You sure you want to participate in disucssions about causes of death ?
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You sure you want to participate in disucssions about causes of death ?
Lockdown, what lockdown? Sweden's unusual response to coronavirus
While swathes of Europe are under lockdown, Sweden is allowing life to go on much as normal.
www.bbc.com
What happens in Bergamo, stays in Bergamo.
Nothing about pointing out the fact that an already outdated comparison of the still early stages of a rapidly accelerating COVID-19 pandemic vs. other, far more constant causes of death implies anything of the sort.
It's been six days since the data in your image was sourced and COVID-19s deaths have doubled in those six days. No other cause of death has grown by anywhere near that, proportionally. By the end of the year, COVID-19 deaths are not likely to be in the bottom half of that list.
Anyone or anything that implies looking at total deaths from the end of March can put COVID-19 in appropriate perspective.
You asked for it
It is difficult . I am trying for 30 minutes now to put my reasoning into english, and honestly, I am failing . It would be difficult to lay it out even in my native language .
Besides, the inconsistency is just tiresome. We went from demanding the then-potus should resign in 2014 for being held responsible for a disease outbreak that killed two people, to arguing 3000 people is 'really no big deal, when you put it into perspective.'. And you just know that since the White House as of today claims that "if we keep casualties under 200,000 we did a great job!" we're going to see a magical pivot from "it is all a big hoax!" to "a few thousands deaths aint a big deal by comparison!" to "This is the most amazing threat ever so a quarter million corpses is a stunning victory!".
On the bright side, we are now getting close to the point where finally everyone acknowledges how serious this is. Progress is progress.
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A few more aspects about the whole "cover-up" outrage...
Look at this paper from WHO ( it gives a timeline, though whether this is accurate I dont know ) :
On Dec. 31, the WHO Office China was informed of cases of pneumonia of unknwon origin is the first sentence .
For a Virologist, or Epidemiologist who learns this on Dec. 31, the clock starts ticking . From here on out, you know if it is a new Virus, you are behind . Doctor Li. has blown the whistle a few days ago .
A new Virus was isolated at Jan 7th .
That is the moment you know : it IS a new Virus .
What you do NOT have is :
What you do NOT know is : how does it transmit ? How contagious is it ? How deadly is it ?
You can not even reliably diagonse it, since the symptoms are so common with other diseases .
What you do know is : you do need to contain it .
Scenario : You immediately inform the general public, and the World, about the emergence of a new, unknown Virus of unknown contagiousness and deadliness, for which you do not have a vaccine, or effective medicine . What happens ?
PCR testing kit gets developed ( 1st in the World ) at Charite in Berlin, Jan. 16 2020 . From here on out, you know you have a chance to contain/mitigate .
Would you still think you would have that Chance if everyone and anyone who had the Chance had left the City in a monnumental Panic during the last 2, 3 weeks?
I am fully aware that this is extremely controversial . All I am trying here is to look at what happened from a standpoint of "What if it was not malfeasance by the CCP that lead to their handling of the Situation ?" .
I will be gratefull for any information, or argument, that doubts or questions the above . I am not interested in being right here, I am also not interested in absolving anyone . I am interested in "What happened ? How did it happen ? Why did it happen ?"
edit: text in Italics
Look at this paper from WHO ( it gives a timeline, though whether this is accurate I dont know ) :
On Dec. 31, the WHO Office China was informed of cases of pneumonia of unknwon origin is the first sentence .
For a Virologist, or Epidemiologist who learns this on Dec. 31, the clock starts ticking . From here on out, you know if it is a new Virus, you are behind . Doctor Li. has blown the whistle a few days ago .
A new Virus was isolated at Jan 7th .
That is the moment you know : it IS a new Virus .
What you do NOT have is :
- testing kits ;
- medicine/vaccine ;
What you do NOT know is : how does it transmit ? How contagious is it ? How deadly is it ?
You can not even reliably diagonse it, since the symptoms are so common with other diseases .
What you do know is : you do need to contain it .
Scenario : You immediately inform the general public, and the World, about the emergence of a new, unknown Virus of unknown contagiousness and deadliness, for which you do not have a vaccine, or effective medicine . What happens ?
PCR testing kit gets developed ( 1st in the World ) at Charite in Berlin, Jan. 16 2020 . From here on out, you know you have a chance to contain/mitigate .
Would you still think you would have that Chance if everyone and anyone who had the Chance had left the City in a monnumental Panic during the last 2, 3 weeks?
I am fully aware that this is extremely controversial . All I am trying here is to look at what happened from a standpoint of "What if it was not malfeasance by the CCP that lead to their handling of the Situation ?" .
