General / Off-Topic The safest place

[jasonbarron]

The lesson here is simple: If Cuomo suggested it, he would be a tough leader doing his part to save humanity, but if Trump suggests it, it's evil, corrupt and "a federal declaration of war." This is the schism we face in the world and it is terrible.

Cuomo on possible New York quarantine: 'I don't think it's legal' and it would be a 'federal declaration of war'

New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo said Saturday in an interview with CNN that he didn't believe a possible New York quarantine was legal and that it would be a "federal declaration of war" after President Donald Trump said he was considering such a tactic for the New York metro area as US coronavirus...

www.cnn.com

 

[Synkreto]

So you didn't watch the video I take it. It's a discussion with a professor of of medicine at Stanford University dissecting the available data. I know that you prefer to look at worldometer and just do your own projections, but you're a guy with no experience beyond caring for a sick family member while he's a professional in this field. Might want to check your ego and try to be open to new ideas. It might save your life.

I stopped watching the Video when the guy confused IFR with CFR, and mixed and confused cases of infection with SARS - CoV -2 with cases of CoViD -19 . You see, science generally is VERY specific and precise . Not every SARS - CoV -2 infection actually results in a CoViD -19 diagnosis . If you want numbers for SARS -CoV -2 infection, you talk about that . If you want numbers for CoViD -19 disease, you talk about THAT .You dont continously mix and confuse those 2, since they are not necessarily identical .

If anything, this piece is about IFR re SARS - CoV -2 infections, NOT CFR for CoViD -19 disease . But its hard to tell, since those terms continously get mixed up, and the whole thing gets spiced up with "death rate"...death rate is not a term when it comes to CFR, or IFR .

Oh, and Shapiro disqualified himself by accusing the WHO of "screwing it up[...]when they said there is no human to human transmission ."

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/donor-alert.pdf

Aren't you one of the people who advocate critical thinking ? I mean, what keeps you from educating yourselves on the matter, so that you can critically evaluate yourselves what the media tells you ?

 

[Synkreto]

The lesson here is simple: If Cuomo suggested it, he would be a tough leader doing his part to save humanity, but if Trump suggests it, it's evil, corrupt and "a federal declaration of war." This is the schism we face in the world and it is terrible.

Cuomo on possible New York quarantine: 'I don't think it's legal' and it would be a 'federal declaration of war'

New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo said Saturday in an interview with CNN that he didn't believe a possible New York quarantine was legal and that it would be a "federal declaration of war" after President Donald Trump said he was considering such a tactic for the New York metro area as US coronavirus...

www.cnn.com

Idk, I am not at all familiar with US laws regarding this, but is it possible the President does not have the authority to quarantine the State ? I mean, Cuomo clearly says "[...]as a Governor, I am not going to lock down the borders of my State[...]." This to me indicates if anything, measures like this one fall under the authority of the State Governor .

Seems to me a similar Problem as the "The President wants to open up the country again..."...you see, afaik he can not do that . Because, afaik, he has not closed down anything . It was Mayors, Governors etc. which did/decreed these things...and THEY are the ones who will reverse them .

 

[Ian Skippy]

I always get a chuckle from people who brush aside wave after wave of scientific consensus on every topic imaginable but when they find a single scientist that says something they enjoy hearing go way overboard with the full mentioning of title and employer at every opportunity. I never quite figured out who they are trying to convince: their audience or themselves.

 

[Robin of Spiritwood]

The most dreaded development.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/infant-becomes-youngest-coronavirus-death-in-illinois?ref=home

We are about to see if age protects the young when they have obesity as a confounder. 15-20% of the children in the states are obese.
This is the sort of thing we could do without ever finding out. So far the Euro-Asian experience has been good, so there's reason for hope.

The country with the most terrifying situation is India today. No question about that. It is about to explode there, and they are underresourced vs having an enormous population. Forget even the infection for now. The isolation measures are creating a potential famine on an astronomical scale.

India's poorest 'fear hunger may kill us before coronavirus'

Millions of Indians who rely on daily wages from jobs like cleaning risk running out of money.

www.bbc.com

 

[Synkreto]

Also, just f.y.i.:

Statement on the second meeting of the International Health Regulations (2005) Emergency Committee regarding the outbreak of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

Following the advice of the Emergency Committee today, WHO Director-General has declared the outbreak of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. In China, more than 7700 cases have been confirmed, and 170 people have died. There are 82 additional cases...

www.who.int

At January 30th, 2020, the Commitee said :

The Committee believes that it is still possible to interrupt virus spread, provided that countries put in place strong measures to detect disease early, isolate and treat cases, trace contacts, and promote social distancing measures commensurate with the risk.

