day.
Lungs are spotlessly clear. Rib fractures are healed flawlessly.
"I'll show it to my wife."
"I'll show it to my wife."
She looks at me. Nods. Steel drums play in the background. The ground vibrates from a million feet dancing.
4 pm
Disinfection complete.
I leave.
"How's that XRay, Doc?" Asks the Nurse in charge. He's in some scruffy mufti now.
" Like Superman."
Everybody laughs.
So, it starts to look real bad as WHO keeps doing nothing and governments react in relaxed manner.
Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=02TwdiRUJTA
Robin you are in danger of breaking the golden rule and becoming a casualty yourself, start putting your own health first. You can't help anyone if you snuff it, prioritize your own welfare more highly next time.
<thousand yard stare>
While this is generally a sound advice, I'm afraid that if you try to tell it to doctors, firefighters or policemen, they will explain to you that it's not really that easy to adhere to.
I think most we can hope for is that Robin knows what he's doing and as he already endangered his life and will keep doing so, he also knows his limits.
:|
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