I will be gratefull for any information, or argument, that doubts or questions the above . I am not interested in being right here, I am also not interested in absolving anyone . I am interested in "What happened ? How did it happen ? Why did it happen ?"
edit: text in Italics
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I'm not getting involved in the China-virus debate beyond this: When a country is patently transitioning from merely an authoritarian society to high tech, machine learning, digital totalitarianism, I think healthy scepticism about any public statements, policies & motives is to be advised...& let's not even get into their treatment of Tibet & the Muslim population.
In response to someone who mentioned the "profit motive" - the motive is not profit for the Chinese, it is the perpetuation of the regime ie stability & possibly long-term imperialism (see Africa influence). That is it!
I've already said too much...this sort of thing goes on my record. Yes, China actually has a 'Oceania-type' or 'Black Mirror' citizen ratings, the Social Credit System, just to up the ante in the paranoia stakes!
I'm ooot the nooo; serial-googler & pseudo-expert, Ian Skippy will be along in a minute - yawn!
Deleted member 38366
D
And some more realistic perspective :
If life continued "as normal" full of blissful ignorance? Global deaths to COVID19 would outnumber all those figures by two full orders of magnitude.
And as opposed to other mentioned deaths, not even a full year needed. A few months at best.
For Germany alone, the official "containment failure" scenario by our leading Virology scientists reads (only large gatherings of people prohibited, no other countermeasures taken) : in excess of 1 Million fatalities for this country alone (83M Pop).
Despite top-notch healthcare and a very high per-capita ICU ratio.
So place a few dots below "Hunger" and then imagine some high 9-digit figure and put the label "SARS-Cov2 - containment failure" next to it.
That's the difference between a normal human society issue or disease.... and a CAT 4 Biohazard roaming free.
Yeah, that puts things into perspective. It's about time people "get it", although it'll come eventually all by itself. The hard way, as usual.
Germany's numbers continue to amaze. I'm still not clear on how much of that is the quality of their health care system and how much is simply down to a healthier overall group of people that make up the nearly 72k cases with only 775 fatalities. My money is on the overall health of the population, as there's no way they've had over 70,000 people in ICU beds.
![[VR] optimal_909](https://forums-cdn.zaonce.net/data/avatars/m/109/109067.jpg?1553781733){kind=avatar}
In retrospective, I think it will be an interesting statistic to see a possible decrease of death rate the next few years. If it is true that mainly 80+ people with underlying health issues are dying, it is reasonable to assume these people are just being 'tipped over' by the virus, i.e. most of them would die in a few years anyway.
Edit: Just read this on Bloomberg:
Italy has posed a conundrum in the coronavirus pandemic: How could a country with just 60 million inhabitants rack up more deaths than any other nation in the world?
One possible clue to the answer lies in what would have been good news in any other year: The 2019-2020 flu season killed fewer older Italians than average, according to a report by the Italian Ministry of Health.
Elderly people and those with chronic diseases who were spared death by the flu from November through January then became an outsize target for the new virus in February and March.
Fewer flu deaths “led to an increase in the pool of the most vulnerable,” according to the report, which analyzed data from 19 Italian cities through March 21. Those Italians found themselves exposed to Covid-19 starting from the end of February, and that may have increased the impact of the epidemic on the elderly.
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Deleted member 38366
D
The "black wave" is just beginning to run in here, as it trails the "leading wave" (Infected persons) by upto 3 weeks or more due to often long ICU times before dying.
That's why we're now seeing the deaths coming in at a higher rate. No doubt we'll soon see 4-digit death count and daily 3-digit additions for a while.
Alot of it right now is still part of the pre-lockdown phase, so maybe in a few weeks from now the rate will (hopefully) slow down in line with the currently slowing number of additional infected per day.
( RKI Statement 31 Mar 2020, Google Translated )
The 1 Billion Euro Question is : at which rate will the reported Infections progress in about 1-2 weeks? That'll show the effectiveness of the current (soft) Lockdown restrictions.
AFAIK the German government is looking for a t=10.0 (double every 10 Days or slower) as a desirable Target Rate right now.
All future decisions apparently will be based on achieving that or not and how well the Healthcare System is dealing with it at that time.
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I'd still like to know how much this has impacted the total avg. deaths per day on a global basis.
Is this really Armegedon?
EDIT: It will also take some time to assess the impact on driving fatalities which should go down and drug abuse which could go up. Nothing happens in a vacuum. Apparently the economic stress may increase the suicide rate as well. The overall impact of this event may yield some totally unexpected result which may not all be negative. Rational assessment over the duration without hyperbolic conjecture will be needed and likely won't get reported unless it fits the PC narrative.
Is this really Armegedon?