STRONG MEASURES TO DETECT DISEASE EARLY . ISOLATE AND TREAT CASES . TRACE CONTACTS . JANUARY 30TH !

 

[jasonbarron]

I always get a chuckle from people who brush aside wave after wave of scientific consensus on every topic imaginable but when they find a single scientist that says something they enjoy hearing go way overboard with the full mentioning of title and employer at every opportunity. I never quite figured out who they are trying to convince: their audience or themselves.

As much as I get a chuckle when people like you suddenly reject science when it doesn't suit you purpose?

 

[jasonbarron]

I stopped watching the Video when the guy confused IFR with CFR, and mixed and confused cases of infection with SARS - CoV -2 with cases of CoViD -19 . You see, science generally is VERY specific and precise . Not every SARS - CoV -2 infection actually results in a CoViD -19 diagnosis . If you want numbers for SARS -CoV -2 infection, you talk about that . If you want numbers for CoViD -19 disease, you talk about THAT .You dont continously mix and confuse those 2, since they are not necessarily identical .

If anything, this piece is about IFR re SARS - CoV -2 infections, NOT CFR for CoViD -19 disease . But its hard to tell, since those terms continously get mixed up, and the whole thing gets spiced up with "death rate"...death rate is not a term when it comes to CFR, or IFR .

Oh, and Shapiro disqualified himself by accusing the WHO of "screwing it up[...]when they said there is no human to human transmission ."

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/donor-alert.pdf

Aren't you one of the people who advocate critical thinking ? I mean, what keeps you from educating yourselves on the matter, so that you can critically evaluate yourselves what the media tells you ?

Got it. I've always loved my conversations with all the scientists on this forum, experts of climate, epidemiology and societal policy, but this really takes the cake.

 

[jasonbarron]

Idk, I am not at all familiar with US laws regarding this, but is it possible the President does not have the authority to quarantine the State ? I mean, Cuomo clearly says "[...]as a Governor, I am not going to lock down the borders of my State[...]." This to me indicates if anything, measures like this one fall under the authority of the State Governor .

Seems to me a similar Problem as the "The President wants to open up the country again..."...you see, afaik he can not do that . Because, afaik, he has not closed down anything . It was Mayors, Governors etc. which did/decreed these things...and THEY are the ones who will reverse them .

All I've seen from you and a number of others is screaming that "we just don't get it!" and "we need to quit kidding ourselves look at the numbers and shut things down!" constantly accusing us of stupidity, lack of leadership etc for not looking at Italy and "taking things more seriously."

So now the president is finally looking seriously at following this advice...and you don't just whole heartedly support it. This is what I've been talking about for weeks, arguing with you guys. You don't want to fix things or try to work together, you want to use this to create as big a partisan divide as possible.

 

[Synkreto]

All I've seen from you and a number of others is screaming that "we just don't get it!" and "we need to quit kidding ourselves look at the numbers and shut things down!" constantly accusing us of stupidity, lack of leadership etc for not looking at Italy and "taking things more seriously."

So now the president is finally looking seriously at following this advice...and you don't just whole heartedly support it. This is what I've been talking about for weeks, arguing with you guys. You don't want to fix things or try to work together, you want to use this to create as big a partisan divide as possible.

All I am saying is: It is probable the President does NOT HAVE THE LEGAL AUTHORITY to quarantine/lockdown New York . I am even admitting in my post that I dont know, since I am not familiar with US law regarding this . Instead of going ad hominem, why don't you, as a US citizen, do us the courtesy and provide factual information about this ? I mean, do you KNOW whether the POTUS can actually, legally do this ?

Is what the Analyst says in the heading video of this piece

CDC issues travel advisory for New York, New Jersey, Connecticut

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention issued a travel advisory urging people in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut to "refrain from non-essential domestic travel" for the next two weeks.

edition.cnn.com

true, or not ? Do you know ?

 

[Deleted member 38366]

Guys, this isn't about who is right or wrong (on a personal level).

Those who "don't get it" (not pointing fingers at Forum individuals, just at best at the general audience of "this isn't so bad" or "it's all just media hype") will soon meet reality, one way or another.
Not a question of if but a question of when. How hard? Depends on where you live on the planet and personal precautions..

How long? Undetermined. Uncharted territory. Noone has ever been there.
Anything i.e. China now does is experimental and very likely based on Stochastic Modeling and extremely strict control. Either way, it's a very high risk, since they still have well over 1B in uninfected Biomass and it only takes a single infected slipping by to get things rolling again.

Either way, in the meantime our "BSL-4 escapee" is doing what it does best.

The first "1" in the Statistics here in Germany appeared on 27 Jan. On 27 Feb, it still read a mild 26. Now, another month later the number is reading 54.268.
If the numbers keep doubling at present rate (t=5.5), we'll cross 100.000 next week.