EDIT: It will also take some time to assess the impact on driving fatalities which should go down and drug abuse which could go up. Nothing happens in a vacuum. Apparently the economic stress may increase the suicide rate as well. The overall impact of this event may yield some totally unexpected result which may not all be negative. Rational assessment over the duration without hyperbolic conjecture will be needed and likely won't get reported unless it fits the PC narrative.
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But the question remains, did we shift cause of death or did the event actually impact global death rates. If driving bans saved more lives than the virus took the net result would be to lower the overall mortality rate. I find it odd that everyone simply looks at this as if it is occurring in a vacuum.
The 80+ demographic is certainly most at risk of a fatal outcome of COVID-19, but they aren't the bulk of deaths, simply because they are a relatively small portion of most populations. More 70-79 year olds are dying, for example, even with about half the mortality rate.
In isolation, COVID-19 may well cull enough elderly and infirm to reduce crude death rate later, but I'm not convinced other sources of mortality won't more than make up for it, especially given the economic damage that will increase strain on populations in the same periods.
Before the pandemic is over, we are also going to see COVID-19 cases displace other needed hospitalizations, while overburdening health services in general, which is likely to indirectly increase the mortality rate of other conditions. Some behavioral changes (less driving, for example) might partially counter act this, but the net result will almost certainly still be worse.
Anyway, the true cost going forward is quite uncertain at this point. I was just pointing out that looking at nothing but total deaths during the opening stages of a pandemic, well before it's peaked, is going to give an overly optimistic perspective of the event as rates of increase aren't revealed without more points of comparison.
About 160k people died yesterday, with about 4k of those officially due to COVID-19. So, thus far it's been pretty light on crude death rate...of course that figure will change as COVID-19 is still spreading and killing at a rapidly increasing pace.
That question will remain until all is said and done and accounted for, but I strongly suspect you'll see a modest spike in global crude death rate for 2020.
The odds of COVID-19 killing fewer people in 2020 than automobiles did in 2019 is looking rather slim at this point, and COVID-19 certainly won't be reducing 2020 auto fatalities to zero.
In any case, auto accidents don't often occur in patterns that overwhelm regional ICU facilities or tie up critical medical equipment for weeks at a time.
I find it odd that you think everyone is looking at this as if it's occurring in a vacuum. A big part of the reason this pandemic is viewed so seriously is because of the pervasive and far reaching tangential effects it's having and will have.
Horrifyingly, my 85 year old father decided to ignore me today, and drive to the city to do "some business."
Immediate cut off. 2 week timer.
No point expressing the emotion on the phone, but I am angry.
There are responsibilities to the people in my house. One of them is immunocompromised. so that takes priority.
That is what I get for fixing the Parkinson's. If he were still immobilized, he'd be miserable but safe.
Immediate cut off. 2 week timer.
No point expressing the emotion on the phone, but I am angry.
There are responsibilities to the people in my house. One of them is immunocompromised. so that takes priority.
That is what I get for fixing the Parkinson's. If he were still immobilized, he'd be miserable but safe.
Religious leaders continue to underperform the Pope, who has responsibly cancelled mass meetings.
www.thedailybeast.com
Dr. Campbell's channel featured the defendant this week. He has a pernicious mix of beliefs, which are a threat to public health. Hopefully we won't get another situation like that South Korean Church disaster.
The problem in India is worse:
www.aljazeera.com
The religious retail business requires a lot of physical crowding, traditionally. We have to adapt.
Another Pastor Is Charged With Defying Coronavirus Lockdown
Tony Spell said he didn’t think his congregation was at risk of being infected because the virus was “politically motivated”.
Dr. Campbell's channel featured the defendant this week. He has a pernicious mix of beliefs, which are a threat to public health. Hopefully we won't get another situation like that South Korean Church disaster.
The problem in India is worse:
India quarantines 15,000 after ‘super-spreader’ dies of virus
Religious leader dies of COVID-19 after preaching in over dozen villages in Punjab state, prompting strict restrictions.
The religious retail business requires a lot of physical crowding, traditionally. We have to adapt.
So does the spring break, Mardi Gras, insert festival of your choice business.
When generosity backfires...
Did the Trump Administration Send 18 Tons of PPE to China in Early 2020?
Critics have questioned the wisdom of exporting to China medical supplies that would soon be vitally needed in the U.S.
www.snopes.com
No good deed goes unpunished.
This is literally going to kill health care frontliners at home. It was a pretty dumb idea, but motivated by altruism and extreme myopia at the time.
It would not be inappropriate for China to dispatch similar aid to NYC, Italy, and Spain in turn, one would think. Considering their manufacturing base makes the stuff, and their crisis is subsided.
You could very well make a good case that stopping things in China was a good plan.
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