Best advice I still could give anyone with an open ear/mind : best to take care of reality - otherwise reality will take care of you.
And if there's one thing I learned in my life or observed on others... reality is - by far - the hardest, most unforgiving and brutal teacher one could possibly imagine. Nothing comes close.
Thus.... best not to stand in its way.

 

[Synkreto]

Let me tell you something you already know. The world ain't all sunshine and rainbows. It's a very mean and nasty place and I don't care how tough you are it will beat you to your knees and keep you there permanently if you let it. You, me, or nobody is gonna hit as hard as life. But it ain't about how hard ya hit. It's about how hard you can get hit and keep moving forward. How much you can take and keep moving forward. That's how winning is done!

[Rocky Balboa]

 

[[VR] optimal_909]

In general, while in the midst of a crisis, we tend to overestimate it's impact. I fondly remember 2008-2009 when many questioned the continued viability of the economy as we knew it.

 

[Ian Skippy]

As much as I get a chuckle when people like you suddenly reject science when it doesn't suit you purpose?

I neither rejected nor accepted anything, just shared my amusement at you suddenly going all formal about titles and universities. I have no comment about the video because I havent watched it yet, am playing online games with a mate. I am not particularly expecting much, given Ben Shapiro was the guy who convinced you Antifa was inevitably about to cause a US civil war before you became convinced WW3 was about to begin (any updates about the impending civil war or is that on hold?). But if you really want I can watch it later, no problem.

 

[Synkreto]

In general, while in the midst of a crisis, we tend to overestimate it's impact. I fondly remember 2008-2009 when many questioned the continued viability of the economy as we knew it.

Fiat money systems do not last . The current system is on life support since 2008-2009 the latest ( at least, that is when it became pretty obvious for everyone to see...) .

Some people have predicted the ultimate collapse for 2021 . In light of recent events...maybe they have been right ? We will see .

 

[Morbad]

In general, while in the midst of a crisis, we tend to overestimate it's impact. I fondly remember 2008-2009 when many questioned the continued viability of the economy as we knew it.

Just because something isn't viable doesn't mean it's going to collapse overnight.

 

[jasonbarron]

All I am saying is: It is probable the President does NOT HAVE THE LEGAL AUTHORITY to quarantine/lockdown New York . I am even admitting in my post that I dont know, since I am not familiar with US law regarding this . Instead of going ad hominem, why don't you, as a US citizen, do us the courtesy and provide factual information about this ? I mean, do you KNOW whether the POTUS can actually, legally do this ?

Is what the Analyst says in the heading video of this piece

CDC issues travel advisory for New York, New Jersey, Connecticut

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention issued a travel advisory urging people in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut to "refrain from non-essential domestic travel" for the next two weeks.

edition.cnn.com

true, or not ? Do you know ?

Now you're playing the "don't ad hom me!" card?

As far as your question goes: how would I know? I imagine you could round up 20 career constitutional lawyers and have 21 opinions, because this is uncharted waters for everybody and it's very complicated. But the question of legality is besides the point for people like us. The bottom line is that you and others have been awfully preachy about what we should do constantly acting as if we just don't get it but ohhhh you will soon enough! (see falcon's post a few above as a brief 'for instance') and setting the obnoxious condescension aside, the mantra has been "Shut it down! Take this seriously shut it down you fools!" In light of that you either, points of law aside, support draconian measures or you don't.

Out of curiosity, and this directed at all those who constantly heap condescension on American's as being clueless here, and this is not just for you but
for but Akenbosch, Ian falcon etc, anybody who shares that view, how many of you have front line experience with this? Aside from reading this on the news, how many of you are working in hospitals and dealing with the outbreak literally and factually first hand?

 

[Synkreto]

I neither rejected nor accepted anything, just shared my amusement at you suddenly going all formal about titles and universities. I have no comment about the video because I havent watched it yet, am playing online games with a mate. I am not particularly expecting much, given Ben Shapiro was the guy who convinced you Antifa was inevitably about to cause a US civil war before you became convinced WW3 was about to begin (any updates about the impending civil war or is that on hold?). But if you really want I can watch it later, no problem.

What is it you are playing may I ask ?

 

[Ian Skippy]

What is it you are playing may I ask ?

Normally it is PES2020, but since we both got xbox Gamepass for $1 its an evening of State of Decay 2 and Age of Empires II.

 

[Synkreto]

Normally it is PES2020, but since we both got xbox Gamepass for $1 its an evening of State of Decay 2 and Age of Empires II.

I am still playing PES19 - offline, as I enjoy managing and career modes with SportsGames - waiting for '20 to go on a really good Sale . Has it gone as bad with latest gameplay patch as people say